Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the corn supply - demand pattern is basically balanced, and it may maintain a range - bound operation throughout the year. The mid - to - long - term trading strategy is to maintain a range - trading mindset, with low - buying before policy - related grain source release and high - selling opportunities after the release. The support level for the futures market is 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [2][255]. - For the pig market in 2026, it is trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction under the situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The supply increase is coming to an end, and the signal of capacity reduction has been sent. Near - month contracts will trade based on the basis - regression logic, while far - month contracts will trade the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction driven by policies, focusing on the actual changes in sow inventory [2]. - In the egg market in 2026, it is also trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction under the situation of weak reality and strong expectation. In the short - to - medium term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to reverse completely. In the long term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Before the over - culling of laying hens is confirmed, futures contracts may continue the trading path of narrowing the premium, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. After over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market can be considered [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Summary 1.1 Spot Market - **Corn**: The domestic corn market has gone through five stages, including the protected - price purchase stage, the temporary storage purchase stage, the market - pricing stage, the stage of reaching a historical high, and the stage of price decline. In 2025, the domestic corn price first rose and then fell, with the price rising from 2100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2450 yuan/ton in the middle of the year and then dropping to around 2200 yuan/ton. The international corn price has also experienced different stages, and in 2025, the global corn supply was still abundant, putting pressure on the price to decline [11][19]. - **Pigs**: The pig price cycle can be divided into six cycles before and after the African swine fever in 2018. In 2025, the pig market's increased capacity continued to be realized, with the supply - demand imbalance pressuring the pig price to decline. The national average price fluctuated between 14 - 16 yuan/kg from January to June and further declined after July, with self - breeding and self - raising falling into losses again in October [26][33]. - **Eggs**: The egg market has gone through three major cycles since 2013. In 2025, the egg price declined, with a seasonal rebound in the third quarter and a further decline in the fourth quarter. The average inventory of laying hens increased, and the supply pressure was significant [37][41]. 1.2 Futures Market - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures have gone through four stages, including the rising and high - level operation stage, the high - level decline stage, the stage of reaching a historical high, and the high - level decline stage. In 2025, the Dalian corn futures first rose and then fell. The CBOT corn futures also showed a downward trend in 2025 [46][61]. - **Pigs**: Since the listing of pig futures in January 2021, the futures price has been declining with a narrowing amplitude. In 2025, the pig futures market traded based on the logic of increased capacity and supply realization, with the price falling and breaking through the breeding cost in the fourth quarter [69][73]. - **Eggs**: Since the listing of egg futures in November 2013, they have shown a large - range cyclical operation. In 2025, the egg futures price declined overall, with a rebound in November due to the expectation of capacity reduction [78][83]. 1.3 Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of corn futures increased compared with the previous year, and the open interest also increased significantly. The trading volume of pig futures increased slightly, but the turnover decreased. The trading volume and turnover of egg futures increased significantly, and the open interest reached a record high [88][90][96]. 2. Supply Pattern Analysis of the Breeding Industry Chain 2.1 Corn Market - Globally, the supply pressure of corn has decreased, but the supply pressure of US corn is prominent. In China, the sown area of corn in the 2025/26 season is stable, and the yield per unit area has increased. The import of corn has been restricted since August 2024, and the impact on domestic supply is currently small. The supply of corn in the 2025/26 season is expected to be basically balanced, and attention should be paid to the import policy and domestic grain substitution [97][104]. 2.2 Pig Market - The sow inventory is still above the reasonable level, and the capacity reduction process of sows is accelerating. The supply of pigs before August 2026 is still at a high level, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after August. The number of newborn piglets indicates that the supply of pigs before March 2026 is still abundant. The average slaughter weight of pigs is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the frozen - meat storage rate is at a low level. The import of pork has little impact on the domestic market, and the reserve meat purchase and release are mainly for rotation [117][121][124]. 2.3 Egg Market - The inventory of laying hens is at a historical high, and the chicken - chick replenishment was strong in the first four months of 2025 and then declined. The culling of laying hens has accelerated, but the culling age has not reached the level of over - culling. The egg - laying hen farming industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate is increasing. The supply of eggs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be abundant, and attention should be paid to the culling rhythm and intensity [139][143][148]. 3. Consumption Pattern Analysis of the Breeding Industry Chain 3.1 Corn Market - Corn consumption is mainly divided into feed consumption and industrial consumption. In 2026, the feed consumption of corn is expected to be relatively stable, and the industrial consumption is expected to increase slightly. The feed consumption of corn may decline due to the capacity reduction of the breeding industry, but the cost - performance of corn feed has increased [160]. 3.2 Pig Market - Pork consumption is relatively rigid and follows seasonal patterns. In the long term, factors such as population structure and meat consumption structure will affect pork consumption. In 2026, pork consumption will still follow seasonal patterns, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship during peak and off - peak consumption seasons [163]. 