投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-03-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC:宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，尚未有产能退出，供大于求格局短期难改，供给压力偏大。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用率在82.08%环比增加 0.01%，同比增加3.43%；其中电石法在81.61%环比减少0.27%，同比减少1.44%，乙烯法在83.20%环比增加0.66%，同比增加16.12%。（3）本周PVC生产 | | | | 企业检修损失量在3.87万吨，较上期下降0.285万吨。本周常规检修略有减少，检修损失量环比上周下降6.86%。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）下游需求进入淡季， ...

南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——多头情绪旺，供需仍承压，宏观与地缘政治扰动加强 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 中国干胶周度社会库存季节性 source： 上海钢联,南华研究 万吨 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 100 120 140 160 固定资产投资完成额与分项累计增速 source： 同花顺,南华研究 亿元 % 固定资产投资完成额当月值 基础设施建设投资累计同比(右轴) 房地产业累计同比(右轴) 交通运输、仓储和邮政业累计同比(右轴) 制造业累计同比(右轴) 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 25000 50000 75000 -20 0 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 RU仓单偏低，有助于近月合约估值偏强运行，05合约前国内处于停割期，价格较多锚定宏观情绪，且目 前现货去库，估值偏强将带来一定支撑。 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 电解铝：宏观情绪谨慎 基本面施压市场维持区间震荡 春节前后现货铝市场维持震荡态势。截至2月24日富宝A00现货铝价23390元/吨，环比节前涨0.95%。主 因，一、春节前后宏观驱动降温，春节期间海外关税调整影响亦较为温和。二、铝水比降至年内低位， 供应提升的同时下游受制于铝价高位减少备货，节后累库同比位于近五年高位，后续或攀升至130万 吨。需求端随着下游复工将有改善，当前支撑温和。后市铝价或维持23000-24000元/吨震荡。 ...

今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网获悉，2月13日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报376600元/吨-379600 元/吨，均价报378100元/吨,较前一日价格下跌15800元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报377250元/吨-379250 元/吨，均价378250元/吨，较上一交易日价格下跌15750元/吨。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn） ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，2026年2月13日，在春节假期前的最后一个交易日，国内金属市场遭遇内外因 素的双重夹击，呈现普跌格局。外部层面，美国1月核心CPI数据超预期强化了市场对美联储"高利率更 久"的担忧，导致隔夜美股重挫、美元指数企稳反弹，全球风险资产抛售潮涌向大宗商品市场。内部层 面，节前下游企业已普遍停工，现货市场进入有价无市的季节性淡季，资金避险离场情绪浓厚。在宏观 压力与基本面疲弱的共振下，金属价格全线回调，其中对宏观情绪和电子需求敏感的锡价领跌，日内跌 幅超过4%，成为市场关注焦点。 节前现状：锡供需博弈加剧，产业链进入年末收尾 节前把握：当前市场避险情绪主导，锡价承压明显，建议投资者观望为主，切勿盲目抄底，控制仓位规 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 7.05% to 365,400 yuan/ton, primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment rather than fundamental changes in the tin market [1] - The supply of tin ore has shown signs of easing, particularly with the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar and the normalization of tin ingot exports from Indonesia, leading to expectations of a more stable long-term supply [1] - The downstream market is entering the Chinese New Year holiday period, with most solder manufacturers halting operations and low procurement willingness due to previous stockpiling during price corrections [1] Group 2 - As the Chinese New Year approaches, most domestic tin smelting enterprises are expected to gradually enter a production halt, with demand-side replenishment nearly completed and only sporadic essential transactions occurring [2] - The core supply tightness in the mining sector remains unchanged, and short-term price fluctuations are anticipated to continue [2]

