| 甲醇日评20251010: 高库存压制现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | 指标 | 2025/10/9 | 2025/9/30 | 变化值 | 要化值 | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | 元/吨 | MA01 | 2290.00 | 2328.00 | -38.00 | -1.63% | | 元/吨 | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 2346.00 | 2362.00 | -16.00 | -0.68% | | 元/吨 | (收盘价) MA09 | 2320.00 | 2329.00 | -9.00 | -0.39% | | 元/呼 | 太仓 | 2210.00 | 2237.50 | -27.50 | -1.23% | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2330.00 | 2340.00 | -10.00 | -0.43% | | 元/吨 | 广东 期现价格 | 2222.50 | 2250.00 | -27.50 | -1.22% | | | 甲醇观赏价格 及基差 | | | | | | 元/吨 | ...

8 服 热 导发 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | 设资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | ITC国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 醒教据 日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/09 | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/30 | 行情评述 | 指标 | 涨跌值 | 2025/09/29 | 晋城无烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | NY ZIF | 川渝液化气 | 3760.00 | 3760. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际天然气 | 11. 09 | 10.9 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250930:假期注意持仓风险 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/9/29 | 2025/9/26 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (絶对值) | (相对值) | | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2359.00 | 2355.00 | 4.00 | 0.17% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | | MA05 元/吨 | 2388.00 | 2384.00 | 4.00 | 0.17% | | | (收盘价) | | MA09 元/吨 | 2345.00 | 2343.00 | 2.00 | 0.09% | | | | | 太仓 元/呼 | 2250.00 | 2257.50 | -7.50 | -0.33% | | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2340.00 | 2340.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | | 广东 元/吨 | 2260.00 | 2265.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | ...

甲醇周报 （9.22 大越期货投资咨询部 -9.26 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 观点与策略 甲醇周评：临近长假交易逐步放淡，预计下周国内甲醇市场波动有限。内地方面，下游原料库存高位后 期采购预期缩量，且运力也缩紧，贸易商多离场观望。西北CTO工厂本周大量外采下，上游甲醇工厂库存不 多，节前也无排库需求。缺乏明显因素影响，预计节前内地甲醇清淡整理。港口方面，期货空头方面仍占上 风，预计节前甲醇市场价格或维持震荡调整；10月变量较大，重点是伊朗部分装置是否如期检修，装船量减 量及港口库存去库的程度，基本面边际改善下，关注港口市场炒作下的低多机会。 国内甲醇现货价格 | | 国内甲醇价格 （元/吨） | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful completion of the first phase of the 60,000 tons/year polyoxymethylene project by Tangshan Zhonghao Chemical Co., which includes a 240,000 tons/year formaldehyde facility, marking a significant advancement in the chemical industry in Tangshan [2]. - The project is located in the Tangshan Port Economic Development Zone, covering an area of 66 acres, with a total investment of approximately 128.699 million yuan and a construction period of 29 months [2]. - The project received approval for sea use in February, with an area of 9.7063 hectares designated for industrial use, allowing for land reclamation with a usage period of 50 years [2]. Group 2 - Kailuan Group, established in 1878, has transitioned into Kailuan Energy and Chemical Co., which focuses on power coal and washed coal, with a certified raw coal production capacity of 37.3 million tons and a refined coal output exceeding 6 million tons [2]. - The coal chemical industry of Kailuan includes over 200,000 tons of coal-based chemical products, such as methanol, polyoxymethylene, and adipic acid, spanning new energy, new materials, and fine chemicals [2]. - In April 2023, Kailuan Co. decided to increase its investment in Tangshan Zhonghao Chemical Co. by 82.686 million yuan to support the construction of a 40,000 tons/year nylon 66 project and the 60,000 tons/year polyoxymethylene project [2]. Group 3 - As of the end of 2024, China's polyoxymethylene (POM) production capacity is expected to exceed 800,000 tons/year, although some facilities, such as Tianjin Bohua Yongli's 40,000 tons/year plant, are currently offline [3]. - In February, a high-end polyoxymethylene new material project developed by China Chemical Hualu successfully produced qualified products, with performance indicators significantly surpassing similar products [3].

