Core Viewpoint - The global economy is characterized by "low growth and high volatility," with increasing debt levels and persistent inflation, leading to a complex and challenging economic environment [5][6]. Group 1: Global Debt Issues - The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global public debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 95.1% and may rise to 99.6% by 2030, with developed countries like Japan exceeding 250% and the U.S. around 125% [9]. - The increase in government debt is linked to historical events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced governments to leverage debt to maintain stability [9][11]. - The debt cycle varies across sectors, with corporate debt being the shortest, human life cycles being medium, and national debt cycles being the longest due to government credit [9][10]. Group 2: China's Debt Landscape - China's debt situation differs from Western countries, with a central government leverage ratio of only 25%, but local government debt pressures are rising significantly [15]. - The macro leverage ratio, including hidden debts, is approaching 300%, surpassing the average levels of Western nations, indicating a need for caution [15][16]. - The debt issue in China is closely tied to its economic growth model, where investment contributes over 40% to GDP, leading to a cycle of "investment-debt" [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook for 2025 - The Chinese economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, with export data performing well and consumption boosted by a 300 billion yuan policy [21][22]. - However, there are concerns about economic downward pressure in the second half, with investment growth slowing and real estate investment declining [22][23]. - Recommendations for policy adjustments include expanding consumption policies to benefit lower-income groups and enhancing social security to support human capital development [23][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold has been a strong performer, reflecting deep changes in the global economic landscape, and is seen as a suitable hedge in a high-volatility, low-growth environment [21][24]. - The capital market is expected to find balance, with A-shares potentially outperforming due to reasonable valuations and improving investor sentiment [23][24].

证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 08 月 16 日 供需双承压，但债市仍谨慎 债 券 策 略 相关研究 债 券 研 究 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com ——7 月经济数据点评 ⚫ 消费于今年 5-6 月触顶后持续走弱，促消费相关政策加码效果等待验证。 2025 年 1-7 月社零累计同比增速 4.8%，较 1-6 月下行 0.2pcts; 其中餐饮 零售拖累较大，2025 年 1-7 月餐饮累计同比增速 3.8%，较 1-6 月下行 0.5pcts。我们此前提示 2025 年消费走强更多源于政策补贴，尚未形成居民 收入和消费的良性循环，原因在于 2025 年至今居民新增短贷不强，居民消 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The remarks of Besent suggesting a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted the US stocks, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting new highs. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with recent days but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term washing behavior, but the overall upward channel pattern is maintained. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the layout opportunities during the pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Consumption Policy Advancement**: Domestically, from January to July this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial coordination to support and boost consumption and will form a "combination punch" with policies such as subsidies for trading in old consumer goods for new ones. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary Besent issued the clearest call for interest rate cuts so far, asking the Federal Reserve to immediately start a new round of interest rate cut cycles and stating that US interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current level. He believes that the Federal Reserve may start interest rate cuts earlier, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Shanghai Composite Index Uptrend**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices fluctuated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3683.46 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose. The communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the gains, while the banking, coal, and food and beverage industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan on that day. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.04% to close at 44922.27 points [1]. - **Futures Index Position Reduction**: In the futures market, in terms of basis, the current - month futures index contract will be delivered on Friday, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of the IH contract increased, while the open interest of stock index futures decreased [2]. 2. Strategy - The remarks of Besent about a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted US stocks. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume increased significantly but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term adjustments, but the overall upward trend remains. Investors are advised to look for opportunities during pullbacks [3]. 3. Charts Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][11]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48% from the previous day; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.36, up 1.76%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2496.50, up 3.62%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4176.58, up 0.79%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.98, up 0.61%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6508.10, up 1.40%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7064.33, up 1.45% [14]. - Also includes charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][15]. Futures Index Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract was 126774, an increase of 23189, and the open interest was 266298, an increase of 10150 [16]. - **Basis**: The basis data of the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are given. For example, the current - month contract basis of the IF contract was 4.62, an increase of 4.05 [41]. - **Inter - temporal Spread**: The inter - temporal spread data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of the IF contract was - 10.40, an increase of 2.80 [46]. - Also includes charts related to open interest, open interest ratio, and foreign capital net positions of each contract [6].

