Workflow
大豆期货
icon
Search documents
商品期货早班车-20260401
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 03:19
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0
冠通期货油粕日报:油粕日报-20260331
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 11:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is under downward pressure due to the smooth progress of the Brazilian soybean harvest, a slight increase in production, the continuation of the South American high - yield expectation, and the under - expected US soybean export data, along with the expansion of the oil - meal ratio. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For spot trading, it is advisable to actively set prices when the price is low. Attention should be paid to the release of the new quarterly US soybean estimated planting area tonight [1][2] - The palm oil market is expected to continue to be strong. The Indonesian president announced the promotion of B50 implementation to deal with the energy crisis caused by the Middle - East situation, which led to a significant increase in palm oil and Malaysian palm oil prices. However, the implementation of B50 in Indonesia still takes time, and the crude oil price is the main factor affecting the implementation schedule [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean and Bean Meal - As of March 26, 2026, the harvest progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean was 75%, up from 68% a week ago but still behind the 82% of the same period last year. The harvest is mainly concentrated in Rio Grande do Sul and the Matopiba region. The rainfall last week hindered the harvester operation to some extent, but it was beneficial to some soybeans in the filling stage in Rio Grande do Sul. AgRural predicted the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output to be 178.4 million tons, higher than the 178 million tons predicted in February, a 4.02% increase from the 171.5 million tons in 2024/25 [1] - As of the week ending March 26, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 586,427 tons, lower than the market expectation of 600,000 - 1,250,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1,114,711 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 270,424 tons, accounting for 46.11% of the total. As of the week ending March 27, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 817,870 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 29,783,385 tons, compared with 40,774,757 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Vegetable Oil - According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 20, 2026 increased by 0.92%. Among them, the production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 3.61%, in Sabah increased by 5.59%, in Sarawak increased by 9.87%, and in East Malaysia increased by 6.67% [2] - Affected by the rising international crude oil price due to the Middle - East conflict, the Indonesian government is re - evaluating its biofuel strategy. The Indonesian president announced that the mixing ratio of palm oil and diesel will be increased from 40% to 50% this year. The US biofuel report was neutral, with strong support at the bottom. The promotion of B50 in Indonesia led to a sharp rise in palm oil prices, but its implementation still takes time, and the crude oil price is the main influencing factor [3]
大越期货豆粕早报-20260331
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 02:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For bean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybeans are oscillating downward due to increased planting area and technical adjustment. The domestic bean meal is affected by the US soybeans and sufficient supply expectations. Although China's continuous procurement of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, the completion of procurement volume and good weather in South America limit its upside. The domestic bean meal will enter an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [9]. - For soybeans A2605, it is predicted to oscillate between 4560 and 4660. The US soybeans are in an oscillating state, waiting for the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the weather in South American harvesting areas. The domestic soybeans are affected by the US soybeans, the Middle - East conflict, and short - term demand, and will maintain a high - level oscillation. The purchase volume of US soybeans by China is uncertain, and the good weather in South America restricts the upside of the US soybean market. Domestic soybean storage and cost - performance advantages support the bottom, but the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production and spot prices limit the upside [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 2960, and soybeans A2605 between 4560 - 4660. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean planting area, China - US trade, South American weather, and domestic supply and demand [9] [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the purchase volume and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short term, waiting for further information on South American soybean harvesting, import arrivals, and China - US trade negotiations. - The domestic import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in March. With normal weather in South American soybean planting, the bean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations of pig replenishment, suppressing the price of bean meal in March. The impact of US soybeans and weak demand for bean meal coexist. - The high inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal, potential weather speculation in South American soybean areas, and the preliminary China - US trade agreement make the bean meal oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. It awaits further clarity on the Middle - East situation, South American soybean production, and China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bean meal bullish factors: preliminary China - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; no pressure on the inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal; uncertain weather in South American soybean areas. - Bean meal bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in March; expected high yield of South American soybeans with normal weather. - Soybean bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Soybean bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement; expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses prices [14] [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Transaction data**: From March 20 to March 30, the average transaction price of bean meal decreased from 3396 to 3276, and the trading volume fluctuated. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2440 to 2330, and the trading volume was relatively low. The price difference between bean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16]. - **Price data**: From March 23 to March 30, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and bean meal also decreased [18]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From March 19 to March 30, the number of bean - one, bean - two, and bean - meal warehouse receipts decreased [20]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years. For example, the global soybean output has generally increased from 2016 - 2025, and the domestic soybean import volume has also been at a relatively high level [32] [33]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the content. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased from a low level, also both month - on - month and year - on - year. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the bean - meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, but the bean - meal output in February has slightly decreased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have slightly decreased, and the short - term stocking demand is good. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly. - The pig inventory has slightly increased year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has slightly decreased. The proportion of large pigs in the country has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit loss has expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have dropped to a low level [45] [47] [50] [52] [54] [56] [58] [60] [62] [64] [66]
