8 服 热 导发 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 | | ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 蜈致 据 日报 期货从业号:F305427 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | 2025/07/11 | | 指标 | | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城大烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | 77 74 | 川渝液化气 | 4350.00 | 4350. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 11.64 | 11.72 | 0. 09 | | | | 太仓 | 2375.00 | 2380.00 | 5.00 | 昨 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250710: 择机做多MTO利润 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/7/9 2025/7/8 | | | | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2434.00 | 2420.00 | 14.00 | 0.58% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2347.00 | 13.00 | 0.55% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2372.00 | 2373.00 | -1.00 | -0.04% | | | | 太せ | 元/吨 | 2380.00 | 2405.00 | -25.00 | -1.04% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2275.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2415.00 | -15.00 | -0. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-10甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，短期尚有部分内地货源流入套利，且本周进口到货集中，库存或有累积风险，另随着伊朗装置 逐步恢复，后续进口量回升预期下，短期业者信心不足，不过伊朗中止与联合国核监督机构合作，宏观面尚存支撑，短 期港口甲醇多空博弈下震荡为主。内地方面，上游甲醇企业库存不多，加之近期产区甲醇装置集中检修，供应端并无压 力，对行情有一定支撑。但同时当前产业链利润多集中在甲醇，多数下游亏损严重尤其是MTO，成本转嫁困难，另外销 区下游用户原料库存在高位，产区甲醇价格经过上周反弹后，贸易商追涨情绪谨慎，且场内供应并无缺口，多空交 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-09甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，短期尚有部分内地货源流入套利，且本周进口到货集中，库存或有累积风险，另随着伊朗装置 逐步恢复，后续进口量回升预期下，短期业者信心不足，不过伊朗中止与联合国核监督机构合作，宏观面尚存支撑，短 期港口甲醇多空博弈下震荡为主。内地方面，上游甲醇企业库存不多，加之近期产区甲醇装置集中检修，供应端并无压 力，对行情有一定支撑。 ...

8 服 热 导发 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 蜈致据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F305427 | 2025/07/07 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | 指标 | | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城无烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | | 川渝液化气 | 4360.00 | 4360. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 11.23 | 1.35 | 0. 13 | | | | 太仓 | 2450.00 | 2430.00 | -20. ...

