| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012 84号 | 可能做 | 日時 市 路 参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/ | 从业资格号:F02519 | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期. A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 農汤 | | 散指 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 天如全部 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 国债 | 晉间。 | 美联储12月降息预期降温,铜价回调,但美联储仍处于降息周 | | | | | | 岸汤 | 期,且矿端扰动犹存,预计铜价回调幅度有限。 | 震荡 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪反复,铝价高位震荡运行。 | | | | | 在生产仍有小幅利润情况下,国内氧化铝产能持续释放,氧化铝 | 产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价格继续围绕 | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | 成本 ...

2025年11月23日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 2 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面底部支撑明显 | 11 | | 多晶硅：临近注销期，关注近月合约 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空博弈加剧 | 20 | | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 | 28 | | 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 | 28 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆，盘面或震荡 | 34 | | 豆一：关注豆类市场情绪，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 39 | | 白糖：关注进口政策变化 | 45 | | 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 | 52 | | 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 59 | | 花生：关注油厂入市情况 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 不锈钢：钢 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 铝期货方面：2025-11-19日沪铝主力合约开于21485元/吨，收于21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化25元/吨，最 高价达21620元/吨，最低价达到21435元/吨。全天交易日成交202981手，全天交易日持仓347833手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.6万吨，较上一期变化2.5万吨，仓单库存69484 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存546075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-19SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得321美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-19氧化铝主力合约开于2776元/吨，收于2740元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-53 元/吨，变化幅度-1.90%，最高价达到2794元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交302092手，全天交易日 持仓426124手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-1 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, crude oil has been fluctuating within a narrow range, with frequent switches between bullish and bearish sentiments and no clear trend. On Wednesday, crude oil rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the refined product side. The trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US have diverged, with diesel surging to a new stage high, possibly related to the approaching Russian sanctions date, but more of an emotional premium. Subsequently, the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure. Market concerns cannot be ignored: macroeconomic negatives have been temporarily ignored, the overnight panic index has risen, and European and American stock markets have fallen, while crude oil has not priced in this risk. After the subsequent positive factors fade, a corrective market may occur. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine, South America, and Africa provide potential bullish support, but the market has shown fatigue in reacting to these risks, and actual events are needed to have a pulling effect. Going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of the gasoline-diesel divergence and the impact of macro funds' risk aversion sentiment on crude oil [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Trade within a range. The resistance level for Brent above is $65, and the support level below is $60. - Arbitrage: Hold off for now. - Options: Hold off for now [5]. Logic Analysis - The rally was driven by sentiment in the refined product side, with divergence and weak follow-up as key features. The core driving force behind the overnight rally in crude oil came from the refined product side, with a significant divergence in the trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US. Diesel soared to a new stage high due to the approaching Russian sanctions date (Russia mainly exports diesel and Europe mainly consumes diesel), providing emotional support for crude oil. However, this driving force is more of a short-term emotional premium - the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure of gasoline and diesel. At the same time, the follow-up increase in the crude oil market has significantly weakened, failing to form a strong follow-up pattern [8]. - Deteriorating macro sentiment hides potential risks, which may trigger a corrective market later. At the macro level, negative factors have been temporarily ignored by the market but have planted the seeds of risk. The overnight panic index rose significantly and lifted from a low level, European and American stock markets fell across the board, and the US stock market hit a new stage low. The risk aversion sentiment in the financial market is gradually fermenting. Currently, the crude oil market has not priced in this macro risk. If the positive support from geopolitical and refined product sides fades later, the market may reprice the fundamentals and macro logic, leading to a significant corrective market [9]. - Geopolitical risks provide emotional support, but it's difficult to have a substantial pulling effect without real events. There are numerous geopolitical risk points, including the high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, and the turmoil in Sudan (interruption of oil exports) and Libya in Africa, which constitute long-term potential bullish factors for the crude oil market. However, the crude oil market has shown fatigue in reacting to geopolitical news. These risks can only provide short-term emotional support and are difficult to have a substantial pulling effect. Only when geopolitical events actually occur and materialize will they have a corresponding impact on oil prices according to the degree of risk [10]. Related News - For the week ending November 14 in the US, API crude oil inventories increased by 4.448 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 790,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 43,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.546 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 1.385 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 577,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 944,000 barrels [11]. - Sources said that due to a drone attack by Ukraine on Friday, the crude oil shipments at Russia's Novorossiysk port were delayed by 2 to 3 days compared with the original plan [11]. - According to foreign media reports, the US Treasury Department claimed in an unusual statement that its recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful. The statement showed the market impact of measures targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The office responsible for overseeing US sanctions at the Treasury Department said that "driven by the effectiveness of US sanctions, the demand for Russian oil is plummeting." The press release stated that various grades of Russian oil "are trading far below all other international prices," with some at multi-year lows. The statement - a November 17 memo from the economic analysis department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions - said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers indicated that they plan to suspend purchases of Russian oil for December delivery. A Treasury spokesperson said in an email that the Treasury is prepared to take further action to end the conflict if necessary [11][12].