商品期货早班车-20260327
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 01:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation between the US and Iran [1][6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, the international gold price denominated in London gold fell 2.79% to $4379.82 per ounce. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by ten days. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow of 0.1 tons. It is recommended to consider re - laying out long positions as the sharp drop in gold prices digests previous negative factors [1]. - **Silver**: The international silver price fell 4.45% to $68.059 per ounce. It is suggested that previous short positions gradually take profits as the silver market follows the gold market's fluctuations [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated weakly. The market is focused on the Middle East situation. The supply of copper ore remains tight. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.57% compared to the previous trading day. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side has a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous trading day. The supply side's operating capacity is relatively stable, and the demand side's electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertain Middle East situation and the unclear implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1][2]. - **Zinc and Lead**: The zinc and lead main contracts closed at 23070 yuan/ton and 16460 yuan/ton respectively. The lead market is affected by overseas declines, but the loss of recycled lead and downstream buying on dips may support the price. The zinc LME inventory is low, and the domestic social inventory is high but showing signs of destocking. For lead, pay attention to the destocking situation; for zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or trade high - sell and low - buy [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 05 contract closed at 8735 yuan/ton. The supply side has a decrease in the number of open furnaces, but there is an expectation of increased production in Sichuan. The demand side has a recovery in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries, and the aluminum alloy industry's start - up rate has reached a new high. The price is expected to oscillate between 8100 - 8900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan/ton. The supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has an increase in the production of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials. Pay attention to the new registration speed of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation at the end of March and the production schedule in April [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The main 05 contract closed at 35540 yuan/ton. The supply side's inventory pressure has eased marginally, and the demand side's product prices are declining but at a slower pace. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on downstream procurement and order prices [3]. - **Tin**: The tin price continued to be weak. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the downstream consumption is strong. It is recommended to wait and see due to the non - resonance between the macro and micro aspects [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price changed little. The global supply is expected to be abundant, and the US soybean has strong crushing demand. The US soybean may enter an oscillation, and the domestic market follows the cost side. Pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment [4]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price declined, and the spot price mostly fell. The grain - selling progress is about 80% but slow. Policy wheat auctions have increased, and the wheat price is weakening. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5441 yuan/ton. Due to the rise in international crude oil prices, there is an expectation of a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures price continued to rise, and the international crude oil futures price oscillated strongly. The US cotton export sales increased, and the Indian cotton yarn export also increased. It is recommended to buy on dips in the price range of 15100 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price rose. The demand for Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking has increased, but the overall supply is sufficient. The futures price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price was weak, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply is strong, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to be weak [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side will see a significant reduction in domestic supply due to the non - commissioning of new devices in the first half of the year and the planned reduction of production by some existing devices. The demand side is improving. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [6]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract closed at 5650 yuan/ton. The supply side has a decline in production, and the demand side is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to do a long - short spread [6][7]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 05 contract closed at 3202 yuan/ton. The supply side has been affected by the Middle East conflict, and the port inventory is decreasing. In the short term, the price is dominated by geopolitical factors and shows an "oscillating - strong, high - volatility" pattern [7]. - **Glass**: The fg05 contract closed at 1035 yuan/ton. The supply side is reducing production, and the demand side is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. - **PP**: The PP main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side has a reduction in new device commissioning in the short term, and the demand side is improving. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium - long term, it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price fluctuated due to the US - Iran situation. The conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on global oil supply. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the oil price may continue to rise; if the situation eases, the oil price may reverse [7][8]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side's pure benzene and styrene inventories are decreasing, and the demand side's downstream enterprises are improving but with profit decline. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium - long term, the supply - demand situation may weaken [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa05 contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton. The supply side's production capacity is increasing, and the demand side has a slight increase in photovoltaic glass production and a reduction in float glass production. It is recommended to wait and see [8].
