交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-03-03 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2800至2860区间震荡 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，中美贸易关系不确定性仍存和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期偏强震 荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区收割天气指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 走势带动和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多空交织短期或维持区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3010（华东），基差184，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存84.25万吨，上周83.94万吨，环比增加0.37%，去年同期49.88万吨， 同比增加68.91%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且 ...

期货研究报告 生猪 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0411-84807266 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 需求与成本支撑下 豆类博弈加剧 核心观点 国际：当前美豆市场呈现震荡偏强运行格局。一方面，美国农业部 2 月报告维持美豆产量与高达 3.5 亿蒲式耳的期末库存预估不变，奠定了 供需宽松的基调，而南美创纪录的丰产预期进一步强化了全球供应压力， 为美豆价格设置了明确的天花板。但另一方面，美国国内压榨需求异常强 劲，处于历史性高景气周期，这为美豆价格提供了关键的底部支撑。其核 心驱动力来源于生物燃料政策，美国环保署的掺混量规定与财政部的税 收抵免政策共同作用，将豆油需求与生物燃料产业深 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-03-02 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2800至2860区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美国生物燃料政策利多豆油带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期偏 强震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡 回落，美豆走势带动和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多空交织短期或维持区间震荡格 局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差187，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存84.25万吨，上周83.94万吨，环比增加0.37%，去年同期49.88万吨， 同比增加68.91%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20 ...

2.2月26日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期价收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低0.20%，主要因为大豆 出口销售疲软以及多头获利平仓。截至收盘，大豆期价下跌0.25～2.00美分不等，其中3月期价下跌0.50 美分，报收1147.75美分/蒲；5月期价下跌1.50美分，报收1163.50美分/蒲。 （来源：国家粮食和物资储备数据中心） 3.美国农业部周度出口销售报告显示，截至2月19日，2025/26年度（9月/8月）美国大豆销售总量3565万 吨，比去年同期的4389万吨减少18.8%；其中对华销售1066.4万吨，比去年同期的2095.0万吨减少 49.1%，其中616.1万吨已经装运。 4．阿根廷农业部表示，2026年第七周阿根廷农户新季大豆销售步伐加快。截至2月18日，阿根廷农户预 售2025/26年度大豆535万吨，比一周前增加17万吨，去年同期524万吨；销售2024/25年度大豆4380万 吨，比一周前增加16万吨，去年同期3855万吨。 5.2月26日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）豆油期价收盘上涨，其中基准期约收高1.8%，因为美国环境保 护署（EPA）计划将此前小型炼油厂豁免的一半生物燃料义 ...

2026年02月27日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：昨日贵金属继续震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 | | | | | | 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价的国 | | | 5184 | | | | | | | | | 0.38%至 | | 金 | 际银价跌 美元/盎司。 | 1.01%至 | 88.272 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属 | 基本面：英伟达年报业绩未能缓解市场担忧，股票大跌 | | | | 5%，拖累纳斯达克表现，不过 | | | | | | | | 年报显示业绩良 | | | DELL | | | | | | 好，盘后大涨；美联储理事米兰周四重申，尽管劳动力市场改善，仍预计 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间2月26日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大 豆期货跌0.17%报1163.00美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.40%报443.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨0.75%报 574.00美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is committed to enhancing the agricultural product futures market to support rural development and ensure national food security, aligning with the central government's policies for agricultural modernization and poverty alleviation [1][8]. Group 1: Market Development and Optimization - In the past year, DCE has focused on improving the operational quality and efficiency of the agricultural product futures market, implementing tailored strategies for different products [2]. - In 2025, DCE's agricultural futures and options trading volume exceeded 1.4 billion contracts, with an average daily open interest of over 11.44 million contracts, establishing a solid foundation for risk management in the agricultural sector [2]. Group 2: Quality Standards and Delivery Management - Starting from the C2505 contract in 2025, DCE revised the corn futures delivery quality standards, increasing the weight requirement for standard corn from ≥675g/L to ≥685g/L, and for alternative corn from ≥650g/L to ≥660g/L, enhancing price representation [3]. - DCE also adjusted the delivery standards for live pig futures, modifying the average weight requirement and removing certain price deduction rules, which reflects a commitment to improving delivery quality [3]. Group 3: Innovative Delivery and Risk Management - In 2025, DCE implemented group delivery and self-reported price adjustment for soybean meal and oil, establishing fixed price adjustment warehouses across several provinces, which supports local agricultural economies [4]. - DCE completed over 600,000 delivery contracts in the past year, with a total delivery value of 16.9 billion yuan, maintaining zero errors in transaction processing, thereby providing robust risk management for agricultural enterprises [4]. Group 4: Farmer Income Protection Initiatives - DCE has been actively promoting the "insurance + futures" model to help farmers stabilize and increase their income, conducting 199 projects across 19 provinces in 2025, covering 98.43 million tons of goods and 625,600 acres of farmland [7]. - The total premium for these projects reached 201 million yuan, reinforcing the financial safety net for farmers and enhancing the efficiency of insurance claims [7]. Group 5: Future Directions - DCE plans to continue strengthening the agricultural product futures market in line with the 2026 central government directives, focusing on developing a comprehensive product tool system and enhancing the replicability of income protection projects [8]. - The exchange aims to improve participation from industry clients, addressing challenges to enhance the operational efficiency and market competitiveness of agricultural enterprises [8].

