研究报告 地缘冲突抬升不确定性，警惕油脂市场短期波动 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 【宏观面动态】 印尼贸易部表示，印尼将 3 月毛棕榈油参考价设定在 938.87 美元/吨，高于 2 月的 918.47 美元/吨，3 月毛棕榈油出口关税升至 每吨 124 美元。 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 2026 年 2 月，国内植物油板块呈现先扬后抑、震荡偏弱、品种 间走势分化的格局，截至 2 月 27 日夜盘收盘，豆油 Y2605 合约报 8220 元/吨，跌 0.07%；棕榈油 P2605 合约报 8792 元/吨，涨 0.41%； 菜油 OI2605 合约报 9216 元/吨，涨 0.09%；BMD 毛棕榈油期货主力 合约收涨 0.87%，报 4040 林吉特/吨；截至美中时间 2 月 27 日收盘， CBOT 大豆 5 月合约报 1170 美分/蒲式耳，涨 0.56%；CBOT 豆油 5 月合约报 61.77 美分/磅，涨 ...

油脂价格震荡， 等待回调做多机会 油脂周报 2026/02/28 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 基本面评估 | 油脂基本面评估 | 估值 | | 驱动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 利润及生柴价差 | 马来西亚/印尼棕榈油产量、 出口、库存 | 其他植物油供需 | 中国、印度库存 | | 数据 | Y：05+434元/吨 P：05+0元/吨 | 棕榈油进口利润-290 元/吨。生柴价差中 | 当前主产国产量和库存都处于 | 大豆：产量小幅减产 菜籽：全球菜籽丰产 | 中国油脂库存偏高，印度油脂 | | | OI：05+795元/吨 | 位。 | 高位 | 葵籽：全球葵籽小幅减产 | 库存偏低 | | 多空评分 | 0 | +1.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | | 简评 | 中性 | 生柴价 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-02-27 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8714.00元/吨，环比变化-134元，幅度-1.51%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8198.00 元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.36%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9185.00元/吨，环比变化-59.00元，幅度-0.64%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8670.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元，幅度-1.37%，现货基差P05-44.00，环比变化+14.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8500.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.35%，现货基差Y05+302.00，环比变 化+0.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9830.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.11%，现货基差OI05+645.00， 环比变化-51.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2026年2月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环 比上月同期减少16.78%，出油率环比上月同期增长0.1%，产量环比上月同期减少16.25%。加拿大菜籽(3月船期)C&F 价格567美元/吨，与上个交 ...

欧洲气温波动剧烈，关注菜籽产区 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8848.00元/吨，环比变化+24元，幅度+0.27%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8228.00 元/吨，环比变化+88.00元，幅度+1.08%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9244.00元/吨，环比变化+44.00元，幅度+0.48%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8790.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.23%，现货基差P05-58.00，环比变化 -44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8530.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.83%，现货基差Y05+302.00， 环比变化-18.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9940.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差 OI05+696.00，环比变化-54.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，乌克兰农民联盟UAC表示，由于天气问题可能导致产量下降，该国2026年7-8月 到货的油菜籽收获的出口参考价格已从一个月前的每吨510-520美元升至每吨530-540美元。作为欧洲主要油菜籽种 植国和出口国，乌克兰2024 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2026-02-25投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕12月产量环比减少5.46%至182.98万吨，出口环比增加 8.55%至131.65万吨，月末库存环比增加7.59%至305.06万吨。报告整体稍偏空，库存数据超预期。目前 船调机构显示1月目前马棕出口数据环比增加29%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8430，基差290，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：1月9日豆油商业库存102万吨，前108万吨，环比-6万吨，同比+14.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：8000-8400 ...

格隆汇2月24日｜马来西亚棕榈油理事会(Malaysian Palm Oil Council, 简称MPOC)称，3月份棕榈油价格 预计将在每吨4000-4300马来西亚林吉特区间盘整。该理事会表示，近期供应趋紧、印度需求改善以及 美国豆油价格坚挺应会为棕榈油价格提供支撑。该理事会认为，马来西亚出口走强以及印尼在出口税上 调前提前发货，预计将削减两国库存。该理事会补充称，由于价格竞争力提高，预计印度需求将反弹， 预计2026年棕榈油消费量将增加80万吨。但MPOC表示，全球大豆供应充足和中国豆油出口增加可能会 限制毛棕榈油(CPO)价格的涨幅，这或将抑制其价格的进一步上涨。这两种油的价格走势往往同步，因 为它们可用于类似产品。 ...