花生购销清淡,盘面震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 05:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean price has ended its unilateral upward trend and may enter a range - bound oscillation. The peanut price will likely maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4609.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 46.00 yuan/ton or - 0.99% from the previous day. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 151, a change of - 74 or 32.14% from the previous day. The decline in spot prices was mainly due to the weakening of the futures market. Some regions' soybean prices are as follows: in Harbin, Heilongjiang, the loading price of national standard first - class 39% protein medium - grain tower grain was 2.44 yuan/jin; in Baoqing, Heilongjiang, it was 2.40 yuan/jin; in Fumian, Heilongjiang, it was 2.42 yuan/jin; in Nehe, Heilongjiang, the 41% protein medium - grain tower grain was 2.50 yuan/jin; in Nenjiang, Heilongjiang, it was 2.50 yuan/jin; in Hailun, Heilongjiang, it was 2.50 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Trends**: The domestic soybean price was previously supported by tight remaining grains and policies, but recently, due to the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, the weakening of CBOT soybeans, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in April, and the implementation of the state - reserve auction policy, the main soybean contract has fallen from its high. The domestic procurement rhythm is weak, and the supply - demand pattern may change, leading to a range - bound oscillation [2] Peanut - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the peanut 2605 contract was 8182.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 32.00 yuan/ton or - 0.39% from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8055.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot basis was PK05 - 1382.00, a change of + 32.00 or - 2.26%. The national average price of general peanuts was stable, with different prices in different regions. The average contract purchase price of oil - making peanuts by oil mills was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton, and the average price in Shandong was 7388 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Trends**: The peanut futures price rose and then fell. The supply of peanuts in the producing areas is still low, and processing enterprises are mostly waiting and purchasing on - demand. The overall trading atmosphere is light. Food enterprises only replenish inventory for essential needs. Although some oil mills have relaxed procurement indicators, the arrival volume has not increased significantly. In the context of weak demand, the peanut price will likely maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term, and the procurement rhythm of oil mills needs to be closely monitored [3][4]
招商期货-期货研究报告:商品期货早班车-20260326
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 01:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is significantly influenced by geopolitical events, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which impacts the prices of various commodities. - Different commodities have distinct supply - demand situations, and investment strategies vary accordingly. Some are recommended for long - position layout, while others suggest short - position exit, temporary observation, or high - selling and low - buying. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices (in London) rose 0.74% to $4505.31/oz, domestic gold prices also increased slightly. International silver prices rose 0.07% to $71.228/oz [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The prospect of US - Iran cease - fire negotiations affects prices. The US import price increase and changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions are also important factors. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider re - laying out long positions in gold; gradually take profits on previous short positions in silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The focus is on the Middle East situation. The supply of copper ore remains tight. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest temporary observation [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased 0.99% to 23,860 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations due to the uncertainty of the Middle East conflict [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased 1.69% to 2,963 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity is relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the core driver possibly concentrated on Guinea's mining policy [3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: Zinc and lead main contracts had price changes on March 25, and there were also changes in inventory [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The non - ferrous sector rebounded from oversold conditions. The lead market has factors affecting supply and demand, and the zinc market has inventory and production factors. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, observe the inventory reduction situation and consider going long if the social inventory continues to decline; for zinc, the price is expected to be weak, and it's recommended to observe or trade with high - selling and low - buying [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract price increased, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, etc [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has an increase in the number of open furnaces, and the demand side has different trends in various industries. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to relevant meetings. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,100 - 8,900 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The LC2605 contract price increased 4.04% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in supply, demand, and inventory, and the market is affected by the situation in Zimbabwe's lithium mines. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on inventory data and new registration speed of warehouse receipts. The short - term market is in a long - short game [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract price increased, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, etc [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been marginally alleviated, and the demand side has a complex situation. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the actual downstream procurement and transaction prices, and mainly adopt an observation strategy [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Focus on the Middle East situation, the supply shortage is slightly alleviated, and the demand side has active procurement. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest observation due to the susceptibility to liquidity shocks [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand and production increased, the market transaction recovered, and there are certain supply - demand and valuation situations. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe, and hold short positions in rebar 2605 cautiously [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in arrival and shipment, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in iron - making water production, and the supply - demand and inventory situations are complex. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe, and hold short positions in coking coal 2605 cautiously [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The global supply is expected to be abundant, and the demand has different characteristics. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans may enter an oscillatory phase. Pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices declined, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress and policy factors affect the price. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to rise, and Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated strongly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in planting area expectations and export data. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range reference of 15,100 - 15,500 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market continued to decline [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand has increased in the short term. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally suggest observation, and pay attention to crude oil and production [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There are factors of demand boost and sufficient supply. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices continued to decline [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong and demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract decreased slightly, and the basis strengthened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to decrease significantly in the short term, and demand is improving. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; go short on rallies in the medium term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price decreased 2.3% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Production increased, demand is weak, and inventory is starting to decline. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest a positive spread strategy [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract price decreased 1.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is weak, and inventory is declining. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying glass and selling soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract decreased slightly, and the basis strengthened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is reduced in the short term, and demand is improving. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; go short on rallies in the medium - long term [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices first declined and then rose [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict has a significant impact on supply and export. - **Trading Strategy**: Oil prices may continue to rise if the strait is blocked, and may reverse if the situation eases [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the demand side has a negative feedback. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; the supply - demand situation will weaken after the conflict eases [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa05 contract price decreased 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest observation [10].
菜粕期货日报-20260319
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 03:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term rapeseed meal fundamentals still have a downward driving force. With the weakness of overseas oilseeds and the domestic demand not yet starting, the futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - On March 17, the closing price of the main rapeseed meal contract (RM.CZC) on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2,485 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decline from the previous trading day. The opening price was 2,462 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2,431 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 769,979 lots, and the open interest was 621,061 lots [2] 2. Spot Market - On March 17, the national average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,715.79 yuan/ton, and the basis for the main contract was 233.79 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the past year. This reflects that the current futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot price, indicating that the market's expectation of loose long - term supply has been fully reflected in the futures pricing [5][6] 3. Influencing Factors - **External Market Linkage**: On March 16, CBOT soybean futures fell 5.66%, and the May contract of ICE Canadian canola futures fell 37.3 Canadian dollars/ton to 702.6 Canadian dollars/ton, dragging down the domestic protein meal sector [7] - **Supply - Demand**: The trade relationship between China and Canada has eased, and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed in the future will increase, raising the long - term supply pressure. Currently, it is not the peak season for aquaculture, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient [7] - **Related Varieties**: Today, the main domestic soybean meal contract (M.DCE) fell 0.42%, and the main rapeseed oil contract (OI.CZC) fell 0.73%. The overall oil and oilseed sector is running weakly [7] 4. Market Outlook - Short - term rapeseed meal fundamentals still have a downward driving force. With the weakness of overseas oilseeds and the domestic demand not yet starting, the futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [8]
大越期货豆粕早报-20260318
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. Influenced by the upward trend of US soybeans, short - term shock is on the strong side. The basis is at a premium, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions have decreased with capital inflow [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Expected to fluctuate between 4880 and 4980. US soybeans are in a short - term strong shock, and domestic soybeans maintain a high - level shock. The basis is at a discount, inventory is relatively high, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions have decreased with capital inflow [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal (M2605) is in the range of 3040 - 3100, and Soybeans (A2605) is in the range of 4880 - 4980. The market is affected by factors such as US - China trade agreements, South American weather, and Middle - East conflicts [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still variables in the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in March. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high, and it was in a short - term strong shock, waiting for further clarity on the Middle - East situation, South American soybean production, and the follow - up of US - China trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Positive factors**: Preliminary agreement on US - China trade negotiations, no pressure on soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and variable weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - **Negative factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in March, and expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions. - **Soybeans** - **Positive factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - **Negative factors**: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses the price [14][15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The average transaction price and volume from March 9th to 17th are presented, and the price of soybean meal futures rebounded, with the spot price relatively strong and the premium at a relatively high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased from a low level, and the soybean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased from a low level, and short - term stocking demand increased [16][23][25]. - **Soybeans**: The futures and spot prices from March 10th to 17th are presented, and the soybean inventory of oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly at a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the shock of US soybeans, and the on - disk profit fluctuated slightly [18][50][56]. 3.5 Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the main short positions decreased, and capital flowed in [9][11]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2016 to 2025, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [32]. - **Domestic**: From 2016 to 2025, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [33]. 3.7 Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress - **2023/24 Argentina**: Data on the sowing and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [34]. - **2024 US**: Data on the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: Data on the planting and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [39][40]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: Data on the planting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [41]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: Data on the planting and harvesting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [42]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: Data on the planting progress are provided, including comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [43]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From July 2025 to February 2026, data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, Brazilian soybean output, and Argentine soybean output are provided [44]. 3.9 Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year. The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit deficit expanded, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio dropped to a low level [45][47][58][60][62][64][66].
