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甲醇日报:MTO检修,港口仍有累库压力-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:01
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Methanol overseas operating rate remains high, with significant future arrival pressure. The MTO maintenance of Xingxing is gradually being implemented, and it's still in an inventory accumulation cycle. However, coking coal still has an impact on coal - chemical industry. In the inland area, coal - based methanol has undergone concentrated maintenance but will gradually resume in early August. The traditional downstream is in a mixed situation, with formaldehyde in a seasonal off - season, while MTBE and acetic acid operations still show some resilience. The inland demand is strong, and the inventory of inland methanol plants has decreased again, presenting a pattern where the inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang and other regions compared to the main futures contract, as well as inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][7][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][25][30]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) are presented in the figures [6][33][34]. IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate regional price differences such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and South Shandong, and other regional combinations [6][38][45]. V. Traditional Downstream Profit - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][55]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when it is high [4].