南华期货甲醇产业周报 ——地缘升级 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 中国作为全球最大的甲醇消费国，年甲醇进口量达1000万吨以上。以2025年为例，甲醇进口量60%以上 来自伊朗地区。此次地缘冲突，对甲醇有两大利多因素，一是市场对伊朗甲醇供应量的担忧；二是原油暴涨 带来甲醇下游的成本上移，进而抬高甲醇估值。具体来说伊朗地缘风险会影响伊朗甲醇供应，在事件不断发 酵的过程中，我们有几个指标需要密切关注，一是此次冲突会不会波及到伊朗甲醇主产区（Marjan、 ZPC1#2#、Busher、Kimiya、Salaban），即阿萨鲁耶工业园区。二是双方交战过程中会不会袭击伊朗南帕 尔斯气田，即伊朗境内最主要的天然气供应地区。三是关注伊朗主要港口与海峡（伊朗阿巴斯港与霍尔木兹 海峡）的情况，截止目前2月伊朗甲醇发运量为18万吨，后续高度关注伊朗发运进度。综上此次地缘冲突对甲 醇影响较大，且后续有反复发酵的可能。 伊朗甲醇月度装船量 source： 南华研究 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、行情走势回顾 春节前一周甲醇期货弱势震荡，中东地缘冲突缓和，市场重回基本面交易，节前下游企业逐步停工放 假，需求端收缩预期升温，叠加港口库存高位运行，市场抛压释放，价格弱势震荡，节前最后一个交易 日，市场避险情绪升温，多头大幅减仓，主力2605合约收于2188元/吨，创1月下旬以来新低。假期美伊 军事对峙升级，一方面伊朗为主要甲醇出口国，其局势动荡直接推升了甲醇市场的风险偏好，另一方 面，假期原油受同样驱动影响大幅上涨，对油系化工品形成支撑，进而向上传导至甲醇，受此影响，节 后首日甲醇期货高开高走，早盘涨超3%，收复节前一周跌幅。 现货市场表现相对平稳，节前一周市场交投较为冷清，港口市场价格波动有限，内地厂家在完成节前降 价去库后报价坚挺，其中西北地区市场价明显回升。节后沿海港口价格随盘反弹，市场交投尚未完全恢 复。 二、供给端：国内供应大幅增加，海外装置开工率维持低位 国内供应维持高位。1月国内甲醇产量达900.24万吨，较上年12月减少6.68万吨，当仍处近年第二高位， 进入2月后甲醇装置产能利用率再次攀升至90%以上，预计本月甲醇月产 ...

地缘+化工板块推动，甲醇偏强运行 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2026年1月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止1月22日，鄂市煤矿开工率73%，榆林地区煤矿开工率50%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量420万吨附近，需求平稳，坑口价止跌窄幅反弹。供应端，煤 制甲醇利润在320-350元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开 工下降，外盘整体开工低位，欧美市场小幅上涨，内外价差稳定，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12月装货71，非伊货源减量，1月进口预 期120左右。需求端，MTO装置开工率大幅下滑，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置停车；南京诚志1期29.5万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，其配 套60万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，江苏斯尔邦80万吨/年MTO装置停车；天津渤化60万吨/年（MTO） 装置负荷7成；宁波富德60万吨/年DMTO装置停车。库存方面，封航进口到港略 ...

