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甲醇日评:低位震荡-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 05:50
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The current methanol spot price is in a low - level oscillation. Due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland, the upside space is limited. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient because of high absolute port inventory levels and weak restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also low, the room for further decline is limited. With the upcoming traditional downstream peak season, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On September 17, 2025, MA01 closed at 2376 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 remained unchanged at 2397 yuan/ton; MA09 closed at 2371 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton, while prices in Guangdong decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) to 2275 yuan/ton, and prices in Inner Mongolia decreased by 15 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) to 2120 yuan/ton. Prices in some regions such as Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b) Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the price of Bohai Rim Q5500 increased by 10 yuan/ton (1.99%) to 512.5 yuan/ton, the price of Datong Q5500 increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (1.32%) to 575 yuan/ton, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (2.16%) to 592.5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (- 1.42%) to 436.3 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 362 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of East China MTO increased by 44.5 yuan/ton (7.10%) to - 582.57 yuan/ton, the profit of acetic acid increased by 24.15 yuan/ton (5.03%) to 504.04 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE increased by 93.6 yuan/ton (31.46%) to 391.12 yuan/ton [1]. d) Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 was weakly oscillating, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2376 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 387,439 lots, and the open interest was 836,608 lots, with shrinking volume and increasing positions [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants in Southeast Asia with a total capacity of 2.6 million tons are under maintenance, and a small amount of Chinese goods are exported to Southeast Asia [1].
甲醇日评20250911:低位震荡,关注低多机会-20250911
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 03:25
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The current methanol price is oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum in the short - term due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season for traditional downstream industries, it is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - position opportunities [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 rose from 2398 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, a change of 9 yuan/ton (0.38%); MA05 rose from 2391 yuan/ton to 2409 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.75%); MA09 rose from 2247 yuan/ton to 2265 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.80%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in most regions increased slightly, such as in Shandong (from 2360 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, 1.27%), Guangdong (from 2275 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, 0.77%), etc. Some regions remained unchanged, like Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei [1] - **Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] b) Cost and Profit Situation - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable, with only the price of Yulin Q6000 coal rising from 557.50 yuan/ton to 567.50 yuan/ton (1.79%) [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 455.20 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 382 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: Profits of some downstream products changed, such as acetic acid rising from 441.65 yuan/ton to 456.15 yuan/ton (3.28%), formaldehyde rising from - 296.40 yuan/ton to - 286.40 yuan/ton (3.37%), while MTBE and diethylene glycol remained unchanged. The profits of Northwest MTO and East China MTO decreased, with Northwest MTO changing from 2 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton (- 750.00%) and East China MTO changing from - 497.07 yuan/ton to - 527.57 yuan/ton (- 6.14%) [1] c) Trading Information - The domestic methanol futures main contract MA2601 oscillated upwards, opening at 2398 yuan/ton, closing at 2407 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 540,390 lots, and the open interest was 755,966 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] d) Foreign Information - For far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments, the reference negotiation price is 253 - 264 US dollars/ton. For far - month methanol shipments from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price is +0 - 0.6%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5%. Some individuals are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of active offers at fixed prices [1] e) Trading Strategy - Focus on opportunities to go long at low prices [1]
甲醇日评:等待做多机会-20250904
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoint - The report believes that methanol is in a low - level oscillation state. It is recommended to wait for long - making opportunities. Although the upstream coal - based profit is still high, the coastal profit has rebounded to a high level, and the valuation of East China methanol price relative to downstream is low, with limited further downward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering the low East China spot price and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities to go long later [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 increased from 2372.00 yuan/ton to 2382.00 yuan/ton, a change of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.42%; MA05 increased from 2372.00 yuan/ton to 2379.00 yuan/ton, a change of 7.00 yuan/ton or 0.30%; MA09 increased from 2212.00 yuan/ton to 2226.00 yuan/ton, a change of 14.00 yuan/ton or 0.63% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased, while those in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged. For example, Taicang increased from 2235.00 yuan/ton to 2252.50 yuan/ton, a change of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.78% [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 137.00 yuan/ton to - 129.50 yuan/ton, a change of 7.50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 547.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit increased from 398.90 yuan/ton to 405.20 yuan/ton, a change of 6.30 yuan/ton or 1.58%; natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 442.00 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 303.00 yuan/ton to 44.60 yuan/ton, a decline of 258.40 yuan/ton or 85.28%; East China MTO profit decreased from - 371.07 yuan/ton to - 388.07 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.00 yuan/ton or 4.58% [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: The profit of acetic acid increased from 348.47 yuan/ton to 376.53 yuan/ton, a change of 28.06 yuan/ton or 8.05%, while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2373 yuan/ton, closing at 2382 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 500463 lots, and the open interest was 795320, with increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 258 - 266 US dollars/ton, and there is insufficient active offering. The reference negotiation price of methanol shipments from other regions in the Middle East arriving in the far - future is + 0 - 0.6%, and sellers are reluctant to sell at low prices [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Wait for long - making opportunities. Methanol is in a low - level oscillation state. Although the upward driving force is limited in the short term, considering the low spot price and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries, there may be opportunities to go long later [1]
