甲酸价格上涨

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德邦证券:供应收缩叠加出口激增 甲酸价格快速上行
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 03:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the formic acid market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, driven by a temporary contraction in supply and strong export demand, leading to a significant increase in prices [1][2] - As of August 6, the price of formic acid reached 3550 RMB/ton, marking a daily increase of 300 RMB/ton (+9.23%), a weekly increase of 35.50%, and a monthly increase of 54.35% [1] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) and Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) due to the favorable market conditions [1] Group 2 - The supply side is experiencing a temporary reduction due to operational issues at major producers, with domestic formic acid production capacity primarily dominated by Chinese companies, accounting for approximately 53% of the global capacity [1][2] - Domestic formic acid production was reported at 10,520 tons with an operating rate of 72.9%, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 9.0% in production and 8.9 percentage points in operating rate [1] - The internal demand for formic acid is weak due to a slow economic recovery, with a projected 5.0% year-on-year decline in total consumption for the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3 - The rapid depletion of factory inventories, driven by strong external demand, has resulted in a significant reduction in formic acid stock levels, which are now at 2,900 tons, a decrease of 43.1% week-on-week [3] - The current inventory levels are at a near three-year low, which may provide strong support for continued price increases in the formic acid market [3]
供应缩量、外需强劲,甲酸价格快速上行
Tebon Securities· 2025-08-07 02:32
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The formic acid price has rapidly increased due to supply reduction and strong external demand, with a current price of 3,550 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 300 CNY/ton (+9.23%), a weekly increase of 35.50%, and a monthly increase of 54.35% [6][8]. - The supply side is experiencing a temporary reduction due to issues with major producers, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance in the domestic formic acid market [8]. - Domestic consumption of formic acid is weak, with a total consumption of approximately 136,000 tons in the first half of 2025, down 5.0% year-on-year, while external demand remains strong, particularly in export markets [8]. - Factory inventories of formic acid are rapidly depleting, with a current inventory of 2,900 tons, down 43.1% week-on-week, indicating potential for continued price increases [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market performance of the basic chemical industry has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of 15% in certain periods [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global formic acid production capacity is projected to be 1.42 million tons per year in 2024, with China accounting for approximately 53% of this capacity [8]. - Domestic formic acid production is currently facing challenges, with an operating rate of 72.9% and a production volume of 10,520 tons, both showing declines [8]. Price Trends - The rapid increase in formic acid prices is supported by strong external demand and a reduction in supply, suggesting a bullish outlook for future pricing [6][8]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng as potential investment opportunities in the formic acid sector [8].