来源：中国能源网 2025年11月至12月份，川渝地区开工率持续走低，价格则随开工率下降呈现反向上升的健康发展态势。 然而进入2026年1月以来，尽管开工率继续下行，价格并未同步上扬，反而呈现震荡偏弱格局。 2025-2026年川渝地区开工与价格趋势图 数据来源：金联创 进入12月后，川渝地区企业开工率维持在34%左右，2026年1月份开工率最低降至21%（1月4日至 今），区域供应降至低位。但从金联创价格数据来看，川渝甲醇价格并未出现明显走强情况，从2025年 12月份以来，持续波动在2070-2280元/吨价格区间附近，2026年1月初更是出现短暂小幅下行现象。 川渝地区以及外来货源价格走势 数据来源：金联创 12月份本地供应虽进一步减少，然而外来货源补充较为充足，尤其是新疆地区甲醇供应严重过剩，加之 下游库存处于高位，在高供应、低需求背景下，价格持续承压下行，新疆货源成为入川的主力军，整体 市场在供需基本平衡状态下保持稳定运行。 2026年1月本地企业进入检修企业多为自用甲醇为主，对整体供应影响有限。外来货源方面，在新疆低 价货的基础上，上旬青海盐湖大量粗醇进入市场，叠加气头企业1月中旬将陆续开工复产， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will present a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and moderately slowing demand." The price may stabilize and experience a phased rebound in the first half of the year but face pressure again in the second half. The market is expected to fluctuate widely throughout the year, and the upward space depends on unexpected improvements in demand or unexpected contractions in the supply side [2][73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - The methanol market in 2025 showed a downward trend overall, with two price increases in June - July but lacking driving forces. High inventory led to the price hitting a three - year low [5]. - In Q1 2025, methanol prices oscillated weakly at a high level. Low imports due to Iranian device outages and late overseas device returns supported prices, while high domestic supply pushed prices down slowly [5]. - From April to May, methanol prices dropped significantly as Iranian devices resumed operation, increasing imports, and macro - weakness and falling crude oil prices also contributed to the decline [5]. - From June to July, there were two rebounds. The first was due to the Iranian conflict, and the second was supported by coal price increases. However, both rebounds were short - lived [7]. - From July onwards, high inventory continued to suppress prices. Only in late November did prices rebound slightly due to Iranian winter gas restrictions, but the upward space was limited [7][8]. Supply Analysis - Coal prices have been declining in recent years, leading to improved profitability of coal - to - methanol production. In 2025, coal - to - methanol production was profitable for most of the year, and it is expected to remain marginally profitable in 2026, which will encourage enterprises to maintain production [14][16]. - In 2025, the methanol industry had a high operating rate, with an annual average operating rate of 86.9%. High profitability drove high production, and it is expected to remain high in 2026 [17]. - In 2025, new methanol production capacity was about 990 million tons/year, and more capacity will be put into operation in 2026. However, most new capacity has downstream support, so the actual supply pressure may not be large [26]. - In 2025, inland inventory was low, with an average of about 351,400 tons as of December 12. In 2026, inland inventory is expected to remain low with seasonal fluctuations and low inventory accumulation pressure [30]. Import Analysis - In 2025, foreign operating rates fluctuated greatly, and monthly imports reached a new high in August. The import pattern was "less in the first half and more in the second half," which put continuous pressure on the domestic market. Iranian gas restrictions in late 2025 were less than expected, which contributed to the price decline [32][33]. - Global methanol production capacity growth has slowed down, and there is only one new device planned for 2026, with high uncertainty. Iran may maintain high exports, but there are also uncertainties in maintaining high - load operations [43]. - In 2025, port inventory showed a pattern of "first low and then high." As of December 12, the average port inventory was about 988,800 tons. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain at a moderately high level, and the inflection point of inventory reduction depends on the duration and intensity of Iranian gas restrictions [50][52]. Demand Analysis - In 2025, the profitability of MTO improved, and the operating rate was stable, with an average operating rate of 86.75% as of December 12. In 2026, MTO capacity and production are expected to increase steadily, but profitability may be under pressure [54][61]. - In 2025, new MTO production capacity was about 236 million tons/year, and more capacity will be added in 2026. However, new capacity may squeeze industry profits, and attention should be paid to the operating rate fluctuations of external - procurement MTO devices [61]. - In 2025, acetic acid production capacity expanded significantly, but competition intensified, and profitability was under pressure. In 2026, capacity growth may slow down, but demand for methanol will remain stable [65]. - In 2025, formaldehyde was affected by the real - estate industry, with low profitability and an average operating rate of 43.76% as of December 12. It is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 [69][70]. - In 2025, MTBE exports were strong, with an average operating rate of 62.85% as of December 12 and a cumulative export volume of 3.6287 million tons from January to October. However, in 2026, the export momentum may weaken, and the overall demand will be moderately weak [71]. Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the domestic methanol supply is expected to remain loose, and imports may be similar to or slightly higher than in 2025. Port inventory will remain at a moderately high level [73]. - MTO will provide rigid support for methanol demand, but profitability may be under pressure. Traditional downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak [74]. - Strategies include seizing buying opportunities in Q1 based on import reductions and exploring structured opportunities such as spot - futures arbitrage [2][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the methanol industry is a narrow - range fluctuation [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the central price of methanol is expected to be slightly higher than that in Q4 2025 but not reach the level of H1 2025, showing seasonal fluctuations. One can focus on the low - buying opportunities in the 03 and 05 contracts [2] - In 2025, the methanol industry had significant differentiation in various aspects. In 