Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The port basis of methanol continues to consolidate weakly, and the ports are in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. The overall overseas methanol operation rate remains high, with only a small amount of maintenance in Iran and the resumption of Petronas in non - Iranian regions, increasing the pressure of arrivals in China. The maintenance of the Xingxing MTO unit has dragged down the demand. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operation rate will gradually increase in late August, which may drive the inventory in the inland to bottom out and rise. The formaldehyde downstream is in the seasonal off - season, waiting for further bottom - up recovery [2]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure The report shows figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol Taicang basis and main contract, basis of methanol spot in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spread between different methanol futures contracts [6][8][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit It presents figures on methanol production profit (such as Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and spreads between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [25][33]. III. Methanol Operation & Inventory The data includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [35][37]. IV. Regional Spreads The report shows figures on various regional spreads, such as the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and spreads between other regions [39][45][48]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits It presents figures on the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - term: Wait and see [3] - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 665 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton). - Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 2080 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton), with a basis of 284 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia southern line is 2080 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton). - Shandong Linyi is 2345 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton), with a basis of 149 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton); Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton), with a basis of 14 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2300 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 164 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 295,573 tons (+1,885 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 182,500 tons (-3,000 tons); the inland factory's pending orders are 219,365 tons (-21,435 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 107,000 tons (-15,800 tons) [1]. Port - Taicang methanol is 2302 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), CFR China is 262 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton), and the East China import spread is 17 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton). Changzhou methanol is 2425 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2300 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 96 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,021,800 tons (+96,320 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 548,000 tons (+50,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 139,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 213,000 tons (+43,000 tons). The downstream MTO operation rate is 83.12% (-0.77%) [2]. Regional Spreads - The spread between northern Shandong and northwest (-280) is - 45 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550) is - 328 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and southern Shandong (-250) is - 293 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton); the spread between southern Shandong and Taicang (-100) is - 57 yuan/ton (+14 yuan/ton); the spread between Guangdong and East China (-180) is - 182 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the spread between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing (-200) is - 133 yuan/ton (-6 yuan/ton) [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-14甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：国内甲醇市场预期区域性差异明显，需关注内地与港口套利是否开启。内地方面，近前期停车甲醇装置集 中恢复，内地供应增加，但内地企业低库存基础之上，叠加西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需紧平衡的格局延续。但同 时传统需求淡季，不利于成本传导，对行情有一定限制，预计本周内地震荡偏强运行。而港口供需矛盾预期明显，伊朗 装船发运较为集中且港口大型烯烃装置停车，预期累库将持续，当下驱动逻辑回归基本面供需，短期焦煤和焦炭在政策 及核查等因素影响下，市场炒作情绪较重，甲醇期货盘面存在一定支撑，但上行乏力，预计本周华东甲醇市场处于 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol is becoming more polarized, and it is expected that the regional characteristics of its price trends will become more prominent. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week, with weakening demand, leading to a predicted weak adjustment. The inland market has healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but is affected by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 running between 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of methanol 2509 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bullish, the disk is neutral, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2509 ranging from 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; some CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the prices of some regions such as Jiangsu and Fujian have decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis has changed, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 650,300 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 40,500 tons to 366,300 tons [5]. - **Production profit data**: The profits of coal - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production have changed, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remains unchanged [19]. - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remain unchanged. The production profits and loads of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO devices have all changed [28][32][35][39][44]. - **Warehouse receipt and forecast data**: The number of methanol warehouse receipts has decreased by 13.10%, and the number of effective forecasts has increased to 202 [51]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic device maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in various states of maintenance, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, and some devices are in the process of restarting [54]. - **Foreign device operation**: Some methanol production devices in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operation statuses. Devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are generally operating normally, while some devices in the United States and New Zealand have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin device operation**: Olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and low - load operation [56].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment for bulk commodities is strong, and methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The international methanol device operating rate has slightly increased, imports are gradually recovering, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories are accumulating. The domestic coal price continues to decline, the profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded to the highest level in history, and the domestic supply is loose. However, the recent strong rebound of domestic bulk commodities has improved the market atmosphere [4]. - Trading strategies suggest a bullish and fluctuating trend for unilateral trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw material coal**: As of July 24, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 48%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 4 million tons, with good demand and firm pit - mouth prices [4]. - **Supply side**: The price of raw material coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is firm, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - **Import side**: The international methanol device operating rate continues to rise, the US dollar price has slightly decreased, imports are back in a positive spread situation. Iranian devices are gradually increasing their loads, non - Iranian devices are operating stably, the external market operating rate has reached a new high this year, the European and American markets continue to decline, the price difference between China and Europe has flattened, the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 600,000 tons in July, and continues to lower the price for tendering. Some Indian supplies are flowing to China, non - Iranian supplies are increasing, the arrival in Taicang is increasing, and inventory accumulation is accelerating [4]. - **Demand side**: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - **Inventory**: The arrival of imports has increased, port inventories are accumulating, and the basis is firm; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of July 24, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 70.37%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week but an increase of 8.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 65.47%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From July 19 - 25, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output was 1,056,853 tons, an increase of 19,250 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 72.45%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of July 23, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 173,800 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of July 24, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 79.28%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 86.08%, with a slight decrease in the load of East China olefin enterprises [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, remaining the same as last week; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 92.69%, a slight increase; the formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a year - on - year decrease of 17.46% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 244,800 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.70% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of July 23, 2025, the total port inventory was 725,800 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Valuation**: In the northwest region, the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 735 yuan/ton. The price difference between the port and the north line was 440 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the port and northern Shandong was 150