Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the market is in a fierce tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Crude oil is mainly in high - level volatility. [3][4] - Stock index: The short - term volatility is large. Consider interval operations to seize stage - up opportunities. [5] - Gold: Given the unclear short - term driving factors and high price volatility, wait for clear catalysts at the macro or geopolitical level. [6][7] - Silver: The current price fluctuates extremely violently. Pay close attention to energy prices and global manufacturing PMI data. [8] - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber main contract may have certain support around 16,000 yuan/ton and show a fluctuating trend. [10] - Plastic: It is expected that plastics will fluctuate in a relatively strong range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. [11] - Methanol: Methanol may continue the high - level fluctuation trend. Pay close attention to the spring maintenance intensity, geopolitical situation progress, and port inventory changes. [13] - PTA: In the short term, continuously pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the recovery of downstream demand is still the key. [14] - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol market is currently strongly supported by supply contraction and stable demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances under geopolitical factors. [15] - Soda ash: The futures price may enter a bottom - range fluctuation state. Adopt a bottom - range fluctuation thinking in the short term. [16] - Glass: The glass market is expected to continue the interval - fluctuation trend. Adopt an interval - fluctuation thinking in the short term. [18] - Corn: Corn is under pressure to correct in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 2,350 yuan/ton. [19][20] - Peanut: The main peanut contract fluctuates in a wide range. Operate cautiously. [21] - Cotton: Cotton is in high - level volatility. Operate cautiously. [22] - Soybean meal: Soybean meal may be weakly volatile in the short term. [23] - Soybean oil: The biodiesel policy is about to be implemented. Operate cautiously. [24] - Rapeseed meal: For the RM2605 contract, be vigilant against price fluctuation risks in the short term and focus on risk prevention and control. [25] - Rapeseed oil: The OI05 contract may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short term. Pay attention to risk prevention and control. [26] - Live pigs: The spot price is initially stable. Wait for policy signals and operate cautiously. [27] - Eggs: Pay attention to the breeding side's replenishment and elimination in the medium and long term. [29] - Shanghai copper: The sentiment has improved. Conservative investors wait for definite signals, while aggressive ones can participate at an appropriate time. [30] - Shanghai aluminum: Operate cautiously and wait and see in the short term. [31] - Alumina: The expectation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still upward pressure. [32] - Cast aluminum alloy: The price is strongly correlated with Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the marginal changes in cost and demand. [33][34] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for opportunities to buy at low prices or enter the market after a breakthrough. [35] - Industrial silicon: Cost support is dominant. There may be no trending market in the short term. Wait and see for the time being. [36] - Polysilicon: The trading is sluggish with large fluctuations. It is not recommended to participate for now. [37] - Stainless steel: Affected by macro - sentiment, it fluctuates in the short term. [38] - Rebar: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [39][40] - Hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [41] - Iron ore: Iron ore may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm. [42] - Coking coal and coke: They may maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term. Pay attention to the actual purchasing power of steel mills, coal mine capacity release, and policy implementation. [43][44] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The US - Iran conflict is in a state of "talking while fighting". The uncertainty of geopolitics disturbs the crude oil and chemical sectors, and the energy - chemical sector remains strong before the crisis is completely resolved. The resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of Middle - East oil and gas facilities are the main influencing factors [3]. - Market analysis: The change in the Gulf situation affects the futures market in real - time. The energy - chemical prices are in high - level volatility. If there is no further attack on oil and gas and the Strait of Hormuz is opened orderly, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [3]. Stock Index - Macro information: The market is in an environment with internal support and external pressure. The internal support comes from the improvement of macro - economic data and policy tone, while the external pressure is from the Middle - East conflict [5]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the A - share market declined across the board. Funds flowed from the technology - growth sectors to the large - cap blue - chip sectors. [5] Gold - Macro and geopolitics: The Fed maintained the interest rate in March, with only one expected rate cut this year. The Middle - East conflict continues, and the prospect of a cease - fire negotiation is unclear [6]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the spot gold price rebounded slightly. High oil prices strengthen the Fed's "higher - for - longer" stance, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, if the Middle - East situation escalates, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset may increase [6][7]. Silver - External price: The spot silver price has experienced sharp adjustments and rebounded on March 31. The inventory data shows a tight fundamental situation [8]. - Market analysis: The silver market is in a game between macro - suppression and fundamental support. High energy prices may suppress the price, while low inventory and industrial demand may support it [8]. Chemical Industry Rubber - Market price: The prices of various types of rubber and raw materials are provided [9]. - Market analysis: Due to the off - season of rubber tapping, high raw material prices, and the rising price of BR synthetic rubber, the downside space of Shanghai rubber is limited. Pay attention to domestic rubber - tapping, downstream start - up, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and BR rubber premium [10]. Plastic - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions have declined [11]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is at a certain level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and is affected by geopolitics and oil prices [11]. Methanol - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions show different trends [12][13]. - Market analysis: The futures price has declined. The port inventory is decreasing, the domestic supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is recovering. The international situation may lead to a structural adjustment in methanol trade [13]. PTA - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has also changed [14]. - Market analysis: The PTA industry's operating rate is at a high level, but the downstream polyester industry's sales are sluggish. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has changed [15]. - Market analysis: The domestic production has decreased, the port inventory is declining, the expected arrival volume is low, and the polyester industry's high - level operation supports the demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances [15]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased, the factory inventory is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [16]. Glass - Spot information: The prices in different regions are stable [17][18]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased slightly, the factory inventory is decreasing, and the terminal demand in the peak season may support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: The purchase prices in different regions are provided [19]. - Market analysis: The USDA report shows an increase in global corn production and inventory. The domestic supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19]. Peanut - Spot price: The peanut price is mostly stable, with a decline in the Northeast. The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is slightly boosted, but the price may decline later [21]. - Market analysis: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and oil - mill procurement mentality [21]. Cotton - Spot information: The spot prices at home and abroad have changed, and the basis and price difference have also changed [22]. - Market analysis: The international cotton price is rising. The domestic supply is expected to decrease, the demand has some resilience, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot price is continuously decreasing [23]. - Market analysis: The market is waiting for the US soybean planting intention report. The cost support is weakening, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the inventory may increase in the future [23]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: The spot price has slightly increased [24]. - Market analysis: Globally, it is affected by the Middle - East conflict and biodiesel policy. Domestically, it is about to enter the off - season. Pay attention to the situation of the US - Iran conflict and the implementation of the biodiesel policy [24]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The basis price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: The US soybean market has no obvious driving factors, waiting for the biodiesel policy. The relaxation of regulations on Brazilian soybeans suppresses the market sentiment. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts [25]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The basis price is stable [26]. - Market analysis: Brazilian biodiesel producers have the ability to support a higher blending ratio. The supply of non - GMO rapeseed oil is tight. Pay attention to the Middle - East situation, crude - oil trend, and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy [26]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The price is stable in general, with a slight increase in Henan [27]. - Market analysis: The supply is slowing down, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy of purchasing and storing is expected to increase. The spot price is initially stable, and pay attention to the reversal signal [27]. Eggs - Spot market: The price is rising steadily [28]. - Market analysis: The supply pressure of new - laying hens is small, the egg - laying hen inventory is declining, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the long - term supply - side changes [29]. Metals Shanghai Copper - Spot information: The spot price has increased [30]. - Market analysis: The domestic inventory is in the destocking cycle, but the global inventory is high. The copper - smelting industry is under pressure, and the price is supported by domestic destocking and new - energy demand but restricted by high inventory and smelting losses [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price has increased [31]. - Market analysis: The attack on Middle - East aluminum factories has increased the price. The domestic supply is rigid, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure in the long term [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has increased slightly [32]. - Market analysis: The supply is expected to be excessive due to the increase in production, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, the import and export have no arbitrage space, and the inventory has increased [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The average price is stable [33]. - Market analysis: The cost provides some support, the supply is in a state of over - capacity, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is correlated with Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to cost and demand changes [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [35]. - Market analysis: The social inventory is at a low level, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand from energy - storage batteries is increasing, and the profit is differentiated. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and pay attention to future supply and demand changes [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The market prices of different grades are provided [36]. - Market analysis: The supply is decreasing due to cost pressure, the inventory is high and difficult to destock, the demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost. Pay attention to the resumption of production of leading factories and the implementation of emission - reduction policies [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types have decreased [36][37]. - Market analysis: The market is under the triple pressure of high inventory, deep losses, and serious supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and pay attention to inventory destocking and policy intervention [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [37]. - Market analysis: The adjustment of Indonesian nickel - mine quotas drives the price up, but the weak terminal demand and high inventory may suppress the upward space. The price may fluctuate in the short term [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price is stable [39]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [39][40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price is stable [41]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is slightly decreasing, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of different types of iron ore show different trends [42]. - Market analysis: The iron - ore market is in a game between short - term geopolitical premium support and medium - term supply - demand relaxation. The price is pressured by high inventory but pushed up by policy disturbances. The supply is expected to be loose in the long term, and the demand is recovering slowly. The price may fluctuate in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price index of coking coal has decreased, and the average price of first - class metallurgical coke is stable [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, the