农牧渔板块今日（11月24日）开盘大涨。全市场"含猪量"最高的农牧渔ETF（159275）开盘后场内价格 一度涨超2%，截至发稿，涨1.01%。 展望后市，国信证券指出，生猪方面，官方产能调控将加速头部企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红 利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强；禽养殖方面，供给波 动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有望实现更高现金流分红回报；饲 料方面，畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优 势。 一键布局猪周期反转，重点关注全市场"含猪量"最高农牧渔ETF（159275）。根据中证指数公司统计， 农牧渔ETF（159275）被动跟踪中证全指农牧渔指数，权重股包括牧原股份、温氏股份等生猪养殖行业 龙头个股，亦覆盖饲料、粮食种植、动保等农牧渔产业链主要细分行业。场外投资者亦可通过农牧渔 ETF联接基金（A类013471/C类013472）布局农牧渔板块。 图片、数据来源：沪深交易所等，截至2025.11.24。 注：全市场唯一农牧渔ETF（159275）指唯一跟踪中证全指农牧渔指数的ETF。全市 ...

数据来源于沪深交易所、公开资料等。 申万宏源证券指出，2025年白羽肉鸡继续承压，黄羽肉鸡陷入亏损重启产能去化；2026年肉鸡养殖供给 端波动有望收敛，经济复苏或拉动需求改善。生猪养殖2025年周期持续向下，25Q4进入亏损周期，预 计2026H1迎来价格底部。牧业方面，2023-2024年深度亏损驱动肉牛产能去化，但生产周期较长，2025 年前三季度供给仍惯性增长，预计2026年开启供给收缩并延续至2027年。宠物食品行业2025年景气延续 但出口承压，2026年头部企业市占率提升逻辑将延续。 国信证券指出，农林牧渔行业景气度分化：1）肉牛及原奶看好国内牧业大周期反转，海内外景气有望 共振上行；2）生猪行业反内卷有序推进，产能收缩下龙头成本优势凸显；3）禽类供给波动有限，需求 复苏带动行情回暖；4）饲料行业工业化加深，龙头技术优势扩大；5）宠物行业受益人口结构变化持续 成长。 农牧渔ETF（159275）及其联接基金（联接A：013471，联接C：013472）被动跟踪农牧渔指数，该指 数前十大权重股分别为牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团、梅花生物、新希望、大北农、生物股份、圣农 发展、北大荒、隆平高科。 11 ...

东莞证券指出，近期生猪价格回落，头均盈利持续亏损，有望倒逼能繁母猪产能去化，目前存栏仍处高 位，未来仍有较大去化空间。白羽肉鸡价格略有回升，关注养殖龙头盈利边际改善机会。种业方面，农 业农村部提出加快实现种业科技自立自强、种源自主可控。 太平洋证券指出，养殖业面临多重压力：生猪行业持续亏损，产能去化动力增强，能繁母猪存栏较去年 末高点减少37万头，自繁自养头均亏损114元，叠加非瘟疫情风险上升和政策引导减产能，行业去化加 速。白鸡方面，毛鸡价格低位震荡，祖代存栏处历史高位，但预计明年年中供给减少将带动价格反弹； 黄鸡受益消费旺季，产能低位支撑价格高位。动保行业景气回升，抗生素价格保持高位，国产疫苗增长 显著。 11月21日，截至9时54分，农牧渔ETF（159275）逆市上攻，场内价格现涨0.4%，成交额为143万元。 成份股方面，荃银高科20CM涨停，神农种业和中水渔业亦表现强势。另一方面，华英农业、益客食品 和冠农股份表现较弱。 消息面上，2025年11月14日行业数据显示生猪价格回落至11.74元/公斤，养殖利润持续承压，或加速上 游产能去化；同期白羽肉鸡价格回升至7.12元/公斤，养殖龙头盈利边际改善 ...

Group 1 - The Agricultural and Animal Husbandry ETF (159275) showed a stable performance with a 1.5% increase in price and a trading volume of 18.72 million yuan as of November 10 [1] - Key performing stocks included Luoniushan, Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, and Lihua Co., with increases of 5.54%, 5.1%, and 4.49% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement six types of agricultural electronic certificates nationwide starting November 1, 2025, to further standardize industry management processes [1] Group 2 - The livestock sector achieved revenue of 366.406 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.97%, with a net profit of 23.296 billion yuan, up 4.52% year-on-year [1] - The revenue and net profit growth rates have slowed compared to the second quarter, with gross and net profit margins at 12.87% and 6.54%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.16 percentage points and 0.20 percentage points [1] - The cost rate during this period was 6.07%, down 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities indicated that the price of yellow feather chickens may have bottomed out, with expectations for better average prices in the second half of the year due to supply-side adjustments [2] - The white feather chicken supply is expected to tighten significantly in 2025 due to overseas avian influenza restrictions, leading to a substantial reduction in domestic breeding volume [2] - The dairy cow inventory has decreased by 8%, indicating a potential turning point in milk prices [2]

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) has shown a contrary rise, with an increase of 0.6% and a trading volume of 5.25 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 200 million yuan [1] - Key performing stocks include Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, Longniu Mountain, and Hainan Rubber, with respective increases of 6.22%, 4.04%, and 2.56% [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 4, 2025, to establish a full-chain regulatory mechanism for agricultural product quality and safety [1] Group 2 - Pacific Securities highlighted multiple pressures on the breeding industry, including ongoing losses in the pig industry, high levels of breeding sows, and rising risks from African swine fever [2] - The poultry industry is experiencing a historical high in production capacity, with broiler prices fluctuating at low levels, while yellow chicken prices are rising due to seasonal demand [2] - The planting industry is stabilizing grain prices, with expectations for mid-term increases, and the seed industry is gaining strategic importance due to advancements in genetically modified crops [2]

