品种晨会纪要 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-24 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前煤制甲醇装置亏损程度持续扩大，供应端收缩预期增强。同时临近冬季取暖需求旺 季，西南天然气制甲醇面临限气预期。当下国内港口库存依然高企，外部进口维持高 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with bearish factors dominating [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Methanol Futures Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.17% to 2300 yuan/ton on Thursday night. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Friday [5] Core Logic of the Trend - After the market digested the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakened [5] - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, and the external import pressure continues to increase, with the annual import peak having arrived, resulting in high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival [5] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5]