2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1488手，持仓约7.94万手，最高价13690元/ 吨，最低价13380元/吨，收盘于13640元/吨。 生猪日报 | 2025-05-30 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月29日，生猪注册仓单450手； 3）现下生猪出栏体重虽略有下降，但仍处高位，利空后市，若后面出现集中降 重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | April 2, 2025 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Researcher [5] - Contact: 0371 - 69106756, shixy@hrrdqh.com [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The main contract (LH2505) reduced its positions by 1,969 lots today, with an open interest of approximately 50,000 lots. The highest price was 13,290 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,170 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,240 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December. Based on piglet data, the pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly. The first half of the year is a consumption off - season compared to the second half [3] - From historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may continue to decline [3] - Market bearish logic: The pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 still has room to increase, and there is still pressure on slaughter. The farming side is still increasing the weight of pigs, which is actually negative for future pig prices. Bullish logic: The recent pig prices have been relatively firm, and the futures price is at a large discount, making long - positions cost - effective [3] Group 4: Strategy Suggestion - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - Core logic: Based on piglet data, the pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly, and there is no basis for a sharp increase in pig prices. The current pork consumption has entered an off - season, and demand has weak support for pig prices. Although there may be new lows in the medium - to - long term, due to high uncertainty and relatively firm recent spot prices, it is recommended to wait and see [4] Group 5: Other Information - The second - round fattening is gradually fading out. As of April 1, a total of 0 lots of pig warehouse receipts were registered [5] Group 6: Market Overview | Category | Indicator Name | April 1, 2025 | March 31, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National Pig Slaughter Price (yuan/kg) | National | 14.66 | 14.6 | 0.06 | 0.41% | | | Henan | 14.68 | 14.75 | - 0.07 | - 0.47% | | | Sichuan | 14.46 | 14.45 | 0.01 | 0.07% | | | 01 Contract | 13,845 | 13,910 | - 65 | - 0.47% | | | 03 Contract | 13,060 | 13,035 | 25 | 0.19% | | | 05 Contract | 13,240 | 13,245 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | | 07 Contract | 13,460 | 13,465 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | | 09 Contract | 13,930 | 13,945 | - 15 | - 0.11% | | | 11 Contract | 13,765 | 13,780 | - 15 | - 0.11% | | Main Contract Basis (yuan/ton) | Henan | 1440 | 1505 | - 65 | - 4.32% | [6] Group 7: Key Data Tracking - Data includes national pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume,白条均价, corn national grain depot purchase average price, etc., from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][10][11] - Data sources: Yongyi Consulting, Wind, Rongda Futures [6][7][13]