2026, the supply is affected by overseas factors, the cost is supported by coal price increase, the demand growth may slow down, and the inventory will show seasonal fluctuations [103][104] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (2024.12 - 2025.12) - In Dec 2024, methanol prices rose from 2,500 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton due to Iranian methanol plant shutdowns and reduced imports [6] - From Jan - Feb 2025, downstream MTO profit was eroded, ports started to accumulate inventory, and port prices declined while inland prices rose [6] - In Mar 2025, the arbitrage window closed, and the market oscillated due to the restart of plants [6] - In Apr 2025, methanol prices dropped significantly due to the Sino - US tariff war and expected overseas supply recovery [6] - From May - Dec 2025, prices were affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, geopolitical conflicts, plant maintenance, and inventory changes [7][8] 2. Supply Side 2.1 Capacity - China's methanol production capacity accounts for 58% of the global total, approaching 103 million tons/year in 2025. The new production capacity in 2025 is 8.2 million tons/year, and the national production capacity will reach 108 million tons/year with a 4.8% year - on - year increase [10][11] - In 2026, the new production capacity is expected to be 8.93 million tons/year, with a growth rate of about 5%. The future 5 - year capacity growth rate is expected to decline [11] 2.2 Domestic Production and Operating Rate - As of early December 2025, the domestic methanol production was 95.3 million tons, and the annual production is expected to reach 100 million tons, a nearly 10% year - on - year increase [19] - The operating rate is expected to be close to 90% in 2025, showing a significant upward trend for two consecutive years [22] 2.3 Overseas Production - Overseas methanol capacity growth rate is greater than demand growth rate, and it is in a state of relative over - supply. In 2025, the overseas capacity is about 77.75 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 4.5%, and it is expected to be 4.2% in 2026 [25] - In the next 3 years, there will be about 6.75 million tons/year of new overseas production capacity [25] 2.4 Imports - Iranian methanol (including Iran, Oman, and the UAE) accounts for about 50% of China's methanol imports, significantly affecting China's imports. In 2025, imports were affected by the Iran - Israel conflict, with a decline in June - July and a new high after August [30][31] - Non - Iranian imports increased in the second half of 2025, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the Americas. In the next 2 - 3 years, China's imports are expected to continue growing [31][32] 3. Cost Side 3.1 Coal in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, coal prices declined due to strong supply and weak demand, with inventory accumulation. In the second half, prices rebounded due to supply tightening and demand improvement [36][40] 3.2 Coal Outlook in 2026 - Supply growth is under pressure due to limited capacity increment, strict policy control, complex mining conditions, and limited import growth [48][50] - Demand has growth potential, with electricity demand remaining stable and non - electricity demand expected to improve [50] - Coal prices are expected to have a steadily rising central price and fluctuate within a range [50] 4. Demand Side 4.1 MTO - In 2025, three integrated MTO plants were put into operation. The MTO industry's profit first decreased and then increased, with the operating rate fluctuating between 80% - 90% and an 18% year - on - year increase in production [52][57] - In 2026, multiple MTO plants are planned to be put into operation, bringing new demand for methanol. However, due to over - capacity in the polyolefin industry, MTO's profit will be under pressure [62][65] 4.2 Traditional Downstream - In 2025, traditional downstream industries showed a "differentiated operation and profit - pressured" pattern. MTBE performed best, while acetic acid's growth slowed, formaldehyde's profit was thin, and dimethyl ether shrank [69][71] - In 2026, new capacity will continue to be put into operation, but profit and operating rate will be under pressure, and the demand for methanol will have limited elasticity [84][86] 5. Profit Side - In 2025, the profitability of coal - based methanol was high in the first half and declined in the second half. Gas - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol had weak profitability throughout the year [87] - In 2026, the cost side may strengthen, and the methanol industry's profit will be restricted by downstream demand, import pressure, and high inventory [93][95] 6. Inventory Side - In 2025, inland methanol inventory was at a relatively low level, while port inventory was at a historical high, first decreasing and then increasing [96] - In 2026, inventory is expected to first decrease and then increase, with the port inventory change mainly driven by overseas supply fluctuations. Inland inventory is expected to remain low [101][102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol did not improve significantly, and methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market may continue in a "weak balance" state. In the short term, the price has limited upside and downside potential. The sustainability of port inventory reduction needs to be observed. With the traditional downstream entering the year - end consumption off - season, the demand for methanol is expected to be weak. The subsequent rebound space of methanol futures may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted, with the methanol weighted closing at 2089 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 1.42% drop from the previous week. The port methanol market showed a low - level range - bound trend, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2100 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices declined weakly, with the price in the Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1980 - 2007 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2200 - 2223 yuan/ton. [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis (1) Production - From December 5 - 11, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,039,705 tons, an increase of 16,240 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.81%, a 0.81% increase from the previous week. [14] (2) Downstream Demand - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: The MTO industry's start - up decreased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 77.54%, a 9.94 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 8.98%, a 13.96% increase from the previous week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate increased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased to 41.49%. [19][20] (3) Inventory - As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the previous period, a 2.40% decrease. The sample enterprises' order backlog was 207,500 tons, a decrease of 32,200 tons from the previous period, a 13.45% decrease. The port sample inventory was 1,234,400 tons, a decrease of 115,000 tons from the previous period, an 8.52% decrease. [21][23] (4) Profit - From December 5 - 11, 2025, the economic losses at the upstream production end were slightly improved. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a 29.29% increase from the previous week; in Shandong, the average profit was - 145.10 yuan/ton, a 37.62% increase; in Shanxi, the average profit was - 203.30 yuan/ton, a 15.92% increase; the weekly average profit of methanol made from coke oven gas in Hebei was 189.00 yuan/ton, a 3.08% decrease. [27][29] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls, with an estimated production of about 2.0554 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 90.50%, an increase from last week. - Downstream demand: The overall start - up of the olefin industry may still decline. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decrease, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate may increase, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may rise, and the chloride capacity utilization rate may decrease. The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 362,100 tons, a slight increase from last week. If the port unloading is smooth, the port inventory may accumulate. Overall, the methanol fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited. [32][33][34][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Under the interweaving of long and short factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation next week. Inland methanol factories have no inventory pressure, but the inland methanol operation is at a high - level. With the planned restart of a large - scale methanol project in Inner Mongolia and some upstream factories showing a strong willingness to ship, there is no gap in the supply side. In terms of demand, traditional downstream industries are gradually entering the off - season, but there are significant new demand highlights: a new 450,000 - ton/year olefin plant of Lianhong is planned to be put into operation on December 10. Meanwhile, frequent rain and snow in northern regions in winter may affect transportation efficiency. Downstream enterprises in sales areas keep high raw material inventories to avoid raw material supply risks, and there is still restocking demand, which forms an implicit support for prices. In the port area, although the port inventory continues to be small but still at a high level, downstream demand is average, and the MTO plant in Zhejiang is about to shut down. After the previous positive factors are digested, the current port fundamentals have no obvious positive guidance for spot and futures. It is expected that the port methanol market will fluctuate and consolidate next week, and there is a possibility of a slight decline. Pay attention to the recent port shipping schedules and corresponding inventory changes [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review The methanol market is in a situation of long - short interweaving. Inland supply and demand have their own characteristics, and the port market lacks obvious positive factors. The overall market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate next week, with a possible slight decline in the port market [5]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Domestic Methanol Spot Price**: From November 28 to December 5, prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.95% from 2,105 yuan/ton to 2,085 yuan/ton, while the price in Hebei increased by 2.11% from 2,130 yuan/ton to 2,175 yuan/ton [6]. - **Methanol Basis**: The spot price decreased by 0.95% from 2,105 yuan/ton to 2,085 yuan/ton, and the futures price decreased by 2.72% from 2,135 yuan/ton to 2,077 yuan/ton. The basis changed from - 30 yuan/ton to 8 yuan/ton [8]. - **Methanol Production Profits by Process**: Coal - to - methanol profit increased from - 18 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 88 yuan/ton. Natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton. Coke - oven gas - to - methanol profit increased from 186 yuan/ton to 281 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 318 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81%. The load in the northwest decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% [13]. - **External Methanol Prices and Spreads**: CFR China price decreased by 2.43% from 247 US dollars/ton to 241 US dollars/ton, while CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged at 317.5 US dollars/ton. The spread between them decreased from - 70.5 US dollars/ton to - 76.5 US dollars/ton [16]. - **Methanol Import Spread**: The spot price decreased by 0.95% from 2,105 yuan/ton to 2,085 yuan/ton, and the import cost decreased by 2.37% from 2,172 yuan/ton to 2,120 yuan/ton. The import spread increased from - 67 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [19]. - **Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from November 28 to December 5 [25]. - **Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load**: The profit decreased from - 138 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98% [26]. - **Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load**: The profit decreased from 525 yuan/ton to 462 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79% [28]. - **Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load**: The profit increased from 227 yuan/ton to 253 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32% [33]. - **MTO Production Profit and Load**: The profit increased from - 822 yuan/ton to - 672 yuan/ton. The load in East China decreased from 74.55% to 72.14%, and in South China decreased from 42.2% to 39.71% [37][38]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The inventory in East China decreased from 74.55 to 72.14, and in South China decreased from 42.2 to 39.71 [38]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: The warehouse receipts increased by 99.37% from 3,800 to 7,576, and the effective forecasts remained at 0 after a brief increase to 900 [42]. 