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 0.2% increase in price and a trading volume of 6.91 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 203 million yuan as of November 5 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Shennong Seed Industry had the highest increase at 6.4%, followed by Luoniushan at 5.24%, and Zhongxing Junye at 3.46%. Conversely, Tianma Technology experienced the largest decline at 1.79%, with Meihua Biological and Tianma Technology also showing declines of 1.92% and 1.57% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement six types of agricultural electronic certificates nationwide starting November 1, 2025, including feed import registration certificates and agricultural transgenic biological safety certificates, transitioning to full electronic certification by 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to Tianfeng Securities, the egg-laying chicken industry is expected to see a significant reduction in domestic breeding volume to 41,200 birds by 2025, indicating a shift from surplus to tight supply. The white chicken industry is also experiencing a contraction in production capacity due to three years of bottoming out and overseas breeding disruptions [2] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to undergo capacity reduction due to low prices and policy guidance, while dairy cow inventory has decreased by 8%, nearing the end of the reduction phase. Beef prices may see unexpected increases [2] - The planting sector is accelerating the commercialization of transgenic corn, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies. The aquaculture feed sector is recovering from a downturn, with leading companies increasing their market share [2] Group 3 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, Meihua Biological, New Hope Liuhe, Dabeinong, Bio-Stock, Shennong Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [3]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural and livestock sector demonstrates resilience amid market pullback, with the highest "pig content" ETF (159275) rising 0.4% despite overall market decline [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 4, the agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) is trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, which is at the 30.08% percentile relative to the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [1]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reiterated the need for stronger regulation of pig production capacity, with the number of breeding sows in China decreasing to 40.35 million by the end of September, down 450,000 from the peak last year [1]. - East Asia Securities notes that the industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction, with a cumulative decrease of 90,000 breeding sows reported in Q3, and the ongoing losses in pig farming are expected to accelerate this trend [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) tracks the CSI All Agricultural and Livestock Index, which includes leading companies in pig farming such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as sectors like feed, grain planting, and animal health [2].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector demonstrates resilience amid market corrections, with the highest "pig content" ETF (159275) showing a 0.3% increase despite overall market declines [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 5, the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery ETF (159275) rose by 0.3%, while individual stocks in edible fungi, pig farming, and meat chicken farming saw significant gains, with Zhongxing Junye rising over 2% [1]. - The ETF's underlying index, the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, has a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, placing it in the lower 30.08% of its historical range, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reiterated the need for pig production capacity regulation, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 40.35 million by the end of September, a drop of 450,000 from last year's peak [1]. - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction starting July 2025, with a cumulative decline of 90,000 breeding sows reported in Q3 [2]. - Analysts expect the industry to focus on quality and efficiency improvements, with lower-cost, financially stable producers likely to gain market share as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery ETF (159275) as a strategic entry point into the sector, which includes leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [4]. - The ETF is noted for its high exposure to the pig farming sector, which constitutes 40.25% of its holdings, making it a unique investment vehicle in this space [7].

Group 1 - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) showed weak performance with a price drop of 0.9% and a trading volume of 8.65 million yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 203 million yuan [1] - Notable performers among the constituent stocks include Tianma Technology, Huaying Agriculture, and Shennong Seed Industry, with increases of 4.65%, 3.75%, and 3.73% respectively [1] - Conversely, Muyuan Foods, Zhongxing Junye, and Ruipu Biological exhibited weaker performance, with declines of 2.95%, 2.51%, and 2.48% respectively [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods reported a third-quarter revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.52%, indicating stable performance in pig farming [1] - Wens Foodstuff Group celebrated its 10th anniversary, having supplied 43 million tons of livestock products to the market over the decade, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted multiple pressures on the livestock industry, including ongoing losses in the pig sector, high inventory of breeding sows, and rising risks from African swine fever [1] - The white chicken industry is expected to rebound mid-term due to low prices, while yellow chicken prices are rising due to seasonal demand [1] Group 3 - According to Caitong Securities, pig prices continue to rise as supply decreases, with a 0.20% month-on-month decline in the inventory of breeding sows, indicating potential acceleration in capacity reduction [2] - The poultry industry faces uncertainties due to frequent outbreaks of avian influenza abroad, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry [2] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to recover, driven by new product launches [2] - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) passively tracks the agricultural and livestock index, with top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [2]

Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) rising by 1.21% at the close [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included edible fungi, pig farming, and seeds, with notable gains from companies like Zhongxing Junye and Luoniushan, both hitting the daily limit [1][3] - The recent rebound in pig prices, with an increase of 6.1% from the previous week, has positively impacted the sector [2][3] Group 2 - Short-term pressure on pig sales has eased, with a decrease in the overall output from large enterprises and an increase in secondary fattening [3][4] - The industry is expected to focus on quality improvement and efficiency, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [4][5] - The agricultural ETF (159275) is currently at a relatively low price-to-book ratio of 2.56, indicating a good long-term investment opportunity [3][5] Group 3 - The agricultural ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with a significant concentration in leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5][6] - Investors can also access the agricultural ETF through linked funds for broader exposure to the sector [5]