8 服 热 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 醒致据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F305427 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | 2025/11/18 | | 指标 | | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/17 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城大烟煤 | 930. 00 | 930. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | NAZE | 川渝液化气 | 4080. 00 | 4040. 00 | -40. 00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 10. 79 | 10.99 | 0. 20 | | | | 太仓 | 2030.00 | 2005.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, indicating that the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall, while the port market is expected to maintain high volatility with both upward and downward movements this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2,220 - 2,275 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the MA2601 contract, the mainland has support from low upstream factory inventory, strong coal prices, and low methanol prices in production areas, but there is also supply pressure in some areas, negative feedback from olefin plants, and high port inventory. The port market is affected by the sanctions event, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals, and is expected to be highly volatile. The overall market is rated as neutral. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas also decreased, both being bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The net position of the main holders is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and futures prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.78% week - on - week, and the futures price decreased by 1.53% week - on - week. The basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [9][11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia decreased by 95 yuan/ton week - on - week, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol in the northwest decreased by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week [21]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the operating rate in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 3.02 million tons to 78.71 million tons, and the inventory in South China ports decreased by 1.93 million tons to 48.27 million tons [8]. - **External market prices**: The CFR price in China decreased by 0.76% week - on - week, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia decreased by 0.61% week - on - week. The price difference remained unchanged [25]. - **Downstream product prices and profits**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged. The profit of formaldehyde production increased by 9 yuan/ton, the profit of dimethyl ether production increased by 28 yuan/ton, and the profit of acetic acid production increased by 22 yuan/ton. The MTO device profit increased by 128 yuan/ton, and the MTO load increased by 0.15% [31][36][39][43][48]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or reduced load, including those in the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are in shutdown or maintenance states [57]. - **Overseas methanol plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, such as some are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are under maintenance [58]. - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, and Ningxia Baofeng is operating stably [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating for the methanol industry in the short - term, with an "Oscillating" investment view [2] Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a supply - demand game pattern. Supply is under pressure with high domestic capacity utilization and rising port inventories. Demand is differentiated, with weak traditional demand and a decline in MTO开工率. Cost support is weak, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Key variables such as import volume, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends need to be focused on [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The overall domestic methanol operating load this week was 75.85%, down from last week but slightly up from the same period last year. The decline in the national operating load was mainly affected by the northwest and north China regions. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China also decreased month - on - month, and overall production decreased due to more maintenance and production - cut devices and fewer previously restored devices [2] Demand - **Products with increased operating load**: Ice acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde had a slight increase in operating load [2] - **Products with decreased operating load**: Methanol - to - olefins (CTO/MTO), methane chloride, formaldehyde (in some statistical dimensions), and dimethyl ether (in some statistical dimensions) saw a decline in operating load [2] - **Products with stable operating load**: DMF and methylal had stable operating loads compared to last week [2] Inventory - **Inland inventory**: Inland inventory was 36.04 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period and a 19.26% year - on - year decrease. There was significant regional differentiation. Northwest and central China had a slight reduction in inventory, while east, north, and southwest China saw inventory accumulation. The pending order was 21.57 tons, a 5.79% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the next - period inventory may drop to 34.13 tons [2] - **Port inventory**: The domestic methanol port inventory was 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton month - on - month increase and a 36.39% year - on - year increase. East China's inventory increased by 3 tons, while south China's decreased by 0.92 tons. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate, putting downward pressure on the market [2] Profit - Domestic methanol profits were generally poor, with most of the main process profits shrinking or remaining in the red. Coal - to - methanol profits weakened significantly, coke - oven gas - to - methanol profits decreased month - on - month, and natural - gas - to - methanol remained in the red. The industrial chain profits also moved downwards, with most downstream industries in production losses [2] Macro and Geopolitics - The US Treasury official Scott Bessent completed trade negotiations with China, indicating that a successful framework had been reached for leaders to discuss. There were also issues with port unloading, which had an impact on the market [2] Investment Views - The methanol market is in a supply - demand game. Short - term market may continue to be under pressure. Focus on core variables such as import volume changes, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends [2] Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Arbitrage**: Go long on MA1 - 5 spread [2]

