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甲醇产业链周报:去库不及预期,重回偏弱震荡-20251102
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 09:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is currently in a weak and volatile state. Although there has been a slight reduction in port inventory, the market is still constrained by high inventory levels, and the fundamental improvement is not significant. There is significant supply pressure, and the impact of potential winter gas restrictions in Iran on production and the timing are uncertain. Given the high inventory and potential positive factors such as winter gas restrictions, an overly bearish view is not advisable. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices have continued to decline recently, with recent basis quotes around 01 - 45 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for November paper goods at 01 - 5 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis of Each Contract**: The basis quotes for methanol have strengthened this week, with the basis quote for November paper goods around 01 - 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis of Each Region**: Coastal basis has fluctuated, and inland basis has also been volatile. The inland market prices, especially those in the northwest region, have fluctuated this week [22][31]. - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions has weakened. The current spread is still in a reverse - arbitrage trend. The PP - 3MA spread has weakened this week, and attention can be paid to potential opportunities to short PP and long MA in the future [40][49][55]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - **Production and Operation**: Recently, there have been many newly - added maintenance devices, and the methanol operating rate is slightly lower than last year. As maintenance devices gradually resume production, methanol production has increased slightly [60][64]. - **Downstream Operation**: The dimethyl ether operating rate has fluctuated, the formaldehyde operating rate has rebounded, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest has been high and volatile, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins devices has fluctuated this week, and MTO profits have slightly increased [69][72][75]. 4. Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although there is high inventory pressure, there are also positive factors such as potential winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85].