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大越期货豆粕早报-20250827
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:33
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-27 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 近期要闻: 1.中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆,美国大豆天气近期相对良好,短期 美盘受美农报数据相对利多影响震荡回升,预期千点关口上方震荡,未来等 待美豆生长和收割情况以及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续进一步指引。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面:美豆震荡回落,美豆丰产预期打压盘面和技术性震荡整理,美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落,美 豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理,八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面上 涨高度,短期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差:现货 ...
【环球财经】芝加哥农产品期价26日涨跌不一
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 22:37
美国玉米、高粱和玉米即将迎来丰收。市场分析机构怀疑市场尚未低估今年美国玉米的丰收规模,预计 大豆、玉米期价将再创新低。 天气预报显示,未来5天大雨将席卷美国平原和三角洲地区,随后向北移动至中西部地区西部。9月3日 之后,美国中西部地区东部降雨概率将有所提升。美国中部地区将迎来秋天。 (文章来源:新华财经) 新华财经纽约8月26日电(记者徐静)芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价26日涨跌不一。 当天,芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.1美元,比前一交易日下跌2.75 美分,跌幅为0.67%;小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.32美元,比前一交易日上涨2美分,涨幅为0.38%; 大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.5美元,比前一交易日上涨1.75美分,涨幅为0.17%。 随着全球现货小麦市场回落,美国小麦期价上涨。世界小麦市场可能要到 9 月中下旬才会出现季节性底 部。与此同时,由于美国和全球供应量巨大,玉米、大豆期货价格下跌。预计今年全球玉米出口国供应 量将增加7100万至7400万吨。全球玉米出口国供应充足,正在寻求市场需求。 ...
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨,玉米期货跌0.73%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-26 22:37
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,当地时间8月26日,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨,大 豆期货涨0.12%报1049.00美分/蒲式耳,玉米期货跌0.73%报409.25美分/蒲式耳,小麦期货涨0.38%报 531.75美分/蒲式耳。 ...
期货高手苏冰心梗去世,年仅40岁,因过度劳累导致,去年刚当爸爸
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 14:07
近日,期货交易高手苏冰被曝已去世,年仅40岁,关于其去世原因,有媒体向业内人士证实,苏冰是因突发心梗不幸去世。 本文陈述内容皆有可靠信息来源,赘述在文章结尾 说起苏冰的发家史,那真是跌宕起伏。 2015年他刚进期货圈时,手里有60万本金,结果三个月就亏到只剩8万,差点就此退出江湖。 但他没有放弃,反而从失败中总结出一个道理:期货不是赌博,得先搞懂背后的逻辑。 经过不断的学习,他慢慢摸索出了自己的交易方法:先看基本面,再做短线。 什么意思呢?比如做大豆期货,他会先研究种植面积、天气变化,做原油期货,就关注国际政策、供需关系。 然后再结合技术图表,抓住短期的价格波动。 明天和意外,你永远不知道哪一个先到来! 举个例子,2020年疫情刚开始时,大家都在恐慌抛售农产品期货。 苏冰却发现巴西大豆产区正在闹旱灾,判断后期肯定会减产涨价,果断买入。 结果三个月就赚了400万。 他经常对新人说:"我不是运气好,而是每次交易前都会把买卖的理由写下来。" 他还特别指出,期货圈有个铁律:单笔亏损绝不能超过本金的2%,宁可错过机会,也不能被套牢。 这一策略让他的收益一路呈"阶梯式涨"。 刚开始的三年,苏冰磕磕碰碰的,从8万块钱慢慢做 ...
大越期货豆粕早报-20250826
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 02:57
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-26 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 1.中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆,美国大豆天气近期相对良好,短期 美盘受美农报数据相对利多影响震荡回升,预期千点关口上方震荡,未来等 待美豆生长和收割情况以及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续进一步指引。 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面:美豆震荡回落,美豆丰产预期打压盘面和技术性震荡整理,美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升,美 豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理,八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面上 涨高度,短期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差:现货3010(华 ...
资讯早间报-20250826
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 00:58
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师:王静,执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明: 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考,并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送,版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可, 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版,复制,引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/08/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周一夜盘收盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌互现,SC 原油、焦煤涨超 1%,沥青、 低硫燃料油(LU)、焦炭涨近 1%。跌幅方面,玻璃、棕榈油跌近 1%。 3. 国际油价延续上涨,美油主力合约收涨 1.70%,报 64.74 美元/桶;布伦特原 油主力合约涨 1.41%,报 68.17 美元/桶。 4. 国际农产品期货涨跌互现, ...
