1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has been performing strongly recently. The US soybean market is expected to have stronger support and may rise further if there is positive news. The South American market has limited short - term pressure, and the prices in Brazil and Argentina are generally firm [4]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market still faces significant pressure due to high soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates. The supply is expected to remain loose, and inventory pressure is likely to persist. The domestic rapeseed meal has risen significantly due to policy factors and is expected to remain strong if policies do not change much [4][5]. - The trading strategies include a bullish stance for single - sided trading, M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **International Market**: The US soybean futures market has been strong due to the bullish monthly supply - demand report. In South America, Brazil's soybean prices have risen slightly despite a small decline after the US soybean price increase. Argentina's soybean prices are also firm, and so are the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in both countries [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market has high pressure with abundant supply and limited demand improvement. The domestic rapeseed meal has increased significantly because of policy - related restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bullish single - sided trading approach, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market has been strong due to the monthly supply - demand report. Although the yield per acre was raised, the planting area was significantly reduced, tightening the new - crop supply. The old - crop crush was also increased by 1 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels, with high uncertainty. The US soybean may rebound in the short - term, and the support at the lower level is strong [9][11]. - **South American Markets**: In Brazil, soybean export prices have slightly declined, but the overall price has increased due to the US soybean price increase. The monthly supply - demand report slightly raised production, exports, and crush. The selling progress of farmers has improved, and the export target of 106 million tons is likely to be achieved. In Argentina, soybean prices are firm, and the pressure on exports has decreased [14]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal futures market has been strong due to cost - side factors, but the spot market has high pressure. The oil mill operating rate has increased due to sufficient soybean supply, and the demand has changed little. The inventory remains high, and the futures spread is expected to weaken [17]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures market has risen significantly due to the policy decision to impose a deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports after an anti - dumping investigation. The market may remain strong if imports from Canada are completely stopped [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crush, and weekly crush profits. It also presents Brazil's monthly soybean exports and crush, Argentina's soybean exports and monthly crush, and foreign soybean basis prices [24][27][29]. - **Macro - factors**: Exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are involved, as well as international shipping freight rates. The freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have all decreased slightly [37][42]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import and weekly crush of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [48]. - **Demand**: The data shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in China [51]. - **Inventory**: The data shows the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal in China [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products, along with important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the market. It details price changes, production, consumption, and trade data to assist in understanding the market trends of these commodities [1][2][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products are provided. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices and exchange rates are given [1]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and changes of imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1产区Weather - US soybean - producing states' future weather (August 20 - 24) shows that most areas will have above - normal temperatures and half of the regions will have precipitation close to the median. The Midwest will experience temperature increases and varying precipitation patterns, which may impact crops differently [4][6]. 3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period in July according to AmSpec and ITS. Indonesia will crack down on illegal palm plantation activities. CFTC持仓 reports show changes in positions of various agricultural products. North American field surveys on corn and soybeans will be conducted. NOPA data indicates US soybean crushing and soybean oil inventory in July. Canadian and Ukrainian agricultural production and harvest progress are also reported. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index shows different trends for different types of ships [8][9][10]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 15, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal also changed, and the oil mill's开机 rate decreased slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 33rd week was lower than expected. Pig - raising profits and agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain changes [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - US economic data such as inflation expectations, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, retail sales, import prices, industrial output, and business inventory are reported [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - The RMB exchange rate, central bank's open - market operations, national economic data, monetary policy report, and a WTO lawsuit against Canada are presented [19]. 5. Capital Flows - The capital flow data of major futures varieties on August 15 are provided, including the net inflow and outflow of funds in different types of futures such as commodity futures and stock index futures [21][22]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

