1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 01 contract has limited upward space, and it has been falling continuously after last Tuesday, currently dropping below the 2100 mark. In the short term, attention should be paid to the callback pressure due to high inventory, average MTO profits leading to weak restocking motivation of downstream enterprises, and the decline in coal prices weakening cost support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased from 2089 yuan/ton to 2066 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.10%; MA05 decreased from 2177 yuan/ton to 2143 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.56%; MA09 decreased from 2179 yuan/ton to 2143 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.65% [1] - Spot prices in different regions: Prices in most regions decreased slightly, such as a 0.24% decline in Taicang, a 0.11% decline in Shandong. Only Hubei increased by 0.90% [1] - Coal and natural gas prices: Coal prices in some areas decreased, like a 1.21% decline in Datong Q5500. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Profit Changes - Methanol production profits: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 3.35%, while natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged [1] - Downstream profits: Northwest MTO profit increased by 6.29%, while East China MTO profit decreased by 0.94%. Profits of some downstream products like MTBE decreased, while those of acetic acid and formaldehyde increased [1] 3.3 Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak oscillation, opening at 2082 yuan/ton, closing at 2066 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, with 787,400 lots traded and 723,600 lots held, showing a decrease in volume and positions [1] - Foreign information: Multiple methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and as of December 7, the quantity of methanol shipments loaded in the Middle - Eastern country in December reached around 350,000 tons [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold the 01 short put option until expiration (viewpoint score: 0) [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the callback pressure of methanol. The methanol 01 contract has limited upward space, and the price has fallen below the 2100 mark. The reasons include large short - term inventory pressure, general MTO profit and insufficient restocking power of downstream enterprises, and the decline in coal prices weakening cost support. The recommended trading strategy is to hold the short - put option of 01 until maturity [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, MA01 closed at 2077 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.70%); MA05 closed at 2171 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-1.72%); MA09 closed at 2179 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-1.45%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the price in Taicang was 2082.50 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.19%); in Shandong, it was 2225 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2072.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.84%); prices in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1] - **Price Difference**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was 5.50 yuan/ton on December 5, 2025, an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared with December 4 [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 580 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.43%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 635 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-2.31%); the price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.16 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 234.40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-7.86%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at -1160 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profit**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of Northwest MTO was -267 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-10.33%); the profit of East China MTO was -794.57 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (5.13%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: On December 5, 2025, compared with December 4, the profit of acetic acid was 671.95 yuan/ton, up 56.37 yuan/ton (9.16%); the profit of MTBE was 251.64 yuan/ton, up 7.52 yuan/ton (3.08%); the profit of formaldehyde was -298.80 yuan/ton, up 9.60 yuan/ton (3.11%); the profit of mono - formaldehyde was 346 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (8.81%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Price**: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock on December 5, 2025, opening at 2113 yuan/ton and closing at 2077 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1.0041 million lots, and the open interest was 0.8721 million lots, with shrinking volume and reduced positions [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month was 236 - 250 US dollars/ton, with the offer of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - month last week increasing by 2 - 2.5% and the buyer's bid increasing by 0.8 - 1%, and there was no transaction news for the time being; the reference negotiation price of methanol shipments from other Middle - East regions arriving in the far - month was -1 - 0%, and a small number of shipments from a certain Middle - East country arriving in the far - month had a transaction price decrease of 1%, with insufficient active offers [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the upward space of methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The main reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and if the methanol price rises further, the downstream profit will deteriorate, which may lead to downstream shutdown and negative feedback on demand. Also, the downstream replenishment willingness is not strong, as the current MTO enterprise's original methanol inventory is 71.5 tons, which is on the high side in the past five years, and the port inventory is also relatively high, so the downstream enterprises have insufficient motivation to replenish inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price and Profit Information - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, MA01 closed at 2128 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2214 yuan/ton, down 0.81%; MA09 closed at 2215 yuan/ton, down 0.58% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, prices in most regions decreased slightly, except for Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, which increased by 0.13% and 0.38% respectively [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable or decreased slightly on December 3, 2025 [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 2.61% to 248.10 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit increased by 8.66% to - 1160 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profits of some downstream products such as MTO and MTBE decreased, while those of acetic acid increased [1]. b. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock on December 3, 2025, opening at 2130 yuan/ton, closing at 2128 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 996,300 lots and a position of 948,400 lots, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1]. c. Trading Strategy The report suggests holding the sold put options of the 01 contract until maturity and does not recommend chasing up the 01 contract [1].

