Group 1: Historical Consumption Trends in the U.S. - From 1960 to 1990, the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) effectively explained consumer behavior, but its validity diminished post-2000 due to financial innovations and external shocks[2] - The average consumption propensity in the U.S. has fluctuated between 85% and 96%, indicating a consumption-driven economy[27] - The financial crisis of 2008 led to a significant drop in consumption propensity, which only began to recover in 2013 but remained below pre-crisis levels[30] Group 2: Factors Influencing Consumption - Tax cuts and financial innovations have historically boosted U.S. consumer propensity, suggesting similar strategies could benefit China amid its aging population[2] - The wealth effect, particularly from real estate, has a dual impact on consumption, with rising home values increasing spending capacity while high mortgage burdens suppress it[61] - Rising rental costs have increased the share of disposable income spent on housing, from under 22% in 2001 to nearly 30% in 2023, further constraining consumer spending[64] Group 3: Policy Implications - U.S. consumption policies, including tax reductions and unemployment benefits, have been crucial in stimulating economic growth during downturns[36] - The expansion of social security and healthcare spending has a positive correlation with consumption propensity, although recent stagnation in these areas may limit future growth[69] - The shift in monetary policy frameworks has led to a greater reliance on current income rather than long-term expectations, affecting consumer behavior[54]