证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 牧原股份（002714.SZ） 优于大市 2025 年三季报点评:养殖成本逐步下降，国际化战略稳步推进 2025Q3 养殖成本稳步下降，单头盈利保持行业领先。公司 2025Q1-Q3 营收同 比+15.52%至 1117.9 亿元,归母净利同比+41.01%至 147.79 亿元；2025Q3 营 收同比-11.48%至 353.27 亿元,归母净利同比-55.98%至 42.49 亿元，主要系 2025Q3 猪价同比明显下降。公司 2025Q3 合计销售商品猪 1892.9 万头，仔猪 328.0 万头，经测算，公司 2025Q3 商品猪销售均价约 13.6 元/kg，对应单头 商品猪盈利接近 230-240 元（剔除非经常损益影响后），处于行业领先水平。 据公司公告，2025 年以来各项生产指标持续改善，生猪养殖完全成本逐月下 降，2025 年 7 月已降至约 11.8 元/kg，同时全程成活率达 87%，断奶到上市 的成活率达 92%，肥猪日增重约 860 克，育肥阶段料肉比约 2.7。 资产负债表稳步修复，现金流创造能力表现稳健。伴随盈利能力提升与资 本开支下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in profitability, with a 1169.77% year-on-year increase in net profit to 10.53 billion yuan in H1 2025, alongside a 34.46% increase in revenue to 76.463 billion yuan [1][9] - The company is on track to achieve its cost reduction target of 12 yuan/kg for pig farming, with the cost having decreased to approximately 11.8 yuan/kg by July 2025 [1] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, having established a subsidiary in Vietnam and applied for an overseas listing in Hong Kong [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company sold 46.91 million pigs, including 38.394 million commercial pigs, marking a significant year-on-year increase [1][9] - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 increased by 12.1% year-on-year to 17.351 billion yuan, representing 22.69% of total revenue, indicating improved cash flow generation capabilities [2][21] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 6.112 billion yuan for the mid-year, which accounts for 58.04% of net profit [2] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 19.509 billion yuan, 16.436 billion yuan, and 16.211 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.57 yuan, 3.01 yuan, and 2.97 yuan [3][23] - The company's PE ratios are expected to be 11, 13, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][23] - The company's debt ratio decreased by 5.75 percentage points year-on-year to 56.06% by the end of H1 2025 [2]