农产品日报 | 2025-08-14 供需报告利多，豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3163元/吨，较前日变动+72元/吨，幅度+2.33%；菜粕2509合约2723元/吨，较前 日变动+70元/吨，幅度+2.64%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3100元/吨，较前日变动+100元/吨，现货基差 M09-63，较前日变动+28；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动+80元/吨，现货基差M09-163，较前日变动+8； 广东地区豆粕现货价格2980元/吨，较前日变动跌+70元/吨，现货基差M09-183，较前日变动-2。福建地区菜粕现货 价格2690元/吨，较前日变动+70元/吨，现货基差RM09-33，较前日变动+0。 综合来看，当前新季美豆生长情况较为良好，USDA作物报告显示当前美豆生长情况为五年来的最高水平，未来天 气情况向好，新季美豆丰产预期愈发强烈。但是政策端中美仍未达成实质性进展，市场对于未来的政策预期仍有 担忧。国内方面，虽然当下国内大豆供应仍较为充足，豆粕库存仍在上升，供应端仍显宽松，但是由于宏观层面 政策端仍无进展，巴西升贴水开始上涨，进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flows. Key events include Malaysia's increase in the September export tax on crude palm oil, expected low sunflower seed production in Ukraine, and potential impacts of weather on US crops. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, and others, are presented. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar are also provided. [1] Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included. [2] Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and mostly median precipitation from August 18th to 22nd. A slow - moving front in the US Midwest will bring rain and temperature changes, which may benefit some crops but also cause flooding in some areas. [5][8] International Supply - related News - Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil for September. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for a specific period are predicted. Argentina's soybean sales data is released. Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to decline. The Baltic Dry Index has risen. [9][10][11][12] Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 13th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The national oil mill operating rate declined. Price changes of various agricultural products and livestock products are reported. [14][15][16] Macro News International News - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October are high. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut rates. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The IEA has lowered global oil demand growth forecasts. UAE's refined oil inventory has decreased. [18][19] Domestic News - The US dollar/renminbi exchange rate has decreased (renminbi appreciation). The central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's July financial statistics show the growth of M2, M1, and M0. [20] Capital Flows - On August 13th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.391 billion yuan, with 5.129 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural and chemical futures and outflows in black - series futures) and 22.262 billion yuan in stock index futures. [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The USDA August supply - demand report shows adjustments in 2025/26 soybean data for the US, Brazil, Argentina, and globally, with changes in areas, yields, production, exports, and inventories [1]. - Brazilian soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts for August have increased, and Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 have significantly increased compared to the same period last month [1]. - Kedia Advisory predicts a 3% growth in Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production, but the 2024/25 export volume may decline [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian imported rapeseed, and import operators need to pay a 75.8% margin starting from August 14, 2025 [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 US Soybean Information - The sown area is estimated at 80.9 million acres (July estimate: 83.4 million acres), the harvested area at 80.1 million acres (July estimate: 82.5 million acres) [1]. - The yield per acre is estimated at 53.6 bushels (July estimate: 52.5 bushels), and the production at 4.292 billion bushels (July estimate: 4.335 billion bushels) [1]. - Exports are estimated at 1.705 billion bushels (July estimate: 1.745 billion bushels), and the ending stocks at 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels) [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Global Soybean Information - Brazil's production is estimated at 175 million tons, and exports at 112 million tons, unchanged from July estimates [1]. - Argentina's production is estimated at 48.5 million tons (unchanged from July), and exports at 5.8 million tons (July estimate: 5 million tons) [1]. - China's imports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from July [1]. - Global production is estimated at 426.39 million tons (July estimate: 427.68 million tons), and ending stocks at 124.9 million tons (July estimate: 126.07 million tons) [1]. 3.3 August Export Forecasts for Brazil - The soybean export volume is expected to reach 8.8 million tons (previous week's estimate: 8.15 million tons), and the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 2.27 million tons (previous week's estimate: 1.74 million tons) [1]. 3.4 Malaysian Palm Oil Export Data - From August 1 - 10, 2025, the export volume of palm oil products was 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase compared to the same period last month (205,225 tons) [1]. 3.5 Indonesia's Palm Oil Situation - Affected by reduced demand from major importing countries and the B40 biodiesel blending policy, the 2024/25 export volume may drop to 22.8 million tons [1]. - Kedia Advisory predicts that the 2025/26 production will increase by 3% to 47 million tons due to favorable weather and sufficient fertilizer use [1]. 3.6 Anti - Dumping Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed - China's Ministry of Commerce has initially determined that Canadian imported rapeseed is being dumped, causing material damage to the domestic rapeseed industry [1]. - Starting from August 14, 2025, import operators need to pay a 75.8% margin to Chinese customs [1]. 3.7 Other Information - There are data on oil imports' profit, spot prices, protein meal basis, oil basis, and oil - oilseed futures price spreads, but specific numerical summaries are not provided here due to the large amount of data [1].

农产品早报 2025-08-13 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周二夜盘美豆低点上涨约 3%，USDA 意外大幅调低种植面积 250 万英亩，不过单产达历史最高 53.6 蒲/ 英亩，限制涨幅。菜粕由弱转强上演反转，情绪带动豆粕上行，商务部发布菜籽反倾销初裁结果，加拿 大菜籽进口需缴纳 75%保证金，高额保证金限制进口意愿。周一国内豆粕现货基差稳定，华东报 09-120 元/吨，豆粕成交尚可，提货较好，下游库存天数小幅上升 0.32 天至 8.37 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国 内压榨大豆 217.75 万吨，本周预计压榨 236.95 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏好。巴西方面，升贴水上涨后近两日稳定 ...

