农产品日报 | 2026-01-09 郑棉期价高位回落，白糖延续窄幅震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14740元/吨，较前一日变动-295元/吨，幅度-1.96%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15738元/吨，较前一日变动+164元/吨，现货基差CF05+998，较前一日变动+459；3128B棉全国均价15992元/ 吨，较前一日变动+208元/吨，现货基差CF05+1252，较前一日变动+503。 近期市场资讯，12月巴西棉出口量为45.2万吨，环比（40.2万吨）增加12.4%，同比（35.3万吨）增加28.2%，为有 记录以来最大出口量。从当月出口目的地看，中国是主要出口目的地，出口量占总量的32%；孟加拉其次，占比18%； 巴基斯坦排第三，占比10%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价高位回落。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期IC ...

投研服务中心 2026.1 @2019 Maike Futures 豆粕 国内供应仍显宽松 国内供应仍显宽松，等待报告 指引 www.mkqh.com 国内供应仍显宽松 - 国际方面： 目前中方对美豆仍保持13%进口关税，商业性采购仍难以展开。中方对美豆采购进度不如预期，出口 乐观情绪逐渐降温。1月USDA报告看点在于美豆出口量是否会相应下调，进而令库消比回升。CBOT 大豆盘面震荡回落。巴西大豆播种工作进入尾声，部分地区已开启收割，盘面暂无天气升水，丰产预 期维持。 - 国内供需： 国内大豆库存高位，油厂豆粕现货供应仍较为充足。下游饲料企业库存较高需求有限，提货一般。油 厂豆粕继续累库，库存仍在高位。一季度国内进口大豆远期供应缺口部分修复，需观察美豆采购计划。 海关收紧到港政策的预期引发阶段性供应担忧，但在大豆、豆粕库存高位的情况下，盘面情绪易有回 落风险。 - 结论及观点： 南美大豆即将上市，CBOT大豆盘面承压震荡回落。盘面交易重心仍在国际大豆贸易流向，关注美豆 出口进度能否支撑CBOT大豆。国内大豆库存高位，油厂豆粕现货供应仍较为充足，但一季度进口大 豆存在结构性紧缺预期。蛋白粕市场震荡运行，豆粕05 ...

油脂油料：需求旺季VS供应宽松 ，油粕上方压力大 （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 12月国内外油脂油料价格偏弱运行，油脂价格先跌后涨，蛋白粕价格偏弱震荡。菜系表现强于豆系，棕 榈油先弱后强。现货表现强于期货，基差走强。 豆类方面，1月巴西马托格罗索将开始收割大豆，大豆丰产压力面临兑现时刻。当下巴西存在销售压 力，一方面因为待销售大豆量高于往年，丰产叠加前期销售慢；另一方面，巴西大豆需求支撑减弱，中 国有部分需求选择对美豆政策性采购，挤占了巴西大豆可出口量，巴西国内压榨量也不及预期。巴西12 月出口预估不断下调、升贴水回落都是侧面验证。1月在巴西大豆收割启动之际，巴西大豆价格或跌破 400美元/吨，打压全球大豆价格。美豆方面，中国继续政策性采购，采购总量预期不变但时间延长，因 为美豆价格高于巴西大豆，中国外采购量放缓。市场等待1月供需报告中对美豆产量、库存的最终定 性，以衡量美豆和巴西大豆的价差。相当来说，CBOT大豆盘面的下跌压力低于巴西大豆升贴水。国内 来说，进口成本下跌或导致期货盘面价格重心下移。但更为重要的是，一季度供需盲盒将揭晓。目前市 场对国内一季度供需预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: South American soybean growth is good with a high probability of a bumper harvest, and US soybean exports are slow, leading to weak CBOT soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, concerns about soybean customs clearance have supported domestic bean prices, but overall soybean and soybean oil supplies are sufficient, suppressing price increases. With ample supply and limited short - term bullish drivers, it is advisable to hold short positions lightly. The support level for the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 7900 - 7950 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated on Monday. The current inventory is in a destocking state. With Australian rapeseed not yet in the crushing stage, the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The near - month contract prices have risen rapidly, but the upside of the 05 contract is limited due to expected supply increases. In the short - term, it is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, supply increases and a global bumper harvest will put pressure on prices, while anti - dumping duties and high import costs provide some support. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil fluctuated weakly on Monday. The fundamentals of the main producing areas have improved slightly, but the market still expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue to accumulate in December, limiting price rebounds. With long - term deep import profit inversion and stagnant ship purchases in the past two weeks, there is some bottom support. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [2]. - **Other Products**: For other products such as soybeans, corn, and their derivatives, as well as livestock and poultry products like pigs and eggs, the report provides detailed market analyses, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, inventory situations, and market sentiment [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: The 05 contract of soybeans (domestic) is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to hold short - term long positions; the 05 contract of soybeans (imported) is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. - **Oils**: The 05 contract of soybean oil is expected to be oscillating bearishly, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see; the 05 contract of palm oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see stance [9]. - **Proteins**: The 05 contract of soybean meal is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Energy and By - products**: The 03 contract of corn is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach; the 03 contract of corn starch is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach [9]. - **Livestock Farming**: The 03 contract of pigs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; the 05 contract of eggs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [9]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: For different products, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, including waiting and seeing, positive spreads (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts), and negative spreads (selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts) [10][11]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For different product combinations, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, such