1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is high - level oscillation, with limited upside and downside potential. Macroscopically, Trump's agreement information reduces the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of the Fed chair causes a decline in precious metals, leading to a weak macro sentiment. However, the strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol. Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices. [2][4] - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO factories) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. The coal price increase in the fourth quarter stabilizes the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol at around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower valuation. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current period, as the planned restored capacity exceeds the capacity for maintenance and production cuts. [4] - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly with the load increase of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant may stop production next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu may stop for maintenance, and Shandong Lianyi may further reduce the load, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear plans for plant shutdowns, but some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. [4] - **Inventory**: - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's sampled methanol producers was 424100 tons, a decrease of 14200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.24%; the pending order volume of sampled enterprises was 265700 tons, an increase of 27400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 11.50%. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.00%. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. There were 191400 tons of foreign vessel discharges, all in East China.提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu weakened, and although there was an olefin plant restart in Zhejiang, inventories still accumulated due to the supply from foreign vessels. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the mainstream storage areas'提货 weakened, resulting in inventory reduction due to the lack of foreign vessel supply. In Fujian, there were no discharges, and inventories also decreased. [4] - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper resistance for 05 contract at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity**: The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillatory pattern. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2026, including the basis of methanol on CZCE, 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipt quantity, domestic low - end prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and other regions, international CFR prices in China and Southeast Asia, FOB price in Rotterdam, and price differences between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, etc. [7][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - **Methanol Production and Operating Rate**: Graphs display the daily production and capacity utilization rates of methanol in China and abroad, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region from 2018 to 2026. [25] - **Methanol Production by Process**: Graphs present the weekly production of methanol from different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 to 2026. [27][28][29] - **Methanol Operating Rate by Region**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2026. [30][31][32] - **Methanol Import - related**: Graphs show the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2026. [34][35][36][37] - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Graphs display the daily production costs and profits of methanol from different processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing) from 2020 to 2026. [38][41] 3.4 Demand - **Methanol Downstream Operating Rate**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2026. [46][47][48][50] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Graphs present the daily production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu, etc.) from 2020 to 2026. [53][54][55][58] - **MTO Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs display the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Central China) from 2020 to 2026. [62][63][64][65] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs show the raw material procurement volumes of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (North, East, and Southwest) from 2020 to 2026. [67][68][69][70] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region**: Graphs display the raw material inventories of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (Northwest, Shandong, and South) from 2020 to 2026. [72][73][74][75] 3.5 Inventory - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Graphs show the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Inner Mongolia) from 2018 to 2026. [77][78][79][80] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Graphs present the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2026. [82][83][84]