| | | 甲醇日评20251120: 短期供需压力难解,关注预期变动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/18 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2013.00 | 2030.00 | -17.00 | -0.84% | | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 元/吨 | 2150.00 | 2153.00 | -3.00 | -0.14% | | | (收盘价) MA09 | 元/吨 | 2206.00 | 2204.00 | 2.00 | 0.09% | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 1992.50 | 2002.50 | -10.00 | -0.50% | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2147.50 | 2170.00 | -22.50 | -1.04% | | 期现价格 | 广东 | 元/吨 | 1990.00 | 2010.00 | -20.00 | -1.00% | | 及基 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20251119: 短期供需压力难解,关注预期变动 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/17 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2030.00 | 2029.00 | 1.00 | 0.05% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2153.00 | 2145.00 | 8.00 | 0.37% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2204.00 | 2200.00 | 4.00 | 0.18% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2002.50 | 2015.00 | -12.50 | -0.62% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2170.00 | 2170.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2010.00 | 2025.00 | -15.00 ...

| 甲醇日评20251118: 库存压力仍存,现货价格偏弱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | | 指标 | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/14 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 元/吨 | | MA01 | 2029.00 | 2055.00 | -26.00 | -1.27% | | 元/吨 | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 2145.00 | 2163.00 | -18.00 | -0.83% | | 元/吨 | (收盘价) | MA09 | 2200.00 | 2202.00 | -2.00 | -0.09% | | 元/吨 | | 太仓 | 2015.00 | 2045.00 | -30.00 | -1.47% | | 元/吨 | | 山东 | 2170.00 | 2180.00 | -10.00 | -0.46% | | 元/吨 | 期现价格 | 广东 | 2025.00 | 2055.00 | -30.00 | -1.46% | | 元 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20251117: 库存压力仍存,沿海现货偏弱 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2103.00 | -48.00 | -2.28% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2163.00 | 2208.00 | -45.00 | -2.04% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2202.00 | 2231.00 | -29.00 | -1.30% | | | | 太仓 | 元/呼 | 2045.00 | 2067.50 | -22.50 | -1.09% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2180.00 | 2187.50 | -7.50 | -0.34% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2075.00 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The short - term judgment of methanol is low - level oscillation. The absolute price and relative valuation of methanol are already relatively low, so it is not recommended to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive of methanol is limited due to high expected imports and insufficient downstream restocking power. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the expected gas restriction of inland gas - to - methanol, and the increase in option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased from 2125 yuan/ton to 2112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; MA05 decreased from 2226 yuan/ton to 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%; MA09 decreased from 2230 yuan/ton to 2228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In some regions, such as Shandong, it increased from 2172.50 yuan/ton to 2185.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%, while in other regions like Guangdong and Shaanxi, there was no change [1] - Price differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18.00 yuan/ton [1] 2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 increased from 672.50 yuan/ton to 690.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.60%; Yulin Q6000 increased from 670.00 yuan/ton to 680.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49% [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: There was no change in Hohhot and Chongqing [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased from 125.50 yuan/ton to 112.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.04%; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged at - 1100.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Some downstream products like acetic acid and MTBE saw profit increases, with acetic acid increasing from 391.99 yuan/ton to 410.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.74%, and MTBE increasing from 383.68 yuan/ton to 407.28 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15% [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1] - Foreign information: In other regions of the Middle East, there were different price ranges for ship cargo negotiations, and the CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already on the low side, so it is not advisable to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive is limited due to two factors: the winter gas restriction in Iran is less than expected, and the port inventory pressure is difficult to reduce; the raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises is relatively high in the past five years, and the downstream replenishment motivation is temporarily insufficient. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the gas - restriction expectation of inland gas - to - methanol, and the rising option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA05 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.58%); MA09 closed at 2228 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.24%), and in Shandong it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.58%), while in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, the prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18 yuan/ton. The price of some coal types also increased, such as Datong Q5500 increasing by 17.5 yuan/ton (2.60%) and Yulin Q6000 increasing by 10 yuan/ton (1.49%) [1]. b. Cost and Profit Information - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of industrial natural gas in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged. The coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 12.6 yuan/ton (-10.04%), and the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 1100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit Situations**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-21.48%), while the profit of East China MTO increased by 61 yuan/ton (11.00%). The profits of some downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE increased, with acetic acid increasing by 18.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) and MTBE increasing by 23.6 yuan/ton (6.15%) [1]. c. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: In other regions of the Middle East, the reference negotiation for ship cargoes was - 4 - 2%, the buyers' intended bids were - 4 - 5%, and the sellers' intended offers were - 2 - 2.5%. The CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The rebound of methanol prices is limited, and it is still necessary to wait before going long on methanol. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent possible driving force lies in the possible reduction on the supply side, such as the gas - restriction expectation in Iran [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Cost Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2292.00 yuan/ton to 2272.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.87%); MA05 decreased from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2317.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%); MA09 decreased from 2285.00 yuan/ton to 2282.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/ton (-0.13%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The price in Taicang decreased from 2240.00 yuan/ton to 2235.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Port Water Cargo Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 238.10 yuan/ton to 231.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.30 yuan/ton (-2.65%); natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit of Methanol**: Northwest MTO profit increased from - 2.00 yuan/ton to 13.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.00 yuan/ton (750.00%); East China MTO profit increased from - 770.57 yuan/ton to - 727.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.50 yuan/ton (5.65%); acetic acid profit decreased from 477.00 yuan/ton to 468.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.00 yuan/ton (-1.89%); MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 2. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Price**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened. It opened at 2294 yuan/ton, closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 603,000 lots and an open interest of 1,080,950 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The US dollar - denominated methanol market declined steadily. Some November - arriving cargoes from a Middle - Eastern country decreased by 2.5%. Sellers were under great sales pressure and had to reduce prices passively. The reference price in China was 239 - 263 US dollars/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].

