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饲料养殖周度报告-20250912
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 12:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the price of US soybeans and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans support from the import cost side, so soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the oil mill's operating rate remains low, and the demand - side support is limited, so it should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [37]. - In the long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean sector is limited [38]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Futures Weekly Change | Futures Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | Spot Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Spot Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Spot Weekly Change | Spot Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 3088 | 3066 | 22 | 0.72 | 2990 | 2990 | 0 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal | 2567 | 2521 | 46 | 1.82 | 2620 | 2580 | 40 | 1.55 | | Corn | 2202 | 2193 | 9 | 0.41 | 2320 | 2310 | 10 | 0.43 | | Live Pigs | 13320 | 13550 | - 230 | - 1.70 | 13.5 | 13.96 | - 0.46 | - 3.30 | | Eggs | 3044 | 3011 | 33 | 1.10 | 3.53 | 3.19 | 0.34 | 10.66 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: The temperature in the Midwest of the US will be higher than normal from the weekend to early next week, and rainfall will also increase. The dry weather in the southern and eastern regions continues to have an adverse impact on corn and soybean crops. As of the week of September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybean crops was 64%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, slightly lower than 65% in the same period in 2024 but higher than the five - year average of 59%. Brazilian soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7430000 tons, 44% higher than in September 2024. The estimated soybean output in Argentina's 2025/2026 season is 47000000 tons [9]. - **Supply**: From January to August 2025, China's total soybean imports reached 7331200 tons, a 4.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Demand**: Since September, as the temperature drops, the operating rate of the terminal aquaculture industry has gradually recovered, the rigid demand for soybean meal has recovered, and the market's enthusiasm for purchasing soybean meal has increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The current national oil mill's soybean meal inventory pressure is significant, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 is common. As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 116000 tons, an increase of 9700 tons from the previous week, a 9.09% increase [9]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Import**: As of September 11, the CNF Brazilian soybean import price was 485.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF US West soybean import price was 442.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Pressing**: As of the week of September 11, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of September 05, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean pressing volume was 2354800 tons, a decrease of 42700 tons from the previous week. As of September 05, the domestic soybean oil mill's operating rate was 60%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week [19][21]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of September 12, the imported soybean port inventory was 6635600 tons, a decrease of 142900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past 5 years. As of September 5, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1063900 tons, an increase of 49000 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of September 05, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 92200 tons, a decrease of 39300 tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past 5 years [28]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profits No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Before the release of the USDA supply - demand report this Friday, US soybeans will fluctuate, and domestic double - meal will also maintain a fluctuating trend. The demand from China, the largest importer of US soybeans, is weak, and the market generally expects the US soybean yield forecast to be lowered. In the domestic spot market, the trading sentiment in the soybean meal spot market has recovered, and the oil mill's spot transactions have increased slightly, but traders are still in a slight loss [37]. - For rapeseed meal, currently affected by the decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports, the oil mill's operating level is low. Spot transactions are average, the demand side has not yet recovered, the substitution effect of soybean meal still exists, the aquaculture industry's prosperity is low, and downstream procurement is cautious [37]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the producing area's weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [39].