as waiting and seeing, bearish operations [11]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming products [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean (port) inventory, soybean meal (oil mill) inventory, and soybean oil (port) inventory [16][17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, corn inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and starch enterprise inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It includes daily data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, price changes, and basis changes [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, breeding costs, profits, and inventory data [22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, spot prices, and related price indicators [24][25][26]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes charts related to palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, such as production, exports, inventory, and basis [33][40][48]. - **Feed**: It includes charts related to corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, such as closing prices, spot prices, basis, and inventory [51][58][63][70]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts [86][88]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [94][96][97][100][102].

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 【粕类日报】供应压力仍存 盘面阶段性反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 豆粕 | 3047 | - 5 | 天津 | 340 | 340 | 0 1 0 | | 0 5 | 2745 | 4 | 东莞 | 290 | 280 | | | 0 9 | 2863 | 6 | 张家港 | 290 | 280 | 1 0 | | | | | 日照 | 300 | 280 | 2 0 | | 0 1 | 2417 | 5 | 南通 | 3 | 8 | - 5 | | 菜粕 0 5 | 2349 | 1 2 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading the way. Cotton continued to rise, while eggs showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the downward trend remained unchanged. Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level, and sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - The three major oils rebounded from their lows, with palm oil leading. High - frequency data showed that from December 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports increased month - on - month and production decreased, boosting the palm oil rebound, but the rebound space may be limited. Cotton continued to rise due to strong downstream demand, a decline in cumulative imported cotton this year, and improved textile export expectations due to better China - US economic and trade relations [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil rebounded from its low, with a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports (up 43.6% month - on - month from December 1 - 20, 2025 according to SGS) and a decline in production (down 7.15% month - on - month from December 1 - 20 according to SPPOMA). India's cancellation of some Argentine soybean oil imports was potentially positive, and Indonesia's B50 policy provided long - term support. The palm oil futures price rebounded from its low, but the price was still in a downward trend, and the resistance level of 8466 on the 10 - day moving average needed attention [2] 3.2.2 Cotton - Cotton continued to rise. Xinjiang's new cotton was on the market, commercial inventories increased seasonally, but cotton sales rates were higher than last year, indicating strong downstream consumption. Cotton imports decreased (890,000 tons from January - November this year, a 64% year - on - year decrease). Xinjiang textile mills' product sales were smooth, with high - and medium - count yarns selling well, and the startup rate was over 90%. The improvement in China - US economic and trade relations improved cotton textile export expectations. The cotton futures price continued to rise, reaching a new four - month high. The strategy was to look for support levels to go long [3] 3.2.3 Eggs - Eggs showed near - term weakness and long - term strength. The egg - laying hen inventory was high, and overall demand was weak. The old - hen slaughter volume decreased slightly, and capacity reduction was slow. The near - month contract was under pressure from sufficient supply. The main 2602 contract fluctuated narrowly and was technically weak, and the strategy was to hold short positions [5] 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - Soybean meal rebounded from its low but the decline remained. Domestic soybeans were sufficient, with 1 - month shipping contracts mostly purchased. Cofco's continuous soybean auctions had decreasing transaction rates and prices. High soybean imports led to high - pressure oil extraction, and soybean meal inventories remained above one million tons. The main 2605 contract rebounded slightly but was still in a downward trend, and the strategy was to look for resistance levels to go short lightly [7] 3.2.5 Live Pigs - Live pigs fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The domestic pig inventory was high, and farmers were more willing to sell. There was a risk of concentrated supply due to the end - of - year sales