Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The USDA predicts the total production cost of US soybeans in 2025 to be $639.15 per acre and $650.34 per acre in 2026 [1]. - Due to the sudden surge in the Malaysian benchmark palm oil price, Indian refineries cancelled 65,000 tons of crude palm oil (CPO) orders scheduled for delivery from July - September. The price of Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose by over 6% in the past three days, and Indian refineries cancelled orders to hedge against price - decline risks by locking in profits [1]. - Despite the order cancellations, Indian palm oil imports are expected to rebound in the next few months as its recent imports have been far below the average, leading to a decline in inventory [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Contents US Soybean Production Cost - The predicted total production cost of US soybeans in 2025 is $639.15 per acre, and in 2026 it is $650.34 per acre [1]. Indian Palm Oil Orders - Four traders said Indian refineries cancelled 65,000 tons of CPO orders for July - September delivery due to the price surge. The price of Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose over 6% in the past three days. Indian refineries cancelled orders to lock in profits and hedge against price - decline risks [1]. - Less than a month ago, Indian buyers purchased CPO at about $1,000 - $1,030 per ton. This week, palm oil futures followed the rise of CBOT soybean oil futures after the US proposed to increase biofuel blending. Indian refineries cancelled contracts at $1,050 - $1,065 per ton, making a profit of over $30 per ton [1]. - The price of CPO delivered to India in July is about $1,070 per ton, compared to $1,020 - $1,030 per ton a month ago [1]. Indian Palm Oil Imports - Indian palm oil imports are expected to rebound in the next few months as its recent imports have been far below the average, leading to a decline in inventory. Indian palm oil imports in July reached a six - month high due to low inventory and prices lower than those of competing soybean oil and sunflower oil [1]. Imported Soybean Crushing Profit, Oil Import Profit, and Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal in Jiangsu | Rapeseed Meal in Guangdong | Soybean Oil in Jiangsu | Palm Oil in Guangzhou | Rapeseed Oil in Jiangsu | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/06/13 | 2850 | 2550 | 8080 | 8460 | 9530 | | 2025/06/16 | 2870 | 2540 | 8230 | 8720 | 9690 | | 2025/06/17 | 2900 | 2550 | 8240 | 8710 | 9780 | | 2025/06/18 | 2900 | 2560 | 8300 | 8780 | 9910 | | 2025/06/19 | 2910 | 2560 | 8380 | - | 9900 | [1][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends in the short, medium, and long term. The prices of most products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies [1][2][4]. - In the short term, most products show a trend of price fluctuations and range - bound trading, while in the medium and long term, the prices are influenced by factors such as production capacity changes, consumption trends, and weather conditions [1][2][7]. Summary by Categories Pig - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 14.8 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.4 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15.2 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The supply pressure is gradually released, and the market has a strong sentiment to support prices. The demand for pre - holiday stocking increases, but the consumption off - season and losses of slaughterhouses limit the demand increase. The short - term price is supported at a low level and the volatility intensifies [1]. - **Medium - and Long - term Outlook**: From May to September 2024, the supply increases. From November 2024 to February 2025, the pressure on second - quarter shipments is large. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price still has a downward risk. From December 2024, the production capacity is reduced, but the reduction is limited, and the long - term price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is in a low - level range. The 07 contract has a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13100; the 09 contract has a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13300 - 13400. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then go short [1]. Egg - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.8 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.09 yuan/jin (down 0.09 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term Outlook**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is relieved, which supports the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large, and the weather is unfavorable for storage, so the price is under pressure [2]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: From June to August 2025, the number of newly - laid hens will increase, and the supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the newly - laid hens may decrease month - on - month. Pay attention to the molting, elimination, and chicken diseases in the third quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after June and pay attention to the pressure performance at 3020 - 3060; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a short - biased approach and wait for the price to rebound to go short. The 08 contract pays attention to the pressure at 3750 - 3800; the 10 contract pays attention to the opportunity to go long at a low price [2][4]. Oil Palm Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national palm oil price changed by 20 - 80 yuan/ton to 8610 - 8710 yuan/ton [4]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From May 1 - 25, the export data improved, and the production increase slowed down. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected, but the long - term inventory accumulation is a trend. The upgrade of the biodiesel blending standard will benefit domestic consumption. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the 08 contract will operate in the range of 3800 - 4000 [5]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: The arrival volume in May and June is expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month. The inventory recovery is slow, but the inventory is expected to recover in the future [5]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national soybean oil price changed by 0 - 10 yuan/ton to 7920 - 8030 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The postponement of tariffs on the EU reduces macro risks. The heavy rainfall in Argentina and the possible slowdown of sowing in the US support the price of US soybeans, but the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies and the fast sowing progress limit the increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short term [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The arrival volume of soybeans from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the future inventory is expected to increase [6]. Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national rapeseed oil price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 9400 - 9830 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing is accelerating, and the passage of the 45Z Act is beneficial. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The current inventory is at a historically high level, and the supply pressure is large. The anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed restricts procurement, and the inventory is expected to decrease in the future. Pay attention to the result of the anti - dumping investigation [7]. - **Overall Strategy**: In the short term, the overall trend of oils is fluctuating. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils operate in the ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Pay attention to the strategy of widening the price differences of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the domestic soybean meal futures M2509 contract closed at 2962 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The smooth sowing of US soybeans and the bumper harvest in South America suppress the price, but the low carry - over inventory provides support. The domestic supply increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The import cost of US soybeans increases, and the supply in the domestic off - season decreases. The domestic price is expected to be strong due to the increase in cost and the tightening of supply [8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract operates in the range of [2900, 3000] in the short term and goes long on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (stable), and the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2456 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The increase in supply slows down the price increase, but the reduction of grassroots grain sources and the reduction of inventory support the price [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply in the 24/25 season is expected to be tight, but the supply of substitutes limits the price increase [9]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and goes long on dips at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9][10]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Unit | Last Trading Day's Closing Price | Two Trading Days Ago's Closing Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.75 | 1,048.50 | 2.25 | | Soybean Meal Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,962 | 2,961 | 1.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | (Yuan/ton) | 2,930 | 2,940 | - 10.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | (US cents/bushel) | 447.00 | 450.75 | - 3.75 | | Corn Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,332 | 2,325 | 7.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 2,320 | 2,320 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | (US cents/pound) | 48.39 | 48.88 | - 0.49 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | (Yuan/ton) | 8,050 | 8,050 | 0.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | (Ringgit/ton) | 3,928 | 3,899 | 29.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 8,700 | 8,600 | 100.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | (Canadian dollars/ton) | 715.50 | 730.80 | - 15.30 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 9,420 | 9,410 | 10.00 | | Egg Main | (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,916 | 2,882 | 34.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | (Yuan/jin) | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 | | Live Pig Futures Main | (Yuan/ton) | 13,640 | 13,560 | 80.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | (Yuan/kg) | 14.59 | 14.59 | 0.00 | [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Daily Trading Strategy - Production Date: April 2, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Zhang Na (F03104186/Z0021294), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) - Report Issuing Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: The international biodiesel policy boosts the sector, but the US policy mainly affects 2026 and later. Palm oil supply is rising but may be affected by weather, with weak demand and potential inventory accumulation. Domestic demand is weak, and the 05 contract is near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high. Soybean oil is affected by multiple factors, with the 05 contract in short - term oscillation and expected to be weak in April [3][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Domestic weekly production is rising, supply pressure persists, and inventory is increasing. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 73,000 - 78,000 yuan [7]. - **Copper**: Market sentiment is affected by macro uncertainties, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are many uncertainties in the market. Although there is downward pressure, due to various factors, it is recommended to hold long positions [14][15]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][19]. - **PP**: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. - **Plastic**: Supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract basis at high prices [21][23]. - **PVC**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. - **Soybean Meal**: International supply pressure is high, and domestic supply is gradually improving. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [27]. - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [29][30]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 1865 - 1910 [31]. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Palm oil rose 2.04%, soybean oil 0.66%, and rapeseed oil 1.69% [3]. - **International Factors**: The US plans to increase biofuel blending, and there are weather warnings in palm oil - producing areas. Indian palm oil imports increased in March [3]. - **Domestic Factors**: Palm oil import profit is inverted, demand is weak, and inventory is low. Soybean oil production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell high for the 05 palm oil contract; the 05 soybean oil contract is expected to be weak in April [3][6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price fell 1.25% to 73,723.30 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [7]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is high with some small - factory production cuts. Demand is growing, and inventory is increasing but at a slower rate [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the spread after concentrated warrant cancellation, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the 73,000 - 78,000 yuan range [7]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated and declined [13]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply may decrease slightly in April, demand in the peak season is less than expected, and inventory has increased slightly [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. Crude Oil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: OPEC+ is increasing production, US production is slightly up, and global demand and inventory are complex. There are many geopolitical factors [14][15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [15]. Asphalt - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level [16][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [19]. PP - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Downstream demand is slowly recovering, supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and inventory is at a medium - low level [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. Plastic - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is increasing with new production and some maintenance, demand recovery is slow, and inventory is at a medium - low level [21][23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short the 05 contract basis at high prices [23]. PVC - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and inventory is slowly decreasing [24]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The price rose 0.57% [25]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: International supply pressure is high, domestic supply is improving, and demand is weak [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [26]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and inventory is increasing [27]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate in the 750 - 810 yuan/ton range [27]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, with slow rebar de - stocking and good hot - rolled coil de - stocking [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is expected to oscillate [28]. Coking Coal - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but demand lacks elasticity [29][30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [30]. Urea - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is slightly easing, demand is affected by price, and inventory is decreasing [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the 1865 - 1910 range [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On the evening of March 27, the US government asked oil and biofuel producers to reach an agreement on the next stage of the national biofuel policy. The preliminary agreement on increasing the total biofuel blending volume is expected to boost the future biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. This event led to a significant increase in US soybean oil and domestic oils and fats [1][5]. - The meeting participants basically agreed to significantly increase the biofuel blending requirements. The current EPA - regulated total blending volume of biodiesel + renewable diesel in 2025 is 3.35 billion gallons, and the discussed blending range is between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, corresponding to an incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons. This is very beneficial for the long - term biodiesel demand of US soybean oil [2][5]. - In the short term, this news will stimulate the collective rebound of domestic oils and fats by boosting the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil will perform the strongest, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be less affected. In the long term, if the EPA raises the biofuel blending volume, it will support the prices of US soybean oil and the overall oils and fats market, but the actual support depends on the specific policy terms [3][20]. Summary by Related Content Impact on US Biofuel Policy and Demand - Before this event, the market was pessimistic about the US biodiesel policy in the Trump era. But now, the expectation is shaken as the meeting participants agreed to increase the blending requirements. The incremental blending volume of 1.4 - 2.15 billion gallons will significantly boost the biodiesel demand for various vegetable oils [5][6]. - There are uncertainties in the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, including limited raw material supply and pressing capacity, disputes over small refinery RFS exemptions, and the absence of tax credit policies [2][15]. Impact on Different Raw Materials - Although the US biodiesel has diverse raw material sources, considering the 45Z Act and trade disputes, the increase in blending volume is most beneficial for the price of domestic raw material, i.e., US soybean oil [2][10]. - The incremental raw material demand of 5.2034 - 7.991 million tons corresponds to an incremental soybean oil demand of 1.82 - 2.8 million tons. Considering the supply gap transfer, the data will be higher. The incremental soybean demand can be met through domestic soybean expansion, transfer of export demand to pressing demand, or imports, but each method has limitations [2][12][13]. Market Impact and Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, from April, the oils and fats market will face supply pressure, but there are also positive factors that will disturb the decline. Rapeseed oil will show relatively strong oscillations. In the long term, in the third quarter of 25/26, soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to lead the oils and fats market to stop falling and rebound [21]. - For trading strategies, the 05 contracts of soybean and palm oils are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7700 - 8200 and 8700 - 9200 respectively. It is recommended to operate within the ranges and pay attention to the inventory inflection point of palm oil and soybean arrivals. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the pressure at 9300. For arbitrage, focus on the strategy of expanding the spreads of 09 contracts of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean oils [21].