甲醇日报 | 2026-02-27 港口仍等待去库周期开启 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润325元/吨（-38）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1830元/吨（-38），内蒙北线基差220元/吨（+2），内蒙南线1850元/吨（-10）；山东临沂2175元/吨（-18），鲁 南基差165元/吨（+22）；河南2030元/吨（-20），河南基差20元/吨（+19）；河北2075元/吨（+20），河北基差125元/ 吨（+59）。隆众内地工厂库存535410吨（+195030），西北工厂库存346600吨（+177500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 206751吨（-108280），西北工厂待发订单82500吨（-77500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2197元/吨（-35），太仓基差-13元/吨（+4），CFR中国267美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-24元/ 吨（+13），常州甲醇2255元/吨；广东甲醇2202元/吨（-33），广东基差-8元/吨（+6）。隆众港口总库存1446697吨 （+14514），江苏港口库 ...

1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing a significant surplus in 2026, with daily supply expected to exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels. The supply growth rate is faster than demand due to OPEC+ increasing production since April 2025 and output boosts from other producers like the US, Guyana, and Brazil. The IEA has lowered the global daily oil supply growth forecast to 2.4 million barrels this year, still much higher than demand growth [3]. - The domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins device's average operating load is 80.88%, up 0.27 percentage points. Coastal methanol inventory is basically flat with slow inventory reduction, and the overall domestic methanol device operating load is 78.20%, down 0.12 percentage points from the previous period but up 2.08 percentage points year - on - year [3]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - **Price Changes**: SC near - month contract price increased by 0.3 yuan (0.06%), SC next - month remained unchanged; WTI near - month dropped by $1.98 (-3.05%), WTI next - month fell by $1.99 (-3.07%); Brent near - month rose by $0.55 (0.80%), Brent next - month increased by $0.54 (0.79%) [2]. - **Trading Volume**: SC near - month had a trading volume of 2,652, SC next - month had 89,585; WTI near - month had 298,943, WTI next - month had 217,319; Brent near - month had 333,597, Brent next - month had 216,713 [2]. - **Open Interest**: SC near - month open interest decreased by 1,824 to 2,419, SC next - month decreased by 2,197 to 43,716; WTI near - month decreased by 27,598 to 234,240, WTI next - month increased by 3,656 to 241,210; Brent near - month decreased by 29,632 to 540,674, Brent next - month increased by 29,786 to 492,239 [2]. - **Spreads**: SC near - month - SC next - month spread changed from - 6.2 to - 5.9 yuan/barrel, etc. [2]. Spot Market - **International Market**: OPEC basket price rose from 67.86 to 68.52, Brent DTD from 72.41 to 73.15, etc. [2]. - **Domestic Market**: Daqing crude price rose from 66.23 to 66.94, Chinese gasoline wholesale price index from 7,420 to 7,425 yuan/ton, etc. [2]. Commodity - Specific Analysis - **Crude Oil**: SC night - session dropped by 5.14%. The global oil market has a large surplus, and supply growth outpaces demand [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night - session fell by 0.04%. The domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins device's operating load increased, coastal inventory is basically flat, and the overall domestic methanol device operating load decreased slightly compared to the previous period [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slowdown in Chinese arrivals has materialized, leading to a decline in port inventories this week. However, the winter maintenance units in Iran have started to resume production, and ZPC has restarted one production line. Attention should be paid to the subsequent resumption progress, as the resumption of Iranian units may suppress the market, while also keeping an eye on the development of the geopolitical situation in Iran. [2] - The coal - based methanol plants maintain high - level operation. The downstream pending orders are performing well, and the inventory of inland factories has further decreased, without realizing the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival. [3] - In the traditional downstream sector, acetic acid remains in a loss - making and low - load operation state, formaldehyde continues to reduce its load seasonally, and the MTBE production rate shows a good performance. [3] - The MTO units are in the maintenance period, and Xingxing and Shenghong are still under maintenance. [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis and Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis between spot methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, such as in Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong. It also shows the inter - period spreads between different futures contracts like methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [6][7][13] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. [6][26][27] 3.3 Methanol Production Rate and Inventory - The report shows data on the total methanol port inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated units). [6][34][41] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - It includes price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200. [6][38][46] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report presents the production profits of traditional downstream products, such as the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [6][50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text Core Viewpoints - Chinese methanol port inventory begins to show a lagging de - stocking, with a significant decline in port inventory this week and a slowdown in arrivals being gradually realized [2] - The MTO in the downstream is in the maintenance period, causing the de - stocking of the port not to be fully realized, and some downstream MTO devices are still under maintenance [2] - Coal - based methanol in the inland maintains high - level operation, downstream pending orders perform well, and inland factory inventory further decreases, without realizing the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival [3] - Traditional downstream industries: acetic acid maintains a loss - making and low - load state, formaldehyde continues to reduce its load seasonally, and MTBE operation shows good performance [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][24][25] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [6][31][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between North Shandong - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][35][42] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report presents the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][48][51]