引言：寒波骤起金属调，美股承压美元稳；锡价深调迎新春，蓄力节后启新程。今日长江现货市场 1# 锡大幅回落，成为今日金属市场焦点，本文结合宏观热点、供需基本面与产业动态，解读下跌逻辑与后 市方向。 今日长江现货 1# 锡报价 377250-379250 元 / 吨，均价 378250 元 / 吨，单日下跌 15750 元 / 吨，跌幅达 4.0%，领跌基本金属板块。锡价受宏观情绪与节前淡季双重冲击，高位快速回调，市场避险情绪显著 升温。 国内锡业龙头企业受益于前期锡价高位运行，全年业绩同比大幅增长，盈利表现亮眼；春节期间企业维 持稳健生产节奏，以合理控制库存、保障订单交付为核心，暂无大幅调价动作，整体经营策略稳中有 序，未对市场价格形成额外扰动。 五、操作策略与走势预判 节前操作需严控仓位、轻仓观望，切勿盲目抄底，重点防范春节假期海外市场波动带来的潜在风险；短 期锡价仍存在回调压力，需重点关注 37 万元 / 吨关键支撑位，若海外宏观情绪逐步缓和，价格下跌动 能将明显衰减；节后需紧盯下游企业复工节奏与补库需求，待供需基本面改善后，锡价有望迎来稳步修 复行情。 一、行情直击：锡价领跌有色，单日重挫超万元 二、宏观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a rebound on low volume. In the long - term, with a low - interest - rate environment and "asset shortage", the domestic market has abundant funds and the economy is bottoming out, so the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, so attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Market sentiment has recovered. In the context of tightening nickel ore supply in Indonesia, supply concerns may continue to disrupt the market. For different metals and commodities, their prices are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term consolidation after rebound, medium - to - long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest - rate risks, focus on Bank of Japan's decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have rebounded due to improved downstream demand and increased risk appetite [1]. - Aluminum: Prices are oscillating strongly with limited industrial - end drivers and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Operating capacity has declined, but inventories have increased, and prices remain oscillating [1]. - Zinc: Cost center is stable, prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Nickel: Prices have rebounded in the short term, affected by the situation in Indonesia. In the long term, high global inventories may be a constraint [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures are oscillating, with support from the raw - material side and improved macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual production by steel mills [1]. - Tin: Prices are volatile in the short term, and investors should focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Have rebounded due to improved liquidity, weak dollar index, and weak inflation expectations. They are expected to stabilize and oscillate before the Spring Festival [1]. - Platinum and lithium: May fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Scheduled production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Polysilicon: Suggested to wait and see due to liquidity risks [1]. - Carbonate lithium: In the off - season for new - energy vehicles, with strong demand for energy storage and battery exports. There is a need for a correction after a large increase [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: High production and high inventory limit price increases, and the transmission from futures to spot prices is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive arbitrage positions can be taken [1]. - Iron ore: There is obvious pressure above the current level, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Current supply and demand are weak, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with looser supply and demand in the medium term, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal: Similar logic, mainly depending on capital sentiment during the off - season. Opportunities for high - point realization of spot goods or establishment of positive arbitrage positions should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: Are expected to turn to an oscillating trend due to various factors such as the end of pre - festival stocking, purchase expectations, and tariff adjustments [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". Future policies, planting area, weather, and demand should be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If prices continue to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - Corn: Is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain and policy changes [1]. - Soybean meal: Is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, affected by factors such as US soybean exports and Brazilian discounts. The spot basis is expected to weaken [1]. - Pulp: With disturbances on the supply side and weakening demand after restocking, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Logs: Spot prices have risen, and with a decrease in February arrivals and rising foreign quotes, the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - Pigs: Spot prices are stabilizing, demand is supportive, and production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the US and Iran may hold peace talks, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down. The commodity market sentiment has turned bearish [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and supply is sufficient [1]. - BR rubber: The cost side has strong support, and there are expectations of export increases. Short - term downstream negative feedback is being realized, and the market should pay attention to pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance [1]. - PTA and short - fiber: The PX market is strong, driving up chemical products. PTA production is increasing, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence [1]. - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory has decreased [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, there are both long and short factors. Downstream negative feedback is obvious [1]. - PVC: Global production capacity expansion is limited in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared in the northwest [1]. - LPG: The CP price has risen, and the market is expected to weaken. The basis is expected to widen, and demand is short - term bearish [1]. - Container shipping on the European route: Pre - festival freight rates have peaked and declined. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

（文华综合） 对于铜价后续走势，金瑞期货表示，展望后市，近期宏观驱动占比较大，整体市场风险偏好有企稳迹 象。但铜自身微观层面弱，CL价差不利虹吸且LME交仓，但未来元素紧张预期尚无法扭转和证伪。综 上，铜价重心可能回归原区间震荡运行，下沿位置较高。 沪铜早间高开，日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨1.84%。最近宏观情绪是左右铜价走势的重要因素，周五 伴随着美股的反弹，市场风险偏好好转，沪铜走势有所回暖，国内消费淡季，供需面难以带来更多支 撑。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the process of bottoming out [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, and policies, and their trends vary [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends such as shock, upward, or downward [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound in the short term, and the long - term upward trend is not expected to end due to abundant funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper prices have rebounded after a decline due to improved downstream demand and increased market risk appetite [1] - Aluminum prices are fluctuating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and limited industrial - end drivers [1] - Alumina prices are oscillating with a decline in operating capacity and further inventory accumulation [1] - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize after a callback, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term but may be suppressed by high global inventories in the long term. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills, and short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1] - Tin prices are highly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - Platinum and lithium may fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1] Industrial products - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1] - For carbonates, it is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a need for a callback after a large increase [1] - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, high production and high inventory suppress price increases, and it is recommended to take corresponding positions [1] - For manganese silicon and ferro - alloy, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and supply may be disturbed [1] - For soda ash, it follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take corresponding positions according to market conditions [1] Agricultural products - For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, they are expected to turn to shock due to various factors such as备货 and tariff policies [1] - For cotton, it is in a situation of "supported but without drivers" in the short term, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions [1] - For sugar, there is a clear short - selling consensus, and attention should be paid to the change of funds [1] - For corn, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival factors [1] - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [1] - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand [1] - For logs, the disk has upward driving force due to rising prices and expected decline in arrival volume [1] - For live pigs, the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemical industry - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as OPEC+ suspending production increase, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment affect their trends [1] - For asphalt, there are factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and demand changes [1] - For BR rubber, the short - term disk is expected to have a wide - range shock, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1] - For PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products, they are affected by factors such as PX market strength, production capacity, and demand [1] - For ethylene, its price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals [1] - For methanol, there are factors such as import reduction expectations and downstream negative feedback [1] - For PVC, there are factors such as supply pressure, future expectations, and policy impacts [1] - For LPG, the disk is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - For container shipping on the European line, the freight rate has peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of copper prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment and liquidity conditions, with both domestic and international copper prices rising over 2% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning, with both domestic and international copper prices increasing by over 2% [2] - On Friday, the decline in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies negatively impacted market sentiment, causing Shanghai copper to briefly fall below the 100,000 yuan mark [2] - Following a stabilization in U.S. tech stocks, concerns over market liquidity eased, leading to an improvement in risk appetite and a rebound in precious metals, which also positively influenced copper prices [2]