plan of large pig farms and the concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured pigs. The demand side was not strongly supported, with mild weather and late Chinese New Year affecting pickled meat demand and substitutes diverting some pork consumption. The main 2603 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the strategy was short - term trading until a breakthrough [9] 3.2.6 Sugar - Sugar rebounded from its low but the decline was not reversed. Global sugar production in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand was expected to increase (Brazil up 2.3% to 44.7 million tons, India up 25% to 35.25 million tons, Thailand up 2% to 10.25 million tons in the 2025/26 season). In China, southern sugarcane crushing continued, and the supply pressure increased seasonally. The main 2605 contract rebounded, with some short - covering, but the downward trend remained, and the strategy was to hold short positions [11]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 l数据日报 | 指标 | | 12月19日 | 涨跌 | | ===== 16/17 | ====== 17/18 | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ====== 18/19 | == | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 97 57 | -3 7 | 2500 2000 1500 | ----- 21/22 | == | == | - 24/25 | - 25/26 | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | | 日照 | 17 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 57 | | -500 | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | | | 东莞 | 17 | 7 | | | | M1-M5 | | | | | 湛江 | 57 | | 1 ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import cost of soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside potential requires a larger - scale production reduction. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range. [3] - Palm oil's short - term inventory build - up may reverse in Q4 and Q1 next year. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the international sugar price may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. Domestic sugar prices are recommended for short - term observation. [10] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure. [13] - The near - term egg futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] - The near - term hog futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19] 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Wednesday. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons. Brazilian and Argentine main growing areas are expected to have more rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still high. [2] - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high but are entering the de - stocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [3] Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. December's first 15 - day exports decreased by 15.89% - 16.37%. Malaysia set the January palm oil reference price at 3946.17 ringgit per ton with an export tax rate of 9.5%. Domestic oils temporarily stopped falling on Wednesday. [5] - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia exceeded expectations, and export data is poor. However, the inventory build - up may reverse. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Brazilian mid - southern sugar production in the second half of November decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season and decrease in the 2026/27 season. [9] - **Strategy**: The new season's major sugar - producing countries are expected to increase production, and the global sugar market has shifted to a surplus. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended. [10] Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is estimated to be 26.08 million tons. [12] - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is not bad, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure, Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [13] Eggs - **Market Information**: Most egg prices in the country were stable yesterday, with a few areas rising. The supply is stable, and the market sales are okay. It's expected that most egg prices will be stable in the short term, with a few areas slightly stronger. [15] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mainly rose yesterday, with some areas stable or slightly falling. Some farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the demand for large hogs has increased after the temperature drop. [18] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 600 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 供给方面,根据CONAB数据,预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1. 776亿吨。截至12月5日,巴西大豆播种率为90. 3%,上周为88%,去年同 期为94.1%,五年均值为89.8%。根据BAGE,截至12月3日,阿根廷大豆播种进度44.7%,上周值36%。去年同期50%。根据天气预报,短期 无明显天气问题：12-1月国内大豆、豆箱预期季节性去库，传海关延迟放行25天，增加国内对明年一季度豆精供应的纽优,国内进口大 豆开始拍卖,成交溢价高，关注后续拍卖情况。需求方面,畜禽短期预期维持高存栏,产能去化尚不明显,支撑饲用需求,但目前养殖 | 11 结 | 利润呈现亏损,国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重。或影响远月供应；豆粕性价比有所降低:近期豆粕下游成交正常，提货表现良好。 库存方面,国内大豆、豆粕库存处于历史同期高位,豆粕库存去化慢,现货供应压力0较大。预期12-1月加速去库;本周饲料企业豆粕 | | --- | --- | | | 库存天数增加; 整体来说，美豆出口疲软,南美天气暂无明显炒作 ...