来源：粮油市场报 经过前期的大幅波动，在缺乏显著多空因素影响下，最近一周（2月3日至9日），国内食用油市场进入 小幅震荡格局。 豆油：供增需弱 价格承压 本周，国内豆油市场整体弱势震荡，价格重心较前一周下移。市场预期主要进口国需求可能放缓，国际 豆油报价疲软，令国内成本支撑减弱。若无明显利多因素驱动，预计短期豆油市场将延续弱势整理态 势。 棕榈油：采购趋缓 成交清淡 本周，国内棕榈油现货市场整体呈震荡偏弱态势，成交持续清淡，受高库存压制明显。棕榈油与豆油、 菜油性价比优势不明显，替代消费乏力。春节临近，现货市场需求将进一步萎缩，贸易商去库存压力仍 存，现货价格或继续震荡下行。 菜籽油：供需双弱 区间震荡 截至2月9日当周，国内菜籽油现货市场整体呈震荡波动态势，价格跟盘调整。国内菜籽油商业库存延续 下降趋势，短期供应压力温和。但市场预期后期压榨开机率提升，远月供应增加，压制现货价格。春节 临近，现货需求进一步萎缩，价格或维持震荡运行。 花生油：库存高位 价格平稳 本周，国内花生油现货市场整体保持平稳运行，价格波动微弱。成交端呈现"产区平稳、销区微暖"态 势。春节临近，市场交易逐步收尾，花生油现货价格将维持平稳。 ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil Market - The focus of the soybean oil market is on the upcoming U.S. biofuel blending mandate for 2026, expected to boost demand for U.S. soybean oil and global soybean oil outlook [2] - The proposed 45Z clean fuel tax credit rules from the U.S. Treasury are expected to provide long-term structural support for U.S. soybean oil prices, linking its value to energy policies [2] - Risks include potential underwhelming outcomes from the U.S. biofuel policy, improved weather conditions in South America, and domestic inventory accumulation during the Chinese New Year [3] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift due to reduced supply from production areas, recovering export demand, and unexpected declines in inventory, as confirmed by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board [4] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased by 7.72% to 2.815 million tons, with January production dropping by 13.78% to 1.577 million tons, while exports increased by 11.44% to 1.484 million tons [4] - Domestic market sentiment is affected by rising risk factors, including potential weather improvements in Southeast Asia and the purchasing pace of major importing countries like India [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights two significant developments for the company, including a share increase by a major shareholder and the board's decision to apply for a soybean oil delivery warehouse qualification [1] Group 2 - On February 5, 2026, the company announced that a concerted action party of the controlling shareholder, Hunan Xingchuang Investment Management Co., Ltd., completed its share increase plan, acquiring a total of 5.4797 million shares, which represents 1.59% of the company's total share capital. This move may reflect the major shareholder's confidence in the company's long-term value [2] Group 3 - On February 3, 2026, the company held its 12th meeting of the fourth board of directors, where it reviewed a proposal to apply for soybean oil delivery warehouse qualification from the Dalian Commodity Exchange. If approved, this could enhance the company's storage and trading capabilities within the oilseed industry chain, providing support for future business expansion [3] - Additionally, the company's Q3 2025 report indicated stable performance, with a year-on-year increase of 93.69% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters. However, attention is needed regarding the impact of raw material cost fluctuations and changes in consumer trends on the fundamentals [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The MPOB report was released, and the market for edible oils fluctuated. The overall report met market expectations [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.82% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 8,098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or 0.20%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 9,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan or 0.45% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 60 yuan, a decrease of 26 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 292 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.51%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 754 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan [1] Market News Summary - Argentina: In January, the export volume of soybean oil decreased from 562,000 tons in December to 460,000 - 480,000 tons (502,000 tons in the same period last year), and the export volume of soybean meal decreased from 2.05 million tons to 1.95 - 2 million tons (2.22 million tons in the same period last year). The soybean processing volume decreased, and it will continue to decline in February. The export volume of sunflower oil tripled to 100,000 tons compared to the same period last year, the export volume of sunflower meal increased from 105,000 tons to 150,000 - 160,000 tons, and the export volume of sunflower seeds was close to 100,000 tons. It is expected to continue to grow in February. The sunflower seed processing usually increases seasonally from February to March and will reach its peak after the new processing facilities are put into operation in April. The national sunflower seed harvest is 25% complete, and the output is expected to reach a record of 6.2 - 6.6 million tons (5.5 million tons in 2025 and 4.5 million tons in 2024) [2] - France: The French Ministry of Agriculture slightly increased the sown area forecast for winter soft wheat and rapeseed in 2026. The sown area of winter soft wheat is expected to reach 4.59 million hectares, slightly higher than the initial forecast of 4.56 million hectares in December last year. The sown area of rapeseed is forecast to increase from 1.34 million hectares estimated in December last year to 1.37 million hectares, an 8% increase compared to 2025 and 11.6% higher than the five - year average [2] - Malaysia: In January, the export volume of palm oil was 1,484,267 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%; the inventory was 2,815,493 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72%; the output was 1,577,454 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.78%; the import was 32,316 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%. From February 1 - 10, according to AmSpec, the export volume of palm oil was 399,995 tons, a 14.25% decrease compared to the same period last month; according to ITS, it was 451,340 tons, a 10.5% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]