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，累库主要表现在华 东地区，周期内外轮显性卸货 19.14 万吨，全部卸入华东。周内江苏沿江主流库 区提货减弱，浙江有烯烃重启，但总体在外轮供应补充下库存积累。华南地区周 内广东仅少量内贸补充，但主流库区提货减弱，因无外轮补充供应，因此库存去 库；福建地区周内无卸货，库存同步去库。 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将介入并 购买委内瑞拉石油。由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释 放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信号，WTI 原油暴跌。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 日内小幅震荡，支撑关注小时级别 60 日均线，中期继续关注库存持续去化 的兑现，可以适当关注超跌之后的低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No rating for inter - period and cross - variety [4] Core Viewpoints - After the situation in Iran eased, the methanol futures price on the port has continuously corrected. The port inventory has started to decline, and the port basis has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the downstream MTO maintenance situation. Overseas, Iranian methanol plants are still undergoing winter maintenance [3]. - In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants maintain high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based plants are gradually restarting. Inland factories are in a period of continuous inventory increase, and the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures in this part display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] III. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It shows the total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol in China [6][33][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - The section presents the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions [2][6][36] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The equity market sentiment is temporarily stable, causing the commodity index to decline from its high, and methanol follows the index correction. In the medium term, methanol is gradually entering a de - stocking pattern, and the fundamentals may support the overall price of methanol. Therefore, the upward and downward space of methanol is relatively limited [2][4]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are neutral, and the production profit remains at a low level. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. The cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol is gradually stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. - Regarding trading strategies, in the short term, methanol is expected to fluctuate. The resistance level for the 05 contract is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the support level is 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread may present a positive spread pattern, and the spread between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary - Production: From January 9th to 15th, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0301 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.87%, a decrease from the current period. The planned maintenance and production cuts next week involve more production capacity than the recovery, which may lead to a decrease in capacity utilization and production [4]. - Inventory: As of January 14th, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.63%. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. The visible foreign vessel unloading was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. The提货 volume in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while the提货 volume in other social storage areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to less unloading. The inventory in South China ports continued to decline. In Guangdong, there were small amounts of imports and domestic arrivals during the week, and the提货 volume in the main storage areas was stable, resulting in inventory reduction. In Fujian, with the supply from imports and domestic trade and the downstream consumption on demand, the inventory also decreased [4]. - Demand - Olefins: Next week, MTO plants will operate stably with no obvious change plans, and the weekly average operating rate will decline [4]. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, after Chongqing Wanlilai starts production next week, it plans to produce products, and the overall capacity utilization rate may increase compared with the previous period. For glacial acetic acid, Jiantao is expected to resume normal operation next week, and other factories have no planned maintenance, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, Liuyang Jingang plans to restart next week, and the supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. For chlorides, due to the production reduction of plants in the Shandong region in the next period, the overall capacity utilization rate may decline, and attention should be paid to the recovery of Jinling and Luxi plants [4]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of 11:30 on January 14th, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [4]. Price and Spread - The content provides multiple price - related graphs, including the basis, month - spread, and warehouse receipt of methanol in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange from 2020 to 2026; domestic spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, Lunan region, and Taicang; international spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB; and port - inland price differences such as Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing, Taicang - Henan, and Taicang - Lunan [7][12][16][20]. Supply - Production and Operating Rate - Overall: The content shows the daily production and capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol from 2018 to 2026, as well as the daily capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol [25][26]. - By Process: It shows the weekly production of methanol from different processes in China from 2018 to 2026, including coke - oven gas - to - methanol, coal - single - methanol, natural - gas - to - methanol, and coal - co - methanol [28][29]. - By Region: It shows the daily capacity utilization rate of methanol in different regions of China from 2018 to 2026, including the northwest, southwest, east, and central regions [31][32][33]. - Import - related: It includes the monthly import volume of Chinese methanol from 2020 to 2025, the daily import cost, weekly arrival volume, and daily import profit from 2020 to 2026 [35][36][37][38]. - Cost: It shows the daily production cost of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2026, including coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke - oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing [39][40][41]. - Profit: It shows the daily production profit of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2026, including coal - based in Shandong, coke - oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing [43][44][45]. Demand - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the