Core Viewpoint - Since the end of July, domestic methanol futures prices have been continuously declining, with the 2601 contract dropping below 2000 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level since October 2020. The decline is primarily due to increased imports and high port inventories, which are expected to persist into the first quarter of next year [1][5]. Group 1: Domestic Supply and Inventory - Domestic operating rates remain high, with a current operating rate of 76.5% as of November 14, 2023. The coal-based methanol operating rate is at 82.5%, while natural gas-based and coke oven gas-based rates are at 50.6% and 59.4%, respectively. There are few domestic maintenance activities, but some natural gas-based facilities may undergo maintenance starting late November [2]. - Port inventories have surged to over 1.6 million tons, the highest level in recent years, driven by continuous imports since June. The expected import volumes for November and December suggest that inventory reduction is unlikely until at least 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Profit Margins - Upstream profits have been significantly compressed due to rising coal prices since September, which have increased production costs for coal-based methanol. Despite this, methanol prices have fallen, leading to some regions experiencing profits dropping below breakeven levels [4]. - Conversely, downstream profits have begun to recover, particularly in the olefins sector, where profits have rebounded to their highest levels of the year following the decline in methanol prices. Traditional downstream profits are also improving, although they are expected to remain at historically low levels in 2024 and 2025 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent acceleration in methanol price declines is attributed to increased imports and sustained high port inventories, which are expected to limit price recovery. If Iranian methanol facilities begin to shut down as planned at the end of November, import pressures may ease, but high inventories will continue to suppress prices into 2025 [5][6].

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-20 港口回流内地，港口库存高位回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润573元/吨（+10）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1978元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差565元/吨（+27），内蒙南线1920元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2140元/吨（+0）， 鲁南基差327元/吨（+17）；河南2000元/吨（-15），河南基差187元/吨（+2）；河北2075元/吨（+0），河北基差322 元/吨（+17）。隆众内地工厂库存358700吨（-10550），西北工厂库存188500吨（-17000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 246320吨（+920），西北工厂待发订单125400吨（+8900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇1997元/吨（-5），太仓基差-16元/吨（+12），CFR中国234美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-46元/ 吨（-10），常州甲醇2235元/吨；广东甲醇1990元/吨（-20），广东基差-23元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存1479340吨 （-64260），江苏港口库存819300吨（-17300） ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-19 港口表现疲软，现实库存压力大 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润563元/吨（+8）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1968元/吨（+8），内蒙北线基差538元/吨（+7），内蒙南线1920元/吨（-40）；山东临沂2140元/吨（+0），鲁 南基差310元/吨（-1）；河南2015元/吨（-5），河南基差185元/吨（-6）；河北2075元/吨（-15），河北基差305元/吨（-16）。 隆众内地工厂库存369250吨（-17160），西北工厂库存205500吨（-27000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单245400吨（+24307）， 西北工厂待发订单116500吨（-8000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2002元/吨（-10），太仓基差-28元/吨（-11），CFR中国234美元/吨（-5），华东进口价差-36元/ 吨（-4），常州甲醇2230元/吨；广东甲醇2010元/吨（-5），广东基差-20元/吨（-6）。隆众港口总库存1543600吨（+56500）， 江苏港口库存836600吨（+45100），浙江 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical products sector, particularly methanol, has been the weakest performer in the domestic commodity market over the past two months, with methanol futures contracts experiencing a continuous decline and reaching a new low since July 2023 [1] Group 1: Supply and Inventory - High inventory pressure is the main reason for the continuous decline in methanol prices, with port inventories reaching multi-year highs [2] - As of November 13, China's methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, with port inventory totaling 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous week [2] - The supply pressure is expected to increase as domestic methanol production facilities resume operations and import shipments arrive, particularly in the East China region [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Demand from traditional downstream sectors is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, leading to reduced procurement of raw materials [2] - The profitability of the polyolefin sector remains under pressure, which may further lower operational rates and reduce demand for methanol [2] - Despite no significant drop in pre-sale orders from methanol companies, year-on-year demand remains weak, especially with cautious purchasing from inland regions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that the weak methanol market is likely to continue due to high inventory levels and insufficient demand [3] - The ability for methanol prices to rebound will depend on inventory changes and production facility adjustments [3] - In the short term, the methanol market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with a focus on monitoring port inventory changes and the operational status of MTO enterprises [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has further accumulated to a historical high. In November, the arrival pressure remains high. The delayed announcement of winter maintenance in Iran is the main driver of the recent decline in methanol prices. There are now expectations of Iranian plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iranian winter maintenance has regained optimism [2]. - Inland inventory has rebounded again. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. Coal - based methanol production has further increased in November, and inland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. Inland MTO demand has declined, and attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Traditional downstream industries are also under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][11] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows figures on the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, among others [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - It includes figures on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate, the inland factory sample inventory, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [33][34][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides figures on price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and the price difference between Taicang and southern Shandong [38][44][46] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - It shows figures on the production gross profit of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [45][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The port inventory of methanol remains high, and the expected reduction in arrivals due to previous Iran sanctions has not materialized. The delay in Iran's winter maintenance announcement is the main driver of the methanol price decline. Recently, there are expectations of Iran's plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iran's winter maintenance has warmed up [3]. - The inventory in the inland region has rebounded again. The mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol production rate has further increased in November, and the inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand for inland MTO has decreased, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Overall, the inland region is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis vs. methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [7][21][23] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][26][34] 3. Methanol Production Rate, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated ones) is presented through figures [35][37][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][50][53] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [51][57] Market News and Important Data Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 560 yuan/ton (+13). Inner Mongolia north - line methanol is 1965 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 424 yuan/ton (-14); Inner Mongolia south - line methanol is 1950 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi methanol is 2170 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 229 yuan/ton (-16); Henan methanol is 2020 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 79 yuan/ton (-36); Hebei methanol is 2075 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 194 yuan/ton (-36). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 386,410 tons (+10,350), and the northwest factory inventory is 232,500 tons (+1,200). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 221,093 tons (+5,535), and the northwest factory pending orders are 124,500 tons (+10,900) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2082 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 59 yuan/ton (-26); CFR China is 241 US dollars/ton (-3), and the East China import price difference is - 31 yuan/ton (+2). Changzhou methanol is 2275 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2107 yuan/ton (+2), with a basis of - 34 yuan/ton (-24). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,517,100 tons (+10,630), Jiangsu port inventory is 821,500 tons (-2,800), Zhejiang port inventory is 200,000 tons (+27,000), and Guangdong port inventory is 297,000 tons (-7,000). The downstream MTO production rate is 90.19% (-0.24%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 90 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 433 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 338 yuan/ton (-10); the Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 12 yuan/ton (+10); the Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 155 yuan/ton (+2); the East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 283 yuan/ton (+25) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is currently in a weak and volatile state. Although there has been a slight reduction in port inventory, the market is still constrained by high inventory levels, and the fundamental improvement is not significant. There is significant supply pressure, and the impact of potential winter gas restrictions in Iran on production and the timing are uncertain. Given the high inventory and potential positive factors such as winter gas restrictions, an overly bearish view is not advisable. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices have continued to decline recently, with recent basis quotes around 01 - 45 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for November paper goods at 01 - 5 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis of Each Contract**: The basis quotes for methanol have strengthened this week, with the basis quote for November paper goods around 01 - 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis of Each Region**: Coastal basis has fluctuated, and inland basis has also been volatile. The inland market prices, especially those in the northwest region, have fluctuated this week [22][31]. - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions has weakened. The current spread is still in a reverse - arbitrage trend. The PP - 3MA spread has weakened this week, and attention can be paid to potential opportunities to short PP and long MA in the future [40][49][55]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - **Production and Operation**: Recently, there have been many newly - added maintenance devices, and the methanol operating rate is slightly lower than last year. As maintenance devices gradually resume production, methanol production has increased slightly [60][64]. - **Downstream Operation**: The dimethyl ether operating rate has fluctuated, the formaldehyde operating rate has rebounded, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest has been high and volatile, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins devices has fluctuated this week, and MTO profits have slightly increased [69][72][75]. 4. Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although there is high inventory pressure, there are also positive factors such as potential winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port basis of methanol is still weak, with high port inventory pressure. The attitude of methanol warehousing enterprises and downstream towards Iranian ships may be affected by the sanctions on Russian oil by Europe and the United States. There are more short - term temporary overhauls in Iran, but the winter overhaul plan has not been announced. Coal - based methanol production in the inland has increased in November, and inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand from inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [2][3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc., and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). All data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][33] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations). Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [40][49][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On the port side, the port inventory rebounded on Thursday. Geopolitical conflicts have brought risks to Iranian cargoes, and the willingness of mainstream warehouses and downstream enterprises to receive Iranian ships may be affected, but there has been no obvious decrease in arrivals yet. The Marjan in Iran had a temporary technical shutdown, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter inspection plan [2]. - On the inland side, the coal - based methanol operation rate has significantly increased from the previous bottom, and the inland inventory has continued to build up from a low level. The operation rates of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE are low [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][34]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Data shows the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [6][36][38]. 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and Lunan, etc. [6][40][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][57][59]. Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. - For inter - period trading, it is advisable to go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - For cross - variety trading, it is recommended to short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the week, the inland methanol price continued to decline. The market focus at the port is still on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. The port's basis has risen rapidly this week, and the actual port inventory pressure persists. The coal - based methanol operating rate inland has bottomed out and is expected to further increase by the end of October, with inland inventory gradually rebuilding from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have low operating rates, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, leading to a further decline in inland prices [1][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][33] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - There are charts about methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [6][34][35] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences like the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc [6][38][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][51][54] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]