饲料养殖周度报告-20250829
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 12:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. With US soybean facing pressure from high - yield expectations and domestic supply remaining loose, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations for soybean meal. For rapeseed meal, although port and coastal oil mill inventories are decreasing, weak terminal demand exists, so pay attention to trade flow changes [45]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The futures主力合约 (M2601) closed at 3039 on August 28, 2025, down 121 from August 20, a 3.83% drop. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980, down 40 from August 20, a 1.32% drop [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures主力合约 (RM601) closed at 2483 on August 28, 2025, down 144 from August 20, a 5.48% drop. The average spot price of rapeseed meal in China was 2540, down 80 from August 20, a 3.05% drop [4]. - **Corn**: The futures主力合约 (C2511) closed at 2185 on August 28, 2025, up 15 from August 20, a 0.69% increase. The spot price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310, unchanged from August 20 [4]. - **Pig**: The futures主力合约 (LH2511) closed at 13590 on August 28, 2025, down 185 from August 20, a 1.34% drop. The spot price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.64, down 0.05 from August 20, a 0.37% drop [4]. - **Egg**: The futures主力合约 (JD2510) closed at 2930 on August 28, 2025, down 142 from August 20, a 4.62% drop. The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.22, down 0.02 from August 20, a 0.62% drop [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: In August, the weather in the core production areas such as the US plains and the Midwest was favorable, and the overall good - quality rate of soybeans remained high. The latest US crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US soybeans rose from 68% the previous week to 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. September is gradually entering the early harvest stage, and the weather trading window is narrowing [11]. - **US Soybeans**: Entering the early harvest stage in September, focus on US soybean export demand [11]. - **Brazil**: On August 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.9 million tons, slightly lower than the previous week's estimate of 8.94 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be an 11.5% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024 but lower than the export volume of 12.02 million tons in July this year [11]. - **Argentina**: On August 28, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina slowed down last week. As of August 20, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.9 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, 390,000 tons higher than a week ago, compared with 26.14 million tons in the same period in 2024. Last week, the sales volume was 820,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a 13.9% year - on - year increase. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year decrease. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [11]. - **Demand** - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 22, the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. The soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from the previous week, a 0.31% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 394,000 tons, a 5.46% decrease. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.8% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 445,300 tons, a 29.71% decrease [11]. - **Transaction**: On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 106,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: As of August 22, the cumulative soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 7.1 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will pick up next week, the soybean pressing volume will rise to about 2.5 million tons, and the soybean meal output will increase. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills may rise above 1.1 million tons by the end of August [11]. Supply Side - Import - As of August 28, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 484.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 453.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars per ton from the previous week [19]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending August 28, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 22, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4402 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 22, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, the same as the previous week [24]. Inventory Side - As of August 29, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8546 million tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a low level in the past five years. As of August 22, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 985,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a medium level in the past five years [27]. Demand Side - As of August 22, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 155,000 tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in the past five years [33]. Pig Supply and Demand No specific content provided for further summary. Pig Slaughter and Breeding Profit No specific content provided for further summary. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - term**: Trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. For soybean meal, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations; for rapeseed meal, focus on trade flow changes [45]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning Focus on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].
8月27日沪深两市涨停分析
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 07:44
Group 1: Company Performance - Nengke Technology reported a net profit growth of 18.75% year-on-year in its mid-year report, focusing on smart manufacturing and developing a comprehensive product system that includes AI applications across various industrial scenarios [2][3] - Jianye Technology achieved a net profit growth of 51.12% year-on-year, supplying high-speed optical modules to Microsoft, with 800G products in small batch delivery [2] - Lianhua Technology, a leader in custom production of pesticide intermediates, reported a staggering net profit growth of 1481.94% year-on-year [2] - Xianggang Technology, a provider of integrated solutions in printing and packaging, saw a net profit increase of 432.14% year-on-year [2] - Dongpeng Holdings, primarily engaged in ceramics and sanitary ware, reported a net profit growth of 3.85% year-on-year, significantly up from the first quarter [2] - Aonong Bio reported a net profit of 361 million, marking a turnaround from losses [2] - Qiming Information, under FAW Group, reported a net profit growth of 2568.5% year-on-year, focusing on digital operations and smart marketing [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The State Council issued an opinion on the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming for over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and applications by 2027 [2][4] - The demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers is increasing, with companies like Huangma Technology focusing on organic silicon modified polyether as a supplier for immersion cooling liquids [4] - The agricultural sector is seeing significant developments, with Aonong Co. reporting a net profit of 361 million, indicating a recovery in the agricultural products market [5] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - Ge'ern Automotive has entered a strategic partnership with NVIDIA to develop control systems for robots, covering the entire range of NVIDIA's Jetson series [3] - Magmi Technology has formed a partnership with NVIDIA to become a designated supplier of data center components, actively participating in the design and construction of NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture [4]
