（文章来源：新华财经） 市场是否看涨的关键因素在于2025年美国玉米产量，以及美国农业部下周是否将玉米产量预期下调低于 每英亩183蒲式耳。美国2025-2026年度玉米期末库存超过20亿蒲式耳。市场分析机构将利用报告发布后 的上涨行情卖出旧玉米和大豆。 美国最高法院将对特朗普政府《国际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）关税的裁决推迟至1月14日。市场 正等待最高法院的最终裁决。裁决推迟5天发布将加剧下周金融市场的紧张局势。 新华财经纽约1月9日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价9日涨跌不一。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.46美元，比前一交易日 下跌0.25美分，跌幅为0.06%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.17美元，比前一交易日下跌0.75美 分，跌幅为0.14%；大豆2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳10.63美元，比前一交易日上涨1.25美分，涨幅为 0.12%。 受现货交易商关于中国4-5月将采购10-12船美国大豆的传闻支撑，大豆期货价格走高。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月9日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘表现分化，大豆 期货涨0.14%报1062.75美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.17%报445.25美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货持平于518.00美 分/蒲式耳。 ...

Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkqh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 | | 名称 | 交易代码 | 主力基差率 | 较昨日増减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 录自导科 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜 | CU | 0.21% | 0.86% | 215 | 115 | 165 | 101870 | 101970 | 101920 | 102085 | SMM 1#电解铜 | | | 指 | AL | 0.04% | 1.23% | 10 | -15 | -60 | 23990 | 24015 | 24060 | 24000 | SMM A00铝 | | | 锌 | ZN | 0.52% | 0.54% | 125 | 80 | 40 | 24045 | 24090 | 24130 | 2417 ...

新华财经纽约1月8日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价8日或下跌或持平。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.46美元，比前一交易日 下跌0.75美分，跌幅为0.17%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.18美元，与前一交易日持平；大豆 2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳10.61美元，比前一交易日下跌5.75美分，跌幅为0.54%。 美国农业部当日发布的出口销量报告显示，截至1月1日假日周，美国小麦出口销量440万蒲式耳，玉米 出口销量1490万蒲式耳，大豆出口销量3230万蒲式耳。 本作物年度，美国销量累计出口销量7.39亿蒲式耳，同比增加1.14亿蒲式耳；玉米累计出口销量20.04亿 蒲式耳，增加4.59亿蒲式耳；大豆累计出口销量10.5亿蒲式耳，同比减少4.26亿蒲式耳。 天气预报显示，科尔多瓦和圣菲的降雨将有利于阿根廷农作物增产。然而，布宜诺斯艾利斯天气较为干 燥，需要密切关注。整个生长季，巴西北部地区的天气状况都十分有利，收割工作将于1月20日之后正 式开始。与此同时，气候预测中心指出，拉尼娜现象极有可能在夏季转变为厄尔尼诺现象。这对美国夏 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月8日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大豆 期货跌0.54%报1061.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.22%报445.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货持平于518.00美 分/蒲式耳。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月7日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大豆 期货涨0.92%报1066.00美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.51%报446.25美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨1.57%报 518.50美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Potential [4] - Silver: Potential [4] - Lead: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Platinum: On hold [4] - Palladium: On hold [4] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative, with the USD index ranging between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, ranging from 6.8 - 7.2 [6]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on market conditions such as price differences, inventory changes, and exchange rate expectations [4][5]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread declined. This week, given the relatively high valuation of the price difference and the expected RMB appreciation, it is recommended to go long COMEX and short SHFE [12][13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - foreign silver price difference rose and then fell, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread decreased. This week, due to the high - level price difference, the tight overseas spot market, and the expected RMB appreciation, it is recommended to go long COMEX and short SHFE [19][20]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Last week, the price gap between platinum and palladium narrowed significantly, and the previous high premium was largely restored. This week, it is recommended to close the long/short positions and take profits, and put the positions on hold [26][33]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In the off - season of demand, domestic copper inventory is still accumulating, and the copper import window remains in a loss state. Cross - market arbitrage is recommended to be on hold [40]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingots are accumulating, while LME aluminum inventory is decreasing. The short - term exchange ratio fluctuates within a range, and cross - market arbitrage is on hold [45]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, priced - locked zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and domestic zinc inventory has room to decline, while LME zinc inventory is rising. It is recommended to go long SHFE and short LME [54]. - **Lead**: Domestic lead ingot social inventory may rise, LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the lead ingot import window is open. It is recommended to go long LME lead and short SHFE lead [60]. - **Nickel**: The import window remains open, the balance ratio has slightly declined, and domestic and foreign inventories are at relatively high levels. Cross - market arbitrage is on hold [61]. - **Tin**: The domestic - foreign tin price ratio fluctuated, the spot tin import window is closed, and the import loss is 15,368 yuan/ton. Cross - market arbitrage is on hold [65]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [69]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The SC - Brent price spread has been fluctuating. Due to the weakening of Middle - East crude oil spot, high geopolitical uncertainties, and the significant decline in freight rates, it is recommended to wait and see [73][74]. - **Natural Gas**: The price difference between Europe and the US fluctuated. With expected mild temperatures in January, gas prices in Europe and the US are weak. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the opportunity of spread narrowing when the US gas price rebounds [109]. Agriculturals - **Soybean**: The crushing profit has been fluctuating at the bottom. Due to the slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans showed a weak downward trend, promoting the recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Sugar**: Both the domestic and foreign markets rebounded at low levels, and the price difference fluctuated within a narrow range. In the short term, due to the difficulty in increasing imports, the driving force for spread convergence is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **Natural Rubber**: There were no major changes last week, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage range. Supply is expected to increase, but demand has not improved. It is recommended to wait and see [88]. Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: The negative impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December has been digested. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair and the strengthening of gold and silver prices, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. Also, the expected US copper tariff limits the spread's downside. It is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: The Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS has been fluctuating. Due to the weakening of Middle - East crude oil spot and the resilient US production, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100]. - **WTI - Brent**: The WTI - Brent spread has been fluctuating. Although freight rates have declined significantly, the high - level operation of US refineries, stable US crude oil production, and high geopolitical uncertainties limit the spread's driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [105][106]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: The price difference has been fluctuating. With expected mild temperatures in January, gas prices in Europe and the US are weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of spread narrowing when the US gas price rebounds [109].

