| | | 甲醇日评20250827:回归偏弱基本面 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 2025/8/26 2025/8/25 | 单位 | | | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2395.00 | 2424.00 | -29.00 | -1.20% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2382.00 | 2402.00 | -20.00 | -0.83% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2272.00 | 2308.00 | -36.00 | -1.56% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2297.50 | -22.50 | -0.98% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2310.00 | 2310.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2285.00 | 2295.00 | -10.00 | ...

| 甲醇日评20250822: 反弹空间有限 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | | 变化值 变化值 指标 2025/8/21 2025/8/20 | | | | | (绝对值) (相对值) | | | MA01 | | 元/吨 2425.00 2424.00 1.00 0.04% | | | 元/吨 | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 2393.00 2402.00 -9.00 -0.37% | | | 2314.00 | (收盘价) | -0.04% MA09 元/吨 2315.00 -1.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 太仓 2310.00 2300.00 10.00 0.43% | | | 元/吨 | | 山东 2310.00 2300.00 10.00 0.43% | | | 广东 | | 元/吨 2295.00 2290.00 5.00 0.22% | 期现价格 | | 元/吨 | 甲醇现货价格 | -10.00 -0.47% 陕西 2120.00 2130.00 | 及基差 | | | (日度均价) | | | | 川渝 | | 元/吨 2200.00 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250821: 反弹空间有限 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/8/20 | 2025/8/19 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2424.00 | 2391.00 | 33.00 | 1.38% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2402.00 | 2376.00 | 26.00 | 1.09% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2315.00 | 2285.00 | 30.00 | 1.31% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2300.00 | 2280.00 | 20.00 | 0.88% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2300.00 | 2315.00 | -15.00 | -0.65% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2290.00 | 2275.00 | 15.00 | 0.66% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is still weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, but downstream profits in the inland areas are poor with room for repair, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old facilities in methanol production is small. The supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and the port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which will suppress the spot price in East China. After the weakening of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 18, 2025, MA01 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) from August 15; MA05 closed at 2378 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.38%); MA09 closed at 2293 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in various regions on August 18, 2025, showed declines compared to August 15, except for Hubei where it remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang was 2300 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.29%); in Shandong, it was 2315 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.28%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 14 yuan/ton from August 15 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Buzhoukes Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 520 yuan/ton and 587.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 575 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from August 15 [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol was 413.70 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 16.30 yuan/ton (-3.79%) from August 15. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 412 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: The profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of Northwest MTO was 99.40 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, up 55.20 yuan/ton (124.89%) from August 15; the profit of MTBE was 74.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-26.16%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 438,253 lots, and the open interest was 665,628, with shrinking volume and increasing open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: After some methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country restarted or increased their loads, the overall methanol operating rate in that country reached 66.36%, and the daily total methanol production increased. As of August 18, the methanol loading volume in that country reached 715,000 tons, a 385,000 - ton increase (116.67%) compared to the same period last month [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated weakly, and the night - session closed at 2375. Given the weak fundamental outlook, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly after the weakening of coking coal sentiment [1]

| | | 甲醇日评20250813: 内地煤制甲醇供应逐步增加 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/8/12 | 2025/8/11 | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2496.00 | 2485.00 | 11.00 | 0.44% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2461.00 | 2451.00 | 10.00 | 0.41% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2391.00 | 2389.00 | 2.00 | 0.08% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2375.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2355.00 | 2330.00 | 25.00 | 1.07% | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2375.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. From a driving force perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited actual impact on methanol production, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, suppressing the spot price in East China. The recent coking coal sentiment will still affect methanol, but the rebound space of methanol is expected to be limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2497.00 yuan/ton to 2475.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00 yuan/ton (-0.88%); MA05 decreased from 2454.00 yuan/ton to 2439.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA09 decreased from 2388.00 yuan/ton to 2383.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.21%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In regions like Taicang, the price decreased from 2382.50 yuan/ton to 2380.00 yuan/ton (-0.10%); in Shandong, it decreased from 2342.50 yuan/ton to 2335.00 yuan/ton (-0.32%); in Guangdong, it decreased from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2372.50 yuan/ton (-0.32%); in Shaanxi, it increased from 2127.50 yuan/ton to 2135.00 yuan/ton (0.35%); in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2105.00 yuan/ton to 2090.00 yuan/ton (-0.71%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased from 492.50 yuan/ton to 495.00 yuan/ton (0.51%), while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Profit Changes - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 451.50 yuan/ton to 445.20 yuan/ton (-1.40%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 500.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 63.00 yuan/ton to 34.20 yuan/ton (-45.71%); East China MTO profit decreased from - 641.57 yuan/ton to - 654.57 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid profit decreased from 215.84 yuan/ton to 204.76 yuan/ton (-5.13%); MTBE profit increased from 207.68 yuan/ton to 217.68 yuan/ton (4.82%); formaldehyde profit remained at - 301.60 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 decreased slightly, opening at 2391 yuan/ton, closing at 2383 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 298,400 lots and an open interest of 406,384 lots. All contracts except the 2508 contract had trading volume [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a certain Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report has a weak outlook on the fundamentals of methanol. In terms of valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have declined slightly, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories of downstream MTO enterprises and expected port inventory accumulation, the methanol rebound space is expected to be limited [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2475 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.88%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2439 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA09 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions decreased on 2025/8/8 compared to the previous day, except in Shaanxi where it increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (0.35%). The prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - Price difference: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 95 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, up 19.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b) Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased by 2.5 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 495 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 445.20 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.40%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 500 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit was 34.20 yuan/ton, down 28.80 yuan/ton (-45.71%); East China MTO profit was - 654.57 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-2.03%). Among other downstream products, acetic acid profit decreased by 11.08 yuan/ton (-5.13%), MTBE profit increased by 10 yuan/ton (4.82%), and the profits of formaldehyde and other products remained unchanged [1]. d) Important Information - Domestic information: The main methanol contract MA2509 decreased slightly, opening at 2391 yuan/ton, closing at 2383 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 298,400 lots and an open interest of 406,384. All contracts except 2508 had trading volume [1]. - Foreign information: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1]. e) Summary The report maintains a weak expectation for methanol fundamentals. Although the anti - involution policy may cause fluctuations in coking coal and affect the methanol market, the actual impact on methanol production is limited. The supply of inland coal - based methanol is increasing, and with high downstream inventories and expected port inventory accumulation, the upward space for methanol prices is expected to be limited [1].

