1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to recover, while both domestic stocks and bonds are weak. The US economic data shows structural differentiation, with the market pricing an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. In China, policies aim to boost consumption, but the A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile, aluminum prices are expected to be favorable, alumina will continue its weak trend, and other metals and industrial products also have their respective market trends based on supply - demand and macro - economic factors [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: US data is structurally differentiated. Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.96 million. Durable goods and core capital goods orders in September increased by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumption and stagnant economic activity. The market prices an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut, with the US dollar index falling and copper, gold, and crude oil prices rising [2]. - Domestic: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to develop e - commerce and integrate AI into the consumer goods industry. The A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction. The 10Y and 30Y treasury bond yields are 1.83% and 2.19% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures soared 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Weak US economic data and the possible Fed chair change support interest rate cut expectations. The probability of a December interest rate cut is 85%. Short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Platinum and palladium futures can be bought at low prices [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper futures rose, and LME copper approached the $11,000 resistance level. The spot market had weak trading. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumer spending and rising input costs. US PPI data is mild, and overseas institutions predict a decline in core PCE. Chile's Codelco raised the long - term copper price for China in 2026. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with resistance at $11,000 - $11,200 [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, and LME aluminum rose 2.25%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased. US economic data shows labor market resilience but also potential weakness. The market's expectation of Fed easing remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to be favorable [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, alumina futures fell 0.37%. The supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the oversupply suppresses prices. The futures price is below the average cost, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, cast aluminum alloy futures fell slightly. The aluminum price has stabilized, and the cast aluminum market is in a state of stop - falling and shock. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost provides good support [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc futures rose at night. The spot market was weak. The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US reduced interest rate cut expectations, but the UK's tax - increase plan weakened the US dollar, which is beneficial to zinc prices. The supply pressure is gradually improving, but the market lacks the power for continuous rise, and zinc prices are expected to be widely volatile [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead futures were weakly volatile. The decline of LME lead dragged down Shanghai lead. The reopening of the lead ingot import window suppresses prices, but cost support and regional supply shortages limit the decline. Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin futures rose at night. The weakening of the US dollar and the political instability in the DRC support tin prices. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low, and inventory is expected to increase. With the approaching Fed meeting, the market sentiment may fluctuate, so be cautious about chasing up prices [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon futures were narrowly volatile. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, lithium carbonate prices were widely volatile. The raw material prices rose, and the main contract has switched to 2605. The market has a strong long - short game, and lithium prices are expected to be widely volatile [17]. 3.12 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices were volatile. The market expects an 82% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. The spot market has good inquiry enthusiasm but limited trading volume. The macro - environment may boost nickel prices in the short - term [18]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, soda ash futures were volatile, and glass futures were strongly volatile. The supply of glass is shrinking, but the demand is weak, and inventories are rising. The supply of soda ash is tightening, but the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Prices are expected to be low and volatile [19]. 3.14 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rebounded. The cost is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [20][21]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures were adjusted. The demand is weak due to steel mill losses and production cuts. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [22]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures were weakly volatile. The online auction of coking coal had a high flow - rate, and the spot price was weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [23]. 3.17 Industrial Data - The report provides trading data of various metal futures on November 26, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. It also shows the changes in inventory, spot prices, and other data of different metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. [24][25][28]

天气方面，最新预报显示，巴西北部地区降雨充足，阿根廷和巴西南部28日、29日可能出现阵雨或雷 暴。阿根廷过去六周一直处于潮湿状态，但每周也只有一次降雨机会，这有利于表层土壤坚实，为春季 播种做好准备。加上目前没有出现极端高温的迹象，这使得市场相信南美洲作物产量前景依然乐观。 市场分析认为，近期农产品期价的上涨是基于技术性买盘和季节性上升趋势的驱动。基本面上的供应宽 松压力依然存在。机构报告数据显示，巴西大豆有望创下历史新高。除非南美洲出现不利天气，否则芝 加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品价格上涨势头将较为疲软。 消息面上，俄罗斯私人咨询公司IKAR预测，由于冬小麦播种天气有利，2026年俄罗斯小麦产量将在 8600万至9100万吨之间。今年俄罗斯小麦总产量预计为8850万吨。如果俄罗斯小麦产量再次超过8500万 吨，其将能够出口4400万至4700万吨小麦。与此同时，欧盟冬小麦生长也开局良好，全球小麦供应压力 预计将持续至2026年。 新华财经纽约11月26日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价26日全线上涨。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.45美元 ...

2025年11月26日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周二贵金属价格震荡，伦敦金受阻于 4150 美元。 | | 金 | 基本面：美国 9 月 PPI 环比增 0.3%，能源成本推动通胀抬头，核心 PPI 环比增速 0.1%低于预期；ADP 周报： | | 属 | 过去四周私营部门就业岗位周均减少 1.35 万、流失加剧；9 月零售销售环比增 0.2%远低于预期，汽车销售成 | | | 主要拖累，疲弱数据推升降息预期；美联储理事米兰表示需要大幅降息，当前货币政策阻碍经济发展，并将 | | | 失业率逐步推高；报道称乌克兰同意美所提计划核心条款，特朗普称仅剩少数分歧，已指派美官员与俄乌双 | | | 方就和平计划展开磋商。国内黄金 ETF 持续流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1137.4 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 | | | 90.4 吨，维持不变；伦敦 10 月黄金库存 8926 吨，增加 18 吨；上期所白银库存 540 吨，增加 8 吨；金交所 | | | 白银库存上周库存 715 吨，减少 58 吨，COMEX 白银库 ...