冠通期货研究报告:油粕日报:关注近月到港-20260317
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soymeal, due to Brazil's temporary cancellation of a quarantine measure, Brazilian soybean shipments have returned to normal, and the soybeans will arrive in China to resolve quarantine issues. Although the U.S. soybeans hit the daily limit down overnight, the decline of the domestic market was less than that of the external market due to concerns about near - month arrivals. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to near - month arrivals and the schedule of imported soybean auctions [2]. - For oils, the sharp rise in crude oil has made major biofuel - producing countries eager to act. Policy - related benefits such as Indonesia's B50 and the U.S. new biofuel policy are expected to gradually materialize with high crude oil prices. It is estimated that oils will continue to be strong in the short term, but the changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month need to be vigilant [2]. Summary by Related Content Soymeal - As of March 14, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 59.2%, compared with 50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4% [1]. - In the second week of March 2026 (10 working days), Brazil cumulatively shipped 6.5073 million tons of soybeans, with a daily average shipment of 650,700 tons/day, a 15.65% decrease compared to 771,500 tons/day in March last year. It cumulatively shipped 636,400 tons of soymeal, with a daily average shipment of 63,600 tons/day, a 36.95% decrease compared to 100,900 tons/day in March last year [1]. - In the 11th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 240,600 tons (4.20%) from last week and an increase of 2.3181 million tons (73.17%) compared to last year. The soymeal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 133,200 tons (17.51%) from last week and a decrease of 55,700 tons (8.16%) compared to last year [1]. Oils - The NOPA reported that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in February was 2.08 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.93 billion pounds and 1.9 billion pounds in January. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in February was 208.785 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 202.73 million bushels and lower than 221.564 million bushels in January [2]. - On March 13, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 910,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and 10,000 tons year - on - year. The rapeseed oil inventory was 270,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons month - on - month, and a decrease of 470,000 tons year - on - year. The palm oil inventory was 870,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, 130,000 tons month - on - month, and 440,000 tons year - on - year [2].