美国农业部当天发布的出口检验报告显示，截至1月1日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为4750万蒲式耳，大 豆出口检验量3600万蒲式耳，小麦出口检验量670万蒲式耳。 本作物年度，美国玉米累计出口检验量为10.55亿蒲式耳，同比增加4.15亿蒲式耳；大豆累计出口检验量 6.026亿蒲式耳，同比减少4.99亿蒲式耳；小麦累计出口检验量5.6亿蒲式耳，同比增加9210万蒲式耳。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约1月5日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价5日全线上涨。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.45美元，比前一交易日 上涨7美分，涨幅为1.6%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.13美元，比前一交易日上涨6美分，涨幅 为1.18%；大豆2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳10.62美元，比前一交易日上涨16.25美分，涨幅为1.55%。 中国购买10-14货船美国大豆提振了芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货价格。玉米和小麦期货也随之 上涨。此外，投机性通胀押注也推动了价格上涨。3月大豆期价图表阻力价位为10.65美元。南美洲天气 状况良好，巴西大豆即将迎 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月5日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大豆 期货涨1.58%报1062.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨1.60%报444.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨1.28%报 513.00美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 | 支撑，关注1月USDA供需报告的对美豆单产及出口的调整。短期南美天气无明显炒作驱动。阿根廷产区近期天气偏干但目前土壤随情适 | 宜,短期暂无明显不利影响，需缴纳观察;目前巴西大豆播种已接近尾声,巴拉那州已经开始收割。在巴豆丰产预期下，关注1月收割卖 | 压对巴西CX升贴水的影响,美盘和巴西贴水之和预期仍有下跌空间,若无特殊事件影响,M05预期仍然相对偏弱。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 结 | 国内1月大豆去库预期有所加速，同时出于对一季度缺豆以及海关检验延长的担忧。下游的节前备货预期较为积极,有利于支撑国内 | 春节前的现货价格走势。一季度进口大豆货权集中带来国内供应结构性问题。对103带来支撑，MO3-105短期仍你正套，风险在干政策变 | 化。海关检验趋严政策带来的供应延迟和停机问题，进口大豆拍卖或者定向具体的量级、价格及出货节奏难以预测，建议投 ...