daily capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and MTBE export - oriented plants in China from 2018 to 2026 [47][48][51][52]. - Downstream Profit: It shows the daily production profit of methanol - to - olefins in the east and Shandong regions, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu from 2020 to 2026 [55][56][59][60][61]. - Procurement Volume - MTO: It shows the procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in China, the east, northwest, and central regions from 2020 to 2026 [63][64][65][66]. - Traditional Downstream: It shows the procurement volume of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the north, east, and southwest regions from 2020 to 2026 [68][69][70][71]. - Traditional Downstream Inventory: It shows the inventory of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the northwest, Shandong, and south - China regions from 2020 to 2026 [73][74][75][76]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the weekly factory inventory of Chinese methanol and its inventory in the east, northwest, and Inner Mongolia regions from 2018 to 2026 [78][79][80][81]. - Port Inventory: It shows the weekly port inventory of Chinese methanol and its inventory in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 to 2026 [83][84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the methanol market is complex, with high - level stable domestic supply, low - level external market operation, and strong expectations of domestic MTO shutdown. However, the unstable situation in the Middle East provides relatively strong support for methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The futures market declined, closing at 2239 (- 45/-1.97%). In the spot market, production areas had different quotes: Inner Mongolia南线 was 1870 yuan/ton,北线 was 1820 yuan/ton, etc.; consumption areas also had various prices: Lunan was 2160 yuan/ton, etc.; and ports like Taicang were 2240 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20260110 - 20260116), the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, a decline of 0.08% from last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate was stable at a high level, resulting in continuous abundant domestic supply. Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian start - up was stable, the overall external start - up was at a low level, the European and American markets were stable, the internal - external price difference narrowed slightly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 235,000 tons of Iranian goods were loaded in January, non - Iranian supplies decreased, and the expected import volume in February was about 800,000 tons. Demand side: MTO losses continued to expand, raw material inventories were full, and rigid demand reduced purchases. Some MTO devices had different operating conditions. Inventory side: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong; and the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device start - up rate continued to decline, the Iranian gas restriction expanded, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, the overall transaction was light, and the domestic supply was abundant. The inland MTO start - up was stable, the CTO external procurement ended, and the inland large - scale device had a fault. The Middle East was relatively stable, but the situation was becoming unstable, providing support for methanol [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long at low levels (pay attention to the Middle East situation). - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell call options [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is affected by multiple factors. In the port area, the geopolitical situation in Iran is an important variable for the methanol market. Currently, the total inventory pressure at Chinese methanol ports is high, dragging down the port basis, and there are maintenance expectations for MTO units, which may weaken the future de - stocking expectations. In the inland area, coal - based methanol maintains high - level operations, and the inventory of inland factories is in a continuous recovery cycle, while the traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - season [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as spreads between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][26] 3. Methanol开工, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P开工 rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol开工 rate (including integrated units) is presented through charts [6][32][41] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences, such as the difference between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][38][46] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral for both unilateral and inter - period strategies, and there is no recommendation for cross - variety strategies [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total port inventory of methanol remains high, with a divergence where inventory in Zhejiang accumulates further and that in Jiangsu starts to decline. The inventory pressure is still significant, and the market is waiting for the expected peak and decline of the arrival volume. Attention should also be paid to the duration of the winter shutdown in Iran. There are concerns about the subsequent centralized maintenance of MTO due to low MTO profits. The expected maintenance of Xingxing in mid - January means large inventory pressure in January, and the possible maintenance of Shenghong and Bohua MTO in February - March and the first half of the year may weaken the de - stocking expectation from February to April [3] - The supply pressure on the mainland persists. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Southwest gas - based production in the second half of the month. The traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - season with general performance, and the mainland factories are in a cycle of continuous inventory increase [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - There are multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, as well as the spread between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][13][20] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [24][25][29] 3.3 Methanol Start - up Rate and Inventory - The figures cover the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), the mainland factory sample inventory, and the overall methanol start - up rate in China [31][38] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report presents regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [35][43][47] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether are shown [45][53]