新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 宏观影响下，镍不锈钢价格止跌反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2025-08-25日沪镍主力合约2510开于119550元/吨，收于120310元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.59%，当日成交量为 119179手，持仓量为110337手。 期货方面：沪镍主力合约开盘报119550元/吨，受美联储鸽派预期影响，期货盘面持续走强，盘中最高触及 120690 元/吨，最终收于120310元/吨，涨幅0.59%。价格波动区间较窄，显示多空双方在12万元/吨关口附近博弈激烈，但 资金流入推动下多头占据主导。 镍矿方面：当日镍矿市场整体交投活跃度处于中等水平，镍矿主流价格保持稳定态势。菲律宾矿端方面，矿山企 业报价态度坚决，维持坚挺态势，未出现降价让利情况；装船出货环节虽受到局部降雨天气影响，但整体作业效 率未受显著冲击，出货节奏基本正常，对市场供应稳定性影响有限。印尼市场层面，8 月（二期）镍矿内贸基准 价较前期出现小幅下调，调整幅度在 0.03-0.04 美元区间；内贸升水方面，当前市场主流升水水平维持在+24的固 定标准，暂未发生变动。9月（一期）镍矿内贸升水目前市场各方仍在协 ...

原油日报 | 2025-08-26 宏观情绪与俄乌局势推动油价反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.14美元，收于每桶64.80美元，涨幅为1.79%；10月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.07美元，收于每桶68.80美元，涨幅为1.58%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.16%，报499 元/桶。 2、 印尼贸易部周一敦促欧盟立即取消对生物柴油进口征收的反补贴税，因世贸组织在该国提起的申诉中，就多 项关键诉求作出了有利于印尼的裁决。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃宣布，伊朗与英法德三国26日将在瑞士日内瓦就伊核问题等举行会谈。巴加埃表示， 此次副外长级别的会谈是伊朗外长22日与英法德三国外长和欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表通话的后续行动。会谈 除讨论解除制裁和核问题外，还将讨论联合国安理会第2231号决议及其未来走向。(来源：Bloomberg） 4、 乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的无人机袭击加剧了俄罗斯国内燃料市场的夏季危机，在季节性需求高峰期间导致价 格飙升。随着供应萎缩，俄罗斯8月燃料批发价格创下历史纪录。这削弱了非俄罗斯石油巨头运营的小型加油站 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 目前高炉利润仍然较好，电炉利润较前期亦有好转，钢厂生产积极性较高，铁水产量高 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 位运行。需求端总体仍然较弱，建筑钢材成交低位徘徊。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产低于预 | | ★ | | 期，供需预计趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，行情持续回落。但后期不排除 | | | | 仍会有政策扰动，同时在美联储释放宽松信号后，短期或反弹。 | | | | 热卷产量、表需以及库存均略增，基本面相对平稳。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。期货偏弱运行，连续下跌后短期下方空间或已有限，短线或有反 | | ★ | | 弹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增，环保限产力度不及预期，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 基本面中性偏弱。宏观情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第八轮提涨，焦企利润有所改善，利润总体转正。当前焦炭供需总体相对 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 平衡，产量及库存偏 ...

