投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2026 年 1 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素提振 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 16030 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.96%至 16030 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度升阔至 25 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价摆脱三角形区间震荡， 维持震荡偏强格局。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 26 ...

供应端，恒泰期货指出，委内瑞拉发生局势变动，伊朗发生罢工冲突或引发价格变动。2026年，中国甲 醇行业预计将新增21套产能，总规模达1350.7万吨/年，全国计划退出甲醇装置4套，合计产能140万吨/ 年。 需求方面，光大期货分析称，宁波富德装置预计检修至1月中旬，但山东联泓新建装置生产正常，预计 烯烃总需求有一定支撑。 1月9日，国内期市能化板块互有涨跌。其中，甲醇期货主力合约报收于2273.00元/吨，震荡上行 1.34%。 展望后市，金信期货表示，国际供应风险上升，1月进口预期下降，短期价格震荡偏强为主。 库存方面，据紫金天风期货介绍，2025年12月卸货不顺导致港口出现了阶段性去库情况。随着卸货恢复 正常，2025年12月底港口重新进入累库阶段，预计1月上旬将延续小幅累库态势。 ...

能源化工日报 2026-01-09 2026/01/09 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 8.60 元/桶，跌幅 2.02%，报 416.20 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 1.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.04%，报 2458.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 33.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.14%，报 2929.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 3.83 百万桶至 419.06 百万桶，环比去库 0.91%；SPR 补库 0.25 百万桶至 413.46 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存累库 7.70 百万桶 至 242.04 百万桶，环比累库 3.29%；柴油库存累库 5.59 百万桶至 129.27 百万桶，环比累库 4.52%；燃料油库存去库 0.06 百万桶至 22.98 百万桶，环比去库 0.27%；航空煤油库存累库 0.05 百万桶至 44.03 百万桶，环比累库 0.11%。 徐绍祖 聚烯 ...

能源化工日报 2026-01-08 2026/01/08 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 11.00 元/桶，跌幅 2.57%，报 416.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 34.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.38%，报 2437.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 67.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.29%，报 2860.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 2.24 百万桶至 6.15 百万桶，环比去库 26.73%； 柴油库存累库 0.35 百万桶至 2.27 百万桶，环比累库 18.47%；燃料油库存去库 2.25 百万桶至 8.77 百万桶，环比去库 20.44%；总成品油去库 4.14 百万桶至 17.19 百万桶，环比去库 19.42%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 2026/1/8 甲醇 ...

| 期现日报 | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | 2026年1日7日 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | | | | | | 0.71% | 1694 | 1682 | 12 | 01合约 | 1778 | 10 | 05合约 | 1768 | 0.57% | 元/1中 | | | 09合约 | 1730 | 15 | 0.87% | 1745 | 2215 | 78 | 3.52% | 甲醇主力合约 | 2293 | | | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 車位 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | 2.33% | 01合约-05合约 | -84 | -86 | 2 | -13.16% | 05合约-09合约 | 33 | 38 | -2 | 丁C/四中 | | | 09合约-01合约 | 48 | 3 | 6.25% | 51 ...

宁证期货投资咨询中心 投资咨询业务资格： Z0015369 F3040522 目录 供应端：2026 年甲醇计划投产 787.7 万吨/年，其中浙石化 50 万吨/年、宁 夏冠能 40 万吨/年、北方华锦联合石化 40 万吨/年、中煤榆林二期 220 万吨/年 甲醇装置有配套下游，另外计划投产的甲醇装置中有 153.7 万吨的绿色甲醇装 置，总体 2026 年甲醇新投装置预期对市场供需影响微弱。 证监许可【2011】1775 号 蒯三可 进口：2026 年甲醇进口预期增长，国内需求扩张为根本拉动，海外供应宽 松+成本优势为直接支撑，叠加贸易流向再平衡与国内供应结构限制共同推动。 2026 年国内 MTO 对甲醇需求预计增 300 万吨+，醋酸、甲醛等新增产能释放，需 求同比增 5%-8%。伊朗占中国进口约 60%，2026 年 Q1 冬季限气与检修结束后， 装置恢复，全年对华供应预计增 8%-10%；新增 Dena 165 万吨装置下半年投产， 实际贡献增量约 40 万吨，非伊进口预计增 15%-20%。 投资咨询证号： 从业资格号： 需求端：2025 年底-2026 年需重点关注山东联泓格润二期、广西华谊及 ...

能源化工日报 2026-01-07 橡胶 | | 原油 | | --- | --- | | | 2026/01/07 原油 | | 能源化工组 | 【行情资讯】 | | | INE 主力原油期货收涨 1.40 元/桶，涨幅 0.33%，报 428.20 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 | | 张正华 | 燃料油收涨 18.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.73%，报 2479.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 8.00 元/吨，涨幅 | | 橡胶分析师 | 0.27%，报 2925.00 元/吨。 | | 从业资格号：F270766 | 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 2.10 百万桶至 205.11 百万桶，环比去库 1.02%； | | 交易咨询号：Z0003000 | 汽油商业库存累库 0.58 百万桶至 89.62 百万桶，环比累库 0.65%；柴油商业库存累库 0.42 百 | |  0755-233753333 | 万桶至 92.56 百万桶，环比累库 0.45%；总成品油商业库存累库 1.00 百万桶至 182.18 百万 | |  zhangzh@wkqh.cn | 桶，环比累库 0.55%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

能源化工日报 2026-01-05 2026/01/05 原油 【行情资讯】 截至节假日最后交易日，INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.40 元/桶，跌幅 1.46%，报 432.20 元/桶； 相关成品油主力期货高硫燃料油收跌 37.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.49%，报 2447.00 元/吨；低硫燃料 油收跌 65.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.17%，报 2935.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 1.38 百万桶至 10.52 百万桶，环比累库 15.07%； 柴油库存环比去库 0.12 百万桶至 14.61 百万桶，环比去库 0.81%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.37 百万桶至 7.06 百万桶，环比累库 5.60%；石脑油环比去库 0.83 百万桶至 4.63 百万桶，环比 去库 15.18%；航空煤油环比去库 0.36 百万桶至 7.82 百万桶，环比去库 4.43%；总体成品油 环比累库 0.44 百万桶至 44.64 百万桶，环比累库 1.00%。 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkq ...

晋煤华昱：2020元/吨起拍，2040吨，最终2035-2040全部成交。 已有0人打赏 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 （来源：甲醇网） 原标题：1月4日山西晋煤华昱甲醇最新报价 每日提醒 来源：甲醇网 ...