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消费回落,生产改善
Haitong Securities International· 2025-10-20 09:00
Consumption - Post-holiday consumption has shown a slight decline, with retail and wholesale automobile sales significantly dropping compared to the previous week, indicating a temporary "vacuum" in market demand after pre-holiday promotions[6] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while the price of Moutai liquor has significantly decreased, reflecting a broader trend of price adjustments in consumer goods[6] - Service consumption has returned to normal levels, with a notable decline in movie attendance and tourism prices, indicating the end of the holiday "pulse" effect[7] Investment - Infrastructure investment has seen a cumulative issuance of special bonds amounting to CNY 3.81 trillion as of October 18, with an additional CNY 133.88 billion issued in October, suggesting a supportive funding environment for infrastructure projects[17] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, with first-tier and third-tier cities experiencing a narrowing of year-on-year declines, while second-tier cities have turned positive[17] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices have decreased by 4.1% month-on-month, while import prices fell by 2.2%, indicating weak demand in non-mainline shipping routes[23] - The Shanghai and Ningbo export container price indices increased by 12.9% and 16.8% respectively, reflecting a recovery in demand for mainline shipping routes post-holiday[23] Production - Most production sectors have shown improvement post-holiday, with coal consumption in coastal provinces increasing, although steel production has seen a mixed performance with some declines in output[26] - The operating rate for asphalt has slightly increased, indicating a gradual recovery in construction activities following the holiday[17] Inventory and Prices - Coal inventories at ports have significantly decreased, while cement inventory ratios have slightly increased, reflecting varying demand across sectors[36] - Consumer prices have shown a slight overall increase, while industrial prices have generally declined, with the PPI for industrial products decreasing by 1.1% month-on-month[38] Liquidity - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of CNY 231.9 billion to maintain liquidity stability, with the dollar index declining by 27 basis points, indicating a stable overall liquidity environment[42]