甲醇供需矛盾
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短期供需压力难解,关注预期变动
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:59
短期供需压力难解,关注预期变动 风险提示:伊朗限气预期变动。 [甲ta醇ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 11 月 18 日 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师:范智颖 从业资格号:F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0022690 研究所 Tel:010-82292099 Email:fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《甲醇周报20240719:重回起点之后?》 《甲醇周报 20240816:短期震荡寻底, 但不必过度悲观》 《甲醇周报 20240913:抢跑宏观预期反 弹,等待回踩确认底部》 《甲醇周报20241108:短期有回调压力》 《甲醇周报 20241122:利多或已逐步兑 现》 《甲醇周报 20241206:关注回调后的试 多机会》 《甲醇周报 20250317:甲醇估值已不再 便宜》 《甲醇周报 20250402:利多难寻》 《甲醇周报 20250514:等待反弹后的沽 空机会》 《甲醇周报 20250526:向上动力不足, 偏弱震荡为主》 《甲醇周报 20250715:估值偏高,驱动 向下》 《甲醇周报 20250819:偏弱震荡为主》 ...
供需矛盾突出且累库格局不变 甲醇价格低位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-28 07:49
Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures prices are under pressure due to high port inventory levels, with the main contract trading at 2243 yuan/ton, down 1.32% [1] Supply and Demand - Domestic methanol operating rates and weekly production have declined, but the decrease is limited; meanwhile, external import pressures are increasing, maintaining high supply pressure [1] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, poor olefin margins exacerbate supply-demand conflicts [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 22, domestic methanol port inventory totaled 1.5122 million tons, up 1.4% from the previous week, indicating relatively high levels [1] - Factory inventories remain stable at low levels, with weak domestic demand; the overall inventory accumulation pattern is unchanged for October, although accumulation pressure has eased [1] Market Outlook - Short-term demand is supported by stable low factory inventories and high MTO operating rates; however, domestic methanol supply remains ample, and supply is expected to continue increasing [1] - A significant decline in MTO industry operating rates is anticipated in November, with weak demand and high port methanol inventory levels leading to continued pressure on methanol prices [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential impact of the Iranian sanctions ship incident [1]