甲醇日报 | 2026-02-27 港口仍等待去库周期开启 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润325元/吨（-38）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1830元/吨（-38），内蒙北线基差220元/吨（+2），内蒙南线1850元/吨（-10）；山东临沂2175元/吨（-18），鲁 南基差165元/吨（+22）；河南2030元/吨（-20），河南基差20元/吨（+19）；河北2075元/吨（+20），河北基差125元/ 吨（+59）。隆众内地工厂库存535410吨（+195030），西北工厂库存346600吨（+177500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 206751吨（-108280），西北工厂待发订单82500吨（-77500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2197元/吨（-35），太仓基差-13元/吨（+4），CFR中国267美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-24元/ 吨（+13），常州甲醇2255元/吨；广东甲醇2202元/吨（-33），广东基差-8元/吨（+6）。隆众港口总库存1446697吨 （+14514），江苏港口库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text Core Viewpoints - Chinese methanol port inventory begins to show a lagging de - stocking, with a significant decline in port inventory this week and a slowdown in arrivals being gradually realized [2] - The MTO in the downstream is in the maintenance period, causing the de - stocking of the port not to be fully realized, and some downstream MTO devices are still under maintenance [2] - Coal - based methanol in the inland maintains high - level operation, downstream pending orders perform well, and inland factory inventory further decreases, without realizing the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival [3] - Traditional downstream industries: acetic acid maintains a loss - making and low - load state, formaldehyde continues to reduce its load seasonally, and MTBE operation shows good performance [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][24][25] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [6][31][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between North Shandong - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][35][42] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report presents the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][48][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No rating for inter - period and cross - variety [4] Core Viewpoints - After the situation in Iran eased, the methanol futures price on the port has continuously corrected. The port inventory has started to decline, and the port basis has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the downstream MTO maintenance situation. Overseas, Iranian methanol plants are still undergoing winter maintenance [3]. - In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants maintain high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based plants are gradually restarting. Inland factories are in a period of continuous inventory increase, and the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures in this part display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] III. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It shows the total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol in China [6][33][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - The section presents the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions [2][6][36] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the methanol market is complex, with high - level stable domestic supply, low - level external market operation, and strong expectations of domestic MTO shutdown. However, the unstable situation in the Middle East provides relatively strong support for methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The futures market declined, closing at 2239 (- 45/-1.97%). In the spot market, production areas had different quotes: Inner Mongolia南线 was 1870 yuan/ton,北线 was 1820 yuan/ton, etc.; consumption areas also had various prices: Lunan was 2160 yuan/ton, etc.; and ports like Taicang were 2240 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20260110 - 20260116), the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, a decline of 0.08% from last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate was stable at a high level, resulting in continuous abundant domestic supply. Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian start - up was stable, the overall external start - up was at a low level, the European and American markets were stable, the internal - external price difference narrowed slightly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 235,000 tons of Iranian goods were loaded in January, non - Iranian supplies decreased, and the expected import volume in February was about 800,000 tons. Demand side: MTO losses continued to expand, raw material inventories were full, and rigid demand reduced purchases. Some MTO devices had different operating conditions. Inventory side: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong; and the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device start - up rate continued to decline, the Iranian gas restriction expanded, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, the overall transaction was light, and the domestic supply was abundant. The inland MTO start - up was stable, the CTO external procurement ended, and the inland large - scale device had a fault. The Middle East was relatively stable, but the situation was becoming unstable, providing support for methanol [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long at low levels (pay attention to the Middle East situation). - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell call options [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The real inventory pressure in the port area remains high, and the window for the port to flow back to the mainland is closed, dragging down port pick - up. Although the Iranian methanol plant is operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation, and the decline rate of shipping volume in December is still slow. There are concerns about the possible maintenance of Xingxing's MTO plant [2]. - Downstream demand in the mainland is in the seasonal off - season, and factory inventories are gradually rebuilding. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based plants in the middle and late ten - days. The seasonal low of pending orders in the northwest drags down the pick - up demand for port - to - mainland back - flow. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operation rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operation rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operation rate has declined slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - The report presents charts of methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][9][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][26][33] 3.3 Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [34][43] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences in different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][48][52] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][58] 3.6 Strategies - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral [4] - For the spread between MA2605 - MA2609, the strategy is to widen the spread when it is low [4] - For the spread between LL2605 - 3*MA2605, the strategy is to narrow the spread when it is high [4] Core Viewpoints - The delayed unloading pressure at ports has started to materialize, and there is pressure for inventory accumulation at Jiangsu ports [2] - After the winter maintenance of Iranian plants was concentrated, a 1.65 million - ton/year Iranian plant restarted on Monday, and the situation of the plants is fluctuating [2] - Although the Iranian plants are operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance still needs further confirmation [2] - The MTO maintenance at Ningbo Fude is dragging down port demand [2] - Coal - based methanol production is still operating well, and there is seasonal winter maintenance for southwest gas - based methanol production [3] - The new MTO plant, Lianhong Phase II, is operating stably [3] - Among traditional downstream industries, acetic acid production has a slight increase but remains at a low level, MTBE production remains at a high level, and formaldehyde production has a slight decline [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - term spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][13][19] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures present Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads between different regions (Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [24][28][29] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Figures display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [31][39] IV. Regional Price Spreads - Figures show regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [37][44][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream industries such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [46][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has further accumulated to a historical high. In November, the arrival pressure remains high. The delayed announcement of winter maintenance in Iran is the main driver of the recent decline in methanol prices. There are now expectations of Iranian plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iranian winter maintenance has regained optimism [2]. - Inland inventory has rebounded again. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. Coal - based methanol production has further increased in November, and inland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. Inland MTO demand has declined, and attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Traditional downstream industries are also under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][11] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows figures on the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, among others [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - It includes figures on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate, the inland factory sample inventory, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [33][34][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides figures on price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and the price difference between Taicang and southern Shandong [38][44][46] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - It shows figures on the production gross profit of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [45][50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a pattern where the inland is stronger than the port. The port has started to reduce inventory, but the absolute inventory level remains high, and future changes depend on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. Inland inventory has decreased again, supported by the procurement of mainstream CTO factories in the northwest. Traditional downstream industries have different performance, with acetic acid being affected by high inventory and MTBE seeing an improvement in exports [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Supply - **Port Supply**: Overseas methanol operating rate is 63.14% (unchanged), and China's weekly imported methanol arrival volume is 279,000 tons (-75,400 tons), including 235,000 tons (-45,400 tons) in East China and 44,000 tons (-30,000 tons) in South China [1]. - **Inland Supply**: China's methanol operating rate is 82.50% (+2.59%), with coal - based methanol at 79.24% (+1.81%), natural gas - based at 50.79% (unchanged), and coke oven gas - based at 61.50% (+1.59%). Northwest operating rate is 84.99% (+4.18%), North China at 58.55% (-5.85%), Central China at 80.77% (-7.87%), East China at 82.30% (+2.51%), and Southwest at 83.97% (+5.97%) [1]. Demand - **Port Demand**: Taicang's average weekly提货量 is 3,268 tons per day (+450 tons), East China's MTO enterprises' weekly procurement volume is 148,600 tons (-16,000 tons), and the operating rate of externally - purchased methanol MTO enterprises is 75.08% (+6.02%) [1]. - **Inland Demand**: Methanol enterprises' pending orders are 273,022 tons (+39,246 tons). Traditional downstream sample enterprises' raw material procurement volume is 36,300 tons (+5,000 tons), with formaldehyde operating rate at 44.71% (+1.32%), acetic acid at 78.97% (-3.44%), MTBE external sales factories at 64.23% (+0.66%), and dimethyl ether at 7.20% (+0.91%). Northwest MTO enterprises' weekly procurement volume is 88,500 tons (+17,200 tons), and MTO enterprises' operating rate is 88.18% (+4.38%) [2]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Methanol port inventory is 1,492,190 tons (-65,580 tons), including 779,000 tons (-8,000 tons) in Jiangsu, 253,700 tons (-33,200 tons) in Zhejiang, 293,000 tons (-10,000 tons) in Guangdong, and 166,490 tons (-14,380 tons) in Fujian. MTO sample enterprises' methanol inventory is 700,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and downstream sample enterprises' is 186,600 tons (-5,600 tons) [2]. - **Inland Inventory**: China's inland methanol factory inventory is 319,940 tons (-20,540 tons), including 208,000 tons (-17,500 tons) in the northwest, 19,000 tons (-300 tons) in North China, 15,450 tons (+320 tons) in Central China, 55,800 tons (-2,050 tons) in East China, and 20,000 tons (-1,000 tons) in Southwest [2]. Market Analysis - **Port**: Port arrivals are lower than expected, and downstream pre - holiday pick - up is acceptable. The port has started to reduce inventory, but the absolute inventory level is still high. Future changes mainly depend on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. The lower support for the port still relies on the window for back - flowing to the inland [3]. - **Inland**: Transactions in the northwest are still good, supported by the procurement of mainstream CTO factories. Inland inventory has decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland is stronger than the port. In traditional downstream industries, high acetic acid inventory drags down its operating rate, while MTBE exports have improved, leading to a recovery in its operating rate, and formaldehyde operating rate remains stable. In terms of supply, the recovery of coal - based methanol operating rate is still slow, waiting for a further increase in October [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: No strategy proposed - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - **Inter - variety**: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory accumulation pace has slowed down for the first time. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, it supported the port demand, and the port inventory remained basically flat this week. However, the subsequent arrival pressure is still high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [3] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol plants is still low, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. The window for port re - flow to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. The high - start acetic acid production has peaked and declined, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the decline in the resilience of inland demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Includes figures such as methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Involves figures related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][30] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Covers figures on total port methanol inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] 4. Regional Price Differences - Includes figures on price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Involves figures on production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has led to a rebound in the prices of olefin derivatives, which in turn has driven up the methanol price. However, the current situation at the port remains weak, with port inventories continuing to rise and downstream MTO in the maintenance cycle. The centralized maintenance period for coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operating rate will increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. For the downstream, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season and is waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region, with Inner Mongolia North Line at 2070 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia South Line at 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi at 2345 yuan/ton (+11), etc. The inventory of inland factories has increased to 310,793 tons (+15,220), and the order backlog has decreased to 207,370 tons (-11,995) [1]. - **Port**: Taicang methanol is 2305 yuan/ton (+25), CFR China is 259 US dollars/ton (-2). The total port inventory has increased to 1,075,960 tons (+54,160), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 83.12% (-0.77%). There are also various regional price differences [2]. II. Market Analysis The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has driven up the prices of olefin derivatives and methanol. But the port situation is weak, with rising inventories and MTO in maintenance. The coal - based methanol maintenance period is over, and the operating rate will increase. Inland factory inventories have rebounded, and downstream orders have decreased. Formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [3]. III. Strategy For single - side trading, inter - period trading, and cross - variety trading, the recommendation is to wait and see [4]. IV. Figures and Tables by Category - **Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure**: There are figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22]. - **Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit**: Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [6][26][30]. - **Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory**: Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [6][32][33]. - **Regional Price Differences**: Figures present price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [6][37][45]. - **Traditional Downstream Profits**: Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][50][55].