甲醇产业日报 2026-01-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2260 | 51 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -19 | 4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 817171 | -31791 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -124400 | 45132 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7675 | -400 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2225 | 15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1795 | -25 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 415 | 50 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -35 | -36 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 262 | 1 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 266 | 4 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -60 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, and the weak winter demand expectations are unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm. The inventory is expected to increase overall. The methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2172 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 27 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 797,941 lots, down 57,443 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 110,375 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,748, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2135 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1915 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest spread is 220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 37 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 248 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 252 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 100.73 tons, up 20.77 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.52 tons, down 1.4 tons. The methanol import profit is 3.14 yuan/ton, down 2.05 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 404,000 tons, up 12,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.52%, up 0.71%. [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.58%, up 1.09%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.09%, down 1.89%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.51%, up 2.62%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, down 0.85%; the olefin operating rate is 89.51%, down 0.44%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1038 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 13.78%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.81%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.07%, up 0.3% [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 40.40 tons, up 1.28 tons, a 3.28% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 19.36 tons, down 2.68 tons, a 12.16% decrease. The total methanol port inventory is 141.25 tons, up 19.37 tons. The inventory in East China has increased, and in South China, it has decreased [2]. - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 89.49%, a 0.71% decrease. The Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continue to be shut down, and the weekly average operating rate of the MTO industry has decreased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will present a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and moderately slowing demand." The price may stabilize and experience a phased rebound in the first half of the year but face pressure again in the second half. The market is expected to fluctuate widely throughout the year, and the upward space depends on unexpected improvements in demand or unexpected contractions in the supply side [2][73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - The methanol market in 2025 showed a downward trend overall, with two price increases in June - July but lacking driving forces. High inventory led to the price hitting a three - year low [5]. - In Q1 2025, methanol prices oscillated weakly at a high level. Low imports due to Iranian device outages and late overseas device returns supported prices, while high domestic supply pushed prices down slowly [5]. - From April to May, methanol prices dropped significantly as Iranian devices resumed operation, increasing imports, and macro - weakness and falling crude oil prices also contributed to the decline [5]. - From June to July, there were two rebounds. The first was due to the Iranian conflict, and the second was supported by coal price increases. However, both rebounds were short - lived [7]. - From July onwards, high inventory continued to suppress prices. Only in late November did prices rebound slightly due to Iranian winter gas restrictions, but the upward space was limited [7][8]. Supply Analysis - Coal prices have been declining in recent years, leading to improved profitability of coal - to - methanol production. In 2025, coal - to - methanol production was profitable for most of the year, and it is expected to remain marginally profitable in 2026, which will encourage enterprises to maintain production [14][16]. - In 2025, the methanol industry had a high operating rate, with an annual average operating rate of 86.9%. High profitability drove high production, and it is expected to remain high in 2026 [17]. - In 2025, new methanol production capacity was about 990 million tons/year, and more capacity will be put into operation in 2026. However, most new capacity has downstream support, so the actual supply pressure may not be large [26]. - In 2025, inland inventory was low, with an average of about 351,400 tons as of December 12. In 2026, inland inventory is expected to remain low with seasonal fluctuations and low inventory accumulation pressure [30]. Import Analysis - In 2025, foreign operating rates fluctuated greatly, and monthly imports reached a new high in August. The import pattern was "less in the first half and more in the second half," which put continuous pressure on the domestic market. Iranian gas restrictions in late 2025 were less than expected, which contributed to the price decline [32][33]. - Global methanol production capacity growth has slowed down, and there is only one new device planned for 2026, with high uncertainty. Iran may maintain high exports, but there are also uncertainties in maintaining high - load operations [43]. - In 2025, port inventory showed a pattern of "first low and then high." As of December 12, the average port inventory was about 988,800 tons. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain at a moderately high level, and the inflection point of inventory reduction depends on the duration and intensity of Iranian gas restrictions [50][52]. Demand Analysis - In 2025, the profitability of MTO improved, and the operating rate was stable, with an average operating rate of 86.75% as of December 12. In 2026, MTO capacity and production are expected to increase steadily, but profitability may be under pressure [54][61]. - In 2025, new MTO production capacity was about 236 million tons/year, and more capacity will be added in 2026. However, new capacity may squeeze industry profits, and attention should be paid to the operating rate fluctuations of external - procurement MTO devices [61]. - In 2025, acetic acid production capacity expanded significantly, but competition intensified, and profitability was under pressure. In 2026, capacity growth may slow down, but demand for methanol will remain stable [65]. - In 2025, formaldehyde was affected by the real - estate industry, with low profitability and an average operating rate of 43.76% as of December 12. It is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 [69][70]. - In 2025, MTBE exports were strong, with an average operating rate of 62.85% as of December 12 and a cumulative export volume of 3.6287 million tons from January to October. However, in 2026, the export momentum may weaken, and the overall demand will be moderately weak [71]. Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the domestic methanol supply is expected to remain loose, and imports may be similar to or slightly higher than in 2025. Port inventory will remain at a moderately high level [73]. - MTO will provide rigid support for methanol demand, but profitability may be under pressure. Traditional downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak [74]. - Strategies include seizing buying opportunities in Q1 based on import reductions and exploring structured opportunities such as spot - futures arbitrage [2][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The coal demand has weakened, leading to a decline in coal prices. However, the domestic methanol auction prices remain firm, and the coal - to - methanol profit is stable at a high level. After the autumn maintenance, the domestic methanol supply is abundant. The international methanol device operating rate is stable, with most devices in Iran restarted, and imports are gradually recovering. As the arrival volume increases, the port inventory is accumulating rapidly. With stable downstream demand and general port demand, methanol should be shorted at high prices but not chased when shorting [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Analysis of raw coal**: As of September 10, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions have rebounded, with daily coal production around 4 million tons. The demand has weakened, and the pit - mouth price continues to decline [4] - **Supply situation**: The price of raw coal has fallen, but the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. The domestic supply is continuously abundant. The US dollar price of imported methanol has dropped, and the import parity is stable. The operating rate of overseas devices is high, and the import volume in September is expected to reach 1.4 billion tons [4] - **Demand situation**: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4] - **Inventory situation**: The port inventory has increased significantly due to more imports, and the basis is weakly stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4] - **Trading strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. In the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of September 11, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 72.75%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points from last week and 0.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 66.54%, a decrease of 3.10 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From August 30, 2025, to September 5, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol production was 1,090,107 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 74.73%, a 0.21% increase from last week [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of September 10, 2025, 14:00, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 457,100 tons during the cycle [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.69%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 82.66%, with a slight decline [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde have different changes. The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 19.10% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 250,700 tons, an increase of 940 tons from the previous period [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of September 10, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period [5] - **Valuation**: The coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] - **Spot price**: The price in Taicang is 2,280 (+30), and the price in the north line is 2,100 (+60) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The开工率 of coal mines is stable. As of December 6, the开工 rate of coal mines in Ordos is 76%, and that in Yulin is 46%. The coal production in Ordos and Yulin is around 4 million tons per day, but the demand is declining, leading to continuous drops in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply of methanol is continuously abundant. The US dollar price is stable, the Iranian point reduction is decreasing, and the import parity is stable. Most Iranian plants are shut down due to gas restrictions, while the non - Iranian plants' operating rate is increasing. The import volume in January is expected to reach about 1.25 million tons. The MTO device operating rate has slightly increased. The port inventory has decreased, but the basis is still weak, and the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device operating rate has declined, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the methanol market continues to be in an oscillatory state. The trading strategies are to gradually build long positions for 05 contracts on dips, hang on to the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The raw coal situation shows stable coal mine operation, with the recovery of production in Ordos and Yulin. However, demand is weak, causing coal prices to fall. The supply of methanol is abundant, with stable profits from coal - to - methanol production and high - level domestic operation. The import situation is affected by Iranian gas restrictions and non - Iranian supply adjustments. The demand from MTO devices shows a slight increase. The inventory situation includes a decrease in port inventory and narrow fluctuations in inland enterprise inventory. The overall market is oscillatory, and the trading strategies are proposed as mentioned above [3][4]. 3.2 Chapter Two: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of December 4, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants is 76.19%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and 2.18 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 86.48%, up 0.55 percentage points from last week and 1.44 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants is 68.26%, up 0.61 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 29 to December 5, 2025, the international production is 931,455 tons, down 42,240 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 63.85%, down 2.90% from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 376,000 tons, including 354,700 tons of foreign vessels and 21,300 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of December 4, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region is 87.48%, up 0.39 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 91.78% [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, unchanged from last week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 69.62%, with some plants restarting or having load adjustments. The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.91%, with some small - scale device adjustments [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 84,500 tons, up 33,500 tons (33,500 tons) from the previous statistical date, a 65.69% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 361,500 tons, down 12,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 239,700 tons, up 9,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of December 3, 2025, the total port inventory is 1.3494 million tons, down 14,100 tons from the previous period, with a 1,300 - ton increase in East China and a 15,400 - ton decrease in South China [5]. - **Valuation**: In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has risen. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - north line spread is 80 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong spread is - 130 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang is 2080 (+90), and the price in the north line is 1990 (+30) [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should continue to monitor the progress of winter inspections of Iranian methanol plants. Although some Iranian plants have shut down, the shipping volume in November exceeded 1 million tons, so there is still significant inventory pressure at ports in December, and the current situation remains weak [3]. - In the domestic market, there are both new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Among traditional downstream sectors, acetic acid and formaldehyde have low operating rates, while only MTBE has a relatively high operating rate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences (such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [6][27][28]. 