Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [1] Core View - The report's view on methanol is that it will experience low-level fluctuations, and it's necessary to wait before going long. Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short-term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive. The inventory turning point may occur around mid-November, and the subsequent possible driving force lies in potential supply reductions, such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it's advisable to wait before going long on methanol [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2,298 yuan/ton on October 15, 2025, up 1.06% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2,311 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; MA09 closed at 2,269 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The spot price in Taicang was 2,310 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,305 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it rose 2.5 yuan to 2,270 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, it dropped 7.5 yuan to 2,072.5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 17.5 yuan to 2,060 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 12 yuan/ton on October 15, up 1 yuan from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal prices in Baotou, Datong, and Yulin increased, with the largest increase of 2.10% in Yulin. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit was 312.20 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan from the previous day; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 165.20 yuan/ton, up 30.20 yuan. Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at - 502 yuan/ton, while East China MTO profit dropped 142 yuan to - 1003.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.49% [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit was 554.53 yuan/ton, down 5.21%; MTBE profit was 480.20 yuan/ton, down 9.43%; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: Methanol's main contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2,275 yuan/ton and closing at 2,298 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 736,803 lots, and open interest was 1,038,960 lots, showing a decrease in both volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, with 11 ships sanctioned in total, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]