1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of corn is driven by the concentrated release of replenishment demand at the consumption end due to the tight supply in the front - end trade link. In the long - term, attention should be paid to import and domestic storage auction policies [2]. - The price of starch will remain strong in the short - term due to limited raw material supply. In the long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - The international sugar market's fundamentals have marginally strengthened, and the domestic market is oscillating strongly. There is hedging pressure above the futures price [6]. - Cotton demand is expected to continue to improve, and it is suitable for long - term long positions [8]. - For eggs, the supply pressure is postponed due to farmers' active delayed culling, and the 05 and 06 contracts are recommended to be treated in a reverse spread pattern [12]. - The apple market shows a pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi has risen slightly, while the Shandong area is stable [15]. - The short - term supply of live pigs is still loose, with limited capacity reduction and pressure in the medium - term. Futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to the expected difference [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230, while the price in other regions had some fluctuations. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang also changed slightly. The basis and processing profit of corn and starch also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the corn price is driven by supply - demand mismatch. In the long - term, import and storage auction policies are important. The starch price will be strong in the short - term due to raw material supply constraints, and downstream consumption is crucial in the long - term [2][3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming changed. The basis, import profit, and the number of warehouse receipts also had corresponding changes [6]. - **Analysis**: The international sugar market's fundamentals have strengthened, and the domestic market is affected by import policy discussions and hedging pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton, import M - grade US cotton, and other related data such as import profit, warehouse receipts + forecasts, and yarn prices changed [16]. - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve due to factors such as expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promotion policies. It is suitable for long - term long positions [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the egg prices in different producing areas remained relatively stable, and the basis and prices of substitute products also had some changes [12]. - **Analysis**: The slowdown of chicken culling means the supply pressure is postponed. Due to the high premium of 05 and 06 contracts, a reverse spread pattern is recommended [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900, and the basis of different contracts changed. The national apple inventory decreased [14][15]. - **Analysis**: The apple market shows a pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi has risen, and the sales in the consumer market are slow [15]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 11 to March 17, 2026, the live pig prices in different producing areas had some fluctuations, and the basis also changed [15]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply is loose, with limited capacity reduction. Futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to the expected difference [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short term, the supply in the front - end trading link is tight, and the concentrated release of replenishment demand in the consumer end drives the price up. The current price fluctuation is dominated by short - term supply - demand mismatch. In the long term, pay attention to import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [3]. - **Starch**: This week, the increase in raw material costs drives up the starch price. In the short term, both supply and demand are recovering. In the long term, focus on the downstream consumption rhythm and whether the enterprise inventory will continue to decline after the seasonal peak [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the fundamentals are slightly stronger with India's production cut and ISO's reduction of the global surplus forecast. Crude oil price increase may boost the raw sugar price. Domestically, the market is discussing import policies, with low additional - quota import costs and high spot pressure [6]. - **Cotton**: The low initial inventory offsets most of the output increase. With expanding domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promoting policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. The reduction of Xinjiang's planting area in the new season makes cotton suitable for long - term investment [7]. - **Eggs**: The slowdown of chicken culling may be an active decision by farmers, which postpones the supply pressure. Rising feed costs compress the profit margin. Considering the basis structure of 05 and 06 contracts, a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. - **Apples**: The shipping situation in apple - producing areas varies, with the west stronger than the east. In the west, the price of high - quality goods rises, while in the east, the overall shipment is average. The sales in the sales area are stable after the festival, but the arrival volume is low and the shipping slows down [11]. - **Pigs**: The spot market is weakly adjusted. Group supply is abundant, consumption is weak, and capacity reduction is limited. Pay attention to factors such as the change of farmers' selling weight, the expectation of second - fattening, and frozen product storage [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230, while in other regions, there were slight changes. The basis of corn increased by 14, and the import profit increased by 28. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang increased by 50, and the basis increased by 50, and the processing profit increased by 17 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and long - term focus is on policies. For starch, short - term supply and demand are both recovering, and long - term focus is on downstream consumption [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 90, 80, and 50 respectively. The basis decreased by 63, and the import profit decreased [5]. - **Analysis**: International fundamentals are stronger, and domestic market is affected by import policy discussions, with high spot pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5. The import profit and other data also had certain changes [7]. - **Analysis**: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make cotton suitable for long - term investment [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the egg prices in some regions increased slightly, the basis increased by 105, and the prices of substitutes had some changes [9]. - **Analysis**: Slow chicken culling postpones supply pressure, and a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: The spot prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade and Shaanxi 70 general goods remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 22, and the inventories in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased [10][11]. - **Analysis**: Shipping situation varies between the east and the west, and the sales in the sales area are stable but slow [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 20 [11]. - **Analysis**: Spot market is weakly adjusted, and pay attention to factors affecting the price rhythm [11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the economic outlook and policy adjustments for China in 2026, focusing on GDP growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and consumption trends. Core Points and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for 2026 has been adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5%, with an expected actual growth rate of approximately 4.8%-4.9% [1][4] 2. **Fiscal Policy Changes**: The total fiscal scale is set at 11.89 trillion, with a deficit increasing to 5.89 trillion. The structure of fiscal tools has changed, including an increase in policy financial instruments by 300 billion [1][4] 3. **Monetary Policy Shift**: The monetary policy has shifted from "promoting a decrease" to "facilitating low-level operation," indicating a reduced probability of total quantitative easing. A decrease in interest rates of about 10 basis points is expected, with a reserve requirement ratio cut potential of around 50 basis points [1][5] 4. **Consumption Policy**: The focus has shifted to "demand activation," with a reduction in the old-for-new subsidy to 250 billion and the introduction of 1,000 billion in special funds for service industry interest subsidies [1][9] 5. **Investment Trends**: Investment uncertainty remains high, but a rebound in fixed asset investment growth is anticipated in Q1 2026, expected to return to a positive range of 2%-3% [2][3] 6. **Consumer Spending**: Consumer spending is projected to grow at a rate of 4%-5%, with service consumption showing strength, while some durable goods categories remain weak [2][3] 7. **Green Development Goals**: The green development indicators have shifted from "energy consumption control" to "carbon emission control," with a target of a 3.8% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP for 2026 [1][10][11] 8. **Real Estate Policy Focus**: The real estate policy emphasizes risk mitigation and the management of existing stock, with a focus on utilizing the nearly 11 trillion in housing provident fund to guide funds into consumption and the real estate market [1][12] 9. **Support for Young Families**: A new policy supporting housing for newly married and childbearing families aims to reduce living costs and stimulate consumption while addressing inventory issues in real estate [1][6] 10. **Private Equity and Venture Capital**: The government aims to expand exit channels for private equity and venture capital to facilitate a smoother "fundraising-investment-management-exit" cycle, promoting technological innovation and new productive forces [1][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The fiscal and monetary policies are designed to support economic recovery while managing inflation and ensuring financial stability, reflecting a cautious approach to economic growth [1][5] - The emphasis on green development and carbon emission control indicates a long-term commitment to sustainability, which may impact upstream industries and resource prices [1][10][11] - The introduction of special funds for consumer loans and service industry support reflects a strategic shift towards enhancing consumer demand rather than relying solely on direct subsidies [1][9]

