来源：宏观fans哲 芦哲 S0600524110003 占烁 S0600524120005 核心观点 核心观点：今年春节消费有三个特点，一是消费开局强劲，今年春节假期前4天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长8.6%，高于去年的4.1% （去年整个春节假期）。二是春节服务消费内部分化，观影回落、出行强劲。三是返乡消费增长强劲。春节对全年消费有何指示意义？我们认为可能有以 下三方面信号：一是我们预计开年消费将温和复苏，1-2月社零同比增速可能介于去年上半年（5%）和下半年（2.5%）之间，相比去年底1%左右的增速 明显回升。二是从春节实践来看，全年消费可能有更多政策呵护，政策重心从"以旧换新"补贴转向其他方面，如消费贷贴息、有奖发票、支持服务消费、 鼓励优质供给等。三是2026年商品消费可能弱于去年，服务消费成为主要支撑。 春运：历史最多出行人次，节后出行强于节前。截至正月初五，今年春运前20天全国跨区域人员流动达到50.8亿次，创下历史最高水平，较去年同期增长 5.5%。从交通部口径的跨区域人员流动量来看，今年节前15天的日均流量为2.3亿人次，比去年同期高3.2%；而节后5天为3.2亿人次，比去年同 ...

Group 1 - The first key time point is early March during the National People's Congress (NPC), where the annual economic growth target and major policy resource allocations will be clarified, particularly focusing on fiscal funding directions [2] - The second key time point is in mid to late March, when local investment conditions will start to become clear, coinciding with the traditional peak construction season, allowing for assessment of overall investment density and strength through key physical workload indicators [2] - The third key time point is the second quarter, which serves as an important window for observing consumer activity, as specific policy frameworks and benefits will be released following the NPC's direction to enhance consumption rates [3]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - In November 2025, the inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures in the US increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the growth rate of goods consumption reaching its highest level since the second half of 2025[1] - The US industrial output in December showed unexpected growth, and the previously announced annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 was revised upward, marking the highest level in two years[1] - The US economy demonstrates strong endogenous momentum as of the end of 2025, supported by wages and savings despite persistent inflation[1] Group 2: European Economic Conditions - By December 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate in Europe fell below 2%, indicating a continued easing of pressure, primarily driven by labor costs and year-end consumption peaks in the service sector[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current monetary policy stance appropriate but retains flexibility for adjustments[2] - Uncertainties regarding the Greenland issue between major European countries and the US have temporarily decreased, leading to a slight increase in global risk appetite[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - In Q4 2025, China's actual GDP growth rate slowed due to a high base effect, but the annual economic growth target was still met, with a pattern of stronger supply than demand and stronger external demand than internal demand[2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with new policy measures from the central bank likely to stabilize government-led investment projects[2] - The State Council emphasizes improving long-term mechanisms to promote consumption, with new stimulus policies including loan interest subsidies and special guarantee plans being introduced[2] Group 4: Market Risks - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially disrupting market risk appetite due to uncertainties in the global economic and trade landscape[2] - Economic and policy changes exceeding expectations could lead to adjustments in related policies as the domestic economy undergoes a transformation[2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The document does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 19, 2026, and the overall trend in January 2026. Some futures are expected to reach new highs [1][2][4]. - It also presents a series of macro - news and their potential impacts on the futures market, such as policy changes and trade agreements [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Trend Forecast - **January 19, 2026 Forecast**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to oscillate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2603 is likely to oscillate strongly, and TL2603 is expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][41][46]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: AU2604 and AG2604 are expected to oscillate strongly and may reach new highs. PT2606 and PD2606 are likely to oscillate strongly [2][48][52]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Some, like CU2603 and AL2603, are expected to oscillate strongly, while others, such as ZN2603 and NI2602, may oscillate weakly [2][67][73]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Some futures, including JM2605 and FG605, are expected to oscillate strongly, and others, like RB2605 and I2605, may oscillate weakly [2][101][108]. - **January 2026 Forecast**: - Stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM continuous contracts) are expected to oscillate strongly. Some may reach new highs [4]. - Gold, silver, copper, and other futures continuous contracts are expected to oscillate strongly, with some reaching new highs [4][5]. 3.2 Macro - news and Their Impacts - **Domestic News**: - The State Council promotes consumption - boosting measures, and the SFC strengthens market regulation and promotes reform [6][7]. - The central bank adjusts the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans and cuts re - loan and re - discount rates [7][8]. - The total social electricity consumption in China in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion kWh [9]. - **International News**: - Canada and China reach an economic and trade cooperation agreement, and the EU may impose tariffs on US goods [6][11]. - The US Federal Reserve officials express their views on interest rates and economic growth [10]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts trading limits for silver and nickel futures contracts [13]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center revises the container shipping index (European line) futures standard contract [13]. - On January 16, international precious metal futures generally declined, while crude oil futures rose, and London base metals fell [13][14].