3.检修状况 - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [44]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: Iranian, Saudi, Malaysian, and other foreign methanol devices have different operating conditions, such as some in the process of restarting and some operating normally [45]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: Domestic olefin devices in different regions also have different operating conditions, such as some running stably, some being shut down, and some having planned maintenance or new production plans [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive news of Iranian plant shutdowns has materialized, leading to a shift in market sentiment. The market has rebounded significantly, and the inter - month spread has strengthened rapidly. The short - term market bottom is expected to have emerged. However, there is still some pressure on the 01 contract inventory, and the reduction in imports will mainly be reflected in the 05 contract [11]. - The supply is expected to remain high, which will limit the further upward space of methanol prices. After the positive news is fully priced in, the market is expected to shift to a volatile adjustment phase. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading and focus on positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Review**: The positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns has been realized, the market sentiment has changed, the futures price has rebounded sharply, and the inter - month spread has strengthened rapidly. The 01 contract still has some inventory pressure, and the reduction in imports will be mainly reflected in the 05 contract [11]. - **Supply**: The enterprise operating rate is 89.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%, at a high level compared to the same period last year, with short - term room for further improvement. The latest arrival volume is 22.54 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4 tons [11]. - **Demand**: The port olefin operating rate is 87.09%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The operating rate of traditional demand MTBE remains flat, while the others have increased, indicating an improvement in downstream demand [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, the 1 - 5 spread has bottomed out and rebounded, the 5 - 9 spread has increased more significantly, the basis has strengthened, and the futures market logic has started to reverse. Raw material prices remain strong, and coal - based production profits have fallen to the seasonal average level [11]. - **Valuation**: As methanol prices rebound, MTO profits have declined. Currently, methanol valuation is relatively neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 136.35 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.58 tons. The improvement in market sentiment and the decrease in arrivals have led to an accelerated depletion of inventory. Enterprise inventory is 37.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 tons, at a low level compared to the same period last year. Enterprise orders to be delivered are 23.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 tons [11]. - **Market Logic**: After the shutdown of overseas plants, the market sentiment has changed, the spot price has bottomed out, the basis has strengthened, and the inter - month spread has widened [11]. - **Strategy**: Focus on positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various methanol contracts and spot markets have generally increased. For example, the 09 contract price has increased from 2201 to 2223, the 01 contract price has increased from 2004 to 2135, and the 05 contract price has increased from 2138 to 2219. Spot prices in regions such as Jiangsu, Fujian, and Shandong have also risen [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market has rebounded with a significant reduction in positions [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Coal - based production profits have fallen to the seasonal average level, and MTO profits have declined as methanol prices rebound [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level compared to the same period last year [11]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level and has room for further improvement in the short term. The weekly production shows an upward trend [47]. - **Imports**: The latest arrival volume has decreased. The import volume from Iran and other countries shows certain fluctuations. The reduction in imports is expected to be mainly reflected in the 05 contract [11][50]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate has increased slightly, but MTO profits have declined as methanol prices rebound [80]. - **Traditional Demand**: The operating rate of traditional demand MTBE remains flat, while the others have increased, indicating an improvement in downstream demand [11]. 3.6 Options - related - **Options Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of methanol options show certain trends, and the PCR indicators of open interest and trading volume also reflect market sentiment [108]. - **Volatility**: The volatility of methanol options includes historical volatility and implied volatility, which can be used for risk assessment and trading strategies [110]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The document provides diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map, which helps to understand the overall structure and influencing factors of the methanol industry [113][115].