饲料养殖周度报告-20250822
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is recommended to focus on short - term trading for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, pay attention to the results of crop inspections as there are rumors that US soybeans may enter China through state reserves. For rapeseed meal, focus on the changes in China - Australia and China - Canada trade flows due to restricted imports of Canadian rapeseed in the future [45]. - In the medium - to long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing prices of most futures main contracts in the feed and livestock industry decreased last week. For example, the M2601 soybean meal contract closed at 3113 yuan on August 21, down 50 yuan from August 13, a decrease of 1.58%. The RM601 rapeseed meal contract closed at 2561 yuan, down 127 yuan, a decrease of 4.72%. The C2511 corn contract closed at 2166 yuan, down 113 yuan, a decrease of 4.96%. The LH2511 live pig contract closed at 13765 yuan, down 280 yuan, a decrease of 1.99%. The JD2510 egg contract closed at 3010 yuan, down 267 yuan, a decrease of 8.15% [4]. - The spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while others decreased. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3020 yuan, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2580 yuan, down 70 yuan, a decrease of 2.64%. The price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan, unchanged. The average slaughter price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.6 yuan, down 0.14 yuan, a decrease of 1.02%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.19 yuan, up 0.12 yuan, an increase of 3.91% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: From August 24 to 28, the temperature in the main soybean - producing states in the US was lower than normal, and precipitation was mostly close to or higher than the median [10]. - US Soybeans: On the last day of the Pro Farmer crop inspection, inspectors reported that the corn yield potential and soybean pod number in Iowa reached the highest level in at least 22 years. As of August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations and the previous week, and the same as the same period in 2024 [10]. - Brazil: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.8 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate of 8.15 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be a 10.3% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024, but lower than the 12 million tons in July this year. The total soybean exports in the first eight months of this year will reach 88.55 million tons [10]. - Argentina: The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina was basically stable last week. As of August 13, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.51 million tons of soybeans for the 2024/25 season, 820,000 tons more than the previous week, compared with 25.64 million tons in the same period in 2024 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: As of the end of the 33rd week (August 16), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.64%, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week. The total soybean pressing volume of national oil mills was 2.4168 million tons, an increase of 77,900 tons from the previous week. The pressing volume of domestic soybeans was 10,500 tons, and that of imported soybeans was 2.4063 million tons [10]. - Transaction: The transaction volume of soybean meal continued to recover, but the transaction price declined slightly. On August 21, the transaction volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 149,950 tons, an increase of 38,450 tons from the previous day. The spot transaction volume was 45,950 tons, a decrease of 19,550 tons from the previous day. The basis transaction volume was 104,000 tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3085.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Oil Mill Inventory: The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted on August 20 that the operating rate in August would remain at a high level, with the soybean pressing volume close to 10 million tons and the soybean meal output around 8 million tons, higher than the average of the past three years. The average monthly consumption in August was 7.7 million tons. However, due to the accelerated downstream pick - up speed, the inventory accumulation rhythm of oil mills had slowed down. It was expected that the commercial inventory of soybean meal in major national oil mills would rise to around 1.1 million tons in August, and the inventory pressure on oil mills was relatively high [10]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 Import - As of August 21, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 488.00 US dollars/ton. The CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 457.00 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton from the previous week [15][18]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of August 21, the soybean pressing profit was 190.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.80 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of August 15, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4227 million tons, an increase of 63,700 tons from the previous week. As of August 15, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of August 21, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8832 million tons, an increase of 50,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory was at a low level in the past five years. As of August 15, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 974,000 tons, an increase of 13,100 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills was at a medium level in the past five years [27]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 8, the average daily transaction volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 416,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [30]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand - Not provided in the content 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profit - Not provided in the content 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Focus on short - term trading for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Pay attention to the results of crop inspections for soybean meal and the changes in China - Australia and China - Canada trade flows for rapeseed meal [45]. - Medium - to long - term: Due to the abundant global soybean supply, the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Focus on the weather in producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].