大越期货豆粕早报-20250822
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:57
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-22 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面:美豆震荡回升,油脂上涨带动和技术性震荡整理,美豆千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落,获利盘回吐 和技术性震荡整理,八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面上涨高度,短 期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差:现货2990(华东),基差-123,贴水期货。偏空 3.库存:油厂豆粕库存100.35万吨,上周104.16万吨,环比减少3.66%,去年同期147.01万 吨,同比减少31.74%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日均线上方且方向向 ...
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨,玉米期货涨2.17%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-21 22:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on August 21, with all major contracts closing higher [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures increased by 1.83%, closing at 1055.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures rose by 2.17%, ending at 412.75 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a smaller increase of 0.33%, closing at 530.00 cents per bushel [1]
综合晨报-20250821
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 09:59
Group 1: Energy - International oil prices rose overnight, with Brent's October contract up 1.65%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly dropped by 6.014 million barrels due to increased exports and decreased imports. The negotiation of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement has stalled again, and the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing needs to be revised. It is recommended to continue holding the long strangle strategy of out-of-the-money options for hedging and then enter medium-term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil shipped from the Middle East to Asia has been increasing continuously. The heavy residue fuel oil inventory in Fujairah has decreased. In August, the total arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June despite the decline in Russia's shipment volume. The expectation of increased supply of heavy resources from the Middle East still exerts relative pressure on the market [20]. - After the US resumed importing oil from Venezuela, the diversion effect on North Asian resources is expected to gradually emerge. Sinopec's cumulative asphalt production has shown an expanding year-on-year decline due to the increase in deep processing load. As the "Golden September and Silver October" construction peak season approaches, road demand is expected to pick up. The spot price of asphalt is supported by the low year-on-year basis in South China and the center of the spot price in Shandong has moved down. The unilateral price of BU follows the fluctuation of SC but with a smaller amplitude, and the low inventory still supports the price. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the October contract expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - The overseas market of liquefied petroleum gas has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the arrival volume of imports and the release of refineries have increased, and domestic gas is still under pressure. After the decline of naphtha driven by the fall of crude oil, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Under the expectation of a subsequent decline in chemical gross profit, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be concerned. The market is waiting for the realization of bearish expectations. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the top pressure is relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded overnight. The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that officials generally supported keeping interest rates unchanged, believing that interest rates are not far from the neutral level. Recent progress in Russia-Ukraine related talks has led to insufficient driving force for the continuous upward movement of gold. Precious metals will continue to fluctuate, and investors should patiently wait for the callback to find a layout position [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper rebounded overnight after a period of oscillating decline, closing slightly below the MA60 moving average. The content of the Fed's minutes basically met market expectations, and most members were still more concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation. The price of domestic spot copper was reported at 78,770 yuan yesterday. The spread between refined and scrap copper has shrunk to within 1,000 yuan, the operating rate of the scrap copper recycling industry is low, and refined copper consumption has replaced scrap copper. The copper market is still cautiously evaluating the risk of economic growth, and short positions above 79,000 yuan for SHFE copper should be held [3]. - SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate overnight. The downstream operating rate has stabilized, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off-season may be approaching. The inventory is likely to remain at a relatively low level this year. SHFE aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term [4]. - Cast aluminum alloy oscillates following SHFE aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remains at 19,900 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. It has certain resilience relative to the aluminum price, and the cross-variety spread between the spot and AL may gradually narrow [5]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the SHFE warehouse receipts have been continuously increasing. The supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the spot indexes in various regions are declining. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and the 3,000 yuan integer mark provides support [6]. - Constrained by overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally regarded as facing pressure on the upside during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policy. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rebounds should be maintained [7]. - Due to the constraints on overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally expected to face pressure during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policies. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [7]. - The loss of recycled lead has deepened, and there are more enterprises reducing or suspending production. The SMM refined-scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lead price. Whether the weak consumption can form a bottom-up negative feedback to force the upstream raw material prices down is the key to the decline of the lead price. Given the different tax policies in various regions and the still existing difficulty in cross-provincial transportation of scrap batteries, the price of scrap batteries remains resilient. The downside space of SHFE lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. As the start of the school season approaches, it is advisable to hold long positions with a stop-loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - SHFE nickel is in the middle to late stage of the rebound, and investors are advised to actively enter short positions. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive weeks. However, the downstream end-users' acceptance of high-priced stainless steel products remains poor. In addition, the production schedule of stainless steel in August is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. There is still some uncertainty in the market. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,200 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 125 yuan. The price support from the upstream has slightly rebounded recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel-iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Attention should be paid to the signs of the end of de-stocking [9]. - The tin price oscillated overnight. The inventory of LME tin for concentrated delivery has increased slightly, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium has converged to $32. The market divergence in the tin market has increased. On the one hand, the fundamentals are relatively strong. In July, the physical import volume of domestic tin concentrates decreased again, the customs clearance of Burmese tin ore was at a low level, and the domestic tin raw materials were in short supply, and the overseas inventory was low. On the other hand, most base metal varieties are sensitive to long-term demand concerns. Short-term long positions should be held with reference to the MA60 moving average [10]. Group 4: Chemicals - The polycrystalline silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has triggered emotional fluctuations. The "market-oriented" clearance orientation has adjusted the expectations of the capacity policy, but it has reiterated that "selling below cost price" is not allowed, so the downside space of the price is limited. The previous rebound high of 53,000 yuan/ton has become a resistance level, and the valuation support at the bottom of the market is about 48,000 yuan/ton. In summary, the market is still in an oscillating adjustment phase where "policy logic prevails over fundamental logic" [12]. - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting has reiterated the resistance to low-price competition, and the expectation of policy support still exists. The supply and demand in the fundamentals have both increased, but the improvement is limited. The price in Xinjiang has dropped by another 200 yuan/ton to 8,850 yuan/ton (SMM). The market is expected to continue to oscillate. If the policy expectations decline in the future, there will be a certain risk of correction [13]. - The urea market is affected by the news of the third batch of quotas and the relaxation of export country restrictions. The agricultural demand is in the off-season, and the production of compound fertilizers for autumn is mainly focused on high-phosphorus fertilizers, which generally has a limited boost to the urea market. The production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. There are both potential exports and goods gathering at ports, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The short-term supply and demand of urea are loose, and the market is greatly affected by emotions and export news [23]. - The methanol inventory at ports has been continuously accumulating. The import arrival volume has slightly decreased, the operating rate of MTO plants in the East China coastal area has been continuously low, and there are no plans for复产 in the short term. The port inventory may break through the historical high at the end of the third quarter. The operating load of methanol plants has slightly increased, and the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has increased. The inland market is relatively stronger than the port market. The short-term supply and demand weakness in the coastal area will continue. Attention should be paid to the situation of overseas plants and market emotions [24]. - The price of straight-run benzene fluctuated significantly yesterday due to news stimulation and closed with a negative line at night. Recently, the inventory at the pure benzene port has slightly decreased, the import pressure has been relieved, and there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply and demand in the third quarter due to domestic maintenance and increased downstream demand. The supply and demand may face pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct band trading on the monthly spread [25]. - The moving average system of the main contract of styrene futures is intertwined, and the market continues to consolidate. Fundamentally, the cost side provides bottom support for styrene, but there is a lack of unilateral driving force. The plants are operating stably, and the market supply is sufficient. The production of downstream three-S products is expected to continue to increase slightly, and they maintain purchasing on dips, but the boost is limited [26]. - The supply of propylene is relatively abundant, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient. The differentiation of enterprise shipments has intensified, and the offers are mainly slightly discounted. High-end transactions are relatively limited. The supply pressure of polyethylene still exists, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory and are cautious about price increases. The demand side is slowly following up, providing limited support to the market. The supply side of polypropylene still has support. Although there are new plants about to be put into operation, their short-term impact on the market is limited. The recovery of downstream demand is slow, and the lack of terminal orders has led to the downstream enterprises maintaining low raw material inventory. The peak-season stocking has not yet started, and the market trading atmosphere is light [27]. - PVC is operating weakly. India has issued a final anti-dumping duty ruling on imported PVC, with a significant increase for mainland China, increasing the export pressure. Although there are more maintenance activities, the overall supply remains at a high level. The overall demand is still insufficient, and the social inventory has been continuously increasing since July. The profit of the chlor-alkali integration is fair, and the cost support is not obvious. With poor demand and high production, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is operating strongly. The non-aluminum downstream in Shandong is taking delivery well, and the purchasing enthusiasm is high. The inventory continues to decrease. A factory in Shandong has started production, and the operating load has increased. The demand from the alumina industry provides fair support. The recent restocking sentiment of the non-aluminum downstream has increased. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of restocking. Supported by short-term restocking demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, the supply pressure remains, and the expected increase in price is limited [28]. - The PX and PTA markets were relatively strong yesterday due to news influence and closed with doji lines at night. The short-term market supply is stable, and there are signs of improvement in the weaving industry, with an expected increase in demand. The supply and demand of PX are expected to improve in the third quarter, and the improvement in valuation will be an important upward driving force for the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the direction of oil prices and the rhythm of demand recovery [29]. - The profit of the ethylene glycol industry is poor. If the industry resolves the problem of petrochemical overcapacity through maintenance in the future, there is a large space for the recovery of the profit of petroleum-based ethylene glycol. However, the impact of news is short-term. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of policies. Recently, the port inventory has been accumulating, the industry operating rate has increased, and there are signs of improvement in demand. The ethylene glycol market is facing both long and short factors. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the policies and the rhythm of the increase in peak-season demand [30]. - The supply and demand of short fibers are stable, and the market is mainly driven by cost. The new production capacity of short fibers this year is limited, and the increase in peak-season demand will boost the industry's expectations. In the medium term, a long position is recommended, and a positive spread trading strategy on the monthly spread can be considered. The processing margin of bottle chips is oscillating at a low level. Overcapacity is a long-term pressure, which will limit the recovery space of the processing margin of bottle chips. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies in the petrochemical industry [31]. Group 5: Building Materials - The glass market continues to decline. The weak reality persists, and the spot price continues to decline and inventory accumulates. Due to the military parade in September, the processing operations in the Shahe area have been affected. Recently, the production capacity has not fluctuated much, and the daily melting volume remains at a relatively high level of 159,600 tons. The processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still weak year-on-year. Although the market is trading on the weak reality, the cost has increased, and it is expected that the price will not break through the previous low [32]. - The soda ash market has fallen sharply. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory at the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain is all high. The weak reality pattern persists. Yuanxing has future production plans, and the supply shows an increasing trend. The fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry have recently improved, the price has rebounded, and some blocked kilns have been reopened, leading to a slight increase in the rigid demand for heavy soda ash. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply of soda ash remains unchanged, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels [34]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - The latest good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and it is still at a historically high level for the same period. In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main US soybean-producing areas will be generally normal, but the lack of rain will gradually become more serious, posing challenges to the growth of new-season crops. In China, the spot price of soybean meal has increased significantly recently, and the market is continuously concerned about the supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Currently, the sales progress of Brazilian soybeans has exceeded 80%, and the premium is high. Given the unclear situation of Sino-US trade, there are still uncertainties in the far-month supply. The oil mill crushing rate in China is stable, and the inventory reduction of soybean meal is limited. Currently, positive factors are gradually emerging. After the Sino-US-Swedish talks, although the mutual addition of tariffs has been postponed, the tariff issue still exists. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors should wait for the callback to enter the market [35]. - The US crop inspection shows that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska has increased year-on-year, reaching the highest level since 2003. The number of soybean pods in Indiana has slightly decreased year-on-year but is still higher than the average of the past three years. The American Soybean Association issued a statement this week strongly urging the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market, which is crucial for US soybeans. The market expects that the US Environmental Protection Agency will soon make a key decision on the biofuel exemption for refineries. The Trump administration granted exemptions to small refineries in the previous term, and the market is worried that the exemptions will occur again, which has suppressed the price of US soybean oil. The domestic soybean and palm oil markets showed a pattern of reducing positions and correcting. In the short term, attention should be paid to the movement of funds and the guidance of relevant policies. In the medium term, overseas palm oil is in a production reduction cycle. In the long term, the long-term development trends of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. It is advisable to consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips, but pay attention to the risk of large price fluctuations after reaching high levels [36]. - The overseas rapeseed market fluctuated little overnight. As new-season crops will be listed one after another and there are few variables
新陈大豆供应平稳,花生市场信心不足
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of new and old soybeans is stable, while the peanut market lacks confidence. The soybeans futures showed a weak oscillation, and the low - protein auction soybeans prices are under pressure. The peanut futures had a weak adjustment, with the demand side remaining sluggish and traders lacking confidence [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 4036.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 224, up 10 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] - In the northeast market, soybean prices in some producing areas dropped slightly due to the decline in low - protein prices and the impact of state - reserve auctions. In the sales areas, the trading volume was relatively low due to high temperatures and poor demand. Specific prices in different regions of Heilongjiang showed some declines or remained stable [1] - The bean - one futures showed a weak oscillation. The auctions of central and local soybeans continued, and the lower reserve price increased the transaction rate, but the Heilongjiang provincial - reserve soybean auction failed. The soybeans in the northeast and inland areas are in the late growth stage with good growth and weather conditions. High - protein soybean prices were stable, while low - protein soybean prices were under pressure [2] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7782.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous day. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8260.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 318.00, up 46.00 (+16.91%) from the previous day [3] - The peanut market is in the transition period between new and old peanuts. The average price of old peanuts is stable, and they are being cleared from inventory. New peanuts' prices are rising steadily, and the number of new - peanut - listing areas and the supply are increasing. The peanut futures had a weak adjustment. The overall trading atmosphere of domestic peanut spots is average, and the demand is sluggish [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [5]