证券研究报告 | 2025年08月22日 鲁西化工（000830.SZ） 优于大市 短期盈利承压，营收稳增显韧性 公司 2025 年上半年营收同比增长，归母净利同比下滑。2025 年上半年公司 实现营收 147.4 亿元（同比+5.0%），归母净利润 7.6 亿元（同比-34.8%）； 其中二季度营收 74.5 亿元（同比+2.2%，环比+2.2%），归母净利润 3.5 亿 元（同比-41.9%，环比-15.1%）；毛利率/净利率为 13.2%/4.7%，期间费用 率 5.8%。利润下滑主要因化工新材料板块受原料价格波动及下游需求疲软影 响，叠加部分产品竞争加剧致盈利空间压缩。 核心业务化工新材料营收同比增长，毛利率下滑。公司化工新材料业务 2025 年上半年营收 97.4 亿元（占比 66.1%，同比+2.4%），毛利率 11.4%（同比 -9.8pct）。多元醇仍为公司利润核心来源，上半年公司销售多元醇/六氟丙 烯 等 氟 材 料 / 己 内 酰 胺 / 聚 碳 酸 酯 的 全 资 子 公 司 净 利 润 分 别 为 2.36/0.63/-1.69/-1.38 亿元。2025 年上半年，聚碳酸酯、尼龙 6 ...

民生证券近日发布化工行业周报：根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的出口指导具体情况如 下：1、2025年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在5-9月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态 调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。3、2025年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当 前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持 企业盈利水平。 以下为研究报告摘要： 化工周观点： 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。建议开始寻找二季度景气度好，业绩有望超预期的标 的，建议关注圣泉集团、海利得、卓越新能和瑞联新材。首先是与宏观经济波动相关性较 弱，受益AI资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集团是AI服务器中核心电子树脂的主要 国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续放量，公司业绩有望环比提升。其次是海外有工 厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分行业龙头，建议关注涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。并建议 关注公司自身产能增长，随着新项目新产品投产，业绩有望上一个台阶的卓越新能。此外， 瑞联新材已发布2025年半年度业绩预增公告，得益于医药板块收入同比大幅增长、产品结构 优化，预计2025年上半年归母净利润将同比增长69.93%。 磷肥 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on chemical products with significant market potential [4][5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector experienced a 2.33% increase in the first week of August, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.22 percentage points [12]. - The top five performing stocks in the sector included Anli Co. (+51.6%) and *ST Jintai (+19.18%) [12]. - The report highlights the significant price increase of formic acid (+28.62%) and other chemicals, indicating strong market dynamics [3][21]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry had 29 sub-industries rising and 3 declining in the first week of August, with potassium fertilizer leading the gains at +11.61% [2][17]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 27.11 times, slightly below the average PE since 2015 [12]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases, including formic acid (+28.62%) and dichloromethane (+17.5%) [3][21]. - The price spread for PX (naphtha-based) saw a significant increase of +36.66%, while PTA spread decreased by -52.14% [39][42]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include an increase in polyester filament (+14.71%) and epoxy propane (+12.92%) [60][62]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance, such as Xinyangfeng and Guangxin Materials, which are expected to benefit from ongoing market trends [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a positive performance in the PEEK sector, with key companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng being recommended for investment. The focus is also on pesticide anti-involution strategies, particularly with Limin Co. [5][6] - The basic chemical sector has shown a weekly increase of 2.33%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.1 percentage points [6][18] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is at 3814.15, with a 52-week high of 3814.15 and a low of 2687.54 [2] - Year-to-date performance shows the basic chemical index has decreased by 10.38%, while the CSI 300 index has increased by 21.22%, indicating a lag of 10.84 percentage points [18] Weekly Performance - The report notes significant stock price fluctuations, with notable increases in companies like Kexin New Energy (53.05%), Anli Co. (51.60%), and Xinhang New Materials (45.88%) [7][19] - Conversely, companies such as Lianhua Technology (-10.41%) and Cangzhou Dahua (-8.80%) experienced declines [8][21] Commodity Price Movements - Key commodities that saw price increases include formic acid (28.62%), broiler chicks (21.93%), and dichloromethane (17.50%) [9][24] - Notable price decreases were observed in commodities like sucralose (-28.00%) and eggs (-8.48%) [27][28] Key Company Ratings and Forecasts - Wanhua Chemical is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 60.8 CNY and a market cap of 190.33 billion CNY [11] - Yangnong Chemical is also rated "Buy" with a closing price of 64.7 CNY and a market cap of 26.23 billion CNY [11] - Other companies such as Hualu Hengsheng and Sailun Tire are similarly rated "Buy" with respective closing prices of 23.8 CNY and 13.1 CNY [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "One Certificate, One Product" policy for pesticides is expected to optimize the domestic formulation landscape in the medium to long term, addressing the issue of "one certificate, multiple products" that has led to chaotic competition in the market [8][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a significant guiding policy for the manufacturing sector, aiming to eliminate unfair competition and establish a stable foundation for long-term industry growth [8][14] Summary by Sections Pesticide Formulation - The report highlights the competitive advantages of leading companies in the domestic pesticide formulation sector, recommending stocks such as Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Hailier (603639, Buy), and Nuo Puxin (002215, Not Rated) [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive structural opportunities for pesticide exports, with a focus on improving industry fundamentals [7] Market Trends - As of August 8, Brent crude oil prices decreased by 4.42% to $66.59 per barrel, influenced by increased supply from OPEC+ [10] - The price of formic acid surged by 28.6%, driven by tight market supply and strong demand, particularly in export markets [11][12] Price Movements - The report notes significant price increases for formic acid, liquid chlorine, and international urea, while crude oil and WTI prices saw notable declines [11][15] - PTA price spread increased by 224.7%, attributed to a decrease in PX prices due to falling international oil prices [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the formic acid market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, driven by a temporary contraction in supply and strong export demand, leading to a significant increase in prices [1][2] - As of August 6, the price of formic acid reached 3550 RMB/ton, marking a daily increase of 300 RMB/ton (+9.23%), a weekly increase of 35.50%, and a monthly increase of 54.35% [1] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) and Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) due to the favorable market conditions [1] Group 2 - The supply