Group 1 - The Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on August 8, with corn at $4.06 per bushel, down 1.5 cents (0.37%), wheat at $5.15 per bushel, down 3.75 cents (0.72%), and soybeans at $9.88 per bushel, down 6.25 cents (0.63%) [1] - The market's focus shifted back to the significant production potential of U.S. corn and soybeans, influenced by favorable growing conditions, which severely impacted prices due to expectations of ample supply [1] - Analysts anticipate the upcoming USDA global supply and demand report to indicate a soybean production estimate of 4.365 billion bushels for the 2025/26 season, an increase from the previous estimate of 4.335 billion bushels in July [1] Group 2 - Weather forecasts predict increased rainfall in the central and eastern Midwest regions of the U.S., with a high-pressure ridge moving from the southwest to the southeast, allowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to flow into the central U.S. [2] - Temperatures in the central U.S. are expected to be near or slightly above normal levels until August 15 [2]

2025/8/8 10:46 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美⾖当周出⼝净增101.29万吨⾼于预期 Anec巴西⼤⾖8⽉出⼝料为815万吨 20250808 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2509 | 华北 | 9060 | 120 | 0 | | | 华东 | 8920 | -20 | -40 | | | 华南 | 8920 | -20 | 0 | | DCE豆油2509 | 山东 | 8500 | 110 | 90 | | | 江苏 | 8670 | 280 | 0 | | | 广东 | 8570 | 180 | -20 | | | 天津 | 8530 | 140 | 20 | | DCE豆粕2509 | 山东 | 2890 | -127 | 5 | | | 江苏 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 广东 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 天津 | 2970 | -47 | -5 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 (美分/蒲式耳) | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF ...

1. Market Review - DCE soybean meal's main 2509 contract closed at 3031 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, while coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2]. - DCE live hog's main 2509 contract closed at 13870 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous trading day, and the national average ex - farm price of ternary live hogs was 13.71 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day [2]. - CBOT US soybeans' main contract dropped 0.53% to 985 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - The Midwest planting belt in the US will have rain this week, with favorable weather conditions. There were mostly dry conditions from last Friday to Sunday, and local showers on Monday. Temperatures were below normal before Monday and will gradually rise later in the week. The growth conditions for corn and soybeans are very favorable [3][4]. 3. Macro and Industry News - Analysts expect the USDA's August global agricultural supply - demand report to show that the global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 127.42 million tons [5]. - On August 7, the import cost of US soybeans was 4433 yuan, down 23 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3884 yuan, down 42 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3686 yuan, down 32 yuan [5]. - On August 6, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume shrank. The total trading volume was 268,500 tons, down 1,689,900 tons from the previous day. The average trading price was 2988.85 yuan/ton, down 5.88 yuan/ton [5]. - Analysts expect the EU 27 and the UK's rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season to be 20.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast [5]. - Analysts expect the USDA's August report to show that the US soybean production for the 2025/26 season will be 4.365 billion bushels, up from the 4.335 billion bushels forecast in July [6]. - Analysts expect the USDA's August report to show that the US soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 season will average 347 million bushels, and 349 million bushels for the 2025/26 season [6]. - Brazil exported 12,257,325.36 tons of soybeans in July, with a daily average export volume of 532,927.19 tons, up 9% from the same period last year [6]. - In July, the northern large - scale farms' completion rate was 94 - 97%, and about 95% in the southwest. The market is expected to remain weak in the early part of the month [6]. - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 6.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93.6% [7]. - In the first seven months of this year, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year. In July, the total import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7% [7]. 4. Analysis and Strategies Soybean Meal - US soybean futures hit a new low, dragging down the overall soybean meal market. The market is awaiting the USDA's supply - demand report on August 13. US soybean ending stocks and production are expected to increase slightly, having a neutral - bearish impact [15]. - The domestic M09 contract of Dalian soybean meal is affected by the external market and oscillates downward, with support at 2970 yuan/ton. The M01 contract is relatively strong, with support at 3050 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot price of soybean meal is resistant to decline, and traders are strongly willing to hold prices. Feed enterprises' physical inventory of soybean meal is generally about a week, and their total position is maintained at 30 - 40 days [15]. Live Hogs - On the supply side, the supply may decrease at the beginning of the month and then recover. The government has proposed measures to control production capacity [18]. - On the demand side, the supply of hogs is sufficient, and the slaughterhouse's operating rate has rebounded slightly, but high temperatures still suppress demand [18]. - In the short term, the price is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly and weakly [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.