展望后市，中邮证券指出，"反内卷"多次加码，利好明年猪价。自5月份以来，生猪行业"反内卷"持续 加码，农业部、发改委、行业协会等多方多次召开会议，围绕"控产能、降体重、限二育"精准发力。近 期政策实施成效初显。随着政策执行力度的进一步加大，叠加近期猪价已进入亏损区间，预计四季度行 业产能去化将有所加速，明年下半年猪价有望迎来新一轮上行趋势。 公开资料显示，全市场首只农牧渔ETF（159275）被动跟踪中证全指农牧渔指数，权重股包括牧原股 份、温氏股份、海大集团、新希望、梅花生物等细分行业龙头个股。标的指数持仓行业集中度高，前十 大行业权重超过90%，聚焦于农业养殖、饲料、种植行业等，可一键网罗农牧渔全产业链机遇。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 10月10日，A股多数板块回落，农牧渔板块逆市走强，全市场首只农牧渔ETF（159275）早盘一度上涨 1.5%，现涨0.7%，有望迎来上市四连阳行情。成分股方面，农产品加工、动保、畜牧养殖等板块部分 个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，农牧渔ETF（159275）盘中资金实时净申购超4600万份。 当前，农牧渔板块估值仍处低位，或为板块较好配置时机。截至10月9日收盘，农牧渔ETF ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustment in the pig industry, highlighting the potential for value reassessment due to production capacity control and low-cost performance realization [3][16] - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in fundamentals, with a focus on the white feather chicken breeding segment and price trends [4][29] - The animal health sector is witnessing a competitive landscape improvement and technological innovation, with several new products receiving clinical approval [5][37] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging, indicating sustained profitability improvements in the sector [9][59] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Continuous deepening of pig price control measures is noted, with a focus on maintaining prices within a reasonable range [3][16] - Current average pig price is 13.15 yuan/kg, with a slight weekly decline [15] - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with ongoing recommendations for Juxing Agriculture and Shennong Group [3][16] Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken breeding segment shows potential for improvement, with significant updates in breeding stock [4][29] - Current prices for white feather chicken and related products are stable, with slight fluctuations noted [27][28] Animal Health Industry - The competitive landscape is improving, with notable profit differentiation among leading companies [5][36] - Several new vaccines have received clinical approval, marking significant advancements in the sector [5][37] Planting Industry - Prices for corn and soybean meal have shown a week-on-week decline, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds benefiting early adopters [7][42] Feed Industry - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a noted increase in production volume [8][48] - Recommended companies include Haida Group, with a focus on rising industry concentration [8][49] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a notable increase in consumer spending on pets [9][58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on the growing pet medical segment [9][59]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the establishment and impact of agricultural technology innovation centers, known as "科技小院" (Technology Courtyards), in enhancing agricultural productivity and supporting rural revitalization in Ankang City [1][2][6][7] - The technology courtyards facilitate collaboration between universities and local farmers, providing practical solutions to agricultural challenges and improving crop yields, such as the 5000 pounds per acre yield of konjac reported by a local farmer [1][2] - The integration of technology and talent cultivation is emphasized, with universities like Northwest A&F University and China Pharmaceutical University playing a crucial role in establishing these centers and driving innovation in various agricultural sectors [2][6][7] Group 2 - The ecological aquaculture technology courtyard in Han Yin County has significantly improved fish farming practices, leading to a projected water product output of 8200 tons and an industry chain value of 4.47 billion yuan in 2024 [2][6] - The establishment of the silkworm and mulberry technology courtyard has resulted in hands-on training for local farmers, enhancing their skills and contributing to increased income through improved silkworm farming practices [4][5] - The Qinba Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry Revitalization Technology Courtyard has transformed the local economy by shifting from raw material sales to product development, resulting in a comprehensive industry chain value of 7.5 billion yuan in 2024 [6][7]

从抖音平台上看，本周宠物类目品牌中，麦富迪、卫仕及弗列加特 日均销售额排名前三，中宠股份的领先和顽皮分别位列第 27 和 35 名。此外，本周乖宝宠物的麦富迪微信公众号上新原生鲜肉粮，产 品突出减油卖点；中宠股份的顽皮品牌获得"美团闪购唯一宠物品 牌"最佳增长奖"。总体来看，宠物品牌创新从取悦宠物主越来越向 关注宠物健康方向瞄准，国产品牌创新力整体更强。 种植：秋收在即，关注"秋讯"。 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.14 金秋九月，关注种、养殖业 [Table_Industry] 农业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S08805250 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various agricultural sectors, including pig farming, pet industry, poultry, animal health, feed, planting, plant extraction, and high-end blueberries, highlighting their current trends and future opportunities [4][5]. - Specific events and discussions are scheduled from September 1 to September 11, focusing on different topics each day, indicating a structured approach to analyzing these sectors [4][5]. - The research emphasizes the emergence of new logic and phases in the pig industry, the rise of domestic brands in the pet sector, and the recovery of poultry prices, suggesting a dynamic market environment [4][5]. Group 2 - The article outlines the importance of understanding market conditions, such as grain price trends and product variety changes in the planting sector, which are crucial for investment decisions [5]. - It also points to the growing trend towards natural health products in plant extraction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences that could present investment opportunities [5]. - The discussions on high-end blueberries suggest innovative methodologies that could reshape market strategies, reflecting a focus on quality and differentiation in agricultural products [5].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, with the Asia Pet Expo showcasing over 2,600 exhibitors and 20,000 brands, indicating a thriving market driven by globalization and innovation [2][13] - China's pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 201,000 tons exported from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.64% [14] - The pig farming sector is facing challenges, with the average pig price at 13.