光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 201.8 万桶。商业原油库存比去年同期低 0.59%；比过去五年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 低 4%；汽油库存比去年同期高 1.95%；比过去五年同期低 1%；馏 | | | | 分油库存比去年同期高 2.57%，比过去五年同期低 6%。当前在供 | | | | 应增量预期，地缘因素缓和，需求进入淡季的三重考验下，油价 | | | | 整体延续偏弱运行态势。 | | | | 周四，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收跌 1.25%，报 2834 元/ 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2511 收跌 1.23%，报 3360 元/吨。尽 | | | | 管符合规格的含硫 0.5%低硫燃料油的东西方套利窗口在近几周 | | | | 基本处于关闭状态，但用于调和低硫燃料油的组分油总体流入量 | | | 燃料油 | 持续增加。此外，亚洲秋季炼厂检修并未显著收紧当地供应，新 | 震荡 | | | 加坡低硫燃料油市场供应充足。亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构表现坚 | | | | 挺，部分原因在于相对稳定的下游船燃活动，但随着中东地区夏 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 10月9日 | 9月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7077 | 7153 | -76 | -1.06% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7158 | 7220 | -62 | -0.86% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6745 | 6852 | -107 | -1.56% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 6807 | 6880 | -73 | -1.06% | | | L2509-2601 | 81 | 67 | 14 | 20.90% | | | PP2509-2601 | 62 | 28 | 34 | 121.43% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6680 | 6750 | -70 | -1.04% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7030 | 7100 | -70 | -0.99% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -50 | -50 | ...

Group 1 - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed strong growth, with total domestic travel expenditure reaching 809 billion CNY, an increase of 108.19 billion CNY compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [1] - The market for digital products and automobiles experienced rapid growth during the holiday period [1] Group 2 - Precious metals maintained a strong performance during the holiday but saw a significant decline afterward, likely due to profit-taking from a rapid short-term increase [2] - Geopolitical tensions eased with the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which may have influenced market sentiment [2] - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the first trading day after the National Day holiday saw a positive opening for stock indices, led by the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - The financing balance decreased by 34.06 billion CNY to 2.37839 trillion CNY as of September 30 [3] - The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation to equity assets by residents and potential inflows of external capital due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - The double coke market showed fluctuating trends, with inventory levels remaining stable despite a significant increase in social inventory due to the holiday [4] - The increase in inventory was primarily driven by rebar, and there are concerns about the market's acceptance of high-priced resources post-holiday [4] - Upcoming policy expectations related to "anti-involution" are anticipated to provide support for prices in the double coke market [4] Group 5 - The industrial sector for small and medium enterprises in China showed stable economic performance in the first eight months of the year, with an increase in value-added output of 7.6%, outperforming large enterprises by 3.3 percentage points [8] - The development of specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises has been particularly strong, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in value-added output [8] Group 6 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to regulate price competition and maintain a fair market price order, emphasizing the need for businesses to adhere to fair pricing principles [9]

能源化工日报 2025-10-10 原油 2025/10/10 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 9.50 元/桶，跌幅 1.98%，报 471.00 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 36.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.25%，报 2834.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 42.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.23%，报 3360.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 3.72 百万桶至 420.26 百万桶，环比累库 0.89%；SPR 补库 0.29 百万桶至 406.99 百万桶，环比补库 0.07%；汽油库存去库 1.60 百万桶 至 219.09 百万桶，环比去库 0.73%；柴油库存去库 2.02 百万桶至 121.56 百万桶，环比去库 1.63%；燃料油库存累库 0.54 百万桶至 21.17 百万桶，环比累库 2.62%；航空煤油库存去库 0.07 百万桶至 44.27 百万桶，环比去库 0.16%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不易过于看空。基于 ...

张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2328 | 6567 | -31.00 | -1.31% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2362 | 2388 | -26.00 | -1.09% | | | MA15价差 | -34 | -29 | -5.00 | 17.24% | | | 太仓基差 | -125 | -138 | 13.50 | -9.78% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2090 | 2090 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2250 | 2250 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2238 | 2250 | -12.50 | -0.56% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 148 | 160 | -12.50 | -7.81% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | -13 | 0 | -12.50 | #DIV/0! | | | ...

