Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends in the short, medium, and long term. The prices of most products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies [1][2][4]. - In the short term, most products show a trend of price fluctuations and range - bound trading, while in the medium and long term, the prices are influenced by factors such as production capacity changes, consumption trends, and weather conditions [1][2][7]. Summary by Categories Pig - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 14.8 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.4 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15.2 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The supply pressure is gradually released, and the market has a strong sentiment to support prices. The demand for pre - holiday stocking increases, but the consumption off - season and losses of slaughterhouses limit the demand increase. The short - term price is supported at a low level and the volatility intensifies [1]. - **Medium - and Long - term Outlook**: From May to September 2024, the supply increases. From November 2024 to February 2025, the pressure on second - quarter shipments is large. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price still has a downward risk. From December 2024, the production capacity is reduced, but the reduction is limited, and the long - term price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is in a low - level range. The 07 contract has a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13100; the 09 contract has a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13300 - 13400. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then go short [1]. Egg - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.8 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.09 yuan/jin (down 0.09 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term Outlook**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is relieved, which supports the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large, and the weather is unfavorable for storage, so the price is under pressure [2]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: From June to August 2025, the number of newly - laid hens will increase, and the supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the newly - laid hens may decrease month - on - month. Pay attention to the molting, elimination, and chicken diseases in the third quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after June and pay attention to the pressure performance at 3020 - 3060; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a short - biased approach and wait for the price to rebound to go short. The 08 contract pays attention to the pressure at 3750 - 3800; the 10 contract pays attention to the opportunity to go long at a low price [2][4]. Oil Palm Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national palm oil price changed by 20 - 80 yuan/ton to 8610 - 8710 yuan/ton [4]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From May 1 - 25, the export data improved, and the production increase slowed down. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected, but the long - term inventory accumulation is a trend. The upgrade of the biodiesel blending standard will benefit domestic consumption. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the 08 contract will operate in the range of 3800 - 4000 [5]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: The arrival volume in May and June is expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month. The inventory recovery is slow, but the inventory is expected to recover in the future [5]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national soybean oil price changed by 0 - 10 yuan/ton to 7920 - 8030 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The postponement of tariffs on the EU reduces macro risks. The heavy rainfall in Argentina and the possible slowdown of sowing in the US support the price of US soybeans, but the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies and the fast sowing progress limit the increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short term [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The arrival volume of soybeans from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the future inventory is expected to increase [6]. Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national rapeseed oil price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 9400 - 9830 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing is accelerating, and the passage of the 45Z Act is beneficial. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The current inventory is at a historically high level, and the supply pressure is large. The anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed restricts procurement, and the inventory is expected to decrease in the future. Pay attention to the result of the anti - dumping investigation [7]. - **Overall Strategy**: In the short term, the overall trend of oils is fluctuating. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils operate in the ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Pay attention to the strategy of widening the price differences of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the domestic soybean meal futures M2509 contract closed at 2962 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The smooth sowing of US soybeans and the bumper harvest in South America suppress the price, but the low carry - over inventory provides support. The domestic supply increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The import cost of US soybeans increases, and the supply in the domestic off - season decreases. The domestic price is expected to be strong due to the increase in cost and the tightening of supply [8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract operates in the range of [2900, 3000] in the short term and goes long on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (stable), and the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2456 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The increase in supply slows down the price increase, but the reduction of grassroots grain sources and the reduction of inventory support the price [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply in the 24/25 season is expected to be tight, but the supply of substitutes limits the price increase [9]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and goes long on dips at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9][10]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Unit | Last Trading Day's Closing Price | Two Trading Days Ago's Closing Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.75 | 1,048.50 | 2.25 | | Soybean Meal Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,962 | 2,961 | 1.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | (Yuan/ton) | 2,930 | 2,940 | - 10.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | (US cents/bushel) | 447.00 | 450.75 | - 3.75 | | Corn Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,332 | 2,325 | 7.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 2,320 | 2,320 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | (US cents/pound) | 48.39 | 48.88 | - 0.49 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | (Yuan/ton) | 8,050 | 8,050 | 0.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | (Ringgit/ton) | 3,928 | 3,899 | 29.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 8,700 | 8,600 | 100.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | (Canadian dollars/ton) | 715.50 | 730.80 | - 15.30 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 9,420 | 9,410 | 10.00 | | Egg Main | (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,916 | 2,882 | 34.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | (Yuan/jin) | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 | | Live Pig Futures Main | (Yuan/ton) | 13,640 | 13,560 | 80.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | (Yuan/kg) | 14.59 | 14.59 | 0.00 | [11]