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当“十五五”遇上老龄化提速,养老金融如何拆解“灰犀牛”难题?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 10:44
Core Insights - Aging is described as a visible and tangible "gray rhino" rather than an unpredictable "black swan," indicating a significant and imminent challenge for society [1] - China has the largest elderly population globally, with one in four elderly individuals living in China, and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will see the fastest increase in aging population levels [3] - The development of a multi-tiered pension insurance system is emphasized as crucial in addressing the challenges posed by an aging population [4] Group 1: Aging Population and Financial Implications - By 2024, the population aged 60 and above in China is projected to reach 310 million, with expectations to exceed 400 million by 2035 [4] - The transition from a savings-based to an investment-based pension system is necessary, requiring differentiated services and product development from pension financial institutions [4] - The low-interest-rate environment presents challenges for pension fund management, necessitating strategies to enhance long-term asset creation capabilities [4] Group 2: Constructing a Pension Financial Ecosystem - A well-functioning pension financial ecosystem is essential for converting aging pressures into economic growth, linking national savings to support technological innovation and industrial upgrades [5] - Long-term capital, such as pensions and life insurance funds, can address the capital patience issues faced by industries, particularly in emerging technologies [5] - The consumption capacity of retirees is increasing, and better investment returns on pensions can further stimulate the silver economy [5] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions in Pension Finance - Current challenges in China's pension finance include insufficient tax incentives, limited policy leverage, and a dominant first pillar in the pension system [6][7] - Proposed solutions involve combining effective markets with proactive government roles, engaging micro, meso, and macro levels, and integrating innovation, funding, product, and talent chains [7] - Insurance companies are transitioning from risk providers to comprehensive life-cycle service providers, indicating a shift in the value proposition within the pension finance sector [8]