Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, indicating that the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall, while the port market is expected to maintain high volatility with both upward and downward movements this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2,220 - 2,275 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the MA2601 contract, the mainland has support from low upstream factory inventory, strong coal prices, and low methanol prices in production areas, but there is also supply pressure in some areas, negative feedback from olefin plants, and high port inventory. The port market is affected by the sanctions event, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals, and is expected to be highly volatile. The overall market is rated as neutral. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas also decreased, both being bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The net position of the main holders is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and futures prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.78% week - on - week, and the futures price decreased by 1.53% week - on - week. The basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [9][11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia decreased by 95 yuan/ton week - on - week, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol in the northwest decreased by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week [21]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the operating rate in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 3.02 million tons to 78.71 million tons, and the inventory in South China ports decreased by 1.93 million tons to 48.27 million tons [8]. - **External market prices**: The CFR price in China decreased by 0.76% week - on - week, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia decreased by 0.61% week - on - week. The price difference remained unchanged [25]. - **Downstream product prices and profits**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged. The profit of formaldehyde production increased by 9 yuan/ton, the profit of dimethyl ether production increased by 28 yuan/ton, and the profit of acetic acid production increased by 22 yuan/ton. The MTO device profit increased by 128 yuan/ton, and the MTO load increased by 0.15% [31][36][39][43][48]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or reduced load, including those in the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are in shutdown or maintenance states [57]. - **Overseas methanol plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, such as some are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are under maintenance [58]. - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, and Ningxia Baofeng is operating stably [59].