supply is increasing but restricted by inventory, the demand is elastic, and the price is affected by energy prices and supply - demand. For coke, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by coking - coal price and geopolitical factors. They are expected to fluctuate in the short term [43][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and the risk premium usually fades within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months. If the current conflict subsides quickly, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical sector and futures will show a downward trend, with structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to decline, and downstream processing links will see improved profitability [5][6]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. Gold is expected to continue with a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come. Glass should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken. Methanol is in a high - level oscillation. Pulp futures are in an interval oscillation [7][11][12][16][18][20]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts on oil prices are mostly short - term emotional premiums rather than long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the crude oil risk premium will quickly be reversed within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to the pricing based on supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade. Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. The trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - The crude oil chemical futures as a whole will follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE will see weakened cost support and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The larger the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties such as coal - based olefins and methanol have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to decline, and a smaller decline compared with pure oil - chemical varieties. Downstream processing links such as plastic and rubber products will see relieved cost pressure, improved marginal profitability, and smoother price transmission [6]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythm - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. Technical Analysis - Stock index futures: It is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. The Shanghai Composite Index is still within the 15 - minute oscillation range [7][8]. - Gold: Gold has stabilized in the daily - level oscillation. After a higher opening, it showed an oscillating trend throughout the day. It should be treated with a slightly bullish and volatile mindset in the future [11]. - Iron ore: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to the influence of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come [12][13]. - Glass: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [16][17]. - Methanol: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for over 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities have led to a sharp increase in the expectation of import supply contraction, which is the core driver of this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as high - level oscillation [18]. - Pulp: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp enterprises' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown an interval oscillation recently [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price closed 0.82% lower at 16,345 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 55 yuan/ton. With the approaching of a new round of rubber - tapping period, the supply of Shanghai rubber is expected to increase, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating downward, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 3,373 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 3,172 yuan/ton, closing 4.69% lower at 3,229 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 271 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks, methanol gave back part of its premium, and it is expected that the methanol futures will maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 766.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 725.0 yuan/barrel, closing 2.94% lower at 740.6 yuan/barrel. Due to the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Iran semi - blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and Iran attacked each other. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons or 0.85%. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 1.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.17 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.48 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.36 percentage points [8]. - As of March 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will slightly decline in the next cycle [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8%. Although automobile sales in the first two months declined due to multiple factors, exports maintained high growth, with a 52.4% year - on - year increase in February [9]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.66%, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.99%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0717 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 244,800 tons compared with 1.8269 million tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 34.10%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.66%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 57.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 532 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 606 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 755,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 219,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 150,300 tons. As of the week of March 26, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 435,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 107,200 tons compared with 327,800 tons in the same period of the previous year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 414, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period of the previous year. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.657 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 83,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 456.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 6.926 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 22.558 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 30.945 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.421 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 92.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.9 percentage points [13]. - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 223,620 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,923 contracts and a significant increase of 84,511 contracts or 60.75% compared with the February average of 139,109 contracts. On the other hand, as of March 24, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 315,830 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 12,874 contracts and a significant increase of 154,436 contracts or 95.69% compared with the February average of 161,394 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,350 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 16,345 yuan/ton | - 195 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | + 195 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 3,560 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | 3,229 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan/ton | + 331 yuan/ton | + 90 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 776.