Market Overview - The market indices mostly declined, with the CSI 100 experiencing a significant drop of -2.15%[28] - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index decreased to 18,096.34 billion CNY, down from 18,486.97 billion CNY, indicating a historical high position at the 93.40% percentile over the past three years[43][46] Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 conveyed a more optimistic economic outlook, emphasizing "steady progress" and the need for proactive fiscal policies[11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, focusing on long-term competitiveness rather than short-term stability[11] Sector Performance - The healthcare index and information technology index showed relative strength, with weekly gains of 2.65% and 0.71%, respectively[31] - The real estate index and energy index underperformed, with declines of -3.57% and -3.49% respectively[31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining investment in technology sectors (AI, robotics) and utility sectors, as well as brokerage firms, reflecting a shift from cyclical to innovation-driven market dynamics[18][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience and challenges of the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for proactive policies to address potential downturns and maintain stability [2][13]. Group 1: Real Estate Market - The real estate market has likely passed its most dangerous phase, with a soft landing expected, despite concerns about its impact on the macro economy [3][5]. - The contribution of real estate to GDP has significantly decreased, projected to be around 13 trillion yuan, or 9.6% of GDP in 2024, down from approximately 14.5% in previous years [3]. - The "gray rhino" effect, particularly regarding debt repayment issues faced by companies like Vanke, has not worsened as anticipated, with liquidity issues being managed through asset disposal rather than relying solely on sales [4][5]. Group 2: Export Challenges - Exports are expected to face challenges in the second half, but fears of a drastic decline may underestimate China's export resilience and overestimate the "export rush" effect [6][7]. - The "export rush" phenomenon contributed an estimated 3-10 percentage points to the 7.2% year-on-year export growth in the first half, but its overall impact may be less significant than previously thought [6]. - The potential for a "cliff-like" drop in exports is unlikely, as negotiations regarding tariffs and trade with the U.S. have shown some signs of resolution, and there is growth potential in exports to regions like Latin America and ASEAN [7]. Group 3: Consumption Policies - Expanding consumption is a strategic focus, with ongoing policies expected to support a trend towards increased consumer spending [8][10]. - The "old-for-new" policy has shown positive results, driving sales of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan and boosting retail sales growth by nearly 2 percentage points [9]. - The remaining fiscal funds for consumption policies are projected to leverage around 1.1 trillion yuan in sales, with a broader range of policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending capacity and addressing supply constraints [9][10]. Group 4: Price Effects and Economic Stability - Addressing low price effects is a core focus of current policies, with attention on macro debt rates, profit margins, and cost trends [11]. - Despite some improvements in technology and industry upgrades, profit levels have not improved sufficiently, leading to concerns about the "involution" issue affecting pricing [11]. - The negative growth of the GDP deflator index highlights the need for macro policy responses to prevent accelerated economic contraction [11][12].