Macroeconomic Overview - December PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating expectations for policy support in the coming year, particularly in the construction sector[2] - December CPI and PPI were 0.8% and -1.9% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - The first batch of special government bonds for 2026, amounting to 62.5 billion yuan, was issued earlier than in 2025, supporting consumer policies[2] Financial Market Performance - From December 29, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the equity market saw a significant increase, with daily trading volume averaging 25,806 billion yuan, up 6,154 billion yuan from the previous period[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.79%[2] Fixed Income Market - Bond yields rose overall during the same period, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 5.1 basis points[2] - The central bank's net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan contributed to a stable and loose funding environment[2] International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%[2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.12%, and oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected fundamentals, slower-than-anticipated reserve requirement ratio cuts, and renewed inflation pressures in the U.S.[2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual CPI remaining stable compared to the previous year [1][2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% [4][6] - The month-on-month PPI increase was influenced by improved supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand increases in certain industries, such as coal and gas production [4][5] - Input factors led to a divergence in price trends for domestic non-ferrous metals and oil-related industries, with non-ferrous metal prices rising due to international price increases, while oil-related prices fell due to declining international oil prices [5][6]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 Index fell by 0.3%, the ChiNext Growth Index decreased by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.7% at the close [1] - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market still has upward potential before the Spring Festival, with short-term opportunities for low-position layouts [1] - Major risk factors that previously constrained the market have significantly weakened, leading to a sustained high level of risk appetite [1] Group 2 - External concerns regarding tightening global liquidity and the high valuation pullback of the AI sector in the US have eased [1] - The timing of the Spring Festival is later this year, and the close timing of the Two Sessions after the festival creates a favorable environment for optimistic expectations regarding consumption policies [1] - The current market sentiment is in a "non-falsifiable" period before the Two Sessions, which supports a generally high level of risk appetite [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference indicates a moderate approach to economic stabilization rather than strong stimulus, focusing on maintaining growth levels and alleviating deflationary pressures without significant policy shifts [3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit, including both explicit and implicit components, is set to remain at levels similar to 2025, with an emphasis on front-loading expenditures, particularly in infrastructure such as urban renewal and green transformation projects [4]. - There is potential for an additional fiscal space equivalent to 0.5% of GDP if conditions in real estate, prices, and employment improve in the first half of the year [5]. Monetary Policy - The actual space for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is limited, with a focus on structural tools and quasi-fiscal measures, suggesting a possible reduction of 10-20 basis points throughout the year [5]. Real Estate Policy - Support measures for real estate, such as subsidizing mortgage rates, may not materialize until after the national two sessions, with details expected in the second quarter of 2026 [5]. - A broad and sustained subsidy for mortgage rates could stabilize market expectations and break the negative feedback loop of falling housing prices and credit contraction [6][9]. Consumption Policy - The continuation of the national subsidy for replacing old with new products is expected, with adjustments in scale and coverage, but there is uncertainty about significant support for service sector consumption [6]. - Direct subsidies for consumer spending, particularly in the service sector, may take longer to implement, potentially not appearing until the second half of the year [6]. Export Outlook - Despite concerns about export reliance, China's share of global exports is projected to increase from 15% to 16-17% over the next five years, with growth rates expected to outpace global trade growth [7]. - The shift towards "de-China-ization" is