Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply - demand structure of the methanol market is expected to improve, and the methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile trend [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iran Export Restrictions - On October 9, 9 ships responsible for Iran's methanol transportation to China were included in the SDN list, with a total annual transportation capacity of over 4 million tons, accounting for about 40% of Iran's methanol exports to China, which may cause a significant short - term reduction in Iran's methanol arrivals [2] - The sanctions cut off some logistics channels and led to insurance suspension, causing some ships to be stranded. In the short term, the unloading in East China ports will slow down, and the futures price will rise. In the long term, a new transportation network may be built, and the proportion of non - Iran sources may increase, but the cost will be higher [2] Decline in China's Imports - China imports 25% - 30% of its methanol from Iran. The sanctions have cut off logistics channels and increased "secondary sanctions" risks, leading to shipping insurance suspension and ship scheduling tension [2] - In the short term, due to insufficient alternative capacity and longer voyages, the unloading in East China ports will slow down, and the futures price will rise. In the long term, new transportation networks may be built, and non - Iran sources may increase, but the cost will be 300 - 400 yuan/ton higher [2] Demand Recovery - After the National Day holiday, MTO devices restarted, and the average operating load reached 87.97% as of October 10, 2025, a 4.94 - percentage - point increase. The futures profit of methanol - to - olefins decreased by 14 yuan/ton [3] - As of October 10, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 1273000 tons, a slight increase. If Iran's arrivals decline and MTO devices' operating load rises, the inventory may fall [3]