Report Title - Fixed Income Weekly Report (2025/07/14 - 2025/07/18) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The bond market has been in a volatile and weak pattern recently, with the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuating narrowly around 1.65%. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, which is expected to continue the policy tone of "stabilizing growth, employment, and prices", but the probability of large-scale stimulus is low [6]. - The stock-bond seesaw effect has significantly strengthened recently, and the trend of the equity market has become a key marginal driving factor for the bond market. The central bank maintains a precise regulatory approach of "smoothing peaks and filling valleys". In the future, due to factors such as the increased supply of government bonds, the central bank may continue refined regulation, and the capital market will maintain a stable and slightly tight pattern [7]. - In terms of operation strategy, it is recommended to maintain a trading mindset. The 10-year Treasury yield above 1.70% can be considered an attractive allocation area, and 1.80% is a strong upper pressure limit. In the short term, the market may remain volatile, and investors should wait patiently and focus on the equity market trend, the actual intensity of the central bank's liquidity operations, and the policy signals released by the Politburo meeting [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One-week View - The Politburo meeting in July is expected to continue the policy direction of "stabilizing growth, employment, and prices", but the probability of large-scale strong stimulus is low. Fiscal policy may focus on implementing existing policies, real estate policy may optimize purchase and sale restrictions, consumption policy may continue trade-in subsidies, and "anti-involution" policies may drive the recovery of PPI [6]. - The stock-bond seesaw effect has strengthened, and the equity market trend is a key factor for the bond market. The central bank maintains precise regulation, and the capital market will remain stable and slightly tight. It is recommended to maintain a trading mindset and wait for opportunities [7]. 2. Weekly Bond Market Review - On July 14, macro data and capital market disturbances led to bond market fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield first rose and then fell due to factors such as export data, equity market strength, and central bank operations [8]. - On July 15, the divergence of economic data and the failure of policy expectations dominated the market. The 10-year Treasury yield declined as the central city work conference did not release unexpected policy signals [8][9]. - On July 16, the tight balance of the capital market restricted the bond market performance, and the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated narrowly [9]. - On July 17, the stock-bond seesaw effect was evident. The bond market was under pressure due to the strength of the equity market and high capital prices [9]. - On July 18, policy expectations caused market fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield first rose and then returned to normal as the market interpreted the central bank's bond repurchase new regulations [9]. 3. Treasury and CDB Bond Yields - Most Treasury and CDB bond yields declined. As of July 18, the 1-year Treasury yield decreased by 2.12bp to 1.3490%, and the 10-year decreased by 0.01bp to 1.6652%. The 1-year CDB bond yield decreased by 1.57bp to 1.4789%, and the 10-year decreased by 0.05bp to 1.7171% [3][10]. - The key term spreads of Treasury and CDB bonds generally widened. The 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds widened by 2.11bp to 31.62bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.45bp to 22.33bp. The 10Y - 1Y spread of CDB bonds widened by 1.52bp to 23.82bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 0.20bp to 31.00bp [3][14][15]. 4. Liquidity Tracking 4.1 Funding: Central Bank Net Injection, Slight Increase in Funding Rate Center - From July 14 to July 18, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 12,011.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 17,268.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 4,257.00 billion yuan maturing. The MLF had a net withdrawal of 1,000.00 billion yuan. Next week, 17,268.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with a larger maturity volume than the previous week [16][17]. - Due to the tax period, funding prices increased. R001 rose by 8.43bp to 1.4881%, R007 rose by 1.21bp to 1.5329%, and DR007 rose by 2.78bp to 1.5223%, remaining higher than the OMO7D rate. The R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, indicating a缓解 of the funding stratification phenomenon [17]. - The FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y term spread turned positive for the first time this year, suggesting a缓解 of the market's expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts [17]. 4.2 Bond Supply: Total Issuance and Net Financing Decreased - From July 14 to July 18, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, and the net financing amount decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance scale was 7,078.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,139.07 billion yuan from the previous week. The total repayment scale was 5,597.60 billion yuan, an increase of 2,249.89 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 1,480.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,388.96 billion yuan from the previous week [3][35]. - The issuance scale of government bonds decreased, and the net financing amount decreased. Treasury bond net financing was 581.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,349.90 billion yuan from the previous week, while local government bond net financing was 1,504.99 billion yuan, an increase of 402.70 billion yuan from the previous week [3][36][37]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, the net financing amount increased, and the issuance interest rate rose. The total issuance was 9,471.80 billion yuan, an increase of 5,207.50 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing amount was 1,443.70 billion yuan, an increase of 2,284.60 billion yuan from the previous week [38]. 