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The macro - level has no positive news, and the supply - demand contradiction of methanol is becoming more prominent. It is expected that the domestic methanol price may be under pressure to decline this week. Inland, there are few recent maintenance devices, and multiple methanol devices such as Yigao and Shilin restarted in late August, leading to a significant increase in supply. The reduction of external procurement by CTO plants in Ningxia, the impact of large - scale events in early September on demand in the North China region, and the reverse flow of low - priced port goods to the inland all suppress the inland market. In the port area, Iranian shipments are concentrated, and it is expected that the port will continue to accumulate inventory. However, as the price drops, the reverse flow of port goods to the inland may gradually increase, and attention should be paid to the re - export window. With a weak macro - level and fundamentals, the short - term driving force is still downward. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, and MA2601 will fluctuate between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2601, in terms of fundamentals, with no macro - level positive and prominent supply - demand contradictions, the price is expected to be under pressure. The current situation shows that the inland supply has increased, and the port may continue to accumulate inventory. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2260 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis is - 112, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. As of August 28, 2025, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has significantly increased by 13.18 tons to 106.60 tons, and the overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has increased by 8.44 tons to 69.13 tons. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production. The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late August. CTO plants in the Northwest are procuring methanol externally [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have restarted. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has significantly declined. Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 671 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in different regions has different changes. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.67% this week, while the price in Shandong has remained unchanged. The futures closing price of methanol has decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton. The basis, import price difference, and other price - related indicators have also changed to varying degrees [8][9]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have all declined to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 7.22 tons to 64.48 tons, and the inventory in South China ports has increased by 5.96 tons to 42.12 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Conditions - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced load. For example, Shaanxi Heimao, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are in maintenance, and some plants such as Shanxi Qinyang are operating at a reduced load [60]. - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, and Marjan is in the process of restarting in mid - March [61]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are in maintenance or operating at a low level. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and Qinghai Salt Lake's plant has been shut down since November 12, 2024, with the recovery time undetermined [62].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the methanol industry Core Insights - The methanol market is experiencing mixed price movements, with MTO demand increasing while traditional demand remains weak, leading to seasonal price fluctuations and a cautious market sentiment [1][10] - Domestic methanol production is increasing due to the recovery of previously offline facilities, while imports are slightly decreasing, resulting in a supply surplus [5][22] - The overall supply-demand balance is skewed towards oversupply, with expectations of continued pressure on prices in the near term [20][22] Market Overview - The average price of methanol in Taicang is reported at 2274 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton from the previous period, while prices in Ordos North Line decreased to 1884 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton [2][7] - The port inventory of methanol is at 58.12 million tons, reflecting an increase of 5.82 million tons, indicating a build-up in stock levels [3][53] - The total methanol production for the period is reported at 198.59 million tons, with a utilization rate of 88.12% [21][32] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side shows an increase in domestic production while imports have decreased, leading to a net reduction in supply [5][22] - MTO consumption has increased to 108.63 million tons, indicating a positive demand trend, while total consumption rose to 217.31 million tons [3][21] - The theoretical supply-demand balance shows a positive difference of 12.63 million tons, although this has narrowed compared to the previous week [21][22] Cost and Profit Analysis - The profit margins for coal-based methanol production have decreased, with the price difference between coal and methanol narrowing to 1366 CNY/ton [23][26] - The average profit for coal-based methanol production is reported at 12.95 CNY/ton, down 65.23 CNY/ton from the previous week [23][31] - The profitability of downstream products such as MTO and formaldehyde has declined, with MTO reporting a negative average profit of -1033.59 CNY/ton [28][31] Inventory Analysis - The inventory levels for domestic methanol producers have increased to 37.05 million tons, reflecting a 4.38% increase from the previous week [45][47] - Port inventory levels have also risen, with a total of 58.12 million tons reported, indicating a build-up in stock due to slower demand [49][53] Related Market Analysis - The domestic coal market has shown a slight rebound, with prices for Ordos Q5500 coal at 498 CNY/ton, which may impact methanol production costs [58] - Transportation costs for methanol have remained stable, with minor fluctuations observed in freight rates [59]