猪鸡价格冰火两重天，玉米景气继续提升 [Table_Industry] 农业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：猪鸡价格年后冰火两重天。种植：看好种植景气度提升。宠物: 汇率因素影响 短期出口表现，看好国内市场增长。 投资要点： [关注原油价格波动对油脂的影响。 Table_Summary] 投资建议：生猪推荐标的：牧原股份、温氏股份；后周期推荐标的：科前生 物、海大集团。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物、诺普信、国投丰乐，相 关标的：康农种业、苏垦农发、北大荒。宠物推荐标的：乖宝宠物、中宠股 份、瑞普生物、佩 ...

李若熙 17611619787，lirx@avicsec.com 行情回顾 （2.07-2.21） 申万农林牧渔行业（-2.10%），申万行业排名（28/31）； 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：中航证券研究） 如您需要报告全文，可联系研究所销售团队： 陈艺丹 18611188969，chenyd@avicsec.com 李裕淇 18674857775，liyuq@avicsec.com 李友琳 18665808487，liyoul@avicsec.com 交易上，关注产能去化趋势中的板块机会。一是生猪周期轮转不止，配合"反内卷"政策引导，产能有望合理调减，猪价预期和生猪板块走势有望演绎。二 是生猪行业优势企业价值属性增强。长期稳态下生猪养殖产业整体将保持一定的利润水平，而行业具备养殖管理和成本优势的企业望保持较好盈利能力。 行业前期产能扩张的财务压力释放，产业优质企业的自由现金流大幅改善，支撑相关生猪企业估值。三是生猪行业优势企业红利属性增强。优质养殖企业 重视并不断提升股东回报，生猪板块优质标的的长期红利属性和配置价值有望愈加显著。四是生猪头部企业推进全球 ...

新春时节，浙西南群山叠翠，草木萌动。沿着蜿蜒山路一路前行，经济日报记者走进全国唯一的畲族自 治县——浙江省丽水市景宁畲族自治县。 习近平总书记在浙江工作时，曾将景宁作为基层工作联系点，到中央工作后多次对景宁发展作出重要指 示批示。2024年6月25日，习近平总书记在给景宁各族干部群众的回信中强调，新征程上，希望全县各 族干部群众认真贯彻党中央决策部署，继续弘扬优良传统，增进民族团结，发挥独特优势，积极推进民 族地区高质量发展和共同富裕，在中国式现代化进程中谱写畲乡景宁发展新篇章。 殷殷嘱托，言犹在耳；深情牵挂，催人奋进。曾经，大山是阻隔，村民世代在石缝间谋生计；如今，大 山成优势，畲乡大地处处涌动着发展热潮。 匠心筑共富 这家共富工坊通过整合土地、人力等资源，构建起生产、包装、销售一体化的全链条运营模式，让东坑 咸菜产品单价从每斤38元提高至64元，年均为村集体经济增收超12万元。 在景宁，这样的共富工坊还有很多。深垟村因特色石砌民居被称为"石头村"，如今小小的多肉遍布村寨 角落。雅景多肉共富工坊主理人吴勇介绍，工坊由雅景多肉基地与村党总支结对共建，从农户"单打独 斗"变为抱团发展。工坊推行免费供苗、田间指导 ...

