第三，尽管量的指标回落，但价格指标出现了初步扩张（图）。原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分 别比上月上升3.1和2.1个点，这一则意味着"反内卷"取得了初步效果；二则意味着上游对下游的传导一 定程度上是有效的。前期EPMI实际上也有类似指向，当时我们指出"新能源、节能环保、新能源汽车销 售价格有不同程度上行，反内卷政策升温可能是主要影响变量"。 第四，值得注意的是，企业生产经营活动预期至4个月以来最高，这证实了微观预期更多和名义GDP相 关这样一个基本逻辑。只要量的收缩幅度可控，价格弹性对于企业生产经营活动预期有积极影响。 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 摘要 第一，7月制造业、非制造业PMI双放缓。7月是制造业淡季，过去5年、10年同期环比均值分别 为-0.3、-0.2，今年7月的-0.4个点对应的放缓幅度略大于季节性。 第二，订单放缓幅度略大于生产，显示本轮放缓是从需求向供给传导。订单和生产环比分别为0.8、0.5 个点。从终端需求来看，可能有几个原因：一是耐用品脉冲充分释放后有所减弱，7月前27天乘联会口 径汽车零售环比上月同期下降19%，同比降至9%；二是地产销售近月转弱，7月前30天30城地产成交同 比 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 第五， 建筑业环比走弱。统计局指出"近期部分地区持续高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等不利因素影响"；除此之外， 我们理解和地产销售回款压力传导、财政支出中基建相关分项放缓有关。6月交通运输支出、农林水支出增速 均偏低；除收入端约束外，和同期是特别国债支出大月有关。后续有待于超长期特别国债、政策性金融工具的 带动作用逐步上来。 第六， BCI较6月下行1.6个点，由于BCI在算法上包含同比特征，因此值得重视。从分项来看：（1）BCI"销 售下降、利润上升"的指数分布符合实际GDP放缓、名义GDP改善逻辑；（2）消费品和中间品价格前瞻指数 意外双放缓，前瞻指数反映企业对6个月之后价格的预期，这意味着尽管短期价格反弹，但价格中枢中期上升 的预期尚不巩固；（3）企业融资环境指数走低，这与同处季末之后的4月数据特征上较为相似，信用扩张有 待于进一步形成。BCI与万得全A指数在历史上的走势大致一致，但今年5月之后背离明显（图），可能和同 期股票市场风险偏好驱动特征较强有关。 第七， 7月的EPMI、PMI、BCI指向一致。在中期报告《穿越减速带，布局新均衡》中，我们指出下 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, infrastructure investment in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, but this was a decline of 1 percentage point compared to the first five months, with a slowdown in June being the main contributor to the overall decrease in growth [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment Performance - The infrastructure investment growth rate has slowed down, primarily due to extreme weather and price factors impacting the investment pace [1] - The support from fiscal policies for infrastructure investment has been relatively weaker compared to previous years in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Experts believe that with increased fiscal efforts to stabilize growth in the second half of the year, new major projects will commence, supported by new policy financial tools and other incremental policies, which will help maintain resilience in infrastructure investment growth [1]

Group 1 - The company guarantees that the announcement content does not contain any false records, misleading statements, or major omissions, and assumes legal responsibility for its authenticity, accuracy, and completeness [1] - The announcement includes the new project situation of the company's infrastructure business for the second quarter of 2025, indicating that there may be discrepancies between the operational data and the data disclosed in periodic reports due to various uncertainties [2] - The announcement is made by the board of directors of Greenland Holdings Group Co., Ltd. on July 30, 2025, providing a summary of new projects for the first half of 2025 [2] Group 2 - The new project situation is categorized by business segments and regional segments for both the second quarter and the cumulative data for January to June 2025 [2]

和讯投顾徐梦婧表示，首先我们来看一下盘面，在今天早盘15分钟市场还是缩量的，然后临近10一波跳 水放了一下量，最终成就全天成交量比昨天还放了大几百个亿，在这个位置只要成交量不大幅萎缩，那 接下来应该还是继续震荡。行业方面，今天我们看到机构在PCB光模块和部分创新药上面形成了新的抱 团，同时这些抱团的方向里面有不少都是权重，总市值百亿以上的公司有44只，最近PCB概念里恰恰是 市值越大涨得越好。我们看到下午基建和证券成为带动指数的主要力量，但是这两者也有区别，证券是 因为银行里面的资金出局，进入到了证券，核心逻辑是业绩还合理，而且位置比较低，但是基建板块就 是以水电为轴5的这些前期的拉升，现在处于调整途中的一波中继反弹，那反弹我们觉得是为了吸引更 多的跟风盘向内需方向，昨天有一些消息刺激之后，今天出现了一波高开，但随后就是往下落的走势， 同时在育儿三胎这里，因此我认为现在这个市场可以分为4个部分，首先第一个就是资源和基建的炒作 以及资源建材的对立面，也就是银行保险等高股息红利，还有我们持续网上跟踪最近持续向上拉升的科 技，以及目前为止还在低位的一些内需线，那我们要做的呢就是选择低位板块中受资金关注度比较高的 标 ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 行业研究 《价格法》修正草案征求意见，反内卷政策持续深化落实 ——建材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 周报（7 月 19 日-7 月 25 日） 要点 《价格法》修正草案征求意见，反内卷相关政策持续深化落实。24 年 7 月中央 政治局会议首次提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争以来，相关政策持续深化落实。