内地成交仍可 甲醇日报 | 2025-09-24 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤445元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润715元/吨（+15）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2080元/吨（+15），内蒙北线基差337元/吨（+20），内蒙南线2100元/吨（-70）；山东临沂2360元/吨（-5）， 鲁南基差217元/吨（+0）；河南2250元/吨（+20），河南基差107元/吨（+25）；河北2240元/吨（-70），河北基差157 元/吨（-65）。隆众内地工厂库存340480吨（-2080），西北工厂库存225500吨（+4200）；隆众内地工厂待发订单233776 吨（-16947），西北工厂待发订单115700吨（-20900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2240元/吨（-12），太仓基差-103元/吨（-7），CFR中国260美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-18元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2465元/吨；广东甲醇2250元/吨（-5），广东基差-93元/吨（+0）。隆众港口总库存1557770吨（+7440）， 江苏港口库存787000吨（-17000），浙江港口库存2 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests a trading strategy of "关注逢低做多机会" (pay attention to buying opportunities on dips), which implies a relatively positive view on potential long - term opportunities in the methanol market [1]. 2) Core View The methanol market has been experiencing weak and volatile trends recently due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which have suppressed the spot price. The port inventory increased last week, intensifying the inventory pressure. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. But considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also relatively small, the room for further decline is limited. With the arrival of the peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, the report recommends waiting and paying attention to subsequent buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2348.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/22 to 2343.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/23, a decrease of 0.21%; MA05 decreased from 2376.00 yuan/ton to 2375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%; MA09 increased from 2333.00 yuan/ton to 2337.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In most regions, spot prices showed a downward trend. For example, in Hubei, the price dropped from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.52%. However, in Guangdong, the price increased from 2250.00 yuan/ton to 2255.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Some coal prices increased slightly, such as the price of Ordos Q5500 coal, which rose from 530.00 yuan/ton to 535.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%. Most natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 407.40 yuan/ton to 394.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%; natural gas - based methanol profit decreased from - 362.00 yuan/ton to - 422.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 16.57% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Some downstream products' profits increased, such as MTBE, whose profit increased from 376.68 yuan/ton to 408.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.44%. However, some remained unchanged, like formaldehyde [1]. c) Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2339 yuan/ton, closed at 2343 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 465051 lots and an open interest of 967432, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Due to technical failures, a 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country reduced its load to 50%, and another 1.65 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. It is estimated that the loading volume at the port will decrease from late September to the end of the month [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and volatile [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On September 15 - 16, 2025, prices of most energy and chemical products remained stable. For example, the price of Jincheng anthracite was 900 yuan, Inner Mongolia steam coal was 630 yuan, and Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas was 3810 yuan. International natural gas decreased from 11.02 to 10.97, and Taicang methanol decreased from 2285 to 2280 yuan. Inner Mongolia methanol increased from 2120 to 2140 yuan [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased from 266,895 to 265,295, domestic operating rate decreased from 82.33 to 81.84, and international operating rate decreased from 72.02 to 69.72 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged at 347,083 and 1,427,655 respectively [1]. Demand - Order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 241,285. The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, and MTBE all remained unchanged [1]. Associated Product Prices - Among associated products, the price of acetic acid increased from 2370 to 2390 yuan, while the prices of formaldehyde (Shandong), dimethyl ether, methane chloride, and MTBE remained unchanged [1].