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 关注铝价超预期回调后的机会 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21320元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-165元/ 吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得320美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-18氧化铝主力合约开于2817元/吨，收于2780元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.71%，最高价达到2822元/吨，最低价为2775元/吨。全天交易日成交264359手，全天交易日 持仓405010手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-18保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨， ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡回7.7万，今日现铜76440元，平水铜咯微贴水85元。SMM社库增加200吨至21.96万吨。隔夜美联储 褐皮书显示通胀持续放缓,强化联储下次25个基点降息的预期,多地联储表示制造业活动下降。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock indices [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Summary by Industry Categories Macro - Finance - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and stock indices fluctuate while accumulating upward momentum. There is strong support below the stock indices due to policy and liquidity [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are a concern [1] National Debt - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - High copper prices inhibit downstream demand, but improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price [1] - Limited industrial drivers but improved macro market sentiment lead to a stronger aluminum price [1] - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - There is still a risk of LME zinc squeeze, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1] - The Indonesian government has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, but approved projects are currently unaffected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in 2026. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be noted [1] - Stainless steel social inventory has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production schedules in November have declined. Attention should be paid to actual production [1] - The tin raw material end has not recovered, and there are good expectations for new - quality demand. Long - term, attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - The short - term upward trend of precious metal prices may slow down. When the government shutdown ends and missing economic data is released, it may affect precious metal prices [1] - For industrial silicon, northwest production capacity is being restored, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening [1] - For polysilicon, production schedules in November are decreasing, the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1] - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, but hedging pressure is high [1] Black Metals - For rebar, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to upward pressure, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated in [1] - For hot - rolled coils, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward price pressure after the macro sentiment is realized [1] - For iron ore, the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1] - For activated carbon, short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - For coking coal, the price is in a dilemma near the previous high. It is necessary to repeatedly test the support. The coke futures price has factored in the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but downstream steel mill profits are being squeezed, and the steel - coke game is intense. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term strategy is to buy at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1] - For coke, the logic is the same as that of coking coal. The futures price is at a premium, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the futures price rises [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean oil, China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and domestic inventory is decreasing. It is more resistant to decline among the three oils and can be over - allocated in arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [1] - For cotton, the domestic new crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up is low, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future policies and demand situations should be noted [1] - For sugar, the global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw - sugar price [1] - For corn, short - term farmers are reluctant to sell, and some purchasers have restocking demand for high - quality corn. The spot price is firm, and the futures price rebounds. However, before the supply pressure is fully released, the upward drive is weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [1] - For soybeans, the near - month purchase and crushing profit of both Brazilian and US soybeans in China is poor. Before the USDA report is released, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] Energy - Chemicals - For crude oil, OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For fuel oil, similar to crude oil, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For asphalt, short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and the supply of raw - material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - For BR rubber, the cost - end butadiene support is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the high - inventory situation has not been the main suppressing factor. The short - term price has stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound [1] - For PTA, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas device failures and domestic device maintenance have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - For ethylene glycol, the decline in crude - oil price leads to a decline in ethylene - glycol price, while the increase in coal price strengthens the cost support. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for polyester is ending, and domestic demand has not significantly declined [1] - For short - fiber, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX, the PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price closely follows the cost [1] - For pure benzene, the Asian benzene price is weak, the US pure - benzene price has increased, and there are more benzene - ethylene maintenance projects [1] - For urea, export sentiment has eased, domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost end [1] - For PVC, new production capacity is being released, the intensity of maintenance has weakened, downstream demand has declined, and orders are poor [1] - For caustic soda, there is a risk of squeeze due to pre - delivery of Guangxi alumina, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, inventory reduction, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1] - For LPG, the international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI price has weakened, the futures price has been re - valued, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - For the container shipping European line, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end of the US federal government shutdown boosts optimistic sentiment and the copper market. With short - term macro potential negatives temporarily fading, copper prices are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the release of US economic data and the situation of the December interest - rate cut game [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a strong intraday oscillation. The US government ended the shutdown, and the long - term order negotiation in the supply side has uncertainties. In November, 5 smelters are expected to have maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. The demand peak season is weaker than previous years, and the downstream demand is still weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing since the end of October [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, with strong intraday oscillation. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 40 yuan/ton, and in South China is 5 yuan/ton. On November 12, 2025, the LME official price was 10,853 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 20 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 10, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 44,000 tons, an increase of 64 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 378,300 short tons, an increase of 4,327 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives outlooks for various commodities, including "看多" (bullish) for copper, nickel, stainless steel, and soybeans, and "震荡" (sideways) for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, gold, silver, etc. [1] 2) Core Views - The A-share market is currently in a relatively vacuous macro environment, lacking a clear upward trend. It is in a sideways movement, accumulating momentum for the next upward move. With policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the stock index has strong downside support. [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside. [1] - For commodities, different factors affect their prices. For example, high copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - The A - share market is in a sideways trend, accumulating energy for an upward move. With policy and liquidity support, the downside of the stock index is limited. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings restrict the upside. [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] - **Aluminum**: Limited industrial drivers recently, but improved macro sentiment leads to a stronger aluminum price. [1] - **Alumina**: With production still having a small profit, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, resulting in a double - increase in production and inventory, and a weak fundamental pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: There is still a risk of a squeeze in LME zinc, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to the domestic supply surplus, caution is needed when chasing high prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The US Senate's progress on ending the government shutdown causes fluctuations in market risk appetite. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material ferronickel weakens, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly. Steel mills' production in November decreases. The stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in a sideways movement. [1] - **Tin**: The raw material end has not recovered, and the new demand is expected to be good. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Supported by the dual - liquidity easing expectations of the US fiscal and monetary policies, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding a December interest rate cut. The gold price may fluctuate in a high - level range. [1] - **Silver**: Boosted by liquidity, the silver price may be stronger in the short term. [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November is decreasing. [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, and the terminal installation in the fourth quarter is increasing marginally. [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure. [1] Steel and Iron - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices. [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro sentiment is realized. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment. [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is struggling at the previous high. Coke's price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the steel - coking game is intense. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: A 4% production cut in Malaysia in early November fails to drive inventory reduction, and the domestic supply in the fourth quarter is relatively loose. [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to be long in arbitrage. [1] - **Cotton**: The new domestic cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply changes from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure increases year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw sugar price. [1] - **Corn**: The short - term market has a strong willingness to purchase high - quality corn, and the spot price is firm. The upward movement of the futures price lacks strong drivers before the supply pressure is fully released. [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the purchase progress for the 12 - 1 ship is slow. The domestic futures are expected to follow the US market and move sideways and strongly before the USDA report. [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The short - term geopolitical situation cools down, and the market sentiment eases. [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment. [1] - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the commodity market sentiment is positive. [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The cost of butadiene provides insufficient support, the synthetic rubber supply is loose, and the price has stopped falling recently. [1] - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price follows the decline of the crude oil price, and the coal - based cost support strengthens slightly. [1] - **Short Fiber**: The short - fiber price closely follows the cost due to the support of PX and the strengthening of the basis. [1] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the US benzene price rises, and the number of styrene overhauls increases. [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from anti -内卷 policies and the cost end. [1] - **PP**: New production capacity is released, the overhaul intensity weakens, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. [1] - **PVC**: The market returns to fundamentals, the number of overhauls increases slightly, but demand weakens. [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Guangxi alumina starts delivery, the subsequent overhaul concentration decreases, the caustic soda inventory decreases, and there is a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. [1] - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, the CP/FEI price weakens, and the domestic LPG fundamentals are stable. [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The macro - positive sentiment is gradually digested, the peak - season price increase expectation is priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose. [1]