| | | 甲醇日评20251204:继续上行空间或有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/12/3 | 2025/12/2 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2128.00 | 2132.00 | -4.00 | -0.19% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2214.00 | 2232.00 | -18.00 | -0.81% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2215.00 | 2228.00 | -13.00 | -0.58% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2112.50 | 2122.50 | -10.00 | -0.47% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2225.00 | 2235.00 | -10.00 | -0.45% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2095.00 | 2105.00 | -10. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2601 contract will experience low - level fluctuations. The core contradiction of methanol lies in the short - term difficulty in demand growth, and the pressure of supply in reality and expectation is continuously strengthened, pushing down the spot and futures prices. For the 01 contract, it is not recommended for unilateral futures operations, but instead, it is suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options in combination with volatility. For the far - month contracts, the outlook is relatively optimistic as the supply pressure may be over - exaggerated, and a reversal in supply expectations could provide a good rebound impetus for methanol [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2013 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) to 2150 yuan/ton, and MA09 increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.09%) to 2206 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions decreased, such as in Shandong (-22.50 yuan/ton, -1.04%), Guangdong (-20 yuan/ton, -1.00%), and Taicang (-10 yuan/ton, -0.50%), while prices in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged, and Inner Mongolia increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.26%) [1] - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.82%) to 615 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 increased by 10 yuan/ton (1.45%) to 700 yuan/ton, and Yulin Q6000 increased by 7.50 yuan/ton (1.10%) to 690 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 80.30 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.53%) to -1330 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-52.49%) to 36.20 yuan/ton, East China MTO increased by 42 yuan/ton (10.81%) to -346.57 yuan/ton, acetic acid increased by 11 yuan/ton (2.28%) to 492.72 yuan/ton, MTBE increased by 20 yuan/ton (7.71%) to 279.40 yuan/ton, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at -246.00 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2030 yuan/ton, closing at 2013 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,387,439 lots and an open interest of 1,450,621 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country plans to shut down for maintenance in early December, and two other plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons plan to shut down at the end of this month or early December. Attention should be paid to weather and raw material supply [1] 4. Trading Strategy - For the 01 contract, sell out - of - the - money put options in combination with volatility and pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2601 contract will experience low - level fluctuations. The core contradiction of methanol currently is that demand is difficult to increase in the short term, while supply pressure both in reality and expectation is continuously strengthened, pushing down spot and futures prices. This contradiction cannot be resolved in the 01 contract. With high port inventories, lack of restocking motivation from downstream, and high import expectations from November to December, supply pressure cannot be effectively alleviated this year. For the 01 contract, futures unilateral operation is not recommended, and it is suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options based on volatility. The report is relatively optimistic about the far - month contracts as the supply pressure may be over - exaggerated, and if the supply - side expectation reverses, it may provide good rebound momentum for methanol [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2029.00 yuan/ton to 2030.00 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase; MA05 rose from 2145.00 yuan/ton to 2153.00 yuan/ton, a 0.37% increase; MA09 increased from 2200.00 yuan/ton to 2204.00 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased. For example, the price in Hubei dropped from 2140.00 yuan/ton to 2100.00 yuan/ton, a 1.87% decrease; in Guangdong, it fell from 2025.00 yuan/ton to 2010.00 yuan/ton, a 0.74% decrease [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 14.00 yuan/ton to - 27.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 610.00 yuan/ton and 690.00 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of Yulin Q6000 increased from 680.00 yuan/ton to 682.50 yuan/ton, a 0.37% increase [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 100.30 yuan/ton to 80.30 yuan/ton, a 19.94% decrease; natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 1310.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased from 461.72 yuan/ton to 481.72 yuan/ton, a 4.33% increase; the profit of MTBE decreased from 301.88 yuan/ton to 259.40 yuan/ton, a 14.07% decrease [1] 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: For far - month arriving Middle - East methanol cargoes, the reference negotiation price is - 4 - 1.8%, with some factories reluctant to sell at low prices and buyers' bid at - 4 - 3.5%. Both sides are in a price tug - of - war [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - East country plans to shut down for maintenance in early December, and two other plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons plan to shut down at the end of this month or early December. Attention should be paid to later weather and raw material supply [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. The current methanol valuation is at a relatively low level. It is not recommended to continue short - selling from the valuation perspective. The upward driving force is limited, mainly due to the less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Profit Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2055 yuan/ton to 2029 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.27%; MA05 decreased from 2163 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%; MA09 decreased from 2202 yuan/ton to 2200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.09% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, with Shaanxi having the largest decline of 2.06% from 1945 yuan/ton to 1905 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit Situations**: Coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol profits remained unchanged. Northwest MTO profit decreased by 11.60%, while East China MTO profit increased by 15.27%. Acetic acid profit increased by 3.07%, and MTBE profit decreased by 16.99% [1] 2. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2049 yuan/ton, closing at 2029 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1178856 lots and open interest of 1497531, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: In a Middle - Eastern country, 11 methanol plants maintained their existing load, with an average operating load of 76.82%. As of November 16, the total methanol loading volume this month was 575000 tons [1] 3. Market Analysis - The supply expectation has pushed down the spot prices, especially in coastal areas. The upward driving force for methanol is limited due to less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]

| | | 甲醇日评20251117: 库存压力仍存,沿海现货偏弱 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2103.00 | -48.00 | -2.28% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2163.00 | 2208.00 | -45.00 | -2.04% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2202.00 | 2231.00 | -29.00 | -1.30% | | | | 太仓 | 元/呼 | 2045.00 | 2067.50 | -22.50 | -1.09% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2180.00 | 2187.50 | -7.50 | -0.34% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2075.00 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The short - term judgment of methanol is low - level oscillation. The absolute price and relative valuation of methanol are already relatively low, so it is not recommended to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive of methanol is limited due to high expected imports and insufficient downstream restocking power. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the expected gas restriction of inland gas - to - methanol, and the increase in option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased from 2125 yuan/ton to 2112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; MA05 decreased from 2226 yuan/ton to 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%; MA09 decreased from 2230 yuan/ton to 2228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In some regions, such as Shandong, it increased from 2172.50 yuan/ton to 2185.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%, while in other regions like Guangdong and Shaanxi, there was no change [1] - Price differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18.00 yuan/ton [1] 2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 increased from 672.50 yuan/ton to 690.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.60%; Yulin Q6000 increased from 670.00 yuan/ton to 680.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49% [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: There was no change in Hohhot and Chongqing [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased from 125.50 yuan/ton to 112.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.04%; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged at - 1100.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Some downstream products like acetic acid and MTBE saw profit increases, with acetic acid increasing from 391.99 yuan/ton to 410.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.74%, and MTBE increasing from 383.68 yuan/ton to 407.28 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15% [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1] - Foreign information: In other regions of the Middle East, there were different price ranges for ship cargo negotiations, and the CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already on the low side, so it is not advisable to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive is limited due to two factors: the winter gas restriction in Iran is less than expected, and the port inventory pressure is difficult to reduce; the raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises is relatively high in the past five years, and the downstream replenishment motivation is temporarily insufficient. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the gas - restriction expectation of inland gas - to - methanol, and the rising option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA05 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.58%); MA09 closed at 2228 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.24%), and in Shandong it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.58%), while in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, the prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18 yuan/ton. The price of some coal types also increased, such as Datong Q5500 increasing by 17.5 yuan/ton (2.60%) and Yulin Q6000 increasing by 10 yuan/ton (1.49%) [1]. b. Cost and Profit Information - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of industrial natural gas in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged. The coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 12.6 yuan/ton (-10.04%), and the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 1100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit Situations**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-21.48%), while the profit of East China MTO increased by 61 yuan/ton (11.00%). The profits of some downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE increased, with acetic acid increasing by 18.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) and MTBE increasing by 23.6 yuan/ton (6.15%) [1]. c. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: In other regions of the Middle East, the reference negotiation for ship cargoes was - 4 - 2%, the buyers' intended bids were - 4 - 5%, and the sellers' intended offers were - 2 - 2.5%. The CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1].