基差统计表-20260313
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 09:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The document mainly shows the Maike Futures basis statistics table, including the basis rate, spot price, and contract price of various futures products. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 100,860, with a主力基差率 of -0.19% and a change of -0.19% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 25,410, with a主力基差率 of 0.24% [3]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of SMM 0 zinc is 24,285, with a主力基差率 of 0.64% [3]. - **Lead**: The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,655, with a主力基差率 of -0.93% [3]. - **Tin**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 392,650, with a主力基差率 of 0.61% [3]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 140,950, with a主力基差率 of 0.22% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of SMM East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon brick is 8,682, with a主力基差率 of 5.93% [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of steel - linked high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate is 158,250, with a主力基差率 of 1.63% [3]. - **Gold**: The spot price of AuT + D (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is 1,151.52, with a主力基差率 of -5.26 [3]. - **Silver**: The spot price of Ag(T + D) (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is 22,062, with a主力基差率 of -0.96% [3]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,230, with a主力基差率 of 3.53% [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3,275, with a主力基差率 of 1.04% [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of PB powder 61% in Qingdao is 821.5, with a主力基差率 of 3.26% [3]. - **Coke**: The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,896.0, with a主力基差率 of -7.66% [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of main coking coal (Jixian, Mongolia 5) is 1,466.0, with a主力基差率 of 2.99% [3]. - **Power Coal**: The spot price of Shanxi Q500 at Qinhuangdao Port is 801.4, with a主力基差率 of -7.31% [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 6,002, with a主力基差率 of -7.3% [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of FeMn68Si18 in Hebei is 5,920, with a主力基差率 of -0.72% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of 304/2B 2.0*1219 from Angang Lianzhong in Wuxi is 14,495, with a主力基差率 of -0.50% [3]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybean**: The spot price of domestic first - grade soybean in Harbin is 4,862, with a主力基差率 of -9.26% [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,078, with a主力基差率 of 7.07% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,470, with a主力基差率 of 4.74% [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 9,000, with a主力基差率 of 1.00% [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,440, with a主力基差率 of 6.87% [3]. - **Peanut**: The spot price of Baisha peanuts (45% oil content, 9% water content) in Changtu is 9,200, with a主力基差率 of 13.66% [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,780, with a主力基差率 of 0.99% [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The spot price of national - standard first - grade corn at Qishenquan Port is 2,405, with a主力基差率 of 0.38% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The spot price of corn starch at the factory in Changchun is 2,734, with a主力基差率 of 0.91% [3]. - **Apple**: The spot price of red Fuji apples in Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan is 8,530, with a主力基差率 of 1.87% [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price of eggs in Hebei Cangzhou is 3,861, with a主力基差率 of -0.48% [3]. - **Pig**: The spot price of external ternary pigs in Henan is 13,790, with a主力基差率 of -9.0% [3]. - **Cotton**: The spot price of cotton price index 328 in Xinjiang is 16,848, with a主力基差率 of 8.38% [3]. - **Sugar**: The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou is 5,480, with a主力基差率 of 1.18% [3]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in East China is 2,850, with a主力基差率 of 4.55% [3]. - **Ethanol**: The spot price of ethanol in East China is 4,560, with a主力基差率 of -2.00% [3]. - **PTA**: The spot price of PTA in East China is 6,606, with a主力基差率 of 0.74% [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The spot price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S is 8,950, with a主力基差率 of 2.88% [3]. - **Ethylene Benzene**: The spot price of ethylene benzene in East China is 10,350, with a主力基差率 of 3.46% [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The spot price of Shangfangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm short - fiber is 8,070, with a主力基差率 of 0.52% [3]. - **Plastic**: The spot price of Yuyao Zhejiang Petrochemical 7042 is 8,650, with a主力基差率 of 4.46% [3]. - **PVC**: The spot price of East China SG - 5 Xinjiang Zhongtai mainstream is 5,633, with a主力基差率 of 5.40% [3]. - **Rubber**: The spot price of Thai - produced rubber at Qingdao Bonded Area is 17,685, with a主力基差率 of 1.61% [3]. - **20 - Number Rubber**: The spot price of Thai 20 standard rubber at Qingdao Bonded Area is 14,155, with a主力基差率 of 0.62% [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,363, with a主力基差率 of -1.99% [3]. - **Urea**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Henan is 1,890, with a主力基差率 of -0.80% [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot price of bleached softwood pulp (Silver Star, Chile) is 5,313, with a主力基差率 of 0.25% [3]. - **Crude Oil**: The spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim is 658.7, with a主力基差率 of -7.26% [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The spot price of bonded marine fuel oil 380CST in Zhoushan is 3,879, with a主力基差率 of -3.88% [3]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong is 4,000, with a主力基差率 of 2.67% [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The spot price of 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel oil in Singapore is 4,445, with a主力基差率 of 1195% [3]. - **LPG**: The spot price of LPG in Guangzhou is 6,098, with a主力基差率 of -3.85% [3]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures - **CSI 300**: The spot price is 4,687.6, with a主力基差率 of 0.25% [3]. - **SSE 50**: The spot price is 2,966.4, with a主力基差率 of 0.17% [3]. - **CSI 500**: The spot price is 8,359.5, with a主力基差率 of 0.70% [3].