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous week, and the average weight of pigs reaching a historical high [15][16] - The dairy sector is poised for a recovery, with the original milk price expected to rebound as production capacity decreases after a prolonged period of losses [17][18] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps, with a significant decline in the import of breeding chickens due to avian influenza concerns, which may impact future supply [19][20] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biotechnology, with a focus on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market recovery and increased market share [26] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The Asia Pet Expo has reached a record scale of 310,000 square meters, highlighting the industry's vitality and innovation potential [2][13] - Pet food exports from China have increased, with a total of 201,000 tons exported in the first seven months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.64% [14] - Recommended companies include pet food brands like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [14] Pig Sector - The average pig price is currently at 13.82 yuan/kg, with a year-to-date low in profitability for pig farming [15][16] - The average weight of pigs is at a historical high, indicating supply pressures [15] - Recommended companies include leading pig farming firms such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods [16] Dairy Sector - Yuran Dairy reported stable performance with a revenue of 10.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [17] - The dairy industry is expected to see a recovery as production capacity decreases [18] - Recommended companies include Yuran Dairy and China Shengmu Organic Milk [18] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports, particularly for white chickens, due to avian influenza [19][20] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [20] Planting Sector - The focus is on food security and biotechnology, with an emphasis on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong Technology Group [25] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and performance [26] - The animal health sector is also recommended, particularly companies like Kexin Biological [27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5][63]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the pig farming sector, the potential for valuation reassessment, and the strong growth in the pet economy, particularly for domestic brands [5][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The average price of pigs as of August 14, 2025, is 13.74 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.28 CNY/kg. The price of 15 kg piglets is 484 CNY/head, down 33 CNY/head from the previous week [12]. - The report suggests that the swine industry is moving towards a self-regulatory and stabilizing phase, with top companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture being recommended for investment [12][5]. 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a decline in poultry prices, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.60 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Lihua Shares [21][22]. 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery, with companies like Huayuan Biological, Reap Biological, and Placo showing improved performance. The approval of mRNA vaccines for veterinary use is seen as a significant technological advancement [33][5]. 4. Planting Industry - The report indicates an increase in soybean meal prices, with the average price reaching 3092 CNY/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week. Companies involved in transgenic seed commercialization are recommended for investment [38][42]. 5. Feed Industry - Feed prices are fluctuating, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 CNY/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month. The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending companies like Haida Group [44][46]. 6. Pet Industry - The pet economy is booming, with the market size for pet consumption in urban areas projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 7.5%. Companies like Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares are recommended for investment [53][54].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **agriculture industry**, focusing on **animal protein sectors** such as **pig farming**, **dairy farming**, and **beef cattle farming** [1][2][34]. Core Insights and Arguments Pig Farming - The **pig farming cycle** is driven by production capacity, with the number of breeding sows being a critical leading indicator. This needs to be cross-verified with data on sow feed sales [1][2]. - The **African swine fever** has normalized, raising the industry's cost base, which affects the peak and elasticity of the cycle [1][4]. - **Scale farming** may extend the pig cycle and amplify price fluctuations. Secondary fattening increases price disturbances, influenced by short-term price expectations [1][5]. - The **反内卷 (anti-involution) policy** aims to reduce the number of breeding sows and lower slaughter weights to support pig prices [1][11]. - The average price of pigs is expected to rise to over **16 RMB per kilogram** by **2026**, with **牧原股份 (Muyuan Food)** potentially achieving a profit of nearly **500 RMB per head** [1][14]. Dairy Farming - The dairy industry faces challenges due to falling milk prices, currently around **3 RMB per kilogram**, down from **4.5 RMB**. However, there is potential for demand improvement due to increased willingness to have children and government subsidies for newborns [1][17]. - The beef cattle sector has a long growth cycle and is heavily reliant on imports, with significant industry clearing observed [1][18][20]. Market Dynamics - The **white chicken farming** sector is significantly impacted by overseas breeding policies, with potential for market share growth for **圣农 (Sannong)** during periods of import disruption [3][25]. - The **seafood feed** segment is expected to improve due to rising prices of common aquatic products, with **海大集团 (Haida Group)** showing strong performance in this area [3][27]. Other Important Insights - The **agricultural new consumption trends** include rapid growth in pet food and pet healthcare sectors, indicating new growth potential beyond traditional areas [6][34]. - The **agricultural input products** like feed and veterinary products serve as lagging indicators in the animal protein supply chain, aiding in capacity data assessment [7][34]. - The **grain security** theme is increasingly important, with policies and market dynamics needing close attention [8][30]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on core assets like **牧原 (Muyuan)** and **温氏 (Wens Food)**, which have strong cost control and are less affected by the anti-involution policy [12][13]. - The **港股 (Hong Kong stock market)** upstream livestock companies are currently in a challenging phase but are expected to improve by **2026** as the new cycle begins [22]. - **海大集团 (Haida Group)** is recommended for its strong market position and growth potential in both domestic and international markets [27]. Future Trends - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy, leading to a new upward price cycle in **2026** [15][34]. - The **meat cattle industry** is facing significant challenges, including price declines and industry losses, with a low degree of scale [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the agriculture industry, particularly in the animal protein sectors.