Market Performance - A-shares showed a slight increase before the National Day holiday and a mixed performance afterward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.43% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.40% from September 29 to September 30, while experiencing a small rise of 0.37% from October 9 to October 10 [1] - During the four working days from September 29 to October 10, 105 listed companies received institutional research, with approximately 60% of the stocks achieving positive returns, led by Deep Technology with a 29.68% increase [1] Company Research Highlights - **首创环保 (Beijing Enterprises Water Group)**: Received 119 institutional research visits, focusing on the expiration of concession periods for existing heavy asset projects and risk mitigation strategies. The company plans to extend concession periods through measures like offsetting receivables and participating in urban renewal projects [2][3] - **九丰能源 (Jiu Feng Energy)**: Engaged 110 institutions, with a focus on the progress and expected benefits of its second-phase project. The company announced an investment of up to 34.55 billion yuan for a coal-to-natural gas project, maintaining a conservative approach in cost and revenue predictions [4] - **晶晨股份 (Amlogic)**: Also received 110 institutional visits, with inquiries about AI technology applications and R&D investments. The company reported 19 commercial chips with self-developed AI capabilities and plans to continue high-intensity R&D in AI-related fields [5] - **华峰测控 (Huafeng Measurement Control)**: Welcomed 81 institutional visits, with a focus on order structure and market outlook. The company expects continued growth in the semiconductor industry, driven by demand in data centers and power devices, projecting a positive market trend for the second half of the year [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The high inventory suppresses the spot price of methanol. In the short - term, the methanol price may be weakly volatile. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - MA01 decreased from 2328.00 yuan/ton on September 30, 2025, to 2290.00 yuan/ton on October 9, 2025, a decrease of 1.63%. MA05 decreased from 2362.00 yuan/ton to 2346.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. MA09 decreased from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - Among spot prices, prices in most regions decreased, except for Hubei which increased by 1.28% from 2340.00 yuan/ton to 2370.00 yuan/ton [1] 2. Methanol Basis and Related Prices - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 90.50 yuan/ton to - 80.00 yuan/ton [1] - Coal and natural gas prices were relatively stable, with slight decreases in some coal prices and no change in industrial natural gas prices [1] 3. Methanol Profit Situation - Coal - made methanol profit decreased from 334.80 yuan/ton to 324.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99%. Natural gas - made methanol profit remained unchanged at - 422.00 yuan/ton [1] - MTO profit in the Northwest decreased by 55.86% from - 58.00 yuan/ton to - 90.40 yuan/ton, and in the East by 0.76% from - 590.07 yuan/ton to - 594.57 yuan/ton [1] - Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid increased by 0.96%, MTBE by 4.94%, formaldehyde by 1.83%, and dimethyl ether by 4.29% [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fell, opening at 2321 yuan/ton, closing at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 545,698 lots and open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign information: In a Middle - Eastern country, two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons restarted. Currently, all plants are operating, with only a few at low loads. The daily output is gradually increasing. The overall loading volume is around 243,000 tons, a decrease compared to the same period last month [1] 5. Market Logic and Strategy - Market logic: During the holiday, the methanol spot price dropped. High imports and blocked freight during the holiday led to high port inventory and supply pressure. The downstream's short - term restocking power was insufficient before the holiday, and the traditional downstream peak season is ending. The supply side's drive should be focused on in the fourth quarter [1] - Trading strategy: Wait and see [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions Review - On September 30, 2025, the prices of some energy and chemical products remained unchanged, such as the price of Jincheng anthracite at 900.00, Inner Mongolia steam coal at 630.00, and Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas at 3760.00. The price of international natural gas decreased from 10.96 to 11.09, a decrease of 0.13. The prices of methanol in many places increased slightly. The inventory of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest was at a low level, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, driving up the auction transaction prices. The futures market sentiment was positive, which promoted the smooth transaction of new domestic orders in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot prices [1]. Formaldehyde Market - The formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. The raw material methanol adjusted slightly, strengthening the cost - side support. Under the condition that the downstream was gradually entering the off - season of demand, formaldehyde production enterprises faced great pressure in shipment and adjusted their shipment mechanisms according to their own inventory. The demand side made flexible purchases based on rigid needs [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Domestic production was 275,675.00, an increase of 2,350.00 compared with the previous day. The domestic start - up rate was 84.32, a decrease of 0.72. The international start - up rate was 65.44, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Demand**: The order backlog was 273,022.00, unchanged from the previous day. The MTO start - up rate was 88.18, unchanged; the dimethyl ether start - up rate was 7.20, unchanged; the formaldehyde start - up rate was 44.71, unchanged; the wax dewaxing start - up rate was 78.97, unchanged; the chloride start - up rate was 87.54, unchanged; the MTBE start - up rate was 64.23, unchanged [1]. Associated Product Prices - The prices of associated products such as formaldehyde (Shandong) at 970.00, dimethyl ether at 3400.00, hydrochloric acid at 2450.00, methane chloride at 1680.00, and MTBE at 5050.00 remained unchanged [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the long holiday, trading in the domestic methanol market gradually weakened, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will have limited fluctuations next week. Inland, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, and the procurement volume is expected to shrink in the later period, with tightened transportation capacity and most traders staying on the sidelines. With large - scale external procurement by CTO plants in the northwest this week, upstream methanol plants have little inventory and no need to destock before the holiday. Without obvious influencing factors, the inland methanol market is expected to have a quiet consolidation before the holiday. In the port area, the short side of the futures still has the upper hand, and the methanol market price is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment before the holiday. There are many variables in October, mainly focusing on whether some Iranian plants will be shut down for maintenance as scheduled, the reduction in shipping volume, and the degree of inventory reduction at ports. With marginal improvement in fundamentals, pay attention to low - buying opportunities in the port market under speculation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - Near the long holiday, trading in the domestic methanol market gradually weakened, with limited fluctuations expected next week. Inland, downstream procurement is expected to shrink and transportation capacity is tight. Northwest CTO plants' large - scale procurement keeps upstream inventory low. The inland market is expected to consolidate quietly before the holiday. In the port area, the futures short side dominates, with prices expected to fluctuate. In October, focus on Iranian plant maintenance, shipping volume, and port inventory reduction, and look for low - buying opportunities [5]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From September 19th to September 26th, the prices in different regions had different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.13%, Hebei decreased by 2.81%, and Fujian decreased by 0.65%, while the prices in Shandong (Lunan) and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [6]. Methanol Basis - From September 19th to September 26th, the spot price decreased by 0.13%, the futures price decreased by 0.25%, and the basis increased by 3 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 15, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit decreased by 327 [11]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices remained unchanged, and the spread also had little change [16]. Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased by 0.03%, and the import spread decreased by 4 [19]. Traditional Methanol Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from September 19th to September 26th [26]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 29, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% [27]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 92, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% [29]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 2, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% [34]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 10, and the load decreased by 0.15% to 79.69% [38]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased by 2.78, and in the South China port, it decreased by 3.39 [39]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased by 14.56% to 11332, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% to 0 [44]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, planned maintenance, or experiencing production reduction. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding production losses [47]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Some overseas methanol plants are in different operation states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and some plants in other countries are also in normal operation, maintenance, or shutdown states [48]. Olefin Plant Operation - Different olefin plants in various regions have different operation states. Some are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some are in the process of starting up or shutting down. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is in maintenance, while some plants in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions are operating stably [49].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and volatile [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On September 15 - 16, 2025, prices of most energy and chemical products remained stable. For example, the price of Jincheng anthracite was 900 yuan, Inner Mongolia steam coal was 630 yuan, and Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas was 3810 yuan. International natural gas decreased from 11.02 to 10.97, and Taicang methanol decreased from 2285 to 2280 yuan. Inner Mongolia methanol increased from 2120 to 2140 yuan [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased from 266,895 to 265,295, domestic operating rate decreased from 82.33 to 81.84, and international operating rate decreased from 72.02 to 69.72 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged at 347,083 and 1,427,655 respectively [1]. Demand - Order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 241,285. The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, and MTBE all remained unchanged [1]. Associated Product Prices - Among associated products, the price of acetic acid increased from 2370 to 2390 yuan, while the prices of formaldehyde (Shandong), dimethyl ether, methane chloride, and MTBE remained unchanged [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Materials, Sinopec, Ju Hua, Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun, Dao Tong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as Epoxy Chloropropane (up 10.00%), Synthetic Ammonia (up 4.35%), and others, while products like Urea and Sulfur experienced notable declines [4][5][21]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and fluctuating international oil prices are influencing market dynamics, with a recommendation to focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks [6][22]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [23]. Summary by Sections Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in Epoxy Chloropropane (10.00%), Sulfur (4.59%), and Synthetic Ammonia (4.35), while Urea saw a decrease of 8.47% [4][5][21]. - The report notes that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across different sub-sectors [22][23]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors likely to enter a growth cycle, such as Glyphosate, and emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential [23]. - It highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sub-products, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng, Xin Yang Feng, and others for their stable demand [23]. Geopolitical and Economic Context - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, with Brent crude oil priced at $66.99 per barrel and WTI at $62.69, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [6][24]. - It anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize between $65 and $70, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [6][24].

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of a former chemical plant site in Nanjing into a new high-end optical materials project highlights the importance of environmental remediation alongside industrial redevelopment [1][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Nanjing Chengzhi High-end Optical Materials Project involves an investment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan, aiming to produce 100,000 tons of PMMA annually, with completion expected by 2027 [1]. - The project will provide essential raw materials for sectors such as display panels and optical lenses [1]. Group 2: Historical Context - The previous chemical enterprise had a registered capital of 430 million yuan and total investments of 2 billion yuan, but it fell into decline due to market fluctuations and poor management, ultimately being classified as a "zombie enterprise" by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1]. - The company was declared bankrupt in July 2022, leading to a court-ordered liquidation process [1]. Group 3: Environmental Challenges - During the liquidation process, significant environmental hazards were discovered, including improperly stored hazardous chemicals and potential pollution risks from unprocessed wastewater [2][3]. - The court faced challenges in ensuring environmental safety while managing the liquidation, leading to a decision to pursue simultaneous pollution remediation and asset liquidation [2][3]. Group 4: Remediation Efforts - A comprehensive plan was developed involving collaboration with local environmental authorities to address hazardous waste disposal and equipment dismantling [3]. - Initial funding of 13.5 million yuan was secured from investors to facilitate the cleanup of hazardous materials [3]. Group 5: Successful Outcomes - The remediation and dismantling process took nearly two years, resulting in the safe disposal of 1,750 tons of hazardous waste and the generation of 42.13 million yuan from asset liquidation [4]. - The site has transitioned from a "pollution pit" to a "green highland," with full debt repayment for employees achieved [4].