Economic Growth Target - The government is expected to slightly lower the GDP growth target for 2026 to a range of 4.5%-5.0%, down from approximately 5.0% in 2025, with 21 out of 31 provincial-level regions adjusting their targets downward [4] CPI Inflation Target - The CPI inflation target for 2026 is anticipated to remain at around 2.0%, consistent with the previous year, despite an actual CPI inflation rate drop to 0.0% in 2025 [5] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to maintain an "appropriate easing" stance, with the central bank likely to implement a policy interest rate cut and a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter of 2026 [6] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is projected to play a leading role in addressing demand slowdown, with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4.0%, higher than the previous 3.0% [7] Consumption Promotion Policies - The government is likely to continue enhancing policy support for consumption, confirming the scale of fiscal subsidies and reiterating structural measures such as maternity subsidies and social security system improvements [8] Real Estate Policy - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to reaffirm the real estate policy framework established in December 2025, with local governments primarily driving the implementation of most easing measures [9] "15th Five-Year" Plan - The final version of the "15th Five-Year" plan is expected to provide specific guidance for economic and social development from 2026 to 2030, with a focus on building a strong, independent industrial ecosystem and significantly increasing consumption [10]

Group 1: Core Insights - The consumption during this year's Spring Festival shows a strong start, with average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 8.6% year-on-year in the first four days, compared to 4.1% last year [6][11] - There is a notable differentiation in service consumption, with a decline in movie attendance but a strong increase in travel [11][25] - The growth in homecoming consumption is significant, particularly in lower-tier cities, which contributed 54.1% to the Spring Festival box office, up from previous years [11][28] Group 2: Spring Festival Implications for 2026 Consumption - The expected recovery in consumption for January-February is projected to be between 5% and 2.5% year-on-year, a notable increase from around 1% at the end of last year [13][14] - There will likely be more supportive policies for consumption, shifting focus from "trade-in" subsidies to other areas such as consumer loan interest subsidies and support for service consumption [14][15] - Service consumption is anticipated to become the main support for the economy in 2026, with a shift in consumer preference from goods to services [15] Group 3: Travel and Migration Trends - The Spring Festival travel saw a record 50.8 billion cross-regional movements, a 5.5% increase from last year, with post-festival travel being stronger than pre-festival travel [16][21] - The travel intensity during the festival was significantly higher, with a 35.4% increase in travel post-festival compared to last year [21] Group 4: Tourism Insights - Domestic tourism has seen an increase, while outbound tourism has declined, with domestic flights increasing by 4.7% and international flights by 3.4% compared to last year [25] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has experienced a notable increase in inbound tourism, with a 24.1% rise in visitors compared to last year [25] Group 5: Movie Box Office Analysis - The Spring Festival box office reached only 4.36 billion yuan, significantly lower than the average of 6.1 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025, attributed to supply-side factors [27][28] - The contribution from lower-tier cities to the box office has increased, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [28] Group 6: Trade-in Program Performance - The impact of the trade-in program on sales has weakened, with total sales driven by trade-ins at 198.02 billion yuan, a significant drop from last year's daily average [33] - The performance of the automotive trade-in program is weaker compared to home appliances, with a notable decline in new energy vehicle sales [33] Group 7: Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales showed signs of recovery during the Spring Festival, with a 2.6% increase in transaction area compared to last year, although overall performance remains weak [35] - Second-hand home sales have decreased by 16.7% compared to last year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [35]

Group 1 - The first key time point is early March during the National People's Congress (NPC), where the annual economic growth target and major policy resource allocations will be clarified, particularly focusing on fiscal funding directions [2] - The second key time point is in mid to late March, when local investment conditions will start to become clear, coinciding with the traditional peak construction season, allowing for assessment of overall investment density and strength through key physical workload indicators [2] - The third key time point is the second quarter, which serves as an important window for observing consumer activity, as specific policy frameworks and benefits will be released following the NPC's direction to enhance consumption rates [3]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - In November 2025, the inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures in the US increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the growth rate of goods consumption reaching its highest level since the second half of 2025[1] - The US industrial output in December showed unexpected growth, and the previously announced annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 was revised upward, marking the highest level in two years[1] - The US economy demonstrates strong endogenous momentum as of the end of 2025, supported by wages and savings despite persistent inflation[1] Group 2: European Economic Conditions - By December 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate in Europe fell below 2%, indicating a continued easing of pressure, primarily driven by labor costs and year-end consumption peaks in the service sector[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current monetary policy stance appropriate but retains flexibility for adjustments[2] - Uncertainties