24 年 12 月中央经济工作会议亦提出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企 业行为；25 年 3 月政府工作报告指明要综合整治"内卷式"竞争；7 月 1 日中 财委第六次会议再次强调，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品 品质，推动落后产能有效退出；在 7 月 16 日-17 日中央企业负责人研讨班上， 国资委提出国资央企要超越内卷竞争维护产业价值；7 月 18 日国新办新闻发布 会上，工信部表示，近期将陆续发布新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大 重点行业稳增长具体工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产 能；在 7 月 23 日-24 日地方国资委负责人研讨班上，国资委强调要带头抵制"内 卷式"竞争，加强重组整合；7 月 24 日《中华人民共和国价格法修 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal performance in the first half of the year, highlighting strong fiscal spending but a general lack of perceived impact on the economy, suggesting a need for targeted policies to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures [5][10][34]. Group 1: Fiscal Strength in the First Half - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate in the first half of the year was 8.9%, exceeding the annual target growth rate of approximately 3.4% to 5.1% [5][18]. - The fiscal strength observed in the first half is considered the strongest since 2022, with historical comparisons showing varied growth rates from 2018 to 2024 [5][18]. Group 2: Perception of Fiscal Impact - Despite strong fiscal spending, the perceived impact on the economy was limited, attributed to insufficient project construction despite rapid government debt issuance [6][10]. - The net financing of government bonds reached 7.69 trillion yuan in the first half, marking a 55.5% progress rate, the highest since 2022 [6][20]. Group 3: Government Debt Structure - The structure of government debt issuance showed a preference for special refinancing bonds (90%) over general bonds and special bonds for project construction, which were lower at 47.5% and 49.1% respectively [7][22]. - The issuance of special bonds for project capital was 191.7 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, but significantly lower than the overall growth of special bonds [7][23]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure Structure - Fiscal expenditure focused on technology and livelihood, with infrastructure spending declining by 5.5% [8][26]. - Public fiscal expenditure growth rates were 9.2% for science and technology, 6.4% for livelihood, and negative for infrastructure [8][26]. Group 5: Credit Expansion and Local Government Actions - Local credit expansion showed a contraction in major provinces, indicating a cautious approach to financing [9][31]. - The reduction in the number of financing platforms was noted, which supports the transformation of these platforms towards more sustainable financing models [9][32]. Group 6: Outlook for the Second Half - The focus for the second half of the year is on incremental policies, with expectations of improved fiscal perception due to new policy tools and project support [10][35]. - Historical patterns suggest that when fiscal revenues fall short, incremental policies are typically introduced to compensate [13][41]. Group 7: June Fiscal Data Review - In June, fiscal revenue showed a slight decline of 0.3%, with tax revenue increasing for three consecutive months, driven by specific sectors like transportation and scientific research [15][46]. - Government fund income growth was notably high at 20.8%, primarily due to increased land sales [15][66].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is facing resistance at the 3600 level, with a critical focus on three key points for potential breakthroughs [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has encountered resistance at 3614, indicating a significant pressure point for future movements [1] - There is a notable divergence in performance among sectors, with technology stocks underperforming compared to the pharmaceutical sector [1] - The market may experience short-term adjustments if financial stocks take the lead, as historical trends suggest limited opportunities for sustained upward momentum [1][2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - A critical support level is identified at 3577; if this level is breached, it may indicate further downward pressure [2] - The concept of "gaps" in stock prices is