Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the methanol industry Core Insights - The methanol market is experiencing mixed price movements, with MTO demand increasing while traditional demand remains weak, leading to seasonal price fluctuations and a cautious market sentiment [1][10] - Domestic methanol production is increasing due to the recovery of previously offline facilities, while imports are slightly decreasing, resulting in a supply surplus [5][22] - The overall supply-demand balance is skewed towards oversupply, with expectations of continued pressure on prices in the near term [20][22] Market Overview - The average price of methanol in Taicang is reported at 2274 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton from the previous period, while prices in Ordos North Line decreased to 1884 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton [2][7] - The port inventory of methanol is at 58.12 million tons, reflecting an increase of 5.82 million tons, indicating a build-up in stock levels [3][53] - The total methanol production for the period is reported at 198.59 million tons, with a utilization rate of 88.12% [21][32] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side shows an increase in domestic production while imports have decreased, leading to a net reduction in supply [5][22] - MTO consumption has increased to 108.63 million tons, indicating a positive demand trend, while total consumption rose to 217.31 million tons [3][21] - The theoretical supply-demand balance shows a positive difference of 12.63 million tons, although this has narrowed compared to the previous week [21][22] Cost and Profit Analysis - The profit margins for coal-based methanol production have decreased, with the price difference between coal and methanol narrowing to 1366 CNY/ton [23][26] - The average profit for coal-based methanol production is reported at 12.95 CNY/ton, down 65.23 CNY/ton from the previous week [23][31] - The profitability of downstream products such as MTO and formaldehyde has declined, with MTO reporting a negative average profit of -1033.59 CNY/ton [28][31] Inventory Analysis - The inventory levels for domestic methanol producers have increased to 37.05 million tons, reflecting a 4.38% increase from the previous week [45][47] - Port inventory levels have also risen, with a total of 58.12 million tons reported, indicating a build-up in stock due to slower demand [49][53] Related Market Analysis - The domestic coal market has shown a slight rebound, with prices for Ordos Q5500 coal at 498 CNY/ton, which may impact methanol production costs [58] - Transportation costs for methanol have remained stable, with minor fluctuations observed in freight rates [59]