1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As the holiday approaches, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range next week. The inland methanol market is gradually entering the pre - holiday adjustment period. On the demand side, traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde have successively shut down for holidays, and some downstream players have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, leading to a gradual decline in terminal demand. On the supply side, domestic methanol plants have continued to increase their sales efforts, with enterprise inventory levels running at a low level. Some enterprises have adopted a limited - sales strategy, and the overall supply side remains sufficient without obvious pressure. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity has significantly decreased, and it is expected that the inland methanol market will maintain a light consolidation pattern in the short term. In the port area, methanol futures followed the non - ferrous metals sector through a round of sharp rises and falls and then fell into range - bound fluctuations again. Currently, the capital sentiment has dissipated, the geopolitical risk between the US and Iran is uncertain, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. It is expected that the port market will fluctuate within the bottom range before the holiday. The operation is recommended to focus on reducing risk exposure. Keep an eye on whether and when US President Trump will launch a real military action against Iran [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The report predicts that the domestic methanol market will be range - bound next week due to the approaching holiday. The inland market is in a pre - holiday adjustment, with demand shrinking and supply sufficient. The port market is affected by factors such as capital sentiment and geopolitical risks, and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The domestic methanol prices in different regions showed different trends from January 30th to February 6th. Prices in Jiangsu decreased by 2.78%, those in Hebei increased by 1.24%, those in Inner Mongolia increased by 1.12%, and those in Fujian decreased by 4.11%, while prices in Lunan remained unchanged [8] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From January 30th to February 6th, the spot price decreased by 2.78%, the futures price decreased by 3.28%, and the basis increased by 13 [11] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - From January 30th to February 6th, the profit of coal - to - methanol increased by 76, that of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged, and that of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol increased by 324 [13] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load this week was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week; the load in the northwest was 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% compared with last week [15] 3.2.5 Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - From January 30th to February 6th, the CFR China price decreased by 2.24%, the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 6 [18] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - From January 30th to February 6th, the spot price decreased by 2.78%, the import cost decreased by 2.26%, and the import spread decreased by 11 [21] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from January 30th to February 6th [27] 3.2.8 Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the formaldehyde production profit decreased by 11, and the load increased by 0.01% [28] 3.2.9 Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 36, and the load increased by 1.45% [30] 3.2.10 Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the acetic acid production profit increased by 35, and the load decreased by 1.29% [35] 3.2.11 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from - 1264 on January 30th to - 1062 on February 6th, and the load decreased by 0.18% [39] 3.2.12 Methanol Port Inventory - This week, the inventory in East China was 56.36, a decrease of 3.22 compared with last week; the inventory in South China was 39.78, a decrease of 0.02 compared with last week [41] 3.2.13 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From January 30th to February 6th, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.99%, and the effective forecasts remained unchanged [42] 3.3检修状况 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, planned maintenance, or have production problems in various regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based methanol device has been under maintenance since early November 2024 [44] 3.3.2 Foreign Methanol Device Operation - Foreign methanol enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the US have different operating conditions. Some are in normal operation, some are restarting and recovering, and some are under maintenance. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have one set restored, but it needs to be verified [45] 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices will be shut down for maintenance on March 15th for about 45 days [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Downstream MTO maintenance continues to increase, with Tianjin Bohua MTO advancing its maintenance to January 23, Xingxing shutting down for maintenance on January 12, and Ningbo Fude under maintenance from early December to late January. Port MTO maintenance drags down port demand. Supply disturbances depend on the Iranian situation, which has slowed down for now. Methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week, with Jiangsu de - stocking and Zhejiang stocking. Coal - based production maintains high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based production is gradually restarting. Inland factories are in an inventory recovery cycle, and traditional downstream industries are in a seasonal off - season [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol spot - main futures basis in different regions, and the basis between methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong and the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][13] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding surcharges), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][30] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [32][39] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [36][43][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [47][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No rating for inter - period and cross - variety [4] Core Viewpoints - After the situation in Iran eased, the methanol futures price on the port has continuously corrected. The port inventory has started to decline, and the port basis has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the downstream MTO maintenance situation. Overseas, Iranian methanol plants are still undergoing winter maintenance [3]. - In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants maintain high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based plants are gradually restarting. Inland factories are in a period of continuous inventory increase, and the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures in this part display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] III. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It shows the total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol in China [6][33][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - The section presents the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions [2][6][36] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][52]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have ended a downward trend since July of the previous year and have entered an upward market in 2026, supported by low valuations, expectations of inventory reduction at ports, and geopolitical factors that have increased price volatility [1] Group 1: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Methanol port inventory has been in a seasonal accumulation cycle since May of the previous year, reaching a historical high in September, which has suppressed prices [2] - Due to the cold weather, Iranian methanol production facilities began to shut down in November 2025, leading to a significant reduction in methanol imports to China, which is expected to alleviate port inventory pressure [3] - As of January 15, 2026, coastal methanol inventory stands at 1.42 million tons, down approximately 220,000 tons from the peak in mid-November 2025, indicating a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 2: Price and Profitability Trends - Domestic methanol production is characterized by high supply and low profitability, with overall operating rates at 77.91% as of January 15, 2026, slightly down from the previous week but up year-on-year [4] - Production profits have significantly decreased, with coal-based methanol in Inner Mongolia showing a loss of 251.60 yuan/ton, a 17.79% decrease month-on-month, and similar declines observed in other regions [4] - The upward movement in methanol prices is constrained by rising raw material costs, particularly during the winter demand peak for coal and natural gas [4] Group 3: Downstream Demand and Market Sentiment - The operating rate of methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities has decreased to 80.75%, with several plants undergoing maintenance, indicating pressure on downstream demand for methanol [5] - Traditional downstream sectors such as formaldehyde and acetic acid are performing poorly, with overall operating rates at historically low levels, limiting demand support for methanol as the Spring Festival approaches [6] - The geopolitical situation, particularly tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, has raised concerns about methanol supply, further contributing to price volatility [3][6]

Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2026, new production capacity will largely have supporting downstream projects, leading to a slowdown in domestic production pressure. Seasonal maintenance will impact operating rates and output [1][18] - The demand for methanol will see significant growth from external purchases of methanol-to-olefins (MTO) units, with traditional downstream new capacity providing a certain demand increment for methanol [1][18] - The overall supply-demand balance for methanol may improve to some extent in 2026, despite facing import pressures in the second half of the year [1][18] Production Capacity Growth - As of November 2025, domestic methanol production capacity reached 108.045 million tons, an increase of approximately 5.18 million tons from the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [2] - Integrated projects are the main contributors to new capacity, with about 70% of the new capacity in 2025 being integrated projects supporting downstream applications like MTO and BDO [2] - The dominance of coal-based methanol production is expected to strengthen, with coal-based capacity projected to reach 85.97 million tons by 2025, accounting for 81.8% of total capacity [2] Production Trends - Methanol production in 2025 is expected to reach 101.83 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [6] - The average operating rate for coal-based methanol units is around 80%, showing a gradual increase, while natural gas-based units remain stable at approximately 49% [7] - The overall operating rate for the methanol industry was 85.74% as of November 2025, an increase of 2.10 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [7] Import Market Dynamics - China's methanol import market experienced a "V" shaped trend in 2025, with total imports expected to reach 14.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [8] - The growth in imports is influenced by multiple factors, including overseas supply and international logistics [8] - In 2026, methanol imports from Iran are expected to increase, while imports from Russia may also rise due to geopolitical factors [9] Downstream Demand - In 2025, the average weighted operating rate for downstream methanol industries was approximately 76%, a 3 percentage point increase from 2024 [10] - The methanol-to-olefins (MTO) sector remains the primary downstream consumer, accounting for about 50% of methanol demand [10] - The MTO industry is projected to continue its rapid growth in 2026, with an expected annual increase in capacity of 320,000 tons [12] Price Trends - Methanol prices are expected to exhibit seasonal fluctuations in 2026, with potential price recovery in the first half of the year due to lower import pressures, followed by a possible decline in the second half [1][18] - The overall price trend for 2026 is anticipated to show a stronger performance in the first half and a weaker performance in the second half, influenced by seasonal maintenance and import dynamics [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant price increases in certain chemical products such as butadiene and acrylonitrile, while others like sulfur and aluminum fluoride have seen substantial declines [1][2][4] - This week, the products with the largest price increases include butadiene (Shanghai Petrochemical, +10.09%), acrylonitrile (East China AN, +7.29%), and nitric acid (Anhui, +6.67%) [1][2] - Conversely, products with the largest price declines include liquid chlorine (East China, -21.55%), aluminum fluoride (Henan, -9.58%), and natural rubber (Malaysian No. 20 standard rubber SMR20, -4.68%) [2][4] Group 2 - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - It emphasizes investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high dividend yields [4] - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies like Jiangshan Co. (600389) and Xingfa Group (600141) in the glyphosate sector, and China Heartland Fertilizer as a key recommendation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term methanol investment will be mainly oscillating, supported by reduced imports and the expectation of tight supply - demand balance. High port inventory but increasing de - stocking expectations, stable coal prices providing cost support, and geopolitical sentiment enhancing market resilience. The core price range is expected to be 2200 - 2300 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This week, methanol supply contracted overall, affected by both import and domestic production adjustments. Import volume decreased significantly, and although domestic capacity utilization increased slightly, total output declined due to new maintenance and production cuts in some plants. Next period, supply is expected to recover as more plants plan to resume production and there