饲料养殖周度报告-20250815
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA供需 report was unexpectedly bullish, causing US soybeans to return above 1000 cents. Under the influence of anti - dumping measures on domestic rapeseed, the performance of double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was differentiated, with rapeseed meal showing more volatility and soybean meal remaining relatively stable due to import cost support [35]. - Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and oil mills have high soybean meal inventories. Downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [35]. - In the short term, influenced by the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - In the long term, the global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, the closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract (M2601) was 3157 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from August 6; the main rapeseed meal futures contract (RM509) was 2686 yuan/ton, down 2.15%; the main corn futures contract (C2511) was 2281 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the main live hog futures contract (LH2511) was 13900 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the main egg futures contract (JD2510) was 3189 yuan/ton, down 5.60% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 14, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3000 yuan/ton, up 3.81% from August 6; the average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2600 yuan/ton, down 2.26%; the aggregated price of second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average daily slaughter price of commercial hogs in Henan was 13.76 yuan/kg, down 1.43%; the average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 5.50% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: In the next 6 - 10 days, most areas in the main US soybean - producing states will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and half of the areas will have precipitation close to the median. The USDA's August report showed that although the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the sown area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels, reaching the sixth - highest in history. The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 351 million bushels and the July forecast of 310 million bushels, hitting a three - year low. In July, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.25 million tons, a record high for the same period. From January to July, Brazil's cumulative exports of oil crops reached 77.2 million tons, the first time to exceed this level in the same period of previous years. As of August 6, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 28.83 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 870,000 tons more than a week ago [7]. - **Supply - Import**: Affected by Brazil's strong exports and concerns about supply due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, China's soybean imports in July reached a record high for the same period for the third consecutive month. In July, China imported 11.67 million tons of soybeans, a 4.8% decrease from June but still the highest for the same period in history, an 18.5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total soybean imports in the first seven months of this year reached 61.04 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. The market expects soybean imports in August and September to remain above 10 million tons, with most coming from Brazil. However, China has not booked any US soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential supply shortage [7]. - **Demand - Pressing and Transaction**: As of the week ending August 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume was 73,700 tons, 2900 tons less than the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 28,700 tons. The weekly average showed that the total soybean meal transaction volume was 511,980 tons, and the spot transaction volume was 70,920 tons. Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil mills have high soybean meal inventories, and downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 8, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons, an 8.38% increase from the previous week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period in 2024; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a 3.66% decrease from the previous week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period in 2024 [7]. 3.3 Supply - end - **Import**: As of August 14, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 497.00 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton from the previous week [11][12]. - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 14, the soybean crushing profit was 209.40 yuan/ton, up 56.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.359 million tons, up 129,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 8, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 60%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end - As of August 14, the imported soybean port inventory was 6.7355 million tons, a decrease of 108,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a near - five - year low. As of August 1, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 960,900 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the domestic mainstream oil mill's soybean meal inventory is at a near - five - year medium level [18]. 3.5 Demand - end - As of August 8, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at domestic mainstream oil mills was 500,700 tons, an increase of 222,400 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a near - five - year high level [22]. 3.6 Pig - end No specific content was provided for analysis in the given text. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Due to the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - Long - term: The global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus includes the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [38].