3.3 Egg Market - The total consumption of eggs is relatively stable, and the consumption structure is mainly fresh eggs. Egg consumption has obvious seasonal patterns, and the peak consumption seasons are the 'Double Festivals' in the third quarter and the period before the Spring Festival [172]. 4. Supply - Demand Situation Summary Analysis of the Breeding Industry 4.1 Corn Market - The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season has shifted to basic balance. The supply pressure globally has decreased, but the supply pressure of US corn is prominent. The import of corn has little impact on domestic supply in the short term. The demand for corn feed may be relatively stable, and the industrial consumption may increase slightly [176]. 4.2 Pig Market - The supply of pigs before July 2026 is still at a high level, and the capacity reduction process of sows is the key factor affecting the pig price in the second half of 2026. Pork consumption is relatively rigid and follows seasonal patterns. The supply - demand pattern of the pig market is supply - dominated, and attention should be paid to the epidemic prevention situation at the end of 2025 and the slaughter weight in 2026 [181]. 4.3 Egg Market - The supply of eggs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be abundant. The culling of laying hens has not reached the level of over - culling, and the egg price is expected to remain at a low level before the capacity reduction is confirmed. After the over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market may start [184]. 5. Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis and Outlook 5.1 Corn - The basis of corn usually operates within the range of - 100 to + 100, and when it exceeds this range, the feasibility of spot - futures arbitrage can be analyzed. Currently, the basis is at a normal level, and attention can be paid to the spot - futures arbitrage opportunity of buying spot and selling futures when the basis weakens to below - 200 yuan/ton [187]. 5.2 Pigs - The basis of pig futures mostly operates within the range of - 2000 to + 2000. Considering the supply situation in 2026, it is recommended to consider the reverse - spread trading opportunity of selling LH2603 and buying LH2609 [192]. 5.3 Eggs - The basis of egg futures has different characteristics in different periods. In 2026, if over - culling is confirmed, reverse - spread opportunities can be considered; if the culling is less than expected, positive - spread opportunities can be considered. Attention can also be paid to the month - to - month arbitrage opportunities of contracts around the peak consumption seasons [200]. 6. Option Analysis and Strategy Suggestions - **Corn**: It is expected that the corn supply - demand pattern will remain basically balanced in 2026, and it may maintain a wide - range operation. It is recommended to mainly conduct option - selling operations based on the support and resistance levels [207]. - **Pigs**: It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term in 2026. It is recommended to mainly sell call options at the resistance level. For far - month contracts after the LH2609 contract, if there is a large - scale capacity reduction, buying out - of - the - money call options can be considered; otherwise, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after the price rallies [209]. - **Eggs**: It is expected that the egg price will be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term in 2026. It is recommended to mainly sell call options at the resistance level. For far - month contracts after the second quarter of 2026, if there is a large - scale capacity reduction, buying out - of - the - money call options can be considered; otherwise, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after the price rallies [211]. 7. 2026 Outlook from Industry Enterprise Surveys - Different industry enterprises have different views on the 2026 market. For example, some pig - farming enterprises are not optimistic about the pig price in the first half of 2026, and some grain - storage enterprises expect the corn price to fluctuate within a certain range [212][214]. 8. Technical Analysis and Outlook 8.1 Price Seasonal Analysis - **Corn**: Corn prices usually show seasonal patterns. They tend to be weak in the first quarter, rise in the second quarter, fall in the third quarter, and may rebound in the fourth quarter [223]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices also show seasonal fluctuations. They usually rise before the Spring Festival and fall after it, reach the lowest point from March to April, rebound from May to June, rise from July to August, fall from September to October, and may rise again in the peak consumption season from November to December [227]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices have obvious seasonal patterns. They fall after the Spring Festival, rise slightly from March to April, fall from May to June, rise strongly from July to August, and fall from September to December [234]. 8.2 Technical Analysis - **Corn**: The C2605 contract of corn futures is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with the lower limit of the range at 2150 - 2200 and the upper limit at 2300 - 2350 [240]. - **Pigs**: The LH2603 contract of pig futures has medium - term pressure, and the LH2609 contract is in a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels [245]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures are in a low - level repair range. The LH2603 contract is in a triangular narrowing range, and the LH2608 contract has a strong technical trend. Attention should be paid to the direction after the range is broken [252]. 9. Summary and 2026 Operation Suggestions 9.1 Corn - The supply - demand pattern of corn in 2026 is basically balanced. The mid - to - long - term trading strategy is to maintain a range - trading mindset, with low - buying before policy - related grain source release and high - selling opportunities after the release. The support level for the futures market is 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [257][259]. 9.2 Pigs - In 2026, the pig market is trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction. Near - month contracts will trade based on the basis - regression logic, while far - month contracts will trade the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the actual changes in sow inventory [261][275]. 9.3 Eggs - In 2026, the egg market is also trading the 'expectation gap' of capacity reduction. Before the over - culling of laying hens is confirmed, futures contracts may continue the trading path of narrowing the premium, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. After over - culling is confirmed, a new round of cyclical upward market can be considered [276][284]. 