will be fewer maintenance and production cuts. Different production processes have different operating rates, with coal - based methanol operation relatively stable and natural - gas - based processes fluctuating slightly [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand remained weak in the off - season, showing significant structural differentiation. Total consumption decreased slightly week - on - week, lacking an upward driver. The main downstream methanol - to - olefins (MTO) industry was mediocre, with regional differences in operating rates. Traditional downstream industries generally had weak demand, with most industries' loads declining. In the short term, the demand side will remain weak and needs the resumption of downstream plants, the release of terminal demand, or favorable policies [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory increased at a high level, and the pressure to reduce inventory has not been alleviated. Inland enterprise inventory has been increasing for four weeks, and port inventory also rose. Although the unloading of foreign vessels was smooth, the提货 volume in some warehouses decreased. Overall, the current inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction has eased but not fundamentally improved [2] Methanol Profit - This week, the profits of methanol and its downstream industrial chain showed obvious differentiation. Methanol - end profits improved slightly, while most downstream industries were still under pressure. The losses of coal - based and natural - gas - based methanol production processes narrowed, and only the profit of coke - oven - gas - based production decreased slightly but remained profitable. Most downstream industries saw increased losses, and only a few products like glacial acetic acid and MTBE had improved profits [2] Politics - This week, the political situation in Iran was tense both domestically and internationally. Domestically, there were sporadic demonstrations due to rising prices and currency depreciation, and the situation was gradually stabilizing. Internationally, the US and Israel were accused of interfering in Iran's internal affairs, and Iran's military, president, and permanent representative to the UN strongly responded [2] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, the strategy is "oscillating with a slight upward bias"; for arbitrage, it is to "wait and see". Key factors to watch include downstream demand, olefin procurement, spring maintenance, and geopolitics [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-07甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 4.西北CTO工厂甲醇外采。 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 2. 下半月港口预计到船集中； 1、基本面：委内瑞拉遇袭事件虽未直接推高原油期货，但仍带来短期风险溢价，提振市场情绪。然而，当前基本面支 撑不强。国内企业开工率稳在八成以上高位，且部分前期检修装置已回归，上游继续保持低库存销售策略，而冬季传统 下游需求跟进缓慢，部 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shandong Shengquan New Materials Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Shengquan Group, has received preliminary approval for an environmental impact assessment for its formaldehyde expansion project, which has an annual capacity of 260,000 tons and a total investment of 149 million yuan [1][3]. Group 2 - The "A-share Green Report" project aims to enhance the transparency of environmental information for listed companies, utilizing authoritative environmental regulatory data from 31 provinces and 337 cities [1]. - The project involves monitoring the environmental performance of listed companies and their subsidiaries, providing professional data analysis and insights, and regularly updating environmental risk rankings [1]. - The previous issue of the A-share Green Weekly Report indicated that four listed companies recently exposed environmental risks [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton. The market will be influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and fundamental reality. Although the Venezuela attack event has brought short - term risk premiums and boosted market sentiment, the current fundamental support is not strong. Domestic enterprise operating rates remain high, some downstream demand is slow, and port inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2605, the fundamentals show that although the Venezuela attack event has not directly pushed up crude oil futures, it has brought short - term risk premiums. However, the current fundamental support is weak. The domestic enterprise operating rate is stable above 80%, some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, and the upstream maintains a low - inventory sales strategy. The traditional downstream demand in winter is slow to follow up, and some downstream enterprises have shut down. The market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The basis shows that the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,245 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 for the 05 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has increased significantly by 113,200 tons to 1.1316 million tons, and the overall available methanol supply in coastal areas has increased by 39,300 tons to 634,400 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the methanol price will show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyae; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 693 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 258 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 2,247 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 321 US dollars/ton. The spot prices in different regions of China have changed to varying degrees, with Jiangsu rising by 1.74% to 2,220 yuan/ton, Shandong remaining unchanged at 2,310 yuan/ton, Hebei remaining unchanged at 2,055 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia rising by 2.64% to 1,848 yuan/ton, and Fujian rising by 1.13% to 2,235 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2,215 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous period. The basis is 5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous period. The import spread is 3 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period [8][9][11]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions have also changed, with East China remaining unchanged at 80.65%, Shandong dropping by 2.39% to 68.71%, Southwest dropping by 1.22% to 44.06%, and Northwest dropping by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports is 755,900 tons, an increase of 26,400 tons from the previous period, and the inventory in South China ports is 412,700 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or shutdown status. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling and other enterprises' devices are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses [57]. - **Foreign Device Maintenance**: Some foreign methanol production enterprises' devices are also in different operating states. For example, some Iranian enterprises' devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and some enterprises in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United States and other countries' devices are operating normally or have completed maintenance [58]. - **Olefin Device Maintenance**: Some olefin production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices are in synchronous maintenance, while some enterprises such as Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [59].