交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （8.18 大越期货投资咨询部 -8.22 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 观点与策略 甲醇周评：中国拟通过产业整顿解决石化产能过剩问题，政策面利好短期支撑业者情绪，但同时供需基 本面预期稍有转弱，多空交织预计下周国内甲醇呈震荡整理态势。内地方面，内地甲醇企业库存不多，以及 河南烯烃装置即将重启，短线来看内地供需相对平衡。但同时世林、新奥和易高甲醇装置在8月下旬均有重 启计划，内地开工有提升预期，且港口库存处于年内绝对高位水平，也对内地甲醇有一定牵制，下周内地甲 醇窄幅震荡运行。港口方面，区内主力烯烃装置暂无听闻有复产计划，同时港口库存逐步涨至年内高位，弱 需求和高库存现状压制港口市场。预计近期港口市场在强预期和弱现实下，维持涨跌皆有的高波动性和强联 动性局面。 国内甲醇现货价格 CO ...

甲醇期现货及其下游价格走势 | | 周总结 | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/15 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | MA2601 | 2405 | 2412 | - 7 | -0.29% | 元/吨 | | | 基差 | -110 | -87 | -23 | -26.44% | 元/吨 | | 价格 | 甲醇（太仓） | 2359.6 | 2378.2 | -18.60 | -0.78% | 元/吨 | | | 甲醇CFR | 260.33 | 267 | -6.67 | -2.50% | 美元/吨 | | 下游 | 甲醛（山东） | 1050 | 1052 | -2.00 | -0.19% | 元/吨 | | | 冰醋酸（江苏） | 2190 | 2202 | -12.00 | -0.54% | 元/吨 | | | 二甲醚（河南） | 3400 | 3400 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | MTBE（山东） | 5010 | 5056 | -46.00 | -0.91% ...

| | | | 设资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31号 | | ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 蜈致 据 日报 期货从业号:F305427 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | 2025/08/21 | | 指标 | | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城大烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | FV AN | 川渝液化气 | 4130.00 | 4140.00 | 10. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 10. 52 | 10.43 | -0. 09 | | | | 太仓 | 2270.00 | 2290.00 | 20. 00 | 昨日甲醇多地价格小幅上调。西北主 | | 肌喷价格 | 内蒙 | 2080. 00 | 2080. 00 | 0.00 | 产区企业库存低位,下游 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has led to a rebound in the prices of olefin derivatives, which in turn has driven up the methanol price. However, the current situation at the port remains weak, with port inventories continuing to rise and downstream MTO in the maintenance cycle. The centralized maintenance period for coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operating rate will increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. For the downstream, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season and is waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region, with Inner Mongolia North Line at 2070 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia South Line at 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi at 2345 yuan/ton (+11), etc. The inventory of inland factories has increased to 310,793 tons (+15,220), and the order backlog has decreased to 207,370 tons (-11,995) [1]. - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2305 yuan/ton (+25), CFR China is 259 US dollars/ton (-2). The total port inventory has increased to 1,075,960 tons (+54,160), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 83.12% (-0.77%). There are also various regional price differences [2]. II. Market Analysis The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has driven up the prices of olefin derivatives and methanol. But the port situation is weak, with rising inventories and MTO in maintenance. The coal - based methanol maintenance period is over, and the operating rate will increase. Inland factory inventories have rebounded, and downstream orders have decreased. Formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [3]. III. Strategy For single - side trading, inter - period trading, and cross - variety trading, the recommendation is to wait and see [4]. IV. Figures and Tables by Category - **Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure**: There are figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22]. - **Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit**: Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [6][26][30]. - **Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory**: Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [6][32][33]. - **Regional Price Differences**: Figures present price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [6][37][45]. - **Traditional Downstream Profits**: Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][50][55].

| | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 醒数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F305427 | 2025/08/19 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | 指标 | 晋城无烟煤 | 2025/08/15 900. 00 | 2025/08/18 900. 00 | 涨跌值 0. 00 | 行情评述 | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | 成本 | 川渝液化气 | 4265.00 | 4130.00 | -135.00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 10. 83 | 10.52 | -0. 31 | | | | 太仓 | 2310.00 | 2290.00 | -20. 00 | 昨日甲醇多地价格小幅上调。西北主 | | 现货价格 | 内蒙 | 2100.00 | 2080. 00 | -20.00 | 产区企业库存低位,下游及贸 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of a bearish macro - environment and a slight weakening of the methanol supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is expected to experience weak oscillations next week, with the possibility of local price drops. Inland, due to the pessimistic sentiment among industry players caused by the macro - situation and the lack of further positive factors on the demand side, long - term contract traders are more willing to sell. However, the tight inventory of methanol enterprises in inland areas, especially in production regions, will provide some support for prices. It is expected that the inland market will show a weakening and oscillating trend. In ports, the significant fluctuations of coking coal and coke have had a negative impact on the methanol futures and spot markets. The positive factors supporting the market have reversed. With the expected continuous increase in port inventory and the lack of demand from major downstream industries, the port market is expected to remain in an oscillating state, waiting for positive guidance from policies and news [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - In a bearish macro - environment and with slightly weakening supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is predicted to have a weak oscillation next week, with potential local price declines. Inland markets may weaken and oscillate, while port markets will likely oscillate and await positive news [5]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From August 8th to August 15th, the prices of methanol in different regions showed different trends. In Jiangsu, the price dropped from 2380 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%. In Lunan, the price remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton. In Hebei, the price increased from 2275 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. In Inner Mongolia, the price fluctuated slightly, with a weekly increase of 0.24%. In Fujian, the price dropped from 2395 yuan/ton to 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% [6]. Methanol Basis - From August 8th to August 15th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 2.31%, while the futures price increased by 1.22%. The basis changed from - 3 yuan/ton to - 87 yuan/ton [8]. Methanol Production Profits by Process - For coal - based methanol production, the profit decreased from 265 yuan/ton on August 8th to 248 yuan/ton on August 15th, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. For natural - gas - based methanol production, the profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton. For coke - oven - gas - based methanol production, the profit increased from 460 yuan/ton on August 8th to 470 yuan/ton on August 15th, an increase of 325 yuan/ton (this may be a data error in the report, assuming it should be an increase of 10 yuan/ton) [10]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. In the northwest region, the load decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% [12]. Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From August 8th to August 15th, the CFR China price decreased from 270 dollars/ton to 264 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The CFR Southeast Asia price decreased from 333.5 dollars/ton to 324.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.70%. The price spread between CFR Southeast Asia and CFR China changed from - 63.5 dollars/ton to - 60.5 dollars/ton [15]. Methanol Import Spread - From August 8th to August 15th, the spot price of methanol decreased by 2.31%, the import cost decreased by 2.14%, and the import spread changed from - 4 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton [18]. Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From August 8th to August 15th, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged, with a weekly change of 0.00% [25]. Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased from - 202 yuan/ton to - 214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The load increased from 24.52% last week to 25.42% this week, an increase of 0.90% [26]. - Dimethyl Ether: The production profit decreased from 320 yuan/ton to 284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The load increased from 8.06% last week to 8.88% this week, an increase of 0.82% [28]. - Acetic Acid: The production profit increased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The load increased from 80.48% last week to 82.42% this week, an increase of 1.94% [34]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from - 916 yuan/ton on August 8th to - 740 yuan/ton on August 15th, with an increase of 176 yuan/ton. The MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69%, a decrease of 0.15% [38]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 51.08 to 56.33, an increase of 5.25. In the South China port, the inventory increased from 29.25 to 32.78, an increase of 3.53 [39]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From August 8th to August 15th, the number of warehouse receipts increased from 8688 to 10968, a growth of 26.24%. The effective forecast decreased from 1100 to 0, a decrease of 100.00% [43]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol enterprises are in the process of maintenance or have maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (100,000 - ton annual capacity, coke - oven gas as raw material) started maintenance in early November 2024 and the end date is to be determined; Qinghai Zhonghao (600,000 - ton annual capacity, natural gas as raw material) has been under maintenance from October 23, 2024, to the end of March 2025 [45]. Overseas Methanol Device Status - Many overseas methanol devices are in different operating states. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, such as Marjan, Kaveh, etc. Some devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally [46]. Olefin Device Status - Some olefin devices and their supporting methanol devices are under maintenance or operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices have been under maintenance since March 15th, expected to last for 45 days. Some devices in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and other regions are operating stably [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-15甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：国内甲醇市场预期区域性差异明显，需关注内地与港口套利是否开启。内地方面，近前期停车甲醇装置集 中恢复，内地供应增加，但内地企业低库存基础之上，叠加西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需紧平衡的格局延续。但同 时传统需求淡季，不利于成本传导，对行情有一定限制，预计本周内地震荡偏强运行。而港口供需矛盾预期明显，伊朗 装船发运较为集中且港 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol has not changed significantly, and the basis is weakly consolidating. The port is experiencing inventory accumulation, with the basis continuing to be weak, while the inland is stronger than the port. The overall pattern is that the inland market is more robust [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA09 - 01) [6][10][23] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the profit situation of methanol production (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][31] 3.3 Methanol开工, Inventory - Data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P开工 rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol开工 rate (including integrated units) are presented [34][36] 3.4 Regional Spreads - The report provides information on regional price differences, such as the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Northwest, Taicang - Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong - East China [38][49] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde production profit, Jiangsu acetic acid production profit, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification production profit, and Henan dimethyl ether production profit [54][56] 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] - **Inter - period**: For the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread, conduct a reverse spread when the spread is high [3] - **Cross - variety**: When the spread is high, reduce the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - Methanol overseas operating rates remain high, with significant subsequent arrival pressure. Xingxing MTO's maintenance for one month and MTO's route change due to maintenance have pushed up Jiangsu port inventories, keeping the port market weak. Inland coal - based methanol operating rates are still low but will gradually recover in early August. Traditional downstream demand shows some resilience, with inland factory inventories decreasing again, resulting in a stronger inland market compared to the port [2]. - The overall situation is an inland - strong and port - weak pattern [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and basis between different regions' spot and main futures [6][8][10]. - It also shows inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05 futures contracts, 05 and 09 futures contracts, and 09 and 01 futures contracts [21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][29][30]. 3. Methanol Operating Rates and Inventories - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences such as between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, and other regional combinations [37][47][49]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][57]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. For example, the price in Shandong rose from 2290.00 to 2295.00, while the price in Taicang dropped from 2400.00 to 2385.00. Other regions like Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - Among关联品 (related products), the price of methane chloride increased from 2060.00 to 2110.00, and MTBE increased from 5000.00 to 5030.00 [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 276685.00 to 277085.00, and the domestic operating rate rose from 85.66 to 85.78. International operating rate remained at 69.71 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 339830.00 and 725800.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 244832.00. The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, MTBE, etc. remained mostly unchanged [1]. - The formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. With a slight adjustment in raw material methanol, cost - side support strengthened. However, formaldehyde producers faced greater shipping pressure as the downstream entered the off - season [1].