regarding the Greenland issue between major European countries and the US have temporarily decreased, leading to a slight increase in global risk appetite[2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - In Q4 2025, China's actual GDP growth rate slowed due to a high base effect, but the annual economic growth target was still met, with a pattern of stronger supply than demand and stronger external demand than internal demand[2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see continued structural support from net exports, with new policy measures from the central bank likely to stabilize government-led investment projects[2] - The State Council emphasizes improving long-term mechanisms to promote consumption, with new stimulus policies including loan interest subsidies and special guarantee plans being introduced[2] Group 4: Market Risks - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially disrupting market risk appetite due to uncertainties in the global economic and trade landscape[2] - Economic and policy changes exceeding expectations could lead to adjustments in related policies as the domestic economy undergoes a transformation[2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The document does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 19, 2026, and the overall trend in January 2026. Some futures are expected to reach new highs [1][2][4]. - It also presents a series of macro - news and their potential impacts on the futures market, such as policy changes and trade agreements [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Trend Forecast - **January 19, 2026 Forecast**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to oscillate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2603 is likely to oscillate strongly, and TL2603 is expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][41][46]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: AU2604 and AG2604 are expected to oscillate strongly and may reach new highs. PT2606 and PD2606 are likely to oscillate strongly [2][48][52]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Some, like CU2603 and AL2603, are expected to oscillate strongly, while others, such as ZN2603 and NI2602, may oscillate weakly [2][67][73]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Some futures, including JM2605 and FG605, are expected to oscillate strongly, and others, like RB2605 and I2605, may oscillate weakly [2][101][108]. - **January 2026 Forecast**: - Stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM continuous contracts) are expected to oscillate strongly. Some may reach new highs [4]. - Gold, silver, copper, and other futures continuous contracts are expected to oscillate strongly, with some reaching new highs [4][5]. 3.2 Macro - news and Their Impacts - **Domestic News**: - The State Council promotes consumption - boosting measures, and the SFC strengthens market regulation and promotes reform [6][7]. - The central bank adjusts the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans and cuts re - loan and re - discount rates [7][8]. - The total social electricity consumption in China in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion kWh [9]. - **International News**: - Canada and China reach an economic and trade cooperation agreement, and the EU may impose tariffs on US goods [6][11]. - The US Federal Reserve officials express their views on interest rates and economic growth [10]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts trading limits for silver and nickel futures contracts [13]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center revises the container shipping index (European line) futures standard contract [13]. - On January 16, international precious metal futures generally declined, while crude oil futures rose, and London base metals fell [13][14].

Macroeconomic Overview - December PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating expectations for policy support in the coming year, particularly in the construction sector[2] - December CPI and PPI were 0.8% and -1.9% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - The first batch of special government bonds for 2026, amounting to 62.5 billion yuan, was issued earlier than in 2025, supporting consumer policies[2] Financial Market Performance - From December 29, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the equity market saw a significant increase, with daily trading volume averaging 25,806 billion yuan, up 6,154 billion yuan from the previous period[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.79%[2] Fixed Income Market - Bond yields rose overall during the same period, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 5.1 basis points[2] - The central bank's net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan contributed to a stable and loose funding environment[2] International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%[2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.12%, and oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected fundamentals, slower-than-anticipated reserve requirement ratio cuts, and renewed inflation pressures in the U.S.[2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual CPI remaining stable compared to the previous year [1][2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% [4][6] - The month-on-month PPI increase was influenced by improved supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand increases in certain industries, such as coal and gas production [4][5] - Input factors led to a divergence in price trends for domestic non-ferrous metals and oil-related industries, with non-ferrous metal prices rising due to international price increases, while oil-related prices fell due to declining international oil prices [5][6]