【财经要闻概览】中国7月社零同比增速放缓至3.7%，汽车类零售总额同比转降。美国7月零售销售环 比增0.5%，实际零售销售连续十个月增长，但8月密歇根大学消费者信心意外回落，长短期通胀预期攀 升。铜方面，美联储会议纪要凸显官员对通胀担忧，内容偏鹰派，关注周五杰克逊霍尔"全球央行年 会"鲍威尔表态。近期LME铜现货贴水走扩，进口铜增加，下游需求处淡季，铜材开工率下滑。宏观情 绪反复，产业供需双弱，铜价下行空间有限。铝方面，同样受美联储鹰派纪要影响，关注鲍威尔年会表 态。近期铝价高位运行，国内消费复苏乏力，供应充足，电解铝现货有累库预期，铝价或偏弱运行。锌 方面，宏观多空交织，9月美联储降息对有色板块有支撑。7月锌锭产量超60万吨，8月产量持续恢复， 预计环比增1万吨。需求有韧性，周一社库累增施压锌价，但Ime锌库存去化，挤仓隐患仍存，追空需 谨慎。镍方面，国内反内卷消息降温，美联储纪要偏鹰。印尼镍矿升水暂稳，纯镍供应增加，国内库存 累增，镍价随宏观震荡。全球镍库存高位，需求偏弱，一级镍过剩。操作建议短线，关注逢高卖套机 会，控制风险。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and the port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market port inventory has been depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish inventory has declined [2]. - Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical sector has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, have experienced continuous delays in maintenance, which may have a significant impact on the future market. This has also been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease. Polyester sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has had a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - **PTA**: The market risk preference has recovered, and the crude oil price has slightly increased during the day, strengthening the cost support. The PTA supply side has seen both restarts and maintenance. The PTA spot price has slightly increased following the futures price. On August 12, 2025, the PTA main futures price was 4726 yuan/ton, the spot price was 4705 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee was 218.3 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee was 229.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The spot negotiation price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4507 - 4509 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The ethylene glycol futures have maintained a relatively strong trend, and the spot price has continued to rise, while the basis negotiation has slightly weakened [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 76.56%, the MEG start - up rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 58.74%, and the polyester load decreased by 0.21 percentage points to 86.88% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6730 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7095 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F increased by 30 yuan/ton to 7935 yuan/ton. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY were - 51, - 186, and - 46 respectively, with changes of - 10, 40, and 20 compared to the previous day. The sales of polyester filament increased from 40% to 41% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased by 20 yuan/ton to 6570 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to 139, and the sales increased from 57% to 58% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5815 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to - 66, and the sales increased from 89% to 115% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Neutral; V09 - 01 Inter - period Reverse Spread [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - Wait - and - See [4] 2. Core View of the Report - PVC: Affected by macro - sentiment, the PVC market has fluctuated upwards, but the fundamentals remain weak. Supply is increasing while demand is weak, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, with cost support remaining weak [3] - Caustic Soda: Supply is at a high level, and although there may be a slight decline later, demand has some rigid support. The cost support is strong, and the chlor - alkali profit is moderately high compared to the same period [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5047 yuan/ton (+37), the East China basis is - 167 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is - 107 yuan/ton (+3) [1] - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4880 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4940 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The blue charcoal price is 595 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 14 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 252 yuan/ton (-231), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 489 yuan/ton (-10), and the PVC export profit is 9.0 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - PVC Inventory and Operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.7 tons (-0.8), the social inventory is 48.1 tons (+3.3), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.83% (+3.41%), the ethylene method operation rate is 77.55% (+7.31%), and the overall operation rate is 77.75% (+4.49%) [1] - Downstream Order Situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (-2.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2502 yuan/ton (+10), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 2 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 503.78 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1618.15 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic Soda Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 85.10% (+1.20%) [2] - Downstream Operation of Caustic Soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.73% (+0.15%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: After the previous maintenance, production has resumed, and the overall operation has increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual mass production of new capacity, PVC production is expected to continue to rise, and the supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand: The operation of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders have decreased month - on - month, and the export performance is still affected by India's PVC import policy and the rainy season [3] - Inventory: Due to the increase in production and weak demand, the PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is relatively high [3] - Cost: The calcium carbide price is weak, and ethylene is mainly stable. The cost support for PVC is still weak [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream operation has increased month - on - month to a high level in the same period. Although some enterprises have reduced their production, and Yantai Wanhua is planning maintenance, the operation may decline slightly later. Attention should be paid to the operation in Shandong from late August to September [3] - Demand: The alumina profit is acceptable, and the operation continues to rise. The delivery volume to the main downstream has increased month - on - month, with short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum operation has not changed much and remains weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream products during the peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3] - Cost: The liquid chlorine price has rebounded but is still at a low level, and the cost support for caustic soda is strong. The chlor - alkali profit is moderately high compared to the same period [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: V09 - 01 Inter - period Reverse Spread - Cross - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wait - and - See - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None [4]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: Market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the restocking intensity at the end of the month. The fundamental situation has weakened in the short term, with frequent regulatory actions from the exchange, so short - term risks should be vigilant. [1][40] -纯碱: The fundamental situation has not improved, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is significantly affected by macro - emotions, and subsequent changes in market sentiment should be monitored. [1][5] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash - **Price**: Spot prices remained stable this week, with the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remaining stable. Futures prices were weakly stable last week, with the main SA2509 contract closing at 1249 (-7), the 9 - 1 spread at - 83 (-6), and the basis of the main 09 contract at +95 (-9). [6][10] - **Supply**: Last week, soda ash production was 744,600 tons (+24,700, +3.46%), with light soda ash production at 321,200 tons (+9,900) and heavy soda ash production at 423,400 tons (+14,800). The operating rate was 85.41% (+5.14%). [5][16] - **Demand**: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%; the overall production - sales rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14%. Demand weakened slightly last week, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a rigid - demand basis. Net exports decreased. [5][25] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8651 million tons (+69,300, +3.86%), with light soda ash inventory at 717,600 tons (+24,600) and heavy soda ash inventory at 114,750 tons (+44,700). [5][32] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of the dual - ton combined - soda process was +68.5 yuan/ton (-38), and the profit of the ammonia - soda process was +56.2 yuan/ton (-0.9), remaining basically flat overall. [5][37] 2. Glass - **Price**: Spot prices were stable with a slight decline last week. The main 2509 contract closed at 1063 (-39), the 9 - 1 spread was - 133 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +197 (-1). [40][41][48] - **Supply**: Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 159,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The production was 110.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%. The operating rate was 75.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [40][54] - **Demand**: As of the end of July, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 compared to the previous period. Downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate market recovery was weak, while the automobile production and sales situation in June was at a relatively high level in recent years. [40][63] - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.95%. Inventory increased in all regions. [40][70] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +111.05 yuan/ton (-27.09); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was - 150.36 yuan/ton (+0); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was - 130.57 yuan/ton (-7.14). Industry profits were stable in the short term. [40][84]

Group 1 - Oil prices have limited downside potential, but a rebound depends on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased oil purchases from India [1][3] - OPEC's strategy has shifted from "price stabilization" to "market share," leading to increased global oil supply and downward pressure on prices [2][3] - U.S. gasoline demand during the driving season has been below 9 million barrels per day, lower than the five-year average, indicating weak consumption [2][3] Group 2 - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data significantly missed market expectations, raising concerns about a potential economic recession and weakening oil demand forecasts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential U.S. sanctions on Russia, are contributing to uncertainty in global oil demand [3] - Future oil price movements will depend on the rebalancing of soft power factors, including tariff negotiations, oil-producing countries' capacity efficiency, and geopolitical reconciliation processes [3]

Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Fed's easing expectations support the rebound of aluminum prices. On the 6th, SHFE aluminum closed higher, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. Due to uneven arrivals, the daily inventory decreased slightly, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - SHFE aluminum closed higher on the 6th, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. [8] - The daily inventory decreased slightly due to uneven arrivals, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. [8] - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. [8] - The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. [8] - Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] 2. Industry News - **Overseas Bauxite Mining Right Changes**: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government, with a board of directors, legal personality, and financial and management autonomy. The 690.20-square-kilometer mining area previously occupied by GAC has been awarded to NMC for 25 years. Previously, EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 14 million tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9][10] - **New Aluminum Recycling Plant in the US**: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum annually. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing to make railings, window and door frames, and structural components for automobiles, ships, airplanes, trailers, etc. The plant is expected to reach full production in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will nearly double the primary aluminum production in the US. [10] - **Change of Bauxite Mining Right in China**: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine was changed. The mining right holder is Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mine's mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area is 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year. [10] - **Vedanta's Q1 FY2026 Results**: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April - June 2025) declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the impact of falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Affected by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US trade policies, the benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. Falling commodity prices often affect the sales prices and profits of mining companies. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's consolidated net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), analysts' average expectation for Vedanta's profit was 34.83 billion rupees. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. Vedanta's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: According to customs data, in June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. (The above import and export data are based on customs codes 76011090 and 76011010) [10][11]