Core Viewpoint - Hami City is transforming its traditional energy structure by leveraging its coal resources to develop a modern coal chemical industry, aiming for high-value utilization and low-carbon development while ensuring energy security under the "dual carbon" goals [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Resource Utilization - Hami City is advancing the "coal-to-chemical" industry layout, transitioning from traditional energy output to modern coal chemical production, creating multiple industrial chains from coal [2][3]. - The city has established various industrial chains, including "coal-methanol-carboxylic acid, formaldehyde, polypropylene" and "coal-coke oil-fuel oil" [2]. - Hami's coal chemical industry added value increased by 17.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Projects - Hami is introducing significant projects, such as the world's first second-generation technology for direct coal liquefaction, expected to produce 4 million tons of oil annually by 2027 [3]. - The city is also developing a 1 million tons per year acetic acid project, which is the first of its kind in Xinjiang [4][5]. - Hami's coal-to-chemical projects are designed to maximize resource utilization and reduce environmental impact through advanced technologies [6][7]. Group 3: Circular Economy and Resource Efficiency - Hami is implementing a zero-discharge wastewater treatment project, achieving 100% recycling of industrial wastewater [6]. - The city is focusing on the circular utilization of coal resources, with projects like the 400,000 tons of ethylene glycol from waste gas, maximizing the use of low-value resources [7]. - The comprehensive energy conversion rate of coal processing in Hami exceeds 85%, indicating high efficiency in resource utilization [8]. Group 4: Coupling Development with Renewable Energy - Hami is exploring the coupling of traditional coal energy with renewable energy, with 67.8% of its installed power capacity coming from renewable sources [12]. - New coal chemical projects must source at least 50% of their electricity from green energy, significantly reducing production costs and carbon emissions [12]. - The integration of green hydrogen into coal chemical processes is being promoted, with companies planning to use wind and solar energy to produce hydrogen for chemical production [13][14]. Group 5: Talent and Research Development - Hami is establishing a research institute focused on the clean and efficient utilization of high-oil coal resources, enhancing its research capabilities [11]. - The city is also developing a vocational school to train skilled workers in the energy and chemical sectors, aligning education with industry needs [11]. - Collaborative efforts with universities and research institutions aim to foster innovation in coal chemical technologies [10].

Core Viewpoint - Hami City is transforming its traditional energy structure by developing a modern coal chemical industry, leveraging its abundant coal resources to achieve high-value utilization and contribute to national energy security under the "dual carbon" goals [2][3]. Group 1: Coal Resource Utilization - Hami City has a coal resource prediction of approximately 570.8 billion tons, accounting for one-third of Xinjiang's and one-eighth of China's total coal resources [2]. - The city is focusing on clean and efficient coal utilization, with the coal chemical industry’s added value increasing by 17.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2][3]. - Hami has established multiple industrial chains, including coal-to-methanol, coal-to-fuel oil, and coal-to-gas, with products such as methanol, liquefied natural gas, and ethylene glycol [3][4]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Projects - Hami is introducing significant projects, such as the first global coal-to-oil project using second-generation technology, expected to produce 4 million tons of oil annually by 2027 [4]. - The city is also developing a 1 million tons per year acetic acid project, which is the first of its kind in Xinjiang, aimed at alleviating the shortage of acetic acid in the northwest region [6]. - Hami is implementing a zero discharge project for industrial wastewater, achieving a 100% recycling rate for wastewater in the industrial park [7]. Group 3: Circular Economy and Resource Efficiency - Hami is promoting a circular economy by maximizing the utilization of by-products from coal processing, such as the innovative use of waste gas to produce ethylene glycol [9]. - The city is also focusing on the efficient use of coal resources, with plans for a project that can process over 10 million tons of coal annually [5][8]. - The comprehensive utilization of coal resources is expected to significantly enhance economic benefits, with potential returns being several times that of raw coal [10]. Group 4: Coupling Development with Renewable Energy - Hami is exploring the integration of traditional energy and renewable energy, with 67.8% of its installed power capacity coming from renewable sources [14]. - New coal chemical projects are required to source at least 50% of their electricity from green energy, which can reduce production costs and carbon emissions [14]. - The city is also developing a green hydrogen industry, utilizing wind and solar energy to produce hydrogen for coal chemical processes [15]. Group 5: Talent and Research Development - Hami is establishing a research institute focused on the clean and efficient utilization of high-oil coal, collaborating with universities and research institutions [12]. - The city is also investing in vocational training for skilled workers in the energy and chemical sectors to meet the industry's growing demands [13]. - Hami aims to become a significant hub for energy technology innovation, fostering collaboration between experts and enterprises [12].