side is experiencing a temporary reduction due to operational issues at major producers, with domestic formic acid production capacity primarily dominated by Chinese companies, accounting for approximately 53% of the global capacity [1][2] - Domestic formic acid production was reported at 10,520 tons with an operating rate of 72.9%, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 9.0% in production and 8.9 percentage points in operating rate [1] - The internal demand for formic acid is weak due to a slow economic recovery, with a projected 5.0% year-on-year decline in total consumption for the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3 - The rapid depletion of factory inventories, driven by strong external demand, has resulted in a significant reduction in formic acid stock levels, which are now at 2,900 tons, a decrease of 43.1% week-on-week [3] - The current inventory levels are at a near three-year low, which may provide strong support for continued price increases in the formic acid market [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The formic acid price has rapidly increased due to supply reduction and strong external demand, with a current price of 3,550 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 300 CNY/ton (+9.23%), a weekly increase of 35.50%, and a monthly increase of 54.35% [6][8]. - The supply side is experiencing a temporary reduction due to issues with major producers, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance in the domestic formic acid market [8]. - Domestic consumption of formic acid is weak, with a total consumption of approximately 136,000 tons in the first half of 2025, down 5.0% year-on-year, while external demand remains strong, particularly in export markets [8]. - Factory inventories of formic acid are rapidly depleting, with a current inventory of 2,900 tons, down 43.1% week-on-week, indicating potential for continued price increases [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market performance of the basic chemical industry has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of 15% in certain periods [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global formic acid production capacity is projected to be 1.42 million tons per year in 2024, with China accounting for approximately 53% of this capacity [8]. - Domestic formic acid production is currently facing challenges, with an operating rate of 72.9% and a production volume of 10,520 tons, both showing declines [8]. Price Trends - The rapid increase in formic acid prices is supported by strong external demand and a reduction in supply, suggesting a bullish outlook for future pricing [6][8]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng as potential investment opportunities in the formic acid sector [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that formic acid prices have surged by 24% week-on-week, exceeding 3100 yuan/ton, driven by strong external demand, benefiting leading global producers like Luxi Chemical and Hualu Chemical, with new capacity set to come online soon [1] - The CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) has seen a 0.52% increase, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812) up 4.23%, Guangdong Hongda (002683) up 2.64%, and Luxi Chemical (000830) up 1.82% [1] - According to GF Securities, the chemical industry is expected to experience multiple marginal catalysts in the second half of the year, with an upward turning point in the cycle, although sub-industries will continue to show differentiation [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) account for 43.54% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical (600309), Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792), and Luxi Chemical (600426) [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which is composed of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the formic acid price has surged by 24% weekly, exceeding 3100 yuan/ton, driven by strong external demand, benefiting companies like Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng with new capacity coming online [1] - The chemical sector is experiencing increased capital inflow, with the chemical ETF (159870) seeing a net subscription of 10 million units, marking 12 consecutive days of net subscriptions [1] - As of August 5, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) has risen by 0.33%, with notable increases in stocks such as Guangwei Composites (300699) up 2.32% and Luxi Chemical (000830) up 1.82% [1] Group 2 - Recent policies from various departments and local governments regarding capacity governance and assessment of outdated facilities are expected to drive supply-side reforms in the domestic chemical industry, benefiting leading companies in various sub-sectors [2] - The current capacity utilization rate and gross profit margin in the chemical industry are at historical lows, with the capacity utilization rate at 71.9% and gross profit margin at 12.95% as of Q2 2025 [2] - The peak of new capacity additions in the chemical industry is gradually passing, which may lead to a reduction in overall capital expenditure and an increase in industry prosperity [2] Group 3 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical (600309), Yilong Co. (000792), and Juhua Co. (600160), collectively accounting for 43.54% of the index [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's role as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry index closed at 3727.14 points, down 1.46% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.29% [10]. - Key chemical products such as TDI, epoxy chloropropane, lithium hydroxide, formic acid, and phosphoric acid saw significant price increases [21]. Key Sub-Industry Tracking - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: The report indicates a peak export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to alleviate domestic overcapacity and maintain profitability for large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - **Pesticides**: Following a chemical safety incident, the report anticipates a nationwide safety inspection that may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities, potentially boosting the pesticide industry's outlook [3]. - **Polyester Filament**: The report notes a slight increase in polyester filament prices, driven by rising production costs and a modest uptick in demand, although overall market conditions remain weak [24][25]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.03 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 31, while Hailide's EPS is expected to be 0.35 with a PE of 16. Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to achieve an EPS of 1.24 with a PE of 35 [4].