10. Related Stock Price and Return Statistics The report provides the latest prices and year - to - date returns of related stocks in the breeding industry as of November 24, 2025 [287].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The demand during the peak season is boosting pig prices, with a strong expectation of price fluctuations [3][31] - By the end of October 2025, the national breeding sow inventory is expected to drop below 40 million heads, a decrease of at least 350,000 heads from the end of September 2025, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [3][32] Group 2: Egg Industry - The inventory of laying hens continues to decline, supporting egg prices, with a reported inventory of approximately 1.295 billion hens in December, a month-on-month decrease of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [3][32] - Recent cooler weather has increased the shelf life of eggs, enhancing the pricing power of producers and leading to better sales at the retail level [3][32] Group 3: Soybean Meal Market - The USDA's January supply and demand report indicates a stable soybean yield forecast of 53.00 bushels per acre for the 2025/26 season, with an expected production of 4.262 billion bushels, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [4][32] - The report also predicts an increase in year-end soybean stocks to 350 million bushels, up from 290 million bushels in December [4][32] Group 4: Corn Market - China's corn production for 2025 is estimated at 602.47 billion jin (approximately 301 million tons), an increase of 12.64 billion jin or 2.1% from 2024 [4][32] - Issues with grain spoilage due to excessive rainfall in northern China are leading feed enterprises to prefer northeastern corn, contributing to a strong market for northeastern corn [4][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the biodiesel policy boosts US soybeans, but the domestic supply is strong, so soybean meal will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The relationship between China and Canada may see substantial improvement, and rapeseed meal will continue its weak pattern during the off - season of demand [27]. - In the medium and long term, with the global supply in a loose fundamental situation, the overall upside space is limited [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - From January 8th to January 15th, the closing price of the futures main contract of soybean meal M2605 decreased from 2782 to 2740, a weekly decline of 1.51%. The average price of 43% protein soybean meal decreased from 3110 to 3100, a decline of 0.32% [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract of rapeseed meal RM605 decreased from 2358 to 2283, a weekly decline of 3.18%. The average price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2540 to 2460, a decline of 3.15% [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract of corn C2603 increased from 2266 to 2295, a weekly increase of 1.28%. The price of second - class national standard corn increased from 2310 to 2330, an increase of 0.87% [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract of live pigs LH2603 increased from 11720 to 11950, a weekly increase of 1.96%. The average price of commercial pigs in Henan increased from 12.85 to 12.97, an increase of 0.93% [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract of eggs JD2603 increased from 3009 to 3066, a weekly increase of 1.89%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas increased from 3.23 to 3.5, an increase of 8.36% [2]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - end - The weather in southern Argentina is still dry, which may affect soybean and corn crops. The export sales of US soybeans far exceeded expectations, with a month - on - month surge of 135%. From January 8th to January 15th, the planting rate of soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 95%, higher than last week's 92% but lower than 98% in the same period in 2025 [5]. - Brazil's expected soybean planting area in 2025 is 47.724673 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.7% from the previous year. The expected soybean output in 2025 is 166.054076 million tons, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 14.6% from the previous year. The expected soybean output in 2026 is 170.269202 million tons, a 2.5% increase from 2025 [5]. Supply - end - In 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 111.83 million tons, a 6.5% increase from 2024. In December 2025, China's soybean imports were 8.04 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month but a 1.3% increase year - on - year. China did not import soybeans from the US for the third consecutive month in December [5]. - As of January 16th, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 446.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars per ton from last week. The CNF price of imported US West soybeans was 463.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars per ton from last week [9]. Demand - end - The National Grain and Oil Information Center estimates that the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China in January 2026 may continue to decline, and the operating rate of oil mills will slightly decrease. The estimated soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills for the whole month is about 8 million tons, an increase of about 700,000 tons year - on - year and about 900,000 tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years [5]. - As of January 15th, the domestic soybean meal spot market price was 3160 yuan/ton. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major national oil mills was 63.21 million tons, including 13.35 million tons of spot transactions and 49.86 million tons of far - month basis transactions [5]. Inventory - end - In the second week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major national oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, a 0.40% increase from last week and a 17.96% increase from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a 10.78% decrease from last week and a 72.68% increase from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 5.4086 million tons, a 6.72% decrease from last week and an 18.54% increase from the same period last year [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The biodiesel policy boosts US soybeans, but the domestic supply is strong, so soybean meal will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The relationship between China and Canada may see substantial improvement, and rapeseed meal will continue its weak pattern during the off - season of demand [27]. - Medium - and long - term: With the global supply in a loose fundamental situation, the overall upside space is limited [28]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Concerns include产区 weather, trade relations, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [29].