1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the industry is "oscillating weakly" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of the meal market, suggesting that the soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the recovery of Brazilian shipping and the expected increase in US soybean planting area, with a neutral - bearish outlook. Rapeseed meal is mainly influenced by short - term supply shortages and medium - term supply increases, following the soybean meal trend but weaker [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Brazilian soybean shipping has basically returned to normal, with an expected shipment of about 10 million tons in March, alleviating supply concerns. The visit of the Brazilian agriculture minister to China and the Brazilian trucker strike are new uncertainties. Global soybean production is expected to be abundant, and the expected increase in the area of new US soybean crops will suppress price upside. Rapeseed meal has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term supply increase [5] - **Demand**: Short - term soybean meal demand has rigid support due to a large breeding inventory, but the concern about shortages in April has eased, and long - term demand is expected to decline due to capacity reduction. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of aquaculture, but there is an expected seasonal increase in demand from April to June, and the expanding spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may divert some soybean meal demand [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are currently high, but domestic soybean meal is expected to further reduce inventory in April. The national rapeseed meal inventory has increased weekly and is at a low level, supporting near - month prices [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening, and the M05 - M09 spread is weakening. The M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended [5] - **Profit**: The Brazilian CNF premium for soybean meal has risen, and the price has oscillated downward this week, leading to a decline in the crushing profit. The rapeseed meal crushing profit has increased this week [5] - **Valuation**: Soybean meal is at a relatively low historical valuation and is sensitive to positive factors. Rapeseed meal is at a relatively low price and has room for valuation repair [5] - **Macro and Policy**: The ongoing Middle East conflict has increased oil and global logistics costs, bringing risk premiums to agricultural products. The US biodiesel policy supports long - term US soybean demand. China has suspended the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Brazilian agriculture minister's visit to China and the Sino - US trade talks in April on soybean trade [5] - **Investment View**: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to international trade policy changes and US soybean planting area adjustments. For the spread, attention should be paid to the M05 - M09 reverse spread opportunity. Rapeseed meal mainly follows the soybean meal trend but is weaker [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate weakly, and the M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended. Policy and weather should be monitored [5] 3.2 Meal Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In March, the 25/26 global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio was raised [30] - **Canadian Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The March report shows a downward adjustment of the Canadian rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [37] - **US Soybean Domestic Crushing Profit**: The crushing profit is at a high level [43] - **US Soybean Export Sales Progress**: The export sales progress is slow [51] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Rate**: The harvest rate is presented in the data [58] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Import and Inventory**: Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume, inventory, and related costs such as CNF premiums and import crushing profits are provided [60][62][66][68] - **Oil Mill Operation and Sales**: Data on the operation rate, crushing volume, sales volume, and consumption of oil mills are presented [76][78][86][90] - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: Data on feed production, livestock farming profits, and related market indicators are provided [97][99][107][113]

Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Views - For corn, short - term price is driven by supply shortage in the front - end trade and concentrated restocking demand in the consumption end. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be monitored due to supply gap. For starch, short - term price is strong due to limited raw material supply, and long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [4]. - For sugar, the international market's fundamentals are slightly stronger with India's output cut and ISO's global surplus reduction. The domestic market is volatile and strong, with low import costs and high spot pressure [7]. - For cotton, low initial inventory offsets output increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promoting policies, and potential reduction in Xinjiang's planting area, long - term long position is suitable [9]. - For eggs, slow chicken culling delays supply pressure, and rising feed costs compress profits. 05 and 06 contracts are recommended to be treated as reverse spreads [13]. - For apples, the market shows a pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east. Good - quality apples in Shaanxi are in short supply, while Shandong's market is stable. National inventory is decreasing [15]. - For pigs, short - term supply is loose, with limited demand change and sporadic second - fattening. Futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to factors like出栏体重, second - fattening entry, and frozen product storage [15]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 12 - 18, 2026, prices in some regions remained stable, with changes in basis, trade profit, and import profit. For example, the basis changed by 4, trade profit decreased by 10, and import profit increased by 1 [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price is driven by supply - demand mismatch, and long - term depends on policies. Starch price is strong due to limited raw material supply [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 12 - 18, 2026, spot prices in some regions decreased, basis increased, and import profits decreased. For example, the price in Liuzhou decreased by 20, and the basis increased by 43 [7]. - **Analysis**: International fundamentals are stronger, and the domestic market is affected by import policy discussions, with low import costs and high spot pressure [7]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From March 12 - 18, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 210, and import - related data also changed [16]. - **Analysis**: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make long - term long position suitable [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 12 - 18, 2026, prices in some egg - producing areas increased, and the basis increased by 22 [13]. - **Analysis**: Slow chicken culling delays supply pressure, and rising feed costs compress profits. 05 and 06 contracts are recommended to be treated as reverse spreads [13]. Apples - **Price Data**: From March 12 - 18, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the basis of different contracts changed [14][15]. - **Analysis**: The market shows a pattern of strong in the west and stable in the east, with good - quality apples in short supply in Shaanxi and stable market in Shandong. National inventory is decreasing [15]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 12 - 18, 2026, prices in some pig - producing areas decreased, and the basis increased by 120 [15]. - **Analysis**: Short - term supply is loose, with limited demand change and sporadic second - fattening. Futures are at a premium, and attention should be paid to factors like出栏体重, second - fattening entry, and frozen product storage [15].