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 740.6 yuan/barrel | - 22.9 yuan/barrel | + 35.9 yuan/barrel | + 22.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32]. - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The supply of raw materials in Southeast Asian producing areas is at a low level throughout the year, and the shortage is extreme. The price of glue water has been continuously pushed up in the short term. The tapping rhythm in Yunnan, China, is normal, but the amount of new rubber in the initial stage is limited, and the global supply shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term. The upstream cost supports stock prices. However, as time goes by, the supply pressure will gradually appear. On the demand side, there is still moderate restocking imagination for some agents of un - price - increased brands at the end of the month, and the overall shipment is still supported to a certain extent. However, the terminal demand has no obvious positive guidance, and the market continues to digest inventory. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate in a narrow range, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the US - Iran conflict [1]. Crude Oil Industry - The control of the Strait of Hormuz and the security of the energy supply chain have not been alleviated. With the participation of the Houthi armed forces, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea and the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait. The main line of oil prices is geopolitical support + policy suppression. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on whether there is substantial progress in the negotiation and whether the Mandeb Strait will be blocked. If the situation continues to deteriorate or there are new variables, the crude oil supply will be in a substantial shortage in the near future, and the crude oil still has the momentum to continue to rise. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the suppression of global inflation and the economy by high oil prices, the acceleration of energy substitution, and the continuous uncertainty brought about by geopolitical conflicts [2]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures opened higher and fell slightly at the end of the session. The spot was purchased on demand. The core driver of the current market comes from the supply gap caused by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The downstream demand is resilient, and the valuation is low globally. The export volume has increased, and the domestic and foreign prices have risen synchronously. On the supply side, the profit of coal - to - methanol remains good, but there are slightly more unexpected overhauls recently. In the port market, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has escalated again, and there are doubts about the recovery of shipping capacity. The port inventory is expected to decline significantly for the 05 contract. On the demand side, the downstream olefins are driven by the rising oil price, the profit of the inland coal - integrated plant has strengthened, and the demand for MTO in the port also has a warming expectation. Overall, the fundamentals of methanol have improved, but in a high - volatility market environment, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of sharp unilateral fluctuations and the callback risk brought about by the easing of the geopolitical situation [9]. Urea Industry - On the 30th, the urea futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price remained stable. Some urea plants were shut down briefly this week, and the supply decreased slightly. Driven by the previous buying sentiment, the urea inventory was at a relatively low level, which supported the price. However, the supply pattern was still loose, and the daily output of the industry was at a high level of 21 - 220,000 tons. Coupled with the continuous release of reserve supplies, the market supply was still abundant. On the demand side, the agricultural demand entered the connection gap period and gradually weakened. The industrial downstream procurement was mostly cautious and purchased on demand. The overall demand was relatively flat. The market lacked a clear driving force for rise or fall, and it was expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract should focus on the range of 1,830 - 1,900, and pay attention to the progress of downstream demand and policy dynamics [4]. Caustic Soda and PVC Industry - **Caustic Soda**: On the 30th, the caustic soda futures fell sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The supply of caustic soda increased slightly this week, the number of overhaul devices was small, the industry's operating rate increased, and the profit increased significantly. The chlor - alkali enterprises actively increased the device load, and the inventory accumulated. The price of liquid chlorine also rose synchronously. The previous bullish sentiment in exports ebbed, which led to a sharp correction in the market, and negative sentiment gradually emerged. The operating rate of downstream alumina manufacturers has gradually increased, and the non - aluminum demand has improved, but the overall supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is still weak. After the sentiment ebbs, the market has declined. Without other driving factors, it is expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [5]. - **PVC**: On the 30th, the PVC futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market maintained a weak range oscillation. There is no demand gap in Asia, especially in the Asian region. Affected by the large number of low - price exports in the early stage and the wait - and - see sentiment of foreign customers towards high prices, the recent export demand has been poor. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market has not been prominent. The non - cost - driven price increase resistance caused by the geopolitical influence in the early stage is relatively large, and the high - price sales of spot goods are difficult. The chemical sentiment has faded, and the PVC price has adjusted accordingly. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC have improved slightly, and the cost side has a large price increase. The price bottom has strong support. Affected by the ebb of the chemical commodity sentiment, it may be weakly adjusted in the short term. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual shutdown rhythm of the devices [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is mainly stable, and the transaction is average. On the supply side, many production lines were shut down for overhaul last week, and the overall supply decreased slightly. It is expected that the production lines will resume this week, and the load will increase. On the demand side, the downstream still purchases on a rigid - demand basis. The float glass is continuously reducing production capacity, and many production lines of photovoltaic glass were shut down last week, showing an overall weak trend. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is basically the same as the previous period, and the de - stocking intensity has weakened. In terms of cost and profit, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) has decreased, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method has been slightly adjusted. As the spring plowing gradually ends, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) is expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is strengthened. At the same time, with the strong support of the current spot cost, it is expected that the soda ash will generally oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and take profit on the 5 - 9 reverse spread [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market has average trading, and the spot price is mainly stable. On the supply side, a 600 - ton production line in Guizhou was shut down over the weekend, and it is expected that there will still be production lines for cold repair this week, and the output will continue to decline. On the demand side, the demand for deep - processing and low - e glass remains weak, and the downstream purchases as needed. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is high year - on - year, and the enterprises have great pressure to de - stock. The fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. At the same time, the glass is currently close to par, and the support of FG605 at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of about 1,030 is strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the future. If there is no improvement in downstream demand or de - stocking intensity, the price may decline further. Attention can be paid to the inventory and warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The start - up of some Asian refineries has been substantially affected, the load of some domestic and foreign refineries has decreased, and combined with the planned overhaul of some devices, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline. The prices of downstream products have risen actively, and the load has been maintained, so the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. It is reported that the United States intends to negotiate with Iran, but Iran is still tough, and it is expected that there will still be repetitions. The oil price fluctuates greatly at a high level. In the short term, pure benzene may fluctuate with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the spread between EB05 and BZ05 (currently 1,727) when it is high [7]. - **Styrene**: A set of devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical's overhaul has been postponed, and Ningxia Baofeng has restarted. Currently, the overall supply is maintained. On the demand side, although the downstream load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the downstream has a strong resistance to high prices, and PS factories plan to reduce the load, and the high - price procurement is weak. The supply - demand of styrene has weakened month - on - month, but with the previous export shipments, the supply - demand of styrene is still tight. Recently, due to the reduction of supply caused by the reduction of refinery load, the price of raw material ethylene has risen sharply, and the profit of styrene has been continuously compressed. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene fluctuates with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is the same as for pure benzene [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: As the Strait blockade time prolongs, the risk of raw material supply interruption for PX factories in Asia is increasing. Some refineries in other Asian countries have continued to reduce their loads, but some domestic devices have postponed their overhauls due to sufficient raw materials. Relatively speaking, the risk of supply interruption in China is slightly smaller. The downstream polyester has difficulty in cost transmission under high raw material prices, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity. In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, but the overall supply - demand expectation of PX in April is tight. Coupled with the current low valuation and the continuous geopolitical situation, the PX price still has support. Strategically, it is recommended to go long at a low position and pay attention to the oil price trend [11]. - **PTA**: Although the interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on Asian PX factories, the overall load of PTA has been maintained. However, affected by the high - price raw materials, the downstream polyester production and sales have been poor. In April, PTA is expected to have an inventory build - up, and the basis has been weak recently. The downstream cost transmission is not smooth, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity, and the demand side may drag down the raw materials. Overall, PTA has limited self - driving force in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. Strategically, it is the same as for PX, and attention should be paid to the oil price trend [11]. - **MEG**: In the second quarter, the impact of the Middle East situation on ethylene glycol will continue to ferment, and the cost support of ethylene glycol is still strong. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the influence of the Middle East conflict, the main contradiction in the fundamentals in the second quarter is the significant decline in the domestic and foreign ethylene glycol supply. Many oil - based ethylene glycol devices have reduced their loads, and the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has decreased significantly in the second quarter. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the transportation of goods from Iran, Kuwait, and the east coast of Saudi Arabia, so the import volume is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the port inventory will enter the de - stocking channel. The de - stocking amplitude of ethylene glycol social inventory in the second quarter is considerable. Driven by the Middle East situation, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise in the second quarter. Strategically, before the restoration of oil transportation in the Middle East, EG still has the momentum to rise, but the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is recommended to buy EG call options lightly at a low position [11]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand of short - fiber has weakened month - on - month due to the increase in supply. The Middle East situation is repeated, the oil price remains high, the terminal is reluctant to follow the price increase, and the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber market is in a tug - of - war. The market is cautious and wait - and - see at a high level, and some short - fiber factories and downstream have the intention to moderately reduce production. In the short term, the short - fiber has weak self - driving force and mainly fluctuates with the raw materials. Attention should be paid to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission. Strategically, it