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural sector is experiencing a transition with various commodities showing signs of improvement in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in 2026. The focus is on the poultry, palm oil, and cotton industries as they exhibit potential for growth and investment opportunities [2][24]. Key Insights and Arguments Egg Industry - The egg industry is projected to face severe losses due to overcapacity starting in the second half of 2025, with expectations of continued impact until September 2026. However, a decrease in stock levels is anticipated, which may create upward price pressure in the future. Companies like Xiaoming Agriculture and Huayu Co. are highlighted for their long-term potential due to their connections with large-scale farms [1][4][15]. - The egg industry has a higher concentration than the pig industry, making it more attractive for investment. The average profit margin exceeded 25% from 2021 to 2024, but a significant downturn is expected due to overproduction [3][9]. Palm Oil Industry - The palm oil supply-demand relationship is marginally improving, with stable global demand growth. Even without U.S. policy changes, production cuts in Southeast Asia and price advantages in international markets support potential price increases. However, the impact of Indonesia's new government seizing palm plantation land could reduce yield rates [1][5][21]. - The palm oil market is expected to remain stable, with prices not likely to drop significantly due to seasonal production cuts in Southeast Asia [20][32]. Cotton Industry - The cotton supply-demand situation is gradually improving, with Xinjiang planning to reduce the area planted with low-yield or water-scarce cotton, which could lead to price increases. Short-term pressures may exist, but long-term potential remains strong [1][6][22]. Chicken Seed Market - The Chinese chicken seed market is highly concentrated, with the top three companies (C23) holding 75%-85% market share. The domestic chicken seed sales have plummeted, leading to a significant reduction in supply, which is expected to improve in the coming months [10][12][14]. Other Important Insights - **Economic Environment**: The current economic conditions are leading to a decline in per capita protein and oil consumption, primarily due to aging demographics and economic transitions. This has a more pronounced effect on pork consumption compared to eggs, which are more suitable for older populations [3][25]. - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China regarding soybean and cotton trade, have led to China stockpiling sufficient reserves to mitigate risks. Brazil's role in the global agricultural supply chain is critical, as it supplies a significant portion of China's soybean needs [29][30]. - **Weather Events**: The potential emergence of the El Niño phenomenon in April 2027 could significantly impact agricultural markets, necessitating close monitoring of weather patterns and their effects on production [33][34]. Conclusion - The agricultural sector is poised for a recovery in 2026, with specific commodities like eggs, palm oil, and cotton showing promising signs. However, challenges such as overcapacity, geopolitical tensions, and weather-related risks must be carefully navigated to capitalize on these opportunities [2][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bearish expectations of the rapeseed meal sector suppress the market, while soybean meal awaits guidance from the USDA report. There may be a turnaround in China - Canada trade, and the bearish sentiment for rapeseed meal continues. - In the medium - to - long - term, the overall upside potential is limited under the global supply - abundant fundamental situation [34][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the soybean meal futures main contract (M2605) on January 8, 2026, was 2782, up 33 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.20%. The spot price was 3110, up 50 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. - The closing price of the rapeseed meal futures main contract (RM605) on January 8, 2026, was 2358, down 7 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.30%. The spot price was 2540, up 10 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.40%. - The closing price of the corn futures main contract (C2603) on January 8, 2026, was 2266, up 40 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.80%. The spot price was 2310, down 10 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 0.43%. - The closing price of the live hog futures main contract (LH2603) on January 8, 2026, was 11720, down 75 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.64%. The spot price was 12.85, down 0.33 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 2.50%. - The closing price of the egg futures main contract (JD2603) on January 8, 2026, was 3009, up 47 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.59%. The spot price was 3.23, up 0.23 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 7.67% [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: Recent rainfall in central Brazil is beneficial for soybean pod - setting, and the precipitation coverage will improve next week. - US Soybeans: As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 877,900 tons, a 26% decrease from the previous week and a 42% decrease from the four - week average. The export sales volume so far this season is 29% lower than the same period in 2025, while the USDA predicts an annual decline of 13%. The net sales volume of US soybeans to China (mainland only) in the 2025/26 season in that week was 470,000 tons, higher than 396,000 tons a week ago. The total sales volume of US soybeans to China so far in the 2025/26 season is 6.893 million tons, a 63.8% decrease from 19.036 million tons in the same period in 2025, and a 66.0% decrease a week ago. - Brazil: Brazilian soybean traders expect to export 77 million tons of soybeans to China in 2026, a decrease of 1 million tons from 2025. US soybean sales to China will weaken the demand for Brazilian soybeans to some extent. - Argentina: As of January 8, 2026, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season in Argentina was 92%, up from 86% last week and compared with 96% in the same period in 2025 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In November, China did not import soybeans from the US for the third consecutive month and turned to South America for supply. The total soybean import volume in November was 8.11 million tons, of which 5.85 million tons were from Brazil, a 48.5% year - on - year increase, accounting for 72% of the total import volume in that month; the export volume to China from another source soared to 1.78 million tons, a more than six - fold year - on - year increase, accounting for nearly 22% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: In December 2025, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills remained high, about 9.05 million tons for the whole month, and soybean meal was continuously accumulating inventory. The import volume of soybeans in January decreased, and it is expected that the soybean pressing volume will decrease slightly to about 8 million tons, with a soybean meal output of about 6.4 million tons. - Transaction: On January 8, the spot market prices of soybean meal in China showed mixed trends. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 351,800 tons [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 6.876 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week; the inventory of domestic soybean meal was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week, a 3.52% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 6.376 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons from the previous week, a 36.09% month - on - month increase [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of January 8, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 451.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 472.00 US dollars per ton, the same as the previous week [14]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending January 8, the soybean pressing profit was - 6.70 yuan per ton, a recovery of 54.45 yuan per ton from the previous week. - As of the week ending January 2, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9838 million tons, an increase of 201,600 tons from the previous week. - As of January 2, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 50%, a 5 - percentage - point recovery from the previous week [19]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of January 9, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3396 million tons, a recovery of 54,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a very high level in the past 5 years. - As of January 2, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0505 million tons, a decrease of 51,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a very high level in the past 5 years [21]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of January 2, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 139,900 tons, the same as the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level in the past 5 years [25]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report presents data on rapeseed import volume from different countries to China, rapeseed meal production in China on different time scales (annual, monthly, weekly), and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed at domestic pressing plants [29]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report shows data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand, and consumption in China, as well as the inventory and trading volume of rapeseed meal in different regions [32]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - **Soybean Meal**: Since the easing of China - US relations, China's purchasing progress affects the trend of US soybeans. Due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US, there are still doubts about the subsequent purchasing rhythm, and the uncertainty suppresses the price of US soybeans. In South America, the good weather in Brazil indicates a bumper harvest, which also puts pressure on US soybeans. In China, as the festival approaches, the rigid demand for soybean meal from feed and aquaculture enterprises increases. Coupled with the reduction of soybean pressing after the New Year's Day holiday, the output of soybean meal decreases, supporting the continuous small - scale upward trend of the spot price of soybean meal. The average spot trading price of soybean meal in oil mills has risen to the highest level in 8 months. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may put pressure on the price of rapeseed, causing fluctuations in the domestic rapeseed market sentiment. Currently, domestic pressing enterprises have completely shut down, and the spot supply is in short supply. Traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, and the spot price of rapeseed meal remains stable overall. The crushing progress of imported Australian rapeseed is slow, and the inventory of rapeseed products in coastal oil mills remains low. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal is not cost - effective, and the demand is mediocre. The focus of the rapeseed market is still on the import side, and attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each agricultural product, including "oscillation", "oscillation with an upward bias", and "oscillation with a downward bias" [5][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - environmental impacts. It concludes that most products will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - to - medium term, with some showing a slight upward or downward bias [5][7][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Spot inventory is decreasing, and oils and fats are oscillating narrowly. - **Logic**: The commercial inventory of three major oils has decreased, but the impact of international geopolitical issues on crude oil prices has weakened, and the supply - demand relationship in the oil market is complex. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Weather in Argentina has drawn attention, and both soybean meal and rapeseed meal have risen slightly. - **Logic**: International soybean markets face competition, and domestic pre - holiday supply and demand are both weak. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7][8] 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: Corn purchase has restarted, and prices are oscillating within a range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are stable, and the purchase policy provides short - term support. - **Outlook**: Corn prices will oscillate, with a possible decline before the Spring Festival and a rise after [10][11] 3.1.4 Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures contract has rebounded. - **Logic**: Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term supply pressure may ease. - **Outlook**: Hog prices will oscillate, with near - month contracts at a low level and far - month contracts supported by production - reduction expectations [12][13][14] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Positive capital sentiment continues, and rubber prices are rising. - **Logic**: Driven by overall commodity sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it can be treated as bullish [17][18] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The futures price follows the upward trend of natural rubber. - **Logic**: The improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but there is short - term pressure. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is pressure and may need adjustment; in the medium term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [19][20] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues. - **Logic**: Domestic demand is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of a reduction in planting area. - **Outlook**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [20][21] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. - **Logic**: Global and domestic sugar supplies are both increasing. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, it will oscillate with a downward bias [21] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by capital and macro factors, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are a mix of positives and negatives, and the market is currently driven by capital. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate with an upward bias [22] 3.1.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has improved, and offset paper is performing strongly. - **Logic**: Paper mills have raised prices, and the market sentiment has warmed up. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [23][24] 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: There are no significant contradictions, and it is recommended to operate within a range. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and there is support at certain price levels. - **Outlook**: From January to February, supply pressure will ease marginally, and logs will mainly oscillate within a range [25] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [26][45][58] 3.3 Commodity Index - On January 6, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a positive performance, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a 5 - day increase of 0.73%, a 1 - month increase of 0.78%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [184][186]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the agriculture sector mainly fluctuated. Different agricultural products showed various trends, including price adjustments, low - level fluctuations, and price increases. Overall, the market was affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and macro - environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are undergoing corrective consolidation. Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats futures, with weak fundamental data. The macro - environment and industrial factors have a negative impact on vegetable oil prices. Overall, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider staged buying hedging after excessive declines [4] - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues have a weakening impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects vegetable oil prices negatively. South American soybean production is expected to be high, and domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient. The palm oil production area is in the off - season, but export demand is weak. Overseas rapeseed production is high, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase, showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The expectation of a good harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are fluctuating at a low level. The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Logic**: Internationally, South American weather is normal, and the market expects a good harvest of South American soybeans. US soybean exports face competition from South American soybeans. Domestically, before the festival, supply and demand are both weak. Oil mills' inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is not strong [5] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Purchase and sales are gradually recovering, and prices are fluctuating within a range. The overall price is under pressure but also has support, and it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a possible first - decline - then - rise trend [7][9][10] - **Logic**: Affected by the corn auction, the price once rose, but the overall fundamentals have no major contradictions. The launch of policy - based grain sources has a limited negative impact. In different regions, the supply and demand situations vary, and downstream demand and inventory also affect the price [9] 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: After the holiday, the demand drive weakens, and the futures price declines. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and in the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken [10][11] - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand after the New Year's Day holiday weakens. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are fluctuating at a high level. In the short - term, it can be considered bullish [13][14] - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strong sentiment of commodities, natural rubber has a strong performance. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but the demand side is relatively weak after the price increase [14] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains a fluctuating trend. In the short - term, there is pressure, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][16] - **Logic**: The expectation of marginal improvement in butadiene fundamentals has become a market consensus. Although the current inventory is increasing, the market expects good prospects, and the downstream industry's demand is also rising [16] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16][18] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the new cotton is in the peak listing period, but the inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the apparent demand is increasing. Policy - wise, there is an expectation of a reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which drives the price up [16][18] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly and are still under pressure in the medium - term. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [18] - **Logic**: Globally and domestically, the sugar supply is increasing. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing, Thailand's production is delayed, and India's production is growing. In China, the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase [18] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market is dominated by funds and the macro - environment, and pulp futures fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [19] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include rising prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations of coniferous pulp mills, and high downstream paper production. Negative factors include difficulties in cost transfer of downstream paper and seasonal decline in demand [19] 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [20][21] - **Logic**: The market trend of double - glue paper has changed from falling to rising. The inventory pressure of paper mills has been relieved, and the supply is expected to be stable. Paper mills' price - increase plans may support the price in the short - term [21] 3.11 Logs - **View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices fluctuate narrowly. From January to February, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [22] - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market has no obvious upward or downward drive. The supply pressure will be relieved in January and February, and the futures price has support at a certain range. The 03 contract has certain game characteristics [22] 3.12 Commodity Index - On January 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2345.23, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2684.12, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2272.17, up 0.21%. The agricultural product index on January 5, 2026, was 932.85, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.05%, a 1 - month increase of 0.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [182][184]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures price fluctuates narrowly, and the market still focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China. The domestic double - meal market generally maintains a weak and volatile trend. Overseas, although Chinese buyers have resumed purchasing US soybeans, they will continue to buy Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, the spot market shows a stalemate situation between supply and demand, and the spot price shows a certain resistance to decline. [40] - The rapeseed meal market has weak trading, and the core focus is on the arrival and customs clearance process of Australian rapeseed, which directly affects the short - term supply expectation. [40] - In the short term, the market is in a supply - demand stalemate. Soybean meal focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China, while rapeseed meal focuses on the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. In the long - term, changes in trade relations are still the key driving force for the supply side of double - meal. [40][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The closing price of the futures main contract M2601 on December 4, 2025, was 3,040, a weekly decrease of 15 or 0.49%. The spot price was 3,020, a weekly increase of 10 or 0.33%. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing price of the futures main contract RM601 was 2,422, a weekly decrease of 47 or 1.90%. The spot price was 2,500, a weekly decrease of 50 or 1.96%. [4] - **Corn**: The closing price of the futures main contract C2601 was 2,287, a weekly increase of 44 or 1.96%. The spot price was 2,295, a weekly increase of 20 or 0.88%. [4] - **Pig**: The closing price of the futures main contract LH2601 was 11,385, a weekly decrease of 200 or 1.73%. The spot price was 11.23, a weekly decrease of 0.04 or 0.35%. [4] - **Egg**: The closing price of the futures main contract JD2601 was 3,138, a weekly decrease of 144 or 4.39%. The spot price was 3.06, a weekly increase of 0.07 or 2.34%. [4] Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather**: In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperatures in the main soybean - producing states in the US are all lower than normal, and the rainfall is mostly higher. [9] - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 1.2485 million tons, a 14% decrease from the previous week and a 19% increase from the average of the previous four weeks, with net sales to the Chinese mainland of 232,000 tons. [9] - **Brazil**: On December 4, Brazilian government data showed that Brazil's soybean exports in November increased by 64% year - on - year to 4.2 million tons. [9] - **Argentina**: The estimated soybean output in Argentina in the 2025/26 season is 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, but the early - season sowing is continuously delayed, and the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is declining. [9] Supply - **Imports**: In October, China imported no soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. Imports from Brazil were 7.12 million tons, a 28.8% year - on - year increase, accounting for 75.1% of the total imports, and imports from Argentina were 1.57 million tons, a 15.4% year - on - year increase. Since the beginning of 2025, China's soybean imports from the US have reached 16.82 million tons, a 11.5% year - on - year increase. [9] Demand - **Pressing**: Recently, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills is relatively high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, approaching the high level of 1.2 million tons. It is expected that the soybean arrival volume in December will decrease slightly, with a total monthly pressing volume of about 8.6 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills at the end of the month will be around 0.9 million tons. [9] - **Transaction**: On December 4, the soybean meal transaction of domestic mainstream oil mills decreased. The trading volume was 89,800 tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 55,800 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from the previous day, and the basis trading volume was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3,092.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76 yuan/ton from the previous day. [9] Inventory - **Oil Mill Inventory**: In the 48th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 7.3396 million tons, a 2.65% increase from the previous week and a 47.57% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory increased to 1.2032 million tons, a 4.49% increase from the previous week and a 44.18% increase year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts decreased to 3.881 million tons, a 15.54% decrease from the previous week and a 5.28% decrease year - on - year. [9] Supply - Side Import - As of December 4, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was $476.00 per ton, a decrease of $14 per ton from the previous week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was $494.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton from the previous week. [17] Supply - Side Pressing - As of the week of December 4, the soybean pressing profit was - 58.