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing a halt in the growth of breeding sows, indicating a significant expectation gap in the market. The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, while the price of piglets has reached a new low this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the seasonal demand is weak, suggesting a potential seasonal decline in pig prices [1][2][11] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its capacity reduction phase, with expectations for a rebound in raw milk prices. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can withstand the current downturn showing strong profit potential [3][13][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating robust growth in the pet economy. Key recommendations include companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [15][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white and egg-laying chickens, with expectations for price improvements driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is also showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints and improving demand [4][17][19] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, with self-breeding profits around 130 CNY per head. The price of piglets has hit a new low, and the average weight of pigs at market is high, indicating supply pressure [1][11] - The breeding sow numbers have decreased, with some institutions reporting a halt in growth. The market is expected to see capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [2][12] Dairy and Beef Sector - The raw milk price is expected to rebound as the dairy industry approaches the end of its capacity reduction phase. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can adapt showing strong profit potential [3][14] Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands growing rapidly. Pet food exports are also on the rise, with significant sales growth reported [15][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken and egg-laying chicken markets are focusing on breeding gaps, with expectations for price increases driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints [4][17][19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through self-sufficiency and enhancing breeding strategies. The government is promoting agricultural technology innovation to support this goal [5][21][22] Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, such as Haida Group. The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition with innovative products [6][23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a long-term revaluation opportunity for the pig industry, indicating that while pig prices are experiencing fluctuations, there is still downward pressure. The industry is expected to transition towards a self-regulatory and stable phase, benefiting leading companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][14]. - The poultry sector is currently facing low prices, but there are signs of marginal improvement in the cycle, with recommendations for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [5][24]. - The animal health sector is anticipated to see performance recovery and investment opportunities in pet medical services, with a focus on companies like Kexin Biological and Ruipuhua [6][34]. - The planting sector is experiencing a decline in the pig-to-grain price ratio, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds benefiting early adopters [7][37]. - The feed sector is witnessing price fluctuations, with recommendations for Haida Group and attention to He Feng Stock [7][42]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength, and the report recommends companies in the pet food sector such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock [7][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - The average price of pigs is currently around 14.08 yuan/kg, with fluctuations noted [14]. - The number of breeding sows has increased slightly, indicating a stable supply [14]. - Key recommendations include Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture, with a suggestion to pay attention to Dekang Agriculture [4][14]. Poultry Industry - The price of white feather chicken is low, with a focus on potential marginal improvements in the cycle [5][23]. - The report notes a significant update in the breeding stock, with a mix of imported and self-bred varieties [5][24]. - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [5][24]. Animal Health - The report anticipates continued recovery in animal health companies' performance, supported by stable profits in the pig farming sector [6][34]. - The approval of mRNA vaccines for veterinary use marks a significant technological advancement [6][34]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipuhua, with additional attention to Huisheng Biological and Jinhai Biological [6][34]. Planting Sector - The pig-to-grain price ratio has decreased, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds [7][37]. - Recommendations include Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [7][37]. Feed Sector - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with specific prices noted for different types of feed [7][42]. - The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending Haida Group and monitoring He Feng Stock [7][42]. Pet Industry - The pet market is growing, with a significant increase in consumption and brand development [7][51]. - Recommendations include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Stock, and Peidi Stock in the pet food sector, as well as Ruipuhua in the pet medical sector [7][51].