在枝江市姚家港化工园区，湖北山水化工有限公司(以下简称山水化工)的智能化生产车间内，离子膜烧 碱与医药中间体生产线正有条不紊地运转着。这家经历过两次搬迁的民营化工企业，如今已成为姚家港 化工园区循环经济的重要一环，其主导产品邻氯苯甲醛年产能位居国内首位，成功实现从传统氯碱化工 向精细化工的转型升级。 在产业升级的同时，山水化工还积极融入园区循环经济生态。企业与周边上下游企业建立起"原料互 供、能量共享"的协同网络：生产的烧碱、氯气、盐酸直接供应园区内企业，而园区集中供热系统的接 入，使山水化工蒸汽成本降低15%，同时减少了自建锅炉带来的污染物排放。这种"你中有我、我中有 你"的产业生态，不仅提升了资源利用效率，更增强了区域化工产业的整体竞争力。 在生产模式上，山水化工也完成了从"传统制造"到"智能绿色"的转变。井耀文介绍说："2007年第一次 搬迁时，我们引入了DCS；2020年新厂建成后，直接实现全流程自动化，人员定位、智能巡检等系统全 面覆盖，现场操作减少了80%，生产效率提升近3倍。" 此外，在安全环保方面，山水化工累计投入超8000万元，针对最大风险源液氯单元，打造了集密闭吸 收、泄漏监测、自动应急于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Coal and Gas**: The price of Jincheng anthracite is 900.00, Inner Mongolia steam coal is 630.00, Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas is 4330.00 (down 20.00 from the previous day), international natural gas is 12.00 (down 1.62 from the previous day) [1]. - **Methanol**: Spot prices in many places increased slightly. For example, the price in Taicang is 2620.00 (down 20.00 from the previous day), Inner Mongolia is 2060.00, and Shandong is 2260.00 (up 20.00 from the previous day). The domestic production is 292718.00 (down 1100.00 from the previous day), and the domestic operating rate is 91.27 (down 0.34 from the previous day) [1]. - **Formaldehyde**: The market shows mixed trends. The formaldehyde price in Shandong is 920.00, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Related Products**: Dimethyl ether price is 3450.00 (down 100.00 from the previous day), MTBE price is 5230.00 (down 120.00 from the previous day) [1]. Market Analysis - **Methanol Market**: In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories are at a low level. Downstream and traders have a stronger willingness to replenish at low prices, and the auction transaction prices of enterprises are rising. The positive sentiment in the futures market drives smooth transactions of new domestic orders in the afternoon, and some enterprises stop selling to support prices, pushing up the spot prices generally. However, downstream buyers are mainly on the sidelines, and after replenishing at low prices, their purchases become more rational [1]. - **Formaldehyde Market**: The raw material methanol has a slight correction, strengthening the cost - side support. But as the downstream enters the off - season, formaldehyde production enterprises face greater shipment pressure and adjust their shipment mechanisms according to their own inventory [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company is primarily engaged in the phosphate mining and chemical industry, nitrogen fertilizer, polyoxymethylene, and trade logistics, leveraging its phosphate resources for a full industrial chain operation in phosphate chemicals [1] Production Capacity - The company has a leading production capacity in its main products, with phosphate fertilizer capacity at 5.55 million tons/year, ranking second in China and fourth globally. The company’s diammonium phosphate market share is among the top in the domestic market [2] - The company’s urea production capacity is 2.6 million tons/year, with significant regional influence, particularly in Yunnan where it holds a 50% market share [2] - The company also has a compound fertilizer capacity of 1.85 million tons/year and leads in feed-grade calcium phosphate with a capacity of 500,000 tons/year, holding a 70% market share in the domestic MDCP consumption market [2] - Additionally, the company has a polyoxymethylene production capacity of 90,000 tons/year, with a 15% market share in the domestic market and 25% in the domestic polyoxymethylene market, ranking first in the country [2] Resource Advantages - The company benefits from phosphate mining resources, with phosphate prices expected to remain high due to strict mining policies and limited supply. The annual phosphate rock production is restricted to around 150 million tons, with actual production averaging about 100 million tons in recent years [3][4] - The company has phosphate reserves of nearly 800 million tons and an annual mining capacity of 14.5 million tons, providing a strong self-supply guarantee for phosphate products [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 46.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.34%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.42% to 4.42 billion yuan. The gross profit margin improved by 2.86 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s financial situation has improved significantly, with the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing from 89.13% in 2019 to 52.51% in the third quarter of 2024, and the financial expense ratio dropping from 4.35% to 0.83% [7] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated phosphate chemical industry chain and strong phosphate resource self-supply advantage, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 5.438 billion, 5.562 billion, and 5.778 billion yuan respectively [8]

化工行业周报（20250616-20250622） 本周甲醛、新加坡柴油、NYMEX 天然气、Brent 原油等产品涨幅居前 2025 年 06 月 23 日 化工周观点： ➢ 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。二季度即将结束，建议开始寻找二季度景气 度好，业绩有望超预期的标的，建议关注圣泉集团、海利得和卓越新能。首先是 和下游宏观经济相关性较弱，受益 AI 资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集 团是 AI 服务器中核心电子树脂的主要国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续 放量，公司业绩有望环比提升。其次是海外有工厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分 行业龙头，建议关注涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。然后是公司自身产能增长， 随着新项目新产品投产，业绩有望上一个台阶的卓越新能。 ➢ 磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的 出口指导具体情况如下：1、2025 年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在 5-9 月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。 3、2025 年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有 望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持 ...

审核：陈小国，从业资格号:F03100622，交易咨询号：Z0021111 甲醇供需概况 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货甲醇周报 高基差下，甲醇期货或偏强震荡 20250622 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计，本周，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存预计为34.76万吨，较本期或继续小幅去库；显性外轮卸货量预计环比增量， 加之多个内地区域至港口套利空间开启，部分下游采内地货源为主，进口表需将有所下降，预计港口甲醇库存或累库，关注外轮卸货 速度。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计，本周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量207.63万吨左右，产能利用率92.14%左右，较本期增加； 甲醇进口样本到港计划预估26.31万吨，其中显性25.31万吨，非显性1万吨；内贸预估2.5-3.0万吨附近。 ◆ 需求：据隆众资讯统计，本周，随着中煤蒙大烯烃检修陆续进行，以及华东地区烯烃企业可能出现的降负荷预期，烯烃行业开工被动 继续降低；二甲醚、氯化物、醋酸开工率提升，甲醛开工率下降。 ◆ ...