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五矿期货农产品早报:农产品早报2025-10-23-20251023
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 00:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the domestic supply has significant pressure, with soybean inventory at a record - high level. There is no immediate improvement in short - term US soybean imports, and the soybean meal de - stocking season provides some support. In the medium term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][3]. - For palm oil, the production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the market. There is a possibility that the current high - supply and inventory - building situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to wait and see for clearer production signals [5][7]. - For sugar, the data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in September is bearish but in line with expectations. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere and high production in Brazil, the overall view is bearish, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [8][9]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new year, resulting in high selling - hedging pressure. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up the Zhengzhou cotton price, the upward space is limited [11][12]. - For eggs, the spot price may rebound, but the space is limited due to high supply. The short - term conditions for a significant increase are not met, and the market is expected to bottom out weakly. It is advisable to wait and see [14][16]. - For pigs, the market was previously pessimistic, but the consumption has recovered after the temperature drop. The market may be bullish in the short term but bearish in the medium term due to the post - poned supply pressure. It is recommended to wait for rebounds to sell [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean exports are expected to improve due to recent negotiations with India and Japan. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan, with weak trading and good pick - up. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week, and the port soybean inventory and oil - mill soybean meal inventory are both decreasing. MYSTEEL estimates that the domestic oil - mill soybean crushing volume will be 2.3335 million tons this week, up from 2.166 million tons last week. As of October 18, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 21.7%, higher than last week (11.1%) but lower than the five - year average (27.7%) [2]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the medium term [3]. Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the production also increased. From January - September 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased by nearly 10% year - on - year. Indonesia plans to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% in the second half of 2026. On Wednesday, domestic fats and oils prices dropped, and the high production in Malaysia and Indonesia is suppressing the market. The international palm oil market is currently balanced, with a tightening expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for clearer production signals [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing factories all dropped. Datagro estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil will reach 43.2 million tons in the next crushing season, an increase of 1.78 million tons. Brazil's national oil company lowered the gasoline price by 4.9%. From the first three weeks of October, Brazil's sugar exports increased by 6% compared to the daily average of the whole month of October last year [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated slightly. The spot price of cotton increased, and the Xinjiang cotton purchase price also rose slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with slight increases. The supply is normal, and the market sales are average. The egg price is expected to be stable with slight increases in some areas [14]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the market is expected to bottom out weakly [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose yesterday. The enthusiasm of farmers for selling pigs is average, and the market still has a willingness to support prices. However, the digestion of high - priced pigs is difficult, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has cooled down. The pig price is expected to rise in some areas and decline slightly in high - price areas [18]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term, sell on rebounds [19].