甲醇日评:回归偏弱基本面-20250901
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 07:47
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol price has returned to a weak fundamental situation. From a valuation perspective, the upstream coal - based methanol profit is still high, while the downstream profit in the inland area is poor, with room for repair, and the methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving force perspective, the return of inland and imported supplies exerts downward pressure on the methanol price. Currently, the raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises is high, and there is little demand for further inventory building. It is highly likely that the port inventory will continue to accumulate, so the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: On August 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, MA01 decreased by 12 yuan/ton (-0.51%) to 2361 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.46%) to 2372 yuan/ton, and MA09 decreased by 21 yuan/ton (-0.94%) to 2204 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in most regions decreased slightly, such as in Guangdong, which decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%) to 2245 yuan/ton, and in Shaanxi, which decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.47%) to 2105 yuan/ton. Prices in Shandong, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 4.50 yuan/ton to - 136 yuan/ton [1]. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Prices**: The prices of most coal varieties remained unchanged, except for Yulin Q6000, which decreased by 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.45%) to 555 yuan/ton [1]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: The industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-2.31%) to 422.60 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 462 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 35 yuan/ton (-9.51%) to 333 yuan/ton, while the profit of East China MTO increased by 51.50 yuan/ton (19.80%) to - 208.57 yuan/ton. The profits of most downstream products such as acetic acid, MTBE, etc. increased [1]. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2373 yuan/ton, closing at 2361 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 419,697 lots, and the open interest was 821,019 lots, with a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating loads. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country has increased to around 79%, and the daily output has continued to reach a high level [1]. Trading Strategy The methanol price has returned to a weak fundamental situation. Considering the valuation and driving factors, the upward driving force for methanol is not strong. However, it should be noted that this logic has been partially reflected in the market, and there is also an anti - involution expectation for chemical products [1].
甲醇日评:回归偏弱基本面-20250829
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:22
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while inland downstream profits are still poor, leaving room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the return of inland and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and are unlikely to build further inventories. Port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, and the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 28, 2025, MA01 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2225 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.98%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2232.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.78%); in Shandong, it was 2295.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2260.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.33%); in Shaanxi, it was 2115.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hubei, it was 2340.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 140.50 yuan/ton, down 18.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the price of Datong Q5500 coal was 555.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-1.33%); the price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 557.50 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.89%); the industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; in Chongqing, it was 3.14 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 432.60 yuan/ton, down 3.70 yuan/ton (-0.85%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 462.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of Northwest MTO was 423.20 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.50%); the profit of East China MTO was - 260.07 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan/ton (-2.77%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 309.06 yuan/ton, up 20.27 yuan/ton (7.02%); the profit of MTBE was 4.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-86.54%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 291.60 yuan/ton, up 4.80 yuan/ton (1.62%); the profit of another product was 142.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton (10.94%) [1] 3. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2372 yuan/ton, closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 461,214 lots, and open interest was 785,833 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. Recently, the operating rate of methanol plants in that country has increased to around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level. Attention should be paid to the loading frequency and cargo flow direction [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2377 at night. With the decline of coking coal, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state [1]
甲醇日评:回归偏弱基本面-20250828
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while downstream profits in the inland areas are still poor, indicating room for improvement. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The return of domestic and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, with limited demand for further inventory building, and port inventory accumulation is likely. The upward momentum for methanol is not strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 23 yuan/ton (-0.96%) to 2372 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2366 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-1.10%) to 2247 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, except for a 2.5 - yuan/ton (0.12%) increase in Shaanxi, and no change in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and the average price of 2180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Inner Mongolia's Taicang spot - MA decreased by 2 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to - 120 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-1.01%) to 490 yuan/ton; Datong Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 562.5 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 562.5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot decreased by 0.73 yuan/cubic meter (-18.53%) to 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, while the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.14 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged at 436.3 yuan/ton and - 462 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-8.55%) to 107 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit increased by 71.5 yuan/ton (22.03%) to - 253.07 yuan/ton; Acetic acid profit increased by 27.31 yuan/ton (10.44%) to 288.79 yuan/ton; MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak oscillation, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 482,265 lots, and open interest was 754,731, with increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country has reached around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating weakly, with the night - session closing at 2361. Attention should be paid to the potential impacts of the market's partial reflection of the current logic and the anti - involution expectations,[1].