3.3 Methanol Operation and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), domestic factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) is presented through charts [6][35][36]. 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts showing regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280, East China and Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang and Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][47]. 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][52][55]. 3.6 Market News and Key Data Domestic Market - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 583 yuan/ton (unchanged). The prices of methanol in different domestic regions have different changes, with some increasing and some remaining stable. The inventory and pending order volumes of domestic factories also show different trends, with inventory decreasing and pending orders increasing [1]. Port Market - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2060 yuan/ton (+7 yuan), and CFR China is 238 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars). Port inventory has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO has increased slightly [2]. Regional Price Differences - There are various changes in regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280 increasing by 15 yuan/ton, and the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 increasing by 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.7 Market Analysis - At ports, the market is waiting for further progress of winter inspections of Iranian plants. Although some plants have shut down, the high shipping volume in November leads to high inventory pressure in December. In the domestic market, there are new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and traditional downstream sectors have different operating rates [3]. 3.8 Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [4]. - Inter - period: Expand the price difference between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Methanol continues its downward trend. The 01 contract may continue to decline as the fundamentals offer no support, and the pressure on ports is hard to relieve due to increased shipments from Iran. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions, and conduct 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [1]. - The short - term trend of methanol is range - bound, with the 2601 contract expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is suggested to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. - The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Methanol is in a downward trend. The 01 contract's fundamentals lack support. Although there was a rebound in the market due to industry protests against low prices, inland methanol enterprises still have profits. The increased shipments from Iran have made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Despite the relatively strong thermal coal prices, they cannot provide cost support for Henan methanol. The higher - than - usual temperature in Iran may delay gas restrictions until mid - November. The November shipments have exceeded expectations, and port inventories are likely to remain high. Later, the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2036, with the futures price dropping significantly and the 01 basis strengthening by 10 [11]. - **Calendar - spread Strategy**: This week, as the shipments from Iran continued to accelerate, the market no longer expects early gas restrictions this year, and the 1 - 5 spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation [11]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The 2601 contract is expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - There are records of the implementation status of previous strategies, including the holding of short - put, short - call, 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategies, as well as the stop - profit of long positions [19]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - There are various charts showing the inventory situation of methanol ports, including the weekly inventory seasonality of Chinese methanol ports, the inventory seasonality of methanol ports in different regions, and the inventory situation of warehouses in Jiangsu Province [35]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [61]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management under different scenarios, including using futures and options for hedging [61]. - **Positive Information**: The second - phase 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong is expected to start production as early as the end of November [62]. - **Negative Information**: Iran's shipments were 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, and 0.69 million tons in November [63]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The fundamentals offer limited support. Although producers in the production areas have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics and transportation, they still intend to maintain low inventories and mainly sell at reduced prices in the first half of the week. Downstream demand has decreased, and some traders are short - selling, causing the market in the sales areas to decline synchronously [65]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Inland Market**: In the second half of the week, the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in Inner Mongolia boosted market sentiment. As the methanol prices in the production areas have reached the bottom, traders are cautious about short - selling, and some buyers have entered the market for procurement, leading to a halt in the decline and a stabilization in the inland market [66]. - **Port Market**: Under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak downward trend next week [66]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking - There are various price charts showing the prices of coal, methanol in different markets, and related products over different time periods [77][78][82]. 4.2 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the production costs and profits of methanol produced from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, coke oven gas) in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Shandong, etc.) [89][90][93]. 4.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly operating rates of different methanol production methods (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal combined - alcohol, natural gas, etc.) and downstream products (MTO, MTBE, acetic acid, etc.) [96][99][100]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the import volumes of methanol from different countries (Malaysia, Venezuela, Iran), the external market structure of methanol, and the import profits of Iranian methanol [129][130]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and the weekly production volumes of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol [133][134][136]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, and inventory changes [140]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in domestic methanol plants, there were both maintenance and restarts in the Northwest. Some plants in Shandong and Inner Mongolia restarted, while some plants in East China were shut down for maintenance. Some plants in Central China restarted but have not yet produced products [141]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO plants such as Xingxing and Chengzhi have resumed or increased their loads. The second - phase MTO of Lianhong is planned to be completed earlier than expected and has started stockpiling. Iran maintains high shipments [145].