Report Summary of Methanol Daily Review on August 6, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Although there was a rebound in MA, the expected anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. With high upstream coal - head profits, slightly lower coastal MTO profits, poor inland downstream profits, and high downstream MTO enterprise raw material inventories, the port is likely to continue to accumulate inventory, suppressing the East China spot price. The recent rally in methanol is expected to have limited upside due to the weak fundamentals, despite the influence of coking coal sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, up 10 yuan/ton (0.40%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2447 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.66%); MA09 closed at 2397 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.29%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, prices in Shandong increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.65%), in Guangdong by 7.5 yuan/ton (0.32%), and in Hubei by 45 yuan/ton (1.93%), while prices in Shaanxi decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 129.50 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 coal increased by 5 yuan/ton (1.04%), and the price of Datong Q5500 coal increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (2.27%), while the price of Yulin Q6000 coal remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit was 470.40 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, up 53.70 yuan/ton (12.89%) from the previous day, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: Profits of Northwest MTO decreased by 10 yuan/ton (- 9.58%), and profits of East China MTO decreased by 32 yuan/ton (- 5.08%). Profits of acetic acid decreased by 6.58 yuan/ton (- 2.76%), while profits of MTBE increased by 7.44 yuan/ton (4.64%). Profits of formaldehyde decreased by 38.80 yuan/ton (- 14.76%), and profits of a certain product decreased by 184 yuan/ton (- 56.44%) [1]. 3.3 Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 rebounded, closing at 2397 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 372,112 lots and an open interest of 484,212 lots, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 2.65 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. The overall operating load of methanol plants in this country is low, with the recent overall operating rate dropping to 56%, and the daily total output of methanol plants being less than 30,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the loading speed at the port [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Given the recent rebound in MA and the repeated expectations of anti - involution policies, and the influence of the coking coal limit - up on the coal - chemical sentiment, the fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. The upstream coal - head profits are high, coastal MTO profits are slightly lower, and inland downstream profits are poor, indicating that methanol is relatively over - valued. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and with high downstream MTO enterprise raw material inventories, port inventory accumulation is likely to continue, suppressing the East China spot price. The recent rally in methanol is expected to have limited upside [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. Methanol valuation is relatively high. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and it's likely that ports will continue to accumulate inventory, suppressing the spot price in East China. Although coking coal sentiment will affect methanol, the rebound space for methanol is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, up 10 yuan/ton (0.40%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2447 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.66%); MA09 closed at 2397 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.29%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei increased, while those in Shaanxi decreased. Prices in Taicang and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. For example, the price in Shandong rose 15 yuan/ton (0.65%) to 2330 yuan/ton, and the price in Shaanxi fell 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.12%) to 2122.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 129.50 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 increased, while the price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. Ordos Q5500 rose 5 yuan/ton (1.04%) to 487.5 yuan/ton, and Datong Q5500 rose 12.5 yuan/ton (2.27%) to 562.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit was 470.40 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, up 53.70 yuan/ton (12.89%) from the previous day. Natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: Profits of MTBE increased, while those of Northwest MTO, East China MTO, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and another product decreased. For example, MTBE profit rose 7.44 yuan/ton (4.64%) to 167.68 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit fell 32.00 yuan/ton (-5.08%) to - 661.57 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 stopped falling and rebounded, opening at 2374 yuan/ton, closing at 2397 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 372,112 lots, and open interest was 484,212 lots, with both volume and open interest decreasing [1] - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 2.65 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. The overall operating load of methanol plants in this country is low, with the recent overall operating rate dropping to 56%, and the daily total output of methanol plants less than 30,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the loading speed at the port in the future [1] Trading Strategy - The previous day, MA rebounded and closed at 2392 in the night session. The expectation of the anti - involution policy will still fluctuate. The daily limit of coking coal the previous day affected the sentiment of coal - chemical products. Considering the weak fundamentals, the rebound space for methanol is expected to be limited [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol is weak, but short - term policy expectations have a greater impact than the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. The port inventory is likely to continue to increase, putting pressure on the spot price in East China [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 rose from 2497 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase; MA05 rose from 2428 yuan/ton to 2473 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase; MA09 rose from 2411 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions increased slightly, with the largest increase in the MA09 futures price. The price in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buhuos Q5500 increased by 0.56%, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased by 1.48%, while the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO remained unchanged, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 19.88% [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: The profit of MTBE increased by 20.83%, the profit of formaldehyde increased by 3.73%, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 11.23% [1] 3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and rose, with increased trading volume and decreased positions. All contracts had transactions during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at a fixed load. The loading speed at the port is expected to increase in mid - to - late July compared to early July [1]