2026年02月26日 星期四 商品期货早班车 期货研究 | 铝 | 交易策略：加纳将铝土矿原矿禁止出口日期设定在 2030 年，由于加纳占中国铝土矿总进口量不足 1%，相关 | | --- | --- | | | 影响有限。氧化铝基本面仍维持供需宽松格局，但行业减产预期、反内卷政策扰动，将为价格带来潜在的向 | | | 上驱动，盘面上行空间将取决于供需格局的边际变化，预计价格维持震荡偏强。 | | | 风险提示：减产不及预期。 | | | 市场表现：LC2605 收于 152,640 元/吨（+ 3220），收盘价+2.15% | | | 基本面：SMM 澳大利亚锂辉石精矿（CIF 中国）现货报价为 2250 美元/吨，较前日+140 元/吨，SMM 电碳报 | | | 161243（+9218）元/吨，Mysteel 优质碳酸锂晚盘价 165300（+9800）元/吨。供给方面，节前周产量为 20184 | | | 吨，环比-560 吨。SMM 2 81,930 吨，环比-16.3%。需求方面，磷酸铁锂 SMM2 预计 月碳酸锂排产为 月排 | | | 产为 35.4 万吨，环比-10.7%，符合需求季节 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间2月25日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大 豆期货涨0.87%报1165.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.80%报442.00美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.52%报 570.25美分/蒲式耳。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Sugar: On hold [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the USD index expected to range between 95 - 102. The RMB may show a stable upward trend with limited depreciation space [7]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on their respective market conditions, such as long LME copper and short SHFE copper for copper futures, and long LME zinc and short SHFE zinc for zinc futures. For most other commodities, a wait - and - see approach is suggested [4][6][37][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference and overseas price difference fluctuated. This week, due to the neutral valuation of the domestic - international price difference and the high - level volatility of the RMB exchange rate, it's recommended to hold off on cross - market arbitrage [13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference first rose and then fell, and the overseas price difference declined. This week, as the domestic - international price difference has returned to a neutral level and the tightness of overseas silver spot has marginally eased, the strategy of shorting the domestic - international price difference should be exited [19]. - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the previous high - premium situation in the domestic market was rectified. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [25]. - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the high - premium state was rectified. This week, cross - border arbitrage should be put on hold [31]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, the LME cancellation warrant ratio was high, the overseas squeeze risk remained, and the import profit of forward contracts was unlocked. This week, it's recommended to focus on taking a long position in LME copper and a short position in SHFE copper in forward contracts [37]. - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to accumulate, while overseas inventories decreased. In the short term, the exchange ratio fluctuated within a range. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [42]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc ingot exports gradually decreased, the accumulation speed of LME zinc inventory slowed down, and domestic zinc ingot inventory seasonally accumulated. This week, it's recommended to focus on going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [51]. - **Lead**: Last week, LME lead inventory significantly accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window closed. This week, cross - market arbitrage of lead ingots should be put on hold [52]. - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window closed, the nickel balance ratio fluctuated, and domestic and foreign inventories remained at relatively high levels. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [59]. - **Tin**: Last week, the short - term tin balance ratio fluctuated, the inventories of Shanghai tin and LME tin both increased, and the domestic - international price difference was not significant. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [63]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant driving factors. This week, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [67]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent spread fluctuated and rebounded. This week, due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, the large fluctuation of freight rates, and the potential geopolitical risks, it's recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the TFU - HH spread fluctuated widely. This week, it's recommended to reduce positions or exit. In the short term, the trading of overseas gas prices mainly depends on the weather, and in the medium term, the fundamentals may tighten in the US and loosen in Europe, which is negative for the TFU - HH spread [104]. 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the soybean crushing profit fluctuated weakly. The US soybean price was strong due to optimistic export expectations, while the domestic market sentiment was weak after the pre - holiday stockpiling ended. This week, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [73]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the domestic - international sugar price difference was at a historically high level and continued to widen. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [78]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there were no major changes, and the price spread was within the non - arbitrage range. With the approaching of the global rubber tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [82]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates decreased, putting pressure on the copper price spread between COMEX and LME. However, the expectation of US copper tariffs limited the downward space. This week, arbitrage between COMEX and LME copper should be put on hold [89]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS fluctuated. This week, as the OPEC+ April production policy is undetermined and the Middle - East geopolitical situation is tense, it's recommended to wait and see [94]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent spread narrowed. This week, although the US refined oil inventory is decreasing, the strengthening of oil freight rates has widened the cross - regional spread, and its sustainability needs further observation. It's recommended to wait and see [100]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: See the content under the "Energy" section [104].