is the same as for PX; when the PF disk processing fee is below 800, it is recommended to expand the spread [11]. - **Bottle - chip**: In April, with the warming of the weather and the limited long - term procurement of the downstream at the end of the first quarter this year, the demand is expected to increase in April. It is expected that there will be high - price rigid - demand restocking or concentrated low - price procurement of bottle - chips by the downstream. At the same time, affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, the supply of polyester raw materials is in short supply, and it is expected that the cost of crude oil and polyester raw materials will remain high in April, and the supply of bottle - chips is limited. Therefore, the supply - demand of bottle - chips in April is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PR is the same as for PTA; it is expected that the processing fee of the PR main contract disk will be strong, and it is recommended to buy PR call options lightly at a low position [11]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP futures fell on the 30th. The upstream price was inverted, the market was priced by futures - spot traders, and the basis strengthened slightly passively. The trading on Monday was generally neutral. LLDPE and PP continue to have a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. PP is de - stocking, and PE inventory is accumulating. Dynamically, the supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, expected decline in imports, and increase in exports makes the end - of - contract inventory of the 05 contract at a low level. Geopolitical premium and cost support, as well as the reduction in the supply side, still dominate. In April, refineries have shifted from preventive production cuts to substantial production cuts, and raw material interruption and high - price procurement have pushed up costs. The domestic device overhauls and the contraction of overseas imports have further solidified the already tight supply pattern. The core is the underlying logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" that dominates the pricing power. It is expected that the spot will tighten and the basis will strengthen in April [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 0.30% to 16,350 yuan/ton; the full - latex basis decreased by 80 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.64% to 15,800 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference increased by 8.64% to - 740 yuan/ton; the FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 1.28% to 20.50 Thai baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue water in the international market increased by 2.58% to 79.50; the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 1.49% to 13,600 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue water in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 2.07% to 14,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.61% to - 745 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.94% to 770 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 44.44% to - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 11.09% to 549.00 (unit not specified); Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161.10 (ten tons); India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108.10; in December, China's production decreased by 84.50 to 51.20; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased slightly to 78.24%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires for automobiles increased slightly to 70.75%; in December, the domestic tire production increased by 4.65% to 10,656.3; in February, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 12.40% to 5,607.0 (ten thousand pieces); in February, the total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 28.46% to 46.15; in February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 25.00% to 60.

Summary of Methanol Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The methanol industry is facing a significant supply shift due to geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, where exports are heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. If access is blocked, exports could drop from 16.5 million tons to 6-7 million tons, impacting 20% of global trade volume [1][10]. - Global methanol supply is entering a phase of stock competition, with new production capacity in the U.S. and the Middle East stagnating. By 2025-2028, there will be virtually no new overseas projects under construction [1]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's methanol production capacity is structurally contracting, with a projected loss of 6 million tons due to reduced steel production affecting coke oven gas supply and accelerated exit of small coal-based facilities under carbon neutrality policies [1]. - Downstream MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) plants are recovering profitability, with operating rates rising to 84%. The anticipated rise in oil prices is expected to increase ethylene/propylene prices, providing upward pressure on methanol prices, which could maintain a range of 3,500-3,600 CNY/ton [1][15]. - The high dependence on imports and tight inventory levels mean that the loss of Middle Eastern supply will force coastal MTO plants to source methanol from inland, increasing logistics costs (approximately 1,000 CNY/ton) and pushing coastal methanol prices above 3,300 CNY/ton [1]. Geopolitical Risks and Production Challenges - The SABIC plant in Saudi Arabia, with a capacity of over 4 million tons, has been shut down, which could exacerbate supply issues. The shutdown is attributed to potential gas supply problems rather than technical failures [3][4]. - The Middle East's methanol production is heavily concentrated in the Persian Gulf, with over 90% of capacity located near the Strait of Hormuz. This geographical concentration poses significant risks to exports amid geopolitical tensions [6][8]. Regional Supply Gaps - Europe faces a 6-7 million ton import gap, with Middle Eastern reductions leading to global resource competition. North and South America have limited capacity to fill this gap, driving global methanol prices higher [2][11]. - The U.S. methanol production capacity is expected to stabilize post-2025, with no new large-scale investments anticipated due to the preference for LNG exports over chemical projects [5][6]. Future Projections - The Middle East's methanol production capacity is projected to decline significantly, with potential losses of up to 50% due to combined reductions from Iran and Saudi Arabia. By 2026, exports could drop from 16 million tons to 6-7 million tons [8][10]. - China's methanol import structure will shift, with increased reliance on inland sources as Middle Eastern imports decline. This will reshape domestic logistics from a focus on external supply to intense competition for local resources [16][19]. Environmental and Regulatory Factors - China's methanol industry faces increasing regulatory pressure, particularly on coal-based production, which is a significant source of carbon emissions. The industry is expected to undergo structural adjustments to comply with stricter environmental policies [13][14]. Pricing and Profitability - Current methanol prices are expected to rise further due to tight supply conditions. MTO plants are currently profitable, and rising oil prices could enhance their profitability, leading to increased demand for methanol [15][16]. Conclusion The methanol industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by geopolitical risks, supply chain challenges, and regulatory pressures. The interplay between domestic production capabilities and international supply dynamics will be crucial in determining future pricing and availability in the market.