生物燃料战略
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冠通期货油粕日报:油粕日报-20260331
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 11:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is under downward pressure due to the smooth progress of the Brazilian soybean harvest, a slight increase in production, the continuation of the South American high - yield expectation, and the under - expected US soybean export data, along with the expansion of the oil - meal ratio. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For spot trading, it is advisable to actively set prices when the price is low. Attention should be paid to the release of the new quarterly US soybean estimated planting area tonight [1][2] - The palm oil market is expected to continue to be strong. The Indonesian president announced the promotion of B50 implementation to deal with the energy crisis caused by the Middle - East situation, which led to a significant increase in palm oil and Malaysian palm oil prices. However, the implementation of B50 in Indonesia still takes time, and the crude oil price is the main factor affecting the implementation schedule [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean and Bean Meal - As of March 26, 2026, the harvest progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean was 75%, up from 68% a week ago but still behind the 82% of the same period last year. The harvest is mainly concentrated in Rio Grande do Sul and the Matopiba region. The rainfall last week hindered the harvester operation to some extent, but it was beneficial to some soybeans in the filling stage in Rio Grande do Sul. AgRural predicted the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output to be 178.4 million tons, higher than the 178 million tons predicted in February, a 4.02% increase from the 171.5 million tons in 2024/25 [1] - As of the week ending March 26, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 586,427 tons, lower than the market expectation of 600,000 - 1,250,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1,114,711 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 270,424 tons, accounting for 46.11% of the total. As of the week ending March 27, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 817,870 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 29,783,385 tons, compared with 40,774,757 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Vegetable Oil - According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 20, 2026 increased by 0.92%. Among them, the production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 3.61%, in Sabah increased by 5.59%, in Sarawak increased by 9.87%, and in East Malaysia increased by 6.67% [2] - Affected by the rising international crude oil price due to the Middle - East conflict, the Indonesian government is re - evaluating its biofuel strategy. The Indonesian president announced that the mixing ratio of palm oil and diesel will be increased from 40% to 50% this year. The US biofuel report was neutral, with strong support at the bottom. The promotion of B50 in Indonesia led to a sharp rise in palm oil prices, but its implementation still takes time, and the crude oil price is the main influencing factor [3]