emphasized, where unfilled gaps may suggest strength, while filled gaps could indicate weakness [4] - The importance of volume in price movements is highlighted, with a warning against trading in low-volume conditions, which may not provide reliable signals [5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to control their drawdowns and avoid excessive risk-taking, particularly in volatile market conditions [3] - The strategy of using technical analysis in conjunction with valuation models is recommended for better investment decisions [3] - Caution is advised against indiscriminate buying during market pullbacks, as this can lead to significant losses [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in market sentiment driven by the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Station project, which has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, and the upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference [1][9] - The A-share market showed strong buying interest, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.76% during the week of July 21 to July 25, 2025 [1][8] - The report indicates a notable "high-low switch" in market behavior, where funds shifted from cyclical stocks to defensive sectors like finance and high-growth "hard technology" tracks, reflecting a transition from "policy expectations" to "industry implementation" [1][2][8] Group 2 - The cyclical sector is experiencing a revival due to two main factors: the clear policy stance against "price war" style competition and the sensitivity of sectors like steel, cement, and photovoltaics to policy benefits, which have led to valuation recovery [2][19] - The report notes a divergence within the cyclical sector, with commodity prices for coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate rising rapidly, while related cyclical stocks show structural differences in performance [2][19] - The report emphasizes that the core path to resolving the "involution" dilemma lies in enhancing economic growth and expanding overall increments, with AI as a key focus area expected to demonstrate resilience amid market fluctuations [3][20] Group 3 - The upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference is expected to focus on AI infrastructure and financial technology, which may accelerate capital expenditures for companies like Tencent and Alibaba Cloud due to the easing of chip supply constraints [4][20] - The report suggests that semiconductor companies should be monitored closely, as demand driven by AI computing and automotive electronics is expected to boost performance, especially with the traditional peak season starting in Q3 [20] - The report indicates that the cyclical market's sustainability faces challenges, including potential discrepancies between policy effectiveness and market expectations, as well as the need for substantial recovery in end-user demand [3][19]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the latest progress regarding the sale of the port assets by Cheung Kong Holdings, which is seeking to invite major strategic investors from mainland China to join the consortium involved in the transaction [1][7] - Cheung Kong Holdings announced that the exclusive negotiation period with a consortium has expired, and discussions are ongoing to modify the consortium's membership and transaction structure to obtain necessary regulatory approvals [1][9] - The company emphasized that no transaction will occur until all relevant regulatory approvals are obtained [1][9] Group 2 - Following the announcement, Cheung Kong Holdings' stock price initially surged over 2% before experiencing a rapid decline [3] - The transaction involves the sale of a 90% stake in a Panamanian port company, which operates two ports, as well as 80% effective control rights in 199 ports across 23 countries [8] - The deal is expected to generate over $19 billion (approximately HKD 148.2 billion) in cash revenue for Cheung Kong Holdings [8]