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2568 million tons, a decrease of 68,600 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week. [25] Inventory - Side - As of December 4, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3868 million tons, a decrease of 4,400 tons from the previous week, and it was at an extremely high level in the past five years seasonally. As of November 28, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0734 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week, and it was at an extremely high level in the past five years seasonally. [29] Demand - Side - As of November 28, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills was 100,800 tons, a decrease of 131,900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past five years seasonally. [33] Rapeseed Meal Supply - Side - The content provides historical data on rapeseed import volume, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrival volume in China, but no new summary data is given. [36] Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory - Side - The content provides historical data on rapeseed meal inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume in China, but no new summary data is given. [38] Strategy Recommendation - **Short - Term**: The market is in a supply - demand stalemate. Soybean meal focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China, and rapeseed meal focuses on the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. [40] - **Long - Term**: Changes in trade relations are still the key driving force for the supply side of double - meal. [41] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus is on the weather in the producing areas, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans. [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For the pig industry, policy disturbances may affect long - term supply, with a long - term strategic strength, but short - to medium - term trends are still based on fundamentals. Recently, the second - fattening replenishment has weakened, and the near - term slaughter pressure persists, while the far - term is stronger due to expectations [3] - For the corn and starch industry, the national prices continue to rise slightly. Port and Northeast production areas are rising, while high arrivals in Shandong suppress the upward trend. The futures market is consolidating after continuous rallies, with some long - position liquidation, but the trend is strong in the medium - term [14] - For the egg industry, the long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in surplus, with high price pressure. In the short - term, some farmers are culling or molting hens due to the rapid post - festival price decline. Overall, the capacity is at a high level but approaching an inflection point, with a generally weak direction [30] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Section - **Spot Prices**: The national average pig spot price is 11.2 yuan, down 0.12 yuan (-1.06%). Prices in various regions such as Henan, Hunan, etc., also decreased [4] - **Futures Prices**: Pig futures contracts show mixed trends. For example, the closing price of Pig 01 is 11,490 yuan, up 35 yuan (0.31%), while Pig 03 is 11,235 yuan, down 20 yuan (-0.18%) [5] - **Spreads and Basis**: Spreads and basis between different pig futures contracts and regions show significant changes. For example, LH01 - 03 spread is 200 yuan, down 90 yuan (-31.03%) [10] Corn and Starch Section - **Futures Prices**: Corn and corn starch futures prices generally rose. For example, the closing price of Corn 01 is 2,259 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.71%), and Corn Starch 01 is 2,562 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.63%) [15][16] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in ports like Jinzhou and Shekou show different trends, and the basis also changes. For example, Jinzhou Port's corn price is 2,300 yuan, up 5 yuan, and the basis to the main - contract is 52 yuan, up 3 yuan [20] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: Corn and starch month - to - month spreads show various changes. For example, the Corn 1 - 5 month - spread is - 37 yuan, unchanged, and the Starch 1 - 5 month - spread is - 61 yuan, up 13 yuan [23] - **US Corn Import**: CBOT corn prices rose, and the import profit from the US Gulf and West Coast is 290.98 yuan and 391.93 yuan respectively [28] Egg Section - **Futures Prices**: Egg futures prices declined. For example, the closing price of Egg 01 is 3,138 yuan, down 64 yuan (-2%) [30] - **Spot Prices**: Main - producing and main - selling areas' egg prices show different trends. The main - producing area egg price is 3.07 yuan, down 0.02 yuan (-0.65%) [31] - **Spreads and Basis**: Egg spreads and basis also changed. For example, the Egg 1 - 5 spread is - 450 yuan, down 58 yuan (14.8%) [41]

Report Overview - The report is a Feed and Livestock Daily, covering the markets of pigs, corn & starch, and eggs on December 2, 2025 [1] Pig Market Core View - Policy disturbances may affect long - term pig supply. Long - term strategy is bullish, but short - to - medium - term is still based on fundamentals. Recent second - fattening purchases have weakened, near - month supply pressure persists, while far - month prices are bullish due to expectations [3] Price Information - **Spot Prices**: The national average spot price is 11.32 yuan, down 0.06 yuan (-0.53%). Prices vary in different regions, with Guangdong up 1.63% and Henan down 1.66% [4] - **Futures Prices**: For example, the closing price of Live Pig 01 is 11455 yuan, down 40 yuan (-0.35%), while Live Pig 03 is up 0.45% [5] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread of LH01 - 03 is 290 yuan, up 75 yuan (34.88%) [10] Corn & Starch Market Core View - National prices continue to rise slightly. Ports and Northeast production areas are up, while high arrivals in Shandong suppress the increase. Spot trading is good. Futures are consolidating after a continuous rally, with some long - liquidation, but the trend is still bullish in the medium - term [14] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: Corn 01 closes at 2243 yuan, up 7 yuan (0.31%); Corn Starch 05 is down 0.34% [15][16] - **Spot and Basis**: For example, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2295 yuan, up 10 yuan, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 49 yuan, up 18 yuan [20] - **Monthly Spreads**: The corn 1 - 5 monthly spread is -37 yuan, down 5 yuan [23] - **US Corn**: CBOT Corn Main - continuous is down 0.61%, and the import profit of US Gulf is 288.14 yuan [28] Egg Market Core View - Long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in surplus, putting pressure on prices. Short - term, due to a rapid post - holiday price drop, some farmers are culling or molting hens. Overall, capacity is at a high but approaching a turning point, with a generally bearish long - term trend [30] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: Egg 05 closes at 3652 yuan, up 59 yuan (1.64%), while Egg 09 is down 0.48% [31] - **Spot Prices**: The price of main - producing area eggs is 3.09 yuan, unchanged [32] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread of Egg 1 - 5 is -392 yuan, down 77 yuan (24.44%) [43]