饲料养殖周度报告-20250801
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 11:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the strong Brazilian premium supports the import cost. The soybean meal is waiting for a direction at the 3000 mark. The rapeseed meal has rigid demand support and intensified fluctuations, suitable for short - term trading [46]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, and the trade prospects are easing, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of major feed and livestock futures and spot contracts mostly declined in the week from July 23 to July 31, 2025. For example, the M2509 soybean meal futures contract fell from 3095 to 3000, a decrease of 95 or 3%; the RM509 rapeseed meal futures contract dropped from 2758 to 2699, a decrease of 59 or 2% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and Chinese demand is weak. The USDA's export sales report shows that US soybean export sales increased in the week ending July 24, 2025. Brazil's expected soybean exports in August decreased to 550 million tons, and Argentina lowered soybean and related product export taxes [10]. - **Supply**: In June 2025, China imported 1226.4 million tons of soybeans, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 4937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [10]. - **Demand**: On July 30, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October shipment was - 43 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 45 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. On July 31, the total bean - meal sales of major domestic oil mills was 43.60 million tons, with the operating rate of 62.79%, down 0.08% from the previous day [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the domestic soybean - meal inventory was 107.5 million tons, up 5.5 million tons or 5.34% from the previous week. It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in July will be about 1000 million tons, remaining at a historical high [10]. 3.3 Supply - end (Import) - As of July 31, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 468.00 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the CNF price of imported US - West soybeans was 447.00 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply - end (Crushing) - In the week ending July 31, the soybean crushing profit was 85.65 yuan/ton, down 9.75 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the week ending July 25, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 226.31 million tons, up 11.55 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 58%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.5 Inventory - end - As of July 31, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 683.92 million tons, up 15.99 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year low. As of July 25, the soybean - meal inventory of oil mills was 96.10 million tons, up 5.27 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year medium level [28]. 3.6 Demand - end - As of July 25, the average daily sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 13.23 million tons, up 1.86 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year medium - low level [32]. 3.7 Pig - supply and Demand No detailed content provided. 3.8 Pig - slaughter and Breeding Profit No detailed content provided. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The strong Brazilian premium supports the import cost. The soybean meal is at the 3000 mark waiting for a direction. The rapeseed meal has rigid demand support, with intensified fluctuations, suitable for short - term trading [46]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global soybean supply is abundant, and the trade prospects are easing, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [47]. 3.10 Next - week Concerns The concerns include the weather in producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival schedule of imported soybeans [48].
饲料养殖产业日报-20250725
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]
饲料养殖产业日报-20250724
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pressure of live pigs remains, showing a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. For eggs, the short - term price has a rising drive but the supply pressure is large, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease. Oils are expected to be in a relatively strong trend after a correction. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it may strengthen in the medium - to - long term. The short - term supply - demand of corn is in a game, and the price may rise in the medium - to - long term with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9] Summary by Variety Live Pigs - On July 24, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong all declined. In the short term, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price adjusts slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will gradually increase. Under the expectation of capacity reduction, it shows weak reality and strong expectation. The 09 contract has pressure at 14700 - 15000, the 11 contract at 14400 - 14600, and the 01 contract has support. Consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and going long on 01 [1] Eggs - On July 24, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate, and demand is expected to turn seasonally strong, but supply factors limit the increase. In the medium term, the supply in August - October 2025 may increase. In the long term, the subsequent new production may decrease. The 09 contract waits for spot guidance, and consider shorting on rallies. The 12 and 01 contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [2] Oils Palm Oil - On July 23, the Malaysian palm oil futures rose. The MPOB June report was neutral - bearish, but the market focused on the increased import demand. In July, the export decline and production increase were bearish, but the GAPKI May report and other factors were bullish. The short - term trend is relatively strong, and the 10 contract focuses on the 4300 - 4400 pressure level. In China, the supply in August is relatively loose [4][5] Soybean Oil - As of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans is good. The US soybean futures are in a short - term range - bound. The short - term inventory accumulation in China is expected to be strong, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The soybean oil is moderately strong [6] Rapeseed Oil - The growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there are potential weather threats. The international demand may be affected. In China, the supply is tightening, but the potential import of Australian rapeseed may improve the supply. It is relatively weak [7] Soybean Meal - On July 23, the US soybean futures declined. The short - term US soybean is range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal is strong in the short term but the upside of the spot is limited. In the medium - to - long term, there may be a supply gap. Short - term, consider going long on the M2509 contract on dips; medium - to - long term, pay attention to the M2511 and M2601 contracts [8] Corn - On July 23, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao increased. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is range - bound. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand tightens, and the price may rise but the upside is limited. Short - term, be cautious about going long on the 09 contract; consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [8][9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [10]
饲料养殖产业日报-20250723
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]
饲料养殖产业日报-20250722
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand game intensifies in the feed and breeding industry, with price fluctuations. In the medium - and long - term, supply pressure remains high in some sectors, and price rebounds face challenges. Different varieties have different performance trends due to various factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5][6] - The strategy suggestions for different varieties include waiting for appropriate trading opportunities based on pressure levels, conducting hedging operations, and following the idea of buying on dips [1][2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Hog - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Sichuan 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong 15.8 - 16.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In July, the scale enterprise's slaughter volume decreased, and factors like government price - stabilizing sentiment and secondary fattening supported the price. However, high hog weight and weak demand restricted the price increase. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in the number of sows capable of reproduction [1] - **Strategy**: The futures price has risen, but the supply - demand pressure persists. The pressure levels for 09, 11, and 01 contracts are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14200 - 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, short 11 and 01 on rebounds, and consider the spread trading of short 09, 11 and long 01 [1] 2. Egg - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.15 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing 3.27 yuan/jin, stable [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate and drives the price up, but factors like slow culling, large new - laying hens, and cold - storage egg release limit the increase. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future due to high replenishment in 25 years 4 - 6 months. In the long - term, the replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the new - laying may decrease [2] - **Strategy**: The 09 contract's basis is low, and the futures price is waiting for spot guidance. It is recommended to short on highs if the spot price increase slows down. Consider going long on 12 and 01 contracts in the fourth quarter [2][3] 3. Oil - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean oil 12 - month contract rose 0.40% to 55.80 cents/pound; the Malaysian palm oil 10 - month contract fell 2.09% to 4226 ringgit/ton [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil: The June ending inventory increased, and the export in July 1 - 20 decreased while the production increased. The domestic inventory rose in June. Soybean oil: The US soybean growth is good, and the export is expected to improve. The domestic inventory is expected to increase in July. Rapeseed oil: The Canadian rapeseed growth is improving, and the Australian rapeseed may enter the Chinese market [5] - **Strategy**: The oil prices are expected to be strong after a correction. Palm oil is the strongest, soybean oil is medium, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Consider buying on dips for 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil [6][7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 9.75 cents to 1026 cents/bushel; the domestic M2509 contract closed at 3069 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The US soybean is waiting for weather guidance, and the domestic soybean meal is stronger than the US soybean due to the expected de - stocking after August and tariff effects. The domestic supply is abundant in July - August, and the inventory is expected to decrease later [7] - **Strategy**: Short - term, reduce long positions and take profits; medium - and long - term, go long on M2511 and M2601 contracts on dips [7] 5. Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 21, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2522 yuan/ton, stable [8] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, policy grain supply and demand game intensifies, and the price range is limited. In the medium - term, the supply is tightening, but substitutes limit the increase. In the long - term, the planting is stable, and the cost decreases [8] - **Strategy**: Short - term, be cautious about going long unilaterally and wait for spot guidance; consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread trading [8] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: CBOT soybean decreased 8.25 cents to 1026.75 cents/bushel; domestic soybean meal M2509 rose 13 yuan to 3069 yuan/ton; CBOT corn decreased 5 cents to 404 cents/bushel; domestic corn futures rose 6 yuan to 2320 yuan/ton; CBOT soybean oil rose 0.22 cents to 55.80 cents/pound; BMD palm oil rose 3984 ringgit to 8300 ringgit/ton; ICE rapeseed decreased 1.10 Canadian dollars to 698.90 Canadian dollars/ton; egg futures rose 41 yuan to 3636 yuan/500 kg; hog futures rose 230 yuan to 14365 yuan/ton [9]