Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the hidden risks in controlling stake acquisitions, particularly focusing on inventory, accounts receivable periods, and free cash flow as significant factors that can derail acquisition plans [1][3][4]. Group 1: Inventory Risks - High inventory levels, particularly when they exceed 50% of current assets, signal potential issues such as unsold products and low turnover efficiency [1]. - A case study involving a solar equipment company revealed that despite appearing profitable, it had two-year-old components in stock, indicating a risk of acquiring outdated inventory [1]. Group 2: Accounts Receivable Risks - Lengthening accounts receivable periods, especially exceeding 90 days, can indicate a company's struggle with cash flow and may lead to a "ticket-for-ticket" survival mode [3]. - An example of a new energy materials company showed an increase in accounts receivable turnover days from 48 to 126 days without a significant rise in sales, raising questions about the sustainability of reported growth [3]. Group 3: Free Cash Flow Risks - Negative free cash flow indicates a company is reliant on external financing, akin to a patient needing blood transfusions to survive [4]. - A real estate industry case highlighted a company with three consecutive years of negative operating cash flow, suggesting deeper operational and financing issues [4]. Group 4: Interconnected Risks - The three identified risks often coalesce, creating a "capital exhaustion flywheel" that can ensnare acquirers, as seen in a case where a large private enterprise faced cash flow issues due to high inventory and extended accounts receivable periods [4]. - The article warns that these risks are frequently overlooked due to the urgency of acquisitions, with acquirers focusing on net profits and valuations rather than cash flow realities [4][6]. Group 5: Recommendations for Mitigation - Goheal suggests a three-step approach to identify and manage these risks: assessing inventory aging and technology depreciation, establishing a linkage model between accounts receivable and sales, and conducting sensitivity tests on free cash flow [4][6]. - It is recommended to include performance guarantees and cash flow targets in acquisition agreements to prevent inflated profits through extended accounts receivable periods [6].

国际三大信用评级公司已悉数将美国主权信用评级拉下最高级别，警示美国国债或将不再被当作无风险 资产。 美国政府债务已然是一头灰犀牛，让全球金融市场如鲠在喉。 16日国际信用评级机构穆迪宣布，将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将美国主权信用评级展 望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。至此，国际三大信用评级公司已悉数将美国主权信用评级拉下最高级别，警 示美国国债或将不再被当作无风险资产。 上两次美国主权信用评级降级，分别发生于2011年8月和2023年8月，标普全球评级、惠誉评级将美国评 级从AAA下调至AA+，都引发了全球金融市场的激烈反应。这次由于穆迪的公告时间在美股收盘后， 市场反应时间有限，但19日美国金融市场如何反应，对投资者来说将充满变数。 这三次美国主权信用评级降级，都离美国债务触及上限的"X date"不远，都与美国政府债务的不可持续 直接相关。穆迪在公告中指出，此次下调反映出美国政府债务与利息支付比例在过去十多年中持续攀 升，赤字将从2024年占GDP的6.4%扩大至2035年的9%；并预计到2035年，包括利息支出在内的强制性 支出将占美国政府总支出的78%，高于2024年的73%。 针对美国 ...

编 辑丨张星 张铭心 刘雪莹 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月1 6日，国际信用评级机构穆迪宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率 支付比例增加， 该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从Aa a下调至Aa 1。 美国白宫批评国际信用 评级机构穆迪当天下调美国主权信用评级的决定， 称其为"政治决定"。 据券商中国报道，此前惠誉和标普全球已将美国评级调至Aa a以下，穆迪的最新决定意味着， 美国已被国际三大信用评级机构全部降级。 作 者丨吴斌 通货膨胀中苦苦挣扎的美国人带来额外的财务负担。 美股ETF基金跳水、美债收益率飙升 受 上 述 消 息 影 响 ， 追 踪 标 普 5 0 0 指 数 的 ETF 基 金 在 盘 后 交 易 中 下 跌 1% ， 纳 斯 达 克 1 0 0ETF- I n v e s c o (QQQ)跌1 . 3%。 美国1 0年期国债收益率直线飙升， 一度再次逼近4 . 5% ；两年期美债收益率也 刷 新 日 高 至 4 . 0 0 6%，最高涨1 . 1 7%。 | | | 10Y 美国国债 10YRNOTE.GBM 昨收 4.434 最高 4.497 最低 今开 4.434 4.386 4.35bp + ...