"今天可是咱们村最热闹的一天！"村民张学仁脸上洋溢着笑容。和他一样，许多村民早早来到广场，期 待这场属于他们自己的"村晚"。 活动在激昂的舞蹈《中国龙》中拉开序幕。紧接着，现场迎来第一个高潮——"道德银行"积分兑换颁奖 环节。黄海堂、祁志源、包福平等23户全乡积分最高的"年度家庭"依次上台接过荣誉证书和奖品，成为 现场最受瞩目的文明之星。 "平时打扫村道、帮助邻居都能攒分，没想到年底真能换到东西！"黄海堂朴实的话语，道出了"道德银 行"的温暖与力量。 元古堆村的"小年" 新定西·定西日报记者 何 强 张莉芳 李胤婷 腊月二十三，农历小年。渭源县田家河乡元古堆村新时代文明实践广场上，锣鼓喧天，笑语盈盈。全村 老少齐聚一堂，共同参与一场别开生面的"道德银行"积分兑换暨"我们的节日·春节"文艺汇演。 舞蹈《如愿》《欢天喜地庆丰收》舞出振兴喜悦，小品《穷人与富人》、戏曲《王桂花防线》则将传统 文化与当代价值生动融合，寓教于乐，引来掌声阵阵。 广场一侧，同样暖意融融。县乡医疗队伍开展义诊，为群众送上健康关怀；政策宣传台前，森林防火、 禁毒反诈、惠农政策等讲解细致深入，受到乡亲欢迎。 这场文艺飘香的背后，是元古堆村蒸蒸日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly benefiting Hong Kong dairy farming stocks [1]. - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments: Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Lihua Co., among others [1][3]. - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, driven by a recovery in the livestock cycle and improved cash flow for leading companies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with recommendations for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming as key beneficiaries [1][14]. - The report notes that domestic beef production capacity is decreasing, which may lead to price increases through 2028 [14]. - The improvement in raw milk prices is anticipated to benefit dairy farming companies, with a projected profit increase for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [17]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, with leading companies like Huazhong, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods recommended for investment [1][14]. - The report indicates that the industry is moving towards a more stable price center, supported by a reduction in production capacity and improved cash flow for leading firms [15][20]. Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with recommendations for Lihua Co. and Shengnong Development [1][18]. - The report notes that the supply of white feather chickens is increasing, but demand is expected to improve, leading to potential price recovery [22][24]. Pet Sector - The pet food market is identified as a growing segment, with a focus on domestic brands like Guibao Pet [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the pet sector, driven by rising consumer sentiment and market expansion [16]. Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies like Haida Group recommended [1][18]. - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong support level for future price recovery [18].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal in the industry [1][12] - The recommended stocks include leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pork, poultry, and pet food, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, benefiting companies like Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [14][17] - The domestic beef market is anticipated to improve due to reduced production capacity and favorable pricing dynamics, with beef prices currently at 61.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.59% [29] - The report highlights the potential for significant earnings recovery for dairy farming companies as milk prices are expected to rebound, driven by improved market conditions [14][17] Pork Sector - The pork sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with January 2026 pork prices at 12.16 yuan/kg, down 4% month-on-month, while piglet prices have surged by 57.86% [20][21] - Leading companies in the pork industry, such as Muyuan Foods and Huazhong Holdings, are expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend returns as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The report notes that the industry is undergoing a rationalization process, with a focus on reducing production capacity and enhancing profitability for leading firms [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with broiler prices showing a month-on-month increase of 2.94% to 7.70 yuan/kg, indicating a potential recovery in demand [22][23] - The report suggests that the white-feathered chicken industry is poised for price recovery as domestic demand stabilizes, supported by seasonal consumption trends [22][24] - The overall outlook for poultry remains positive, with expectations of improved profitability driven by demand recovery and supply adjustments [22][24] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, with domestic brands gaining market share and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [16][18] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading pet food companies, which are focusing on product upgrades and direct sales strategies to capture market opportunities [16][18] - The pet food export volume has increased by 12.99% month-on-month, indicating robust demand in international markets [16][18] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to benefit from the deepening industrialization of livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for livestock producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, indicating that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have shown a slight increase to 2333 yuan/ton [2][21] - The overall agricultural market is characterized by a focus on supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of tightening supply for key commodities like soybeans and corn [20][21]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal benefiting Hong Kong-listed dairy farming companies [1][12] - The investment strategy highlights a recommended monthly portfolio including leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pig farming, and pet food [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production and a historical low in milk prices [14][29] - Key recommendations include Yuran Dairy and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][17] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with a notable increase in piglet prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for leading companies [20][21] - Recommended companies in this sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Huazhong Holdings, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and dividend returns [3][15] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing a slight increase in supply, with expectations of demand recovery supporting price stability, particularly for broiler chickens [22][24] - Leading companies such as Lihua Agricultural and Shengnong Development are highlighted for their competitive advantages in cost management and market positioning [18][19] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands [16][18] - Companies like Guibao Pet Food are recommended for their strong growth potential in this segment [3][16] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to deepen its industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in pork, chicken, and feed prices, with implications for overall market dynamics [2][21] - The analysis indicates that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices are stabilizing, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance in the medium term [20][21]

