（天润乳业） 【天风农业】"牛市抱牛"，重视超级牛周期！1、牛板块：肉牛超级周期趋势明确，奶牛去化接近尾声，重视超级 牛周期！1）本周价格：犊牛&淘牛价格持续上涨，育肥牛价格稳定。 截至1月23日，育肥公牛出栏价格25.66元/kg，环比持平，同比+9.47%；犊牛价格33.09元/kg，环比+0.19%，同比 +37.08%；淘牛价格19.93元/kg，环比+0.26%，同比+22.80%（数据来源：钢联）。 （天润乳业） 【天风农业】"牛市抱牛"，重视超级牛周期！1、牛板块：肉牛超级周期趋势明确，奶牛去化接近尾声，重视超级 牛周期！1）本周价格：犊牛&淘牛价格持续上涨，育肥牛价格稳定。 截至1月23日，育肥公牛出栏价格25.66元/kg，环比持平，同比+9.47%；犊牛价格33.09元/kg，环比+0.19%，同比 +37.08%；淘牛价格19.93元/kg，环比+0.26%，同比+22.80%（数据来源：钢联）。 奶价仍处低位调整阶段，截至1月15日，生鲜乳价格3.03元/kg，环比+0.33%、同比-2.57%（数据来源：wind）。 2）肉牛方面，国内长亏损周期叠加深度亏损，驱动能繁母牛深度去化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a price increase of 0.41% as of the report time [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened positively and has been fluctuating in the red, with a current increase of 0.41% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as edible mushrooms, broiler chicken farming, and animal feed, have shown significant gains, with Zhongxing Junye rising over 8%, Xiaoming Co. up over 5%, and Shengnong Development increasing over 3% [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - In September, the total output of listed pig farming companies in China reached 15.2934 million heads, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.11% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.92% [1]. - Western Securities attributes the year-on-year increase in output to the continuous release of new production capacity from last year, while the month-on-month decline is linked to some companies responding to policy guidance by preemptively culling heavier pigs [1]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The current valuation level of the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector remains relatively low, indicating a favorable time for investment [3]. - As of October 24, the market's first agricultural ETF (159275) had a price-to-book ratio of 2.53, which is at the 25.1% percentile of the past decade, highlighting its mid-to-long-term investment value [3]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Zhonghang Securities emphasizes the medium to long-term investment value in the pig farming sector, suggesting that the reduction in production capacity could positively impact the sector [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring changes in the breeding sow inventory and suggests focusing on high-quality pig farming companies with good cash flow and marginal cost changes [4].