seen as a trade chain extension rather than a reduction in China's market share, with Chinese enterprises maintaining a competitive edge in high-value sectors [7][8]. Talent and Innovation - China produces approximately 11 million university graduates annually, with a significant portion in engineering and technology fields, contributing to its competitive advantage in key sectors [8]. - The global supply chain is evolving towards multi-polarity but remains reliant on Chinese enterprises, indicating a robust position for China in the global market [8]. Economic Transition - There is a call for a shift towards consumption-driven growth in 2026, emphasizing social security improvements and support for farmers and migrant workers to enhance consumer capacity [8]. - A broader focus on supporting service sector consumption through subsidies and vouchers is recommended to stimulate economic activity [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding the Chinese stock market, expecting a high single-digit growth in the index for the year 2026 [3][12]. Core Insights - The nominal GDP growth expectation for China is around 4%, slightly below market consensus, with a focus on moderate fiscal policies emphasizing infrastructure investment [1][2]. - The report highlights China's first-mover advantage in emerging industries such as technology, batteries, electric vehicles, robotics, and photovoltaics, projecting an increase in global export market share from 15% to 16%-17% [1][5]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to implement two additional rate cuts in early 2026, contributing to a relatively loose liquidity environment that favors risk assets [1][9]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The overall macroeconomic policy for China in 2026 is characterized as moderately supportive rather than aggressively stimulative, aiming to stabilize current growth levels and alleviate deflationary pressures [2][3]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to be moderate but may be front-loaded in the first half of the year, focusing on infrastructure investments such as urban renewal and AI computing centers [3][15]. - Monetary policy will emphasize structural tools with limited room for interest rate cuts, projected to be between 10-20 basis points for the year [3][15]. Real Estate and Consumption Policies - Specific measures in the real estate sector include potential mortgage rate subsidies expected to be detailed after the 2025 Two Sessions, aimed at stabilizing market expectations [4][17]. - Consumption policies will continue to support trade-in programs and explore service sector consumption subsidies, with implementation anticipated in the second half of 2026 [4][17]. Industry Competition and Export Outlook - The competitive landscape for China's industries remains strong, particularly in high-growth sectors like electric vehicles and robotics, with an expected increase in export market share [5][20]. - Despite global trade protectionism, China's export market share is projected to rise, supported by a large pool of engineering graduates and a strong manufacturing base [5][20]. Economic Challenges and Future Vision - Current economic conditions show a slight recovery in market confidence, but challenges remain in addressing consumer spending and social welfare issues [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the need for gradual policy adjustments and feedback collection from market participants to ensure effective implementation of proposed economic measures [7][25].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai liquor has significantly increased, with the price for the 2025 Flying Moutai rising to 1580 yuan per bottle on December 13, after multiple price adjustments throughout the day. This surge is attributed to potential changes in the company's strategy for 2026, particularly regarding dealer policies and product distribution [1][2]. Company Insights - Moutai's price for the 2025 Flying Moutai rose from 1490 yuan per bottle on December 12 to 1580 yuan by the evening of December 13, indicating a strong upward trend in pricing [1][2]. - The company has indicated that its product distribution will depend on market capacity and aims to maintain channel resilience and market stability [1][3]. - Moutai plans to manage production capacity carefully, with a focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals without compromising market principles [2][3]. Industry Trends - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption include a plan to enhance the supply-demand match for consumer goods, which may positively impact the liquor industry [4]. - Analysts suggest that the liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with expectations of a weak recovery in demand as policy pressures ease [5]. - The liquor sector is currently at a low valuation, with clear signals of a bottoming out, making it an attractive opportunity for investment [5].