能源化工日报 2025-10-09 能源化工组 张正华 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 橡胶分析师 国庆期间外围市场震荡运行，截至 10 月 8 日下午 3 点，WTI 原油主力合约报价$62.33/桶；Brent 原油主力合约报价$65.89/桶。行业层面，美国 API 行业数据显示库欣库存维持去库 115 万桶， 整体库存情况仍处良性。OPEC 会议于 10 月 5 日结束，开会途中，相关能源部官员表态可能增 产 45 万桶/日，但最终结果仍然为 13.7 万桶/日，会议结果为"原则性低速增产"。 【策略观点】 zhangzh@wkqh.cn OPEC 在此次会议中继续体现出挺价意愿略微大于份额意愿的犹豫态度，虽然整体库存水平表现 良性，但 OPEC 保持微增计划将持续压制油价上方空间。预计原油短期仍然保持震荡走势。 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/10/09 甲醇 【行情资讯】 过节期间海外原油先跌后涨，整体小幅下跌，其他 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract presented a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and slightly falling. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the geopolitical risks in the Middle East significantly cooling down, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons or 1.01% from the previous period. The storage and delivery rates of warehouses changed [8]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of full - steel tire sample enterprises increased [8]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.0%, the logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, and the weekly output was 187.27 million tons [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, and the futures profit of methanol to olefin decreased [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 126.81 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 32 million tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, and the daily crude oil output was 1.3501 billion barrels [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 415 million barrels, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.561 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 93.9% [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,030 yuan/ton | - 345 yuan/ton | - 480 yuan/ton | + 345 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,328 yuan/ton | - 31 yuan/ton | - 53 yuan/ton | + 31 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 473.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.8 yuan/barrel | - 6.1 yuan/barrel | + 10.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][36]. - Crude - oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are facing complex event-driven factors during the holiday. OPEC+ may increase production, and the US government shutdown issue and non - farm data may impact demand expectations. Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in November. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - For fuel oil, recent drone attacks in Ukraine and seasonal refinery maintenance in Russia may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery feed demand may support prices. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is advised [2]. - In the case of asphalt, the planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - Regarding polyester, pay attention to new capacity scales and release rhythms, as well as the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" season and overseas orders. Anti - dumping investigations may change the logistics of some suppliers [2][3]. - For rubber, adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and cost - end price fluctuations [3]. - In the methanol market, the focus is on the start - up of Iranian plants. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended to control risks [6]. - For polyolefins, although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand, and prices may fluctuate with oil prices. Light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - PVC is restricted by high inventory, and the 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices dropped significantly. OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5. Excessive production increase will be bearish for prices. The US government shutdown and non - farm data may impact demand. Saudi Arabia may raise November prices for Asian buyers. Oil prices are volatile, and light - position participation is advised [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly on Monday. Drone attacks and refinery maintenance may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery demand may support prices. Prices may follow oil price fluctuations, and light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract rose on Monday. The planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose slightly. Pay attention to new capacity and demand. Anti - dumping investigations may change supplier logistics [2][3]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Monday. Adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Pay attention to tariff policies and cost - end prices [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by the start - up of Iranian plants and port demand. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended [6]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices are affected by profit and demand. Although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are restricted by high inventory. The 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ may approve a new round of crude oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5 to regain market share [13]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week, while distillate inventories may decline. API and EIA will release inventory reports [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][23][24][26][27][28][29] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [30][32][36][39][42][43] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including historical data [45][47][50][53][57][59] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc., including historical data [61][66][67][68] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [71] 4. Research Team Members - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives research [78]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with achievements in research and media contributions [80]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend as the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fades and the rubber market enters a phase dominated by a weak supply - demand structure [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to keep a weak and volatile trend due to the pressure from the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 may maintain a strong and volatile trend considering the enhanced geopolitical risks, such as the continuous attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and the threat of strong tariff sanctions on Russia by the US [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons (0.76%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07% and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04% [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points week - on - week and 6.95 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week and 6.27 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold, a 1% decrease from July and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume in the first eight months of 2025 reached 710,000, a 13% increase year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, a 0.12% increase week - on - week, a 2.80% decrease month - on - month, and a 1.43% decrease compared to the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8727 million tons, a significant increase of 59,500 tons week - on - week, a slight decrease of 45,600 tons month - on - month, and an increase of 32,400 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.41%, a 0.13% decrease week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a 1.52% increase week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 76.62%, a 0.90% increase week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 58.35%, a 0.69% increase week - on - week [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and a 0.70 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. As of September 29, 2025, the futures盘面 profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 180 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease week - on - week and a 71 - yuan/ton decrease month - on - month [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a significant increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week, 395,600 tons month - on - month, and 487,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week and 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared to the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 418, an increase of 2 week - on - week and a decrease of 70 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 301,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a significant decrease of 9.285 million barrels week - on - week and 2.152 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a slight decrease of 296,000 barrels week - on - week. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a slight increase of 504,000 barrels week - on - week [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 212,383 contracts, a significant decrease of 8,027 contracts week - on - week and a 4.97% increase compared to the August average [15]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 15,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was - 725 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 2,359 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot price of crude oil was 474.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 490.5 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The basis was - 16.2 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/barrel [17]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, inland methanol social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting, crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [18][20][22][31][43]