甲醇日评:回归偏弱基本面-20250827
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:36
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. In terms of drivers, the return of inland and imported supplies exerts downward pressure on methanol prices, and with high raw material inventories of downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory accumulation is likely, so the upward driving force for methanol is weak [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.20%); MA05 at 2382 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.83%); MA09 at 2272 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.56%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, except for Hubei which increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.65%). For example, the price in Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (-0.98%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 6.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: Most coal prices declined, such as Ordos Q5500 at 495 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-1.00%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 62.6 yuan/ton (16.75%), while natural - gas - based methanol profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-2.21%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Profits of most downstream products changed. For example, the profit of Northwest MTO increased by 51.4 yuan/ton (78.35%), while the profit of formaldehyde decreased by 24 yuan/ton (-8.81%) [1] c) Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2425 yuan/ton, closing at 2395 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 373,944 lots, and open interest was 710,322, with decreasing volume and increasing positions [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some plants increased their loads. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country reached around 79%, and daily output continued to rise [1] d) Trading Strategy - After the previous trading day's decline, with the fall of coking coal, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental situation. Considering valuation and driving factors, the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1]
甲醇日评:反弹空间有限-20250822
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 03:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report believes that the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is limited. The upstream coal - based profit is still high, and the domestic downstream profit is still poor, with room for repair, so the methanol valuation is relatively high. The return of domestic and imported supplies gives a downward drive to the methanol price. Currently, the raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises is high, and it is difficult to have further inventory - building demand. It is highly likely that the port will continue to accumulate inventory, so the upward drive of methanol is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2425 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2393 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.37%); MA09 closed at 2314 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong, spot prices increased slightly on August 21, 2025, while in Shaanxi, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.47%). Spot prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 115 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Cost and Profit - **Coal and Gas Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 coal decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.45%) to 510 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. The industrial natural gas price in Hohhot remained unchanged, and in Chongqing, it decreased by 0.05 yuan/cubic meter (-1.57%) [1]. - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 373.70 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol increased by 40 yuan/ton (8.66%) to - 422 yuan/ton. The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 30 yuan/ton (41.67%) to 102 yuan/ton, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 24.50 yuan/ton (-5.20%) to - 496.07 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 5.50 yuan/ton (-2.32%), while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated and rose on August 21, 2025, opening at 2424 yuan/ton and closing at 2425 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 459,301 lots, and the open interest was 680,234 lots, with a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Currently, only one 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the remaining plants are operating at their original loads. Attention should be paid to the operation dynamics of local methanol plants in the second half of the month [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - The recent rebound of methanol is mainly due to the successful trial - run of a downstream glacial acetic acid plant and the removal of naphtha production capacity in South Korea, which boosted the olefin price. However, the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [1].
甲醇日评:反弹空间有限-20250821
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:31
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report believes that the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to short on rallies. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is room for repair of downstream profits. The supply of methanol from domestic and imported sources will put downward pressure on prices, and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2391 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.38%; MA05 rose from 2376 yuan/ton to 2402 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; MA09 climbed from 2285 yuan/ton to 2315 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In太仓, it went up from 2280 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase; in Shandong, it decreased from 2315 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton, a -0.65% change; in Guangdong, it rose from 2275 yuan/ton to 2290 yuan/ton, a 0.66% increase [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 decreased from 520 yuan/ton to 517.50 yuan/ton, a -0.48% change; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 582.50 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 dropped from 575 yuan/ton to 572.50 yuan/ton, a -0.43% change [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained at 373.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas - to - methanol stayed at -462 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased from 122 yuan/ton to 72 yuan/ton, a -40.98% change; the profit of East China MTO dropped from -421.57 yuan/ton to -471.57 yuan/ton, a -11.86% change; the profit of acetic acid decreased from 248.86 yuan/ton to 237.32 yuan/ton, a -4.64% change; the profit of MTBE decreased from 69.12 yuan/ton to 39.12 yuan/ton, a -43.40% change [1]. c) Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 stopped falling and rebounded, opening at 2393 yuan/ton and closing at 2424 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 762,703 lots, and the open interest was 674,733 lots, showing increasing volume and decreasing open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Currently, only one 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the remaining plants are operating at their normal loads. Attention should be paid to the operation of local methanol plants in the second half of the month [1]. d) Trading Strategy The rebound on the previous trading day was mainly due to the successful trial - run of a downstream glacial acetic acid plant and the reduction of naphtha capacity in South Korea, which boosted the olefin prices. However, considering the weak fundamentals, it is recommended to short on rallies [1].
甲醇日评:港口累库速度加快-20250819
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 03:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is still weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, but downstream profits in the inland areas are poor with room for repair, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old facilities in methanol production is small. The supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and the port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which will suppress the spot price in East China. After the weakening of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 18, 2025, MA01 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) from August 15; MA05 closed at 2378 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.38%); MA09 closed at 2293 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in various regions on August 18, 2025, showed declines compared to August 15, except for Hubei where it remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang was 2300 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.29%); in Shandong, it was 2315 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.28%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 14 yuan/ton from August 15 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Buzhoukes Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 520 yuan/ton and 587.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 575 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from August 15 [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol was 413.70 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 16.30 yuan/ton (-3.79%) from August 15. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 412 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: The profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of Northwest MTO was 99.40 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, up 55.20 yuan/ton (124.89%) from August 15; the profit of MTBE was 74.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-26.16%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 438,253 lots, and the open interest was 665,628, with shrinking volume and increasing open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: After some methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country restarted or increased their loads, the overall methanol operating rate in that country reached 66.36%, and the daily total methanol production increased. As of August 18, the methanol loading volume in that country reached 715,000 tons, a 385,000 - ton increase (116.67%) compared to the same period last month [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated weakly, and the night - session closed at 2375. Given the weak fundamental outlook, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly after the weakening of coking coal sentiment [1]