| | | 甲醇日评20251024: 原油上涨或推动甲醇反弹 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/22 | 变化值 (絶対值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2292.00 | 2261.00 | 31.00 | 1.37% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2329.00 | 2300.00 | 29.00 | 1.26% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2285.00 | 2259.00 | 26.00 | 1.15% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2240.00 | 2245.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2270.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2250.00 | 2245.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 及其差 | 甲醇规 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in oil prices may drive a rebound in methanol prices, but the extent of the rebound is likely to be limited, and it is advisable to wait before going long on methanol [1] - Methanol prices are relatively high in terms of valuation, mainly compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices; in terms of drivers, the short - term upward momentum for methanol is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drivers [1] - The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and subsequent drivers may come from potential supply reductions, such as the expectation of gas restrictions in Iran [1] - The trading strategy is to remain on the sidelines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices) on October 23, 2025: MA01 was 2292 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 1.37% from the previous day; MA05 was 2329 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.26%; MA09 was 2285 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.15% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average) on October 23, 2025: prices in Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia increased by - 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.74%, 0.12% respectively compared to the previous day, while prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 52 yuan/ton on October 23, 2025, down 36 yuan from the previous day [1] Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices on October 23, 2025: Ordos Q5500 was 580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.87%; Datong Q5500 was 662.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 1.53%; Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 635 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively on October 23, 2025 [1] Profit Situation - On October 23, 2025, coal - based methanol profit was 238.1 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan or 2.58% from the previous day; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472 yuan/ton [1] - On October 23, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was - 2 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 94.59% from the previous day; the profit of East China MTO was - 770.57 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan or 3.93% [1] - On October 23, 2025, the profit of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde decreased by 5.64%, 3.79% respectively compared to the previous day, while the profit of MTBE and ethylene glycol remained unchanged [1] Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2260 yuan/ton, closing at 2292 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 704,659 lots and an open interest of 1,066,380, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving in the far - future is 257 - 264 US dollars/ton, with a lack of active bids and offers; the reference negotiation price for methanol vessels from other Middle - East regions arriving in the far - future is - 1 - 0.5%, with buyers looking for discounted goods and sellers being cautious. Attention should be paid to the methanol plants and shipping schedules in a certain Middle - East country [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [1] Core View - The report's view on methanol is that it will experience low-level fluctuations, and it's necessary to wait before going long. Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short-term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive. The inventory turning point may occur around mid-November, and the subsequent possible driving force lies in potential supply reductions, such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it's advisable to wait before going long on methanol [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2,298 yuan/ton on October 15, 2025, up 1.06% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2,311 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; MA09 closed at 2,269 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The spot price in Taicang was 2,310 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,305 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it rose 2.5 yuan to 2,270 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, it dropped 7.5 yuan to 2,072.5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 17.5 yuan to 2,060 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 12 yuan/ton on October 15, up 1 yuan from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal prices in Baotou, Datong, and Yulin increased, with the largest increase of 2.10% in Yulin. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit was 312.20 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan from the previous day; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 165.20 yuan/ton, up 30.20 yuan. Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at - 502 yuan/ton, while East China MTO profit dropped 142 yuan to - 1003.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.49% [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit was 554.53 yuan/ton, down 5.21%; MTBE profit was 480.20 yuan/ton, down 9.43%; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: Methanol's main contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2,275 yuan/ton and closing at 2,298 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 736,803 lots, and open interest was 1,038,960 lots, showing a decrease in both volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, with 11 ships sanctioned in total, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]