报告摘要 一、市场回顾 本周农业指数上涨，其中种植指数领涨。1.本周，申万农业指数上涨了1.82%，同期，上证综指下跌 0.44%，深成指下跌1.61%，农业板块表现强于大市；2.细分到二级子行业，所有二级子行业悉数上涨， 其中，种植和饲料上涨了9.44%和1.76%，涨幅领先；3.前10大涨幅个股主要集中在种植板块，前10 大 跌幅个股集中在养殖板块。涨幅前3 名个股依次为农发种业、神农种业和敦煌种业。 二、核心观点 1、养殖产业链 展望2026 年，商品代鸡苗和毛鸡供给较为宽松，鸡价中期或继续震荡。 估值方面，个股羽均市值处于历史低位，投资安全边际高，建议关注。中期来看，产业链盈利有望向上 游倾斜，重点关注鸡苗公司。 3）黄鸡：行业产能处于历史较低水平，鸡价中期或上涨近期鸡价持续震荡：2025 年12 月，温氏黄鸡售 价12.95 元/公斤，较上月跌0.27 元；立华黄鸡售价12.16 元/公斤，较上月跌0.02元；鸡价近期在成本线 上方运行，养殖业盈利较为稳定。 行业产能处于历史较低水平：数据显示，2025 年12 月末，全国父母代种鸡在产存栏水平为3611 万套， 环比下降1.7%，同比下降0.84% ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 多家种企业绩回升，看好种植景气回升 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：业绩预告公告完毕，四季度生猪养殖普遍亏损。种植：种子公司业绩回升， 看好种植板块景气上行。宠物: 乖宝品牌抖音销售排名靠前，看好年后展会催化。 投资要点： [种植： Table_Summary] 多家种子公司业绩回升，看好种植板块景气上行。 多家种子公司发布业绩预告，登海种业归母净利润拟增长 62%-80%， 隆平高科拟增长 14%-67%，大北农的种子业务也实现净利润增长， 荃银 ...

农业板块迎来行情催化，农发种业开盘10分钟内封死涨停，相关种业个股同步异动，板块整体表现活 跃。此次行情发酵源于两方面因素，一是农产品涨价预期逐步升温，生猪、大豆等品种价格出现波动上 行迹象；二是年度相关政策进入预热阶段，市场对产业支持政策落地抱有期待。 养殖产业链：涵盖生猪、白鸡、黄鸡等细分领域，生猪产业当前处于产能缓慢去化阶段，能繁母猪存栏 仍略高于正常保有量，冬季非洲猪瘟疫情防控压力上升，行业盈利随猪价短期反弹有所修复；白鸡祖代 引种量维持高位，商品代供给宽松，养殖环节保持微利；黄鸡产能处于历史低位，供给偏紧叠加消费旺 季需求支撑，养殖盈利保持稳定，立华股份、温氏股份等企业凭借成本优势占据市场份额。 本文源自：市场资讯 种植产业链：种业领域政策持续优化，转基因技术产业化稳步推进，优质种子产品迭代升级带动行业结 构调整；粮价受国际市场美联储降息、库消比下降及国内最低收购价政策支撑呈现上涨趋势，玉米、小 麦收购价格震荡上行，种植企业收益随粮价波动调整，苏垦农发等种植主体凭借规模化种植优势，收益 稳定性较强，中长期配置价值凸显。 作者：观察君 动保产业链：兽用化药领域，泰妙菌素、泰万菌素等产品价格处于高位震荡 ...