农产品早报 2025-11-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆震荡，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本稳定。周二国内豆粕现货持稳，华东报 2980 元/ 吨，豆粕成交一般、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 231.73 万吨，上周压榨大豆 233.44 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 7.98 天环比下降 0.25 天，港口大豆上周去库，但同比仍较高，豆粕库存回 升至 100 万吨以上，因压榨量较大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西大豆产区 11 月降雨水平同比往年略低，12 月预报雨量较多，预计播种较为顺利。11 月 USDA 月报 预估 25/26 年度全球大豆产量与消费量已几乎持平，同时，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 Investment Consulting Business Qualification： CSRC License [2012] No. 669 China Commodity Futures Cross-Border Arbitrage Weekly Report 中国商品期货跨境套利周报 November 25, 2025 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi CFA PhD 从业资格号 ：F3023159 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013632 Investment consulting No. 姜婧 Jiang Jing CFA 从业资格号：F3018552 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013315 Investment consulting No. 王含章 Wang Hanzhang 从业资格号：F03121254 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0022985 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本 ...

本作物年度，美国玉米累计出口检验量为6.88亿蒲式耳，同比增长72%；小麦累计出口检验量4.72亿蒲 式耳，增长20%；大豆累计出口检验量为4.02亿蒲式耳，同比减少3.22亿蒲式耳，创17年来新低。 新华财经纽约11月24日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价24日全线下跌。 短期来看，全球农产品市场缺乏方向。不过，随着即将进入12月，南美洲天气及其潜在威胁将成为影响 农产品价格的重要因素。目前巴西大豆播种工作已经完成，虽然巴西中部和北部即将迎来持续降雨，但 整体南美洲天气继续正常发展。市场分析机构观点认为，在南美洲没有恶劣天气的情况下，冬季期间美 国大豆销售将变得更加困难。 消息面上，美国农业部24日发布的出口检验报告显示，截至11月20日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为6400 万蒲式耳，低于前一周的8100万蒲式耳；小麦出口检验量1700万蒲式耳，高于前一周的900万蒲式耳， 创六周新高；大豆出口检验量2900万蒲式耳，低于前一周的4400万蒲式耳，创七周新低。美国玉米和小 麦出口检验量接近预期上限，而大豆出货量令人失望。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式 ...

2025年11月24日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五贵金属价格震荡，伦敦金冲高回落依旧未能站稳 4100 美元。 基本面：美联储"三把手"纽约联储行长威廉姆斯称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期 12 月降息概率盘中 突破 70%美国劳工统计局取消 10 月 CPI 发布，11 月 CPI 12 月 18 日发，不含环比涨幅；美国 11 月标普全 球综合 PMI 初值为 54.8，四个月来最高，服务业 PMI 增长加快，制造业 PMI 增长放缓。欧元区 11 月服务业 PMI 初值 53.1 创一年半新高，但制造业 PMI 初值 49.7，意外重回荣枯线下方，德法制造业双双恶化；日本 批准 21.3 万亿日元经济刺激计划，为疫情以来最大规模。国内黄金 ETF 持续流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1148.7 吨，减少 0.1 吨；上期所黄金库存 90.4 吨，维持不变；伦敦 10 月黄金库存 8926 吨，增加 18 吨；上期所白 银库存 519 吨，减少 16 吨；金交所白银库存上周库存 774 吨，减少 47 吨，COMEX 白银库存 14327 吨，减 少增 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2980至3040区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆探底回升，中国继续少量采购美豆和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归震荡等 待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美 豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期处于淡季和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度， 短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2970（华东），基差-42，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加27.52%。偏空 4 ...

本作物年度，美国小麦累计出口销量5.45亿蒲式耳，比去年同期增加1.08亿蒲式耳；玉米累计出口销量 11.57亿蒲式耳，同比增加4.62亿蒲式耳；大豆累计出口销量4.7亿蒲式耳，同比减少2.65亿蒲式耳。 美国农业部将于25日发布下一份每周出口销售报告，届时将公布截至10月9日当周的美国销售数据。 新华财经纽约11月20日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米、小麦和大豆期价20日全线下 跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.4150美元，比前一交易 日下跌8.00美分，跌幅为1.78%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.4150美元，比前一交易日下跌8.00 美分，跌幅为1.46%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳11.2300美元，比前一交易日下跌13.25美分，跌 幅为1.17%。 受贸易需求放缓影响，芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价当日下跌，未能维持早盘上涨。由于美国小麦、豆 粕和大豆价格居高不下，交易员不愿追涨。美国大豆价格已使其在全球市场中处于劣势。再加上市场抛 售，芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价正承受压力。 美国农业部20日发布的出口销量报告显示， ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index fell by 1.19%, closing at 30.1058 points, with a slight increase observed during the Asia-Pacific afternoon session, reaching a daily high of 30.6486 points before the US market opened and subsequently declined [1] - CBOT corn futures decreased by 0.85%, settling at $4.3775 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 1.50%, closing at $5.4125 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures fell by 1.17%, ending at $11.23 per bushel, while soybean meal futures decreased by 1.24% and soybean oil futures declined by 0.68% [1] - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 0.82%, whereas live cattle futures fell by 0.99% and feeder cattle futures dropped by 1.74% [1]