油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/20 年美国大豆生产成本预测总计为 美国农业部（USDA）公布，2025年美国大豆生产成本预测总计为639.15美元 英亩，2026年美国大豆生产成本预测 总计为650.34美元 英亩。 月棕榈油订单，因为价格飙升 四位贸易商表示，受马来西亚基准棕榈油价格突然飙升影响，印度炼厂取消了原定于7-9月交付的6.5万吨毛棕榈油 （CPO）订单。 过去三天，马来西亚BMD毛棕榈油期货价格上涨逾6%，印度的炼油厂纷纷取消订单，通过锁定利润来对冲价格下跌 的风险。 一位在西海岸经营炼油厂并取消了 月交付的货物的印度买家表示："市场波动很大，取消购买的毛棕榈油比进 口、精炼并在当地市场销售精炼棕榈油的利润更高。" 不到一个月前，在棕榈油产量反弹导致价格跌至八个多月以来最低水平后，印度买家以每吨约1,000-1,030美元的 价格（包括成本、保险和运费）购买了毛棕榈油。 本周，棕榈油期货上涨，追随CBOT豆油期货的涨势，此前美国提议提高生物燃料的掺混量。 消息人士称，棕榈油价格的突然上涨促使印度炼油厂取消了每吨1,050-1,065美元之间的合同，每吨获利超过30 元。 一位 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 叶 天 咨询电话：027-65777093 从业编号：F03089203 投资咨询编号：Z0020750 5 月 30 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-14.8 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.2-15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳定为 主。5 月中下旬养殖端加快出栏节奏，生猪出栏体重高位回落，供应压力逐 步释放，月底月末养殖端或惜售，且局部地区调运政策影响，市场挺价情绪 增强，低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存。需求端，临近端午节备货需求增加，不 过天气转热，猪肉消费淡季，且屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，短期供需 继续博弈，猪价低位存支撑，震荡加剧，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情 况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性 能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On the evening of March 27, the US government asked oil and biofuel producers to reach an agreement on the next stage of the national biofuel policy. The preliminary agreement on increasing the total biofuel blending volume is expected to boost the future biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. This event led to a significant increase in US soybean oil and domestic oils and fats [1][5]. - The meeting participants basically agreed to significantly increase the biofuel blending requirements. The current EPA - regulated total blending volume of biodiesel + renewable diesel in 2025 is 3.35 billion gallons, and the discussed blending range is between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, corresponding to an incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons. This is very beneficial for the long - term biodiesel demand of US soybean oil [2][5]. - In the short term, this news will stimulate the collective rebound of domestic oils and fats by boosting the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil will perform the strongest, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be less affected. In the long term, if the EPA raises the biofuel blending volume, it will support the prices of US soybean oil and the overall oils and fats market, but the actual support depends on the specific policy terms [3][20]. Summary by Related Content Impact on US Biofuel Policy and Demand - Before this event, the market was pessimistic about the US biodiesel policy in the Trump era. But now, the expectation is shaken as the meeting participants agreed to increase the blending requirements. The incremental blending volume of 1.4 - 2.15 billion gallons will significantly boost the biodiesel demand for various vegetable oils [5][6]. - There are uncertainties in the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, including limited raw material supply and pressing capacity, disputes over small refinery RFS exemptions, and the absence of tax credit policies [2][15]. Impact on Different Raw Materials - Although the US biodiesel has diverse raw material sources, considering the 45Z Act and trade disputes, the increase in blending volume is most beneficial for the price of domestic raw material, i.e., US soybean oil [2][10]. - The incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons corresponds to an incremental soybean oil demand of 1.82 - 2.8 million tons. Considering the supply gap transfer, the data will be higher. The incremental soybean demand can be met through domestic soybean expansion, transfer of export demand to pressing demand, or imports, but each method has limitations [2][12][13]. Market Impact and Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, from April, the oils and fats market will face supply pressure, but there are also positive factors that will disturb the decline. Rapeseed oil will show relatively strong oscillations. In the long term, in the third quarter of 25/26, soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to lead the oils and fats market to stop falling and rebound [21]. - For trading strategies, the 05 contracts of soybean and palm oils are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7700 - 8200 and 8700 - 9200 respectively. It is recommended to operate within the ranges and pay attention to the inventory inflection point of palm oil and soybean arrivals. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the pressure at 9300. For arbitrage, focus on the strategy of expanding the spreads of 09 contracts of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean oils [21].