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades in the Platts market before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect high production in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market is volatile. Suggest flexible trading, gradually taking profits on butadiene rubber, and holding the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [10][13]. - For PVC, in the short term, the price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to geopolitical conflicts, suggest staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired and the market is volatile [20]. - For polyethylene, after the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline, and it will enter a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.70%, to 740.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 118.00 yuan/ton, or 2.72%, to 4464.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 140.00 yuan/ton, or 2.79%, to 5157.00 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 130.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3296 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 89 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc. remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1877 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong. Butadiene rubber production lines had heavy losses and reduced production. The price had room for repair. The overall market changed rapidly [10]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly, gradually take profits on butadiene rubber, and hold the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 35 yuan to 5615 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5450 (- 50) yuan/ton. The basis was - 165 (- 15) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 110 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.9%, with an increase of 0.8%. Downstream demand was gradually recovering [15]. - **Strategy**: The price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the supply was relatively abundant [19]. - **Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines due to geopolitical impacts and market volatility [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41%. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% [22]. - **Strategy**: After the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9313 yuan/ton, up 193 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 163 yuan/ton, weakening by 143 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72%. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 142 yuan to 9916 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was - 42 (- 54) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1%. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February increased by 16 tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 98 yuan to 6876 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 120 (+ 20) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The processing fee on the disk rose 5 yuan to 371 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan to 5279 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 146 (+ 81) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 103.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran-US conflict subsides, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts usually cause short - term emotional premiums in oil prices, and the risk premium will quickly be reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical futures market will generally follow the decline, but there will be structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to price drops, and the downstream processing sector will see improved profitability [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East usually lead to short - term emotional premiums in oil prices. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. - If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will disappear. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [3][4]. II. Trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, but there will be structural differentiation. - Direct oil - chemical varieties (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE) will see a weakening of cost support, and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythms - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties (such as coal - based olefins, methanol) have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to price drops, and a smaller decline compared to pure oil - chemical varieties. - The downstream processing sector (such as plastic and rubber products) will see a relief in cost pressure, an improvement in profitability, and smoother price transmission. - The speed of premium disappearance: The faster the conflict is resolved, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline. - Macroeconomic and supply - demand factors: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. IV. Technical analysis of various futures - **Stock index futures**: The market opened lower and closed higher today, with heavy trading volume at noon and finally closed with a mid -阳线. Technically, the 5 - minute adjustment is sufficient, and it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the early trading on Monday. It is recommended to go long on dips [8][9]. - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold has gradually stopped. Gold maintained a volatile trend throughout the day, and a bullish and volatile outlook is recommended for the future [12]. - **Iron ore**: The shipping from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills will resume production after the holiday, which may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, it is in a wide - range high - level shock, and the right - side signal still needs to wait [14][15]. - **Glass**: The daily melting has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The resumption of work of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday needs to be monitored. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock before the upper - level pressure is broken [17][18]. - **Methanol**: From the perspective of the industrial chain transmission mechanism, the current methanol price increase is "cost - driven". In the short term, downstream enterprises can digest cost pressure by raising prices, but if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as a high - level shock [19]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp mills are operating within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. Downstream paper mills' previously shut - down equipment has gradually resumed production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown a range - bound trend recently [21].