5. Global Asset Class Observation - The US dollar index continued to rise, and precious metals and crude oil prices all declined. The long - term US Treasury yield increased, and the term spread widened. The 10Y/30Y yields increased by 1/4bp to 4.44%/5.00% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread widened by 3bp to 56bp [3][50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.62% to 98.4712, and the US dollar - RMB central parity rate slightly increased by 0.03% to 7.1498. Gold fell 0.31% to 3,349.40 US dollars per ounce, silver fell 1.75% to 38.25 US dollars per ounce, WTI crude oil fell 1.95% to 67.33 US dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 1.98% to 69.23 US dollars per barrel [3][50][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Domestic Macro Policy - New reserve policies will be gradually implemented to mitigate external shocks and promote sustainable economic growth[2] - The proportion of labor remuneration in the "work-for-relief" program will increase from over 30% to over 40% to boost local employment[8] - The central bank suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments to lower overall financing costs and stabilize the foreign exchange market[11] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies focus on managing technology enterprise incubators and ensuring safety in the new energy vehicle sector, prohibiting "involution" competition among manufacturers[8] - The government plans to issue 500 billion yuan in loans for service consumption and elderly care to stimulate consumption[14] Financial Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is promoting the establishment of a growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to lower the listing threshold for unprofitable companies[18] Trade Relations - China and the U.S. have confirmed details of the London Framework, with China approving certain controlled item export applications and the U.S. planning to lift some restrictions[20] Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, with a projected GDP growth of 1.4% for 2025 and an inflation expectation of 3%[22] - There is an increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with discussions on the impact of tariffs on inflation[22] Market Trends - Major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, saw increases of 3.44% and 4.25% respectively over the past week[25] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 14.05% to $67.77 per barrel, while gold prices decreased by 2.79% to $3,269.20 per ounce[25]

Group 1: Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook - The domestic macroeconomic environment is expected to continue the weak recovery trend observed in the first half of the year [3] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to maintain strong performance in the second half, with equipment purchase growth supported by policies exceeding 15% year-on-year, particularly in manufacturing investment [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to show over 10% high growth, playing a counter-cyclical role [4] - External trade may weaken but is expected to contribute positively to the economy, with a trade surplus increase of $135.6 billion year-on-year from January to May 2025 [9] - Consumption growth is projected to improve compared to 2024, driven by increased public fiscal spending and government consumption [11][13] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization in some first-tier cities, despite overall weakness in the sector [14] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - After a period of adjustment, bond market yields have once again declined, with a cautious outlook for the future [19] - The 10-year government bond yield has been hovering around 1.60%, with significant adjustments due to rising funding costs and a negative carry phenomenon [20][22] - The current monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts exceeding 30 basis points in 2025 [27] Group 3: Stock Market Insights - The stock market has successfully formed a bottom, with a notable wealth effect observed post-Spring Festival, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [28] - The A-share market has shown resilience during downturns, maintaining a solid bottom [34] - Following the tariff adjustments, the stock market has experienced a second wave of growth, with sectors such as comprehensive finance and communication leading the way [44] Group 4: U.S. Economic and Market Conditions - The U.S. inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's target, with the CPI year-on-year growth at 2.4% as of May 2025 [50] - The U.S. job market remains stable, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations [56] - The U.S. debt ceiling has been breached, with ongoing negotiations in Congress to address the issue [63][65] - The U.S. capital markets are experiencing significant volatility, with a notable weakening of the U.S. dollar and a strengthening of gold as a safe-haven asset [69][81]

Group 1: Historical Consumption Trends in the U.S. - From 1960 to 1990, the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) effectively explained consumer behavior, but its validity diminished post-2000 due to financial innovations and external shocks[2] - The average consumption propensity in the U.S. has fluctuated between 85% and 96%, indicating a consumption-driven economy[27] - The financial crisis of 2008 led to a significant drop in consumption propensity, which only began to recover in 2013 but remained below pre-crisis levels[30] Group 2: Factors Influencing Consumption - Tax cuts and financial innovations have historically boosted U.S. consumer propensity, suggesting similar strategies could benefit China amid its aging population[2] - The wealth effect, particularly from real estate, has a dual impact on consumption, with rising home values increasing spending capacity while high mortgage burdens suppress it[61] - Rising rental costs have increased the share of disposable income spent on housing, from under 22% in 2001 to nearly 30% in 2023, further constraining consumer spending[64] Group 3: Policy Implications - U.S. consumption policies, including tax reductions and unemployment benefits, have been crucial in stimulating economic growth during downturns[36] - The expansion of social security and healthcare spending has a positive correlation with consumption propensity, although recent stagnation in these areas may limit future growth[69] - The shift in monetary policy frameworks has led to a greater reliance on current income rather than long-term expectations, affecting consumer behavior[54]