Group 1: Overall Report Summary - The report provides market analysis for various agricultural products including corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs [1][4][6][10][12][13] Group 2: Corn and Starch Corn - After the Lantern Festival, market trading activities are gradually returning to normal. In the short term, the supply in the front - end trading link is still tight, and the concentrated release of replenishment demand from the consumer end is the core driving force for price increase. The current price fluctuation is mainly due to a temporary supply - demand mismatch. In the medium - to - long term, it is necessary to focus on structural changes, import policies, and domestic reserve auction policies [1] Starch - This week, starch prices continued to rise. In the short term, after the festival, enterprise production has gradually resumed, but the raw material supply is still scarce, and the number of incoming trucks has decreased. With limited raw material supply, deep - processing enterprises are strongly inclined to raise prices, and starch prices will remain strong. In the medium - to - long term, the key support factor for price trends is the change in downstream consumption rhythm, and whether enterprise inventories will continue to decline after the seasonal peak season will be the key factor for future starch pricing [1] Group 3: Sugar - In the international market, the fundamentals have marginally strengthened slightly. India has lowered its estimated sugar production for the 25/26 crushing season, reducing the amount of sugar available for export, and the ISO has lowered its forecast for the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. Crude oil prices also affect raw sugar valuation through the sugar - alcohol - oil transmission mechanism. In the domestic market, after the festival, there has been discussion about import policies, and the futures market has shown a volatile and upward trend. Some processing sugar mills have set prices earlier, with lower out - of - quota import costs, but there is significant spot pressure in the industrial sector, and there is hedging pressure above the futures market [4] Group 4: Cotton - The relatively low initial inventory offsets most of the increase in production. The focus is on subsequent consumption. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, frequent domestic consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to continue to improve. Also, the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term long positions [6] Group 5: Eggs - The spread between the prices of culled chickens and white chickens has widened, indicating a slowdown in the culling rhythm. The average culling age of culled chickens is around 500 days, corresponding to the high - level chicken replenishment from November - December 2024 to April 2025. The current slowdown in culling is likely an active decision by farmers to delay culling, which means the supply pressure is postponed. Additionally, the feed cost has increased month - on - month, further squeezing the profit margin of egg production. Given the large premium of the 05 and 06 contracts, it is recommended to adopt a reverse - spread strategy [10] Group 6: Apples - This week, the apple market maintains a pattern of strong prices in the west and stable prices in the east. High - quality apples are in better demand than medium - and low - quality ones. In Shaanxi, the supply of high - quality apples is temporarily tight, and merchants' early - stage stocking due to expected future scarcity has pushed up prices. In Shandong, the market is stable, with slow cold - storage trading. In the sales areas, overall sales are slow, with low truck arrivals and low enthusiasm among wholesalers. As of March 11, 2026, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas is 4.9972 million tons, a decrease of 278,200 tons from the previous week [13] Group 7: Pigs - Over the weekend, the spot price of pigs fluctuated within a narrow range, with limited change in demand. Some second - fattening activities have started, and some farmers have slightly reduced supply. In the short term, the supply remains abundant. The reduction in production capacity is limited, and there is pressure to release inventory during the off - season. In the medium term, prices are theoretically under pressure, while there is support for a long - term turnaround. As prices fall, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in the slaughter weight of farmers, the expectation of second - fattening entry, and the performance of frozen pork storage. The futures price has a premium, and the low - price level is easily affected by sentiment, so it is necessary to pay attention to the difference between expectations and reality [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center, dated March 12, 2026 [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, in corn, prices in Changchun remained stable, while in Weifang it increased by 10. The basis changed by -14, and trade profit decreased by 10. In starch, prices in Heilongjiang remained stable, and in Weifang increased by 20. The basis changed by -12, and processing profit increased by 13 [3] Core View - Short - term: For corn, post - Lantern Festival, trade activities resumed. Front - end supply is tight, and back - end consumption replenishment drives price up. It's driven by short - term supply - demand mismatch. For starch, raw material cost increase led to price increase. Post - festival production increased, and downstream replenishment supported inventory reduction [4] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes after seasonal peak [4] Group 3: Sugar Data Summary - From March 5 - 10, 2026, sugar prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming showed fluctuations. The basis and import profit also changed. The number of warehouse receipts had a small change [6] Core View - International: Fundamentals slightly strengthened. India cut 25/26 production estimate, and ISO cut global surplus estimate. Crude oil rise may boost raw sugar price [7] - Domestic: After the festival, there was discussion on import policy. The market was volatile and strong. Some processing plants had low out - of - quota import cost, but there was hedging pressure on the upper side of the market [7] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 220. The import profit and other data also had corresponding changes [8] Core View - Low initial inventory offset most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, domestic consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to improve. New - season Xinjiang planting area may decrease, so cotton is suitable for long - term long position [8] Group 5: Eggs Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, egg prices in some regions remained stable, and the basis increased by 1 [10] Core View - The gap between culled chicken and white chicken prices widened, indicating slower culling. High - level chicken replenishment peaked in April 2025. Current slow culling may be active delay by farmers, post - poning supply pressure. Feed cost increase compressed egg - laying profit. Considering the basis structure of 05 and 06 contracts, a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [10] Group 6: Apples Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, apple prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable. National inventory decreased by 9, Shandong inventory increased by 67, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 10 [16][17] Core View - This week, apple sales in production areas varied. Western areas had better sales, with good - quality apple prices rising in Gansu. Shandong had average sales, with more low - price transactions. In the sales areas, post - festival sales were stable, but the arrival volume decreased and sales slowed down [17] Group 7: Pigs Data Summary - From March 5 - 11, 2026, pig prices in some regions decreased, and the basis increased by 10 [17] Core View - The weekend pig spot market adjusted weakly. Group supply was abundant, social pig farms resisted low prices, and consumption was weak. Capacity reduction was limited, there was inventory pressure in the off - season, and prices were under medium - term pressure. Pay attention to factors like farmers' selling weight, second - fattening entry, and frozen product storage after price decline. Futures had a premium, and prices were easily affected by sentiment [17]

Report Overview 1. Report Date - The report is dated March 2, 2026 [1] 2. Reported Industries - The report covers the soft commodities industry, including sugar, cotton, apples, and jujubes [3][17][23][32] Sugar Market 1. Core View - Domestic sugar supply surplus suppresses sugar prices, and the external raw sugar is under pressure at the 14 - cent support level. The market has fully reflected the weak fundamentals and is in a bottom - range oscillation, lacking short - term upward drivers [3] 2. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: SR01 closed at 5480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 2.60%. SB closed at 13.92 cents/pound with a daily decrease of 0.29% and a weekly decrease of 0.64% [4] - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 spread was 140 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day and up 10 yuan/ton for the week. SR05 - 09 spread was - 11 yuan/ton, unchanged both daily and weekly [4] - **Basis**: On February 27, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 114 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton daily and 77 yuan/ton weekly [12] - **Import Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton daily and up 107 yuan/ton weekly. The out - of - quota price was 5018 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton daily and up 140 yuan/ton weekly [15] Cotton Market 1. Core View - The expectation of tight domestic supply and demand this year remains unchanged. The current price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upper limit of cotton prices. The recent escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has limited impact on the cotton market fundamentals, but the sharp rise in crude oil may support US cotton due to the increase in substitute prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent adjustment of US foreign trade policies and the export progress of US cotton [17] 2. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 15630 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton or 0.6%. Cotton 05 closed at 15225 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 1.1% [18] - **Price Spreads**: The cotton 01 - 05 spread was 330 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day. The cotton basis was 1236 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton [18] Apple Market 1. Core View - After the holiday, the demand for apples weakens, the transaction in the producing areas is divided, and the inventory depletion speed slows down. If the demand continues to weaken, the futures price may continue to decline. If the trading logic returns to the shortage of delivery products, the futures price may rise again [23] 2. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.85% daily and 2.04% weekly. AP05 closed at 9896 yuan/ton, up 1.39% daily and 0.62% weekly [24] - **Price Spreads**: AP01 - 05 spread was - 1444 yuan/ton, unchanged on the day and down 5.87% weekly [24] Jujube Market 1. Core View - The jujube production in the 2025/2026 season has been determined, and the market focus has shifted to the change in demand. The overall supply - demand pattern of domestic jujubes is loose, and the short - term jujube price will still face pressure and may maintain a low - level oscillation [32] 2. Price Spread Data - **Futures Price Spreads**: The jujube futures 01 - 05 spread showed a certain range of fluctuations in historical data, and similar situations exist for the 05 - 09 and 09 - 01 spreads [33][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend before the release of imported soybeans from state reserves next week, supported by the strong US soybean exports, lower-than-expected Brazilian shipments in February, and the dry weather in Argentina [1]. - The oil market is cautiously optimistic, with limited downside space and the upside rebound height depending on policy guidance. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations in the next two days, which may affect the crude oil and oil markets [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - The 2025/26 soybean harvest rate in Brazil's Paraná state has reached 37%, with an estimated production of 22.12 million tons. The harvest progress is behind last year but normal compared to this year. The area of harvested soybeans is 2.16 million hectares out of the 5.77 million hectares planted [1]. - In Argentina, rainfall has been sporadic and insufficient to relieve drought, and crop ratings may decline, which is worrying for corn and soybean yields [1]. - US soybean exports are strong, and the lower - than - expected Brazilian shipments in February may lead to a decrease in arrivals in April. The dry weather in Argentina also supports the market's strong trend [1]. Oils - Indian buyers have cancelled 65,000 - 75,000 tons of South American soybean oil shipments, and it may expand to 100,000 - 120,000 tons in the next few days to lock in price - difference profits [2]. - The US EPA has sent a final biofuel quota regulation to the White House for review, which may have a significant impact on corn and soybean demand, biofuel production profits, and retail fuel prices [2]. - US soybean oil is supported by biofuel policies, while Malaysian palm oil is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The inventory in February is expected to decline again, but the large original inventory will suppress the near - month rebound height [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 26 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Date: February 26, 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Prices - **Soybean Meal**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3008, 2834, and 2951 respectively, with price changes of 19, 3, and 15. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows different changes [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2295, 2296, and 2361 respectively, with price changes of 2, -16, and -3. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi also shows different changes [3]. Monthly Spreads - **Soybean Meal**: The 15 - spread is 174 (up 16 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -117 (down 12 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is -57 (down 4 from yesterday) [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 15 - spread is -1 (up 18 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -65 (down 13 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is 66 (down 5 from yesterday) [3]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Soybean - Rapeseed 05 Spread**: 538 (up from 519 yesterday) - **Soybean - Rapeseed 09 Spread**: 590 (up from 572 yesterday) - **Oil - Meal Ratio 01**: 2.893 (down from 2.906 yesterday) [3] Spot Spreads - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal**: 544 (up 43 from yesterday) - **Rapeseed Meal - Sunflower Meal**: 140 (down 30 from yesterday) - **Soybean Meal - Sunflower Meal**: 814 (up 3 from yesterday) [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US Soybeans**: The carry - over stock of soybeans remains at around 350 million bushels, higher than market expectations. Although US soybean exports have improved, the overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose [4]. - **South American Market**: Brazil's new soybean crop is growing well, and the harvest is progressing smoothly. The monthly supply - demand report has raised Brazil's soybean production forecast. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, but the subsequent crushing drive may be limited. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot supply is gradually recovering. The oil mill's operating rate has increased recently, but the overall quantity is less than before. The提货量 has also decreased slightly, and the inventory is in a downward trend. As of February 20, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 37,200 tons, the operating rate is 1.02%, the soybean inventory is 5.1954 million tons (an increase of 421,500 tons or 8.83% from last week, and an increase of 181,200 tons or 3.61% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory is 842,500 tons (an increase of 3,100 tons or 0.37% from last week, and an increase of 343,700 tons or 68.91% year - on - year) [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is generally average. The oil mill's operating rate has increased compared with last week. As of the week of February 20, the crushing volume is 0 tons. The rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased but are still at a low level. The supply pressure still exists, and it is expected to be in a relatively volatile state [6]. Group 4: Logical Analysis - **US Soybeans**: After the macro - drive stabilizes, US soybeans are affected by weather. The positive factors have been fully reflected, and it is relatively difficult to rise further [7]. - **South American Market**: There are some weather disturbances in South America, mainly in the southern region. Although it affects the soybean harvest in some areas of Brazil, the impact on production is relatively limited. The high - level quotes in South America are mainly due to the incomplete reflection of pressure, and it is expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market is running strongly, mainly affected by market information, but the actual impact is limited. The shipping volume is relatively low, which may have an impact on subsequent supply, but the overall quantity is still relatively sufficient. The monthly spread may face downward pressure. The domestic rapeseed meal market is relatively strong due to the influence of soybean meal, but there may be pressure due to the improvement of supply from the macro - aspect. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal also has certain pressure. The subsequent supply of soybean meal is tight, but the spot price is mainly downward, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to expand [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Adopt a bearish approach [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM spread [8] - **Options**: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [8] Group 6: Soybean Pressing Profits - The pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans of different shipping months (May, June, July, and August) show different changes, with positive changes in the pressing profit compared with yesterday [9]

Summary of Agricultural Products Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the agricultural products industry in China, particularly corn and sugar markets, as well as related commodities like palm oil and cotton. Key Points on Corn Market - **Record Corn Production**: In 2025, China's corn production reached a historical high of approximately 288 million to 305 million tons, benefiting from favorable weather and improved planting techniques [5][1]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Despite the high production, demand has slightly decreased due to a decline in pig and poultry stocks and poor profitability in deep processing enterprises, leading to an improved supply-demand situation for corn [5][1]. - **Import Reduction**: Since October 2024, corn imports have significantly decreased, with only 1.8 million tons imported in the 2025 fiscal year, indicating a move towards self-sufficiency [6][7]. - **Market Volatility**: Northeast traders are holding back on sales, leading to potential market pressure as weather changes could cause spoilage, particularly around the Lantern Festival [9][10]. - **Price Trends**: Corn prices are currently high at around 2,300 yuan per ton, but short-term weather factors may cause fluctuations [10][11]. Sugar Market Insights - **Production and Sales Pressure**: The new sugar season has seen a decrease in production to about 6.89 million tons, with sales lagging behind, resulting in increased inventory levels [14][15]. - **Import Surge**: Sugar imports rose significantly to 4.9 million tons in 2025 due to low international prices, although overall sugar consumption has not seen a corresponding increase [15][16]. - **Price Stability**: Sugar prices have struggled to break through 5,300 yuan per ton, reflecting the sales challenges faced by sugar factories [14][15]. Palm Oil Market Dynamics - **Dependence on Imports**: China's palm oil consumption is entirely reliant on imports from Malaysia and Indonesia, with increasing demand driven by biodiesel policies [17][18]. - **Price Outlook**: Palm oil prices are expected to rise due to stable demand and limited new planting areas, although global supply remains ample [18][23]. Cotton Market Trends - **Production Levels**: Cotton production in China is near historical highs, with demand gradually recovering, particularly post-sanctions on Xinjiang cotton [19][20]. - **Price Stability**: Cotton prices have shown a steady increase, with expectations for further growth due to improved demand and potential reductions in planting areas [19][20]. Additional Insights - **Impact of Oil Prices**: Rising crude oil prices are expected to directly influence agricultural product prices, particularly sugar and palm oil, due to their energy attributes [21][22]. - **Future Planting Trends**: In Xinjiang, policy changes are leading to increased corn planting at the expense of cotton, indicating a significant shift in crop production strategies [24][1]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the agricultural products market in China.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][5][7] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with specific commodities showing signs of price stabilization and potential upward trends [1][3][4] - The USDA's February supply and demand report indicates adjustments in global inventory levels for various crops, impacting market dynamics [1][2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production is forecasted to decrease by 1 million tons to 1.296 billion tons, with a reduction in ending stocks ratio by 0.17 percentage points to 22.21% [14][15] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.56% and a year-on-year increase of 7.12% [17] Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a 2.5 million ton increase in global soybean production, with ending stocks rising by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 29.55% [33][34] - Domestic soybean meal prices are showing strong support, with expectations for Brazilian soybean supply to increase post-March 2026 [35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to decrease by 370,000 tons, with ending stocks ratio down by 0.10 percentage points to 33.68% [47][48] - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2531 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.78% [50] Sugar - The market anticipates a stable supply of sugar due to favorable weather conditions, with prices expected to remain weak [2][4] Cotton - Global cotton production is projected to decline, while demand is expected to rise, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance [2][4] Beef - The report forecasts a stable upward trend in U.S. beef prices, with a projected decrease in production for 2026 [3][4] - Domestic beef prices are expected to stabilize due to reduced supply and increased demand [3] Dairy - U.S. milk ending stocks are slightly adjusted upwards, with expectations for domestic milk prices to rise due to supply constraints [3][4] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase slightly, with prices anticipated to remain high [4][6] Poultry - The U.S. chicken market is expected to recover, with domestic demand supporting price stabilization [6][4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in livestock, pork, poultry, and feed sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the northern hemisphere gradually finishes the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In China, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2]. - For cotton, the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the illegal tariff policy and the high single - week export of U.S. cotton from February 5th to 12th led to a sharp rebound in U.S. cotton prices. However, Trump's decision to raise the global import tariff from 10% to 15% on February 21st is negative for cotton prices. In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the downstream industry chain after the Spring Festival [7]. - For soybeans, the expectation of China's increased purchase of U.S. soybeans has pushed up the CBOT soybean price. For China, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the rising U.S. soybean price raises the import cost. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - For oils and fats, driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The medium - term outlook for oil and fat prices is positive. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [14]. - For eggs, after the Spring Festival, the opening price is neutral, the overall inventory accumulation is limited, and the market sales are average. The supply side needs to pay attention to the scale of molting and cold - storage egg purchases. It is expected that the short - term spot price decline is limited. The near - month futures contract may form a bottom after a low - opening. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading and wait for the accumulation of contradictions. For the far - end contract, under the background that the production capacity decline is less than expected, attention should be paid to the valuation pressure [17]. - For pigs, before the Spring Festival, farmers actively sold pigs, resulting in a significant decrease in the average weight and a low inventory in散户 pens. After the Spring Festival, the reluctance to sell due to losses still exists, and the high price difference between fat and standard pigs may lead to secondary fattening and inventory - building behaviors. The decline of the spot price is limited, which may support the near - month futures contract to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the further accumulation and fermentation of contradictions [20]. Summary by Category Sugar - **Market Information**: As of the week of February 18th, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 53 to 43, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased from 1.83 million tons to 1.577 million tons. StoneX predicts a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In January 2026, China produced 3.21 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 season was 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 2.7 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1% [2]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From February 5th to 12th, the U.S. exported 106,800 tons of cotton in the current year, with a cumulative export of 1.9899 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 142,900 tons. The spinning mill's operating rate as of February 6th was 60.5%, a 3.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.53 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous week. The predicted global cotton production in 2025/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year [4]. Soybeans - **Market Information**: From February 5th to 12th, the U.S. exported 800,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 35.37 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.63 million tons. As of February 14th, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 24.7%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 2.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 30th to February 6th, the domestic sample soybean arrival volume was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons from the previous week [8]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia plans to increase its palm oil exports to the U.S. to 3 million tons in the next two years. The tariff between the U.S. and Indonesia has been reduced from 32% to 19%. In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 340,000 tons from the same period last year. The export volume was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month and 320,000 tons from the same period last year [11]. Eggs - **Market Information**: After the Spring Festival, the opening price of eggs was neutral. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was 2.8 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.3 yuan per catty from before the festival. The inventory accumulation was not large, the market sales were average, and there was a reluctance to sell at low prices. It is expected that the short - term egg price will be stable, with a slight upward trend in some areas [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: After the Spring Festival, the mainstream pig price decreased, which was in line with expectations. In the north, the demand from slaughterhouses was limited, the supply was sufficient, and the price decline was large. In the south, the local pig slaughter volume had not fully recovered, and the price decline was smaller than that in the north. After continuous price cuts in some areas, farmers were reluctant to sell, and with the increase in the number of slaughterhouses resuming work, the demand improved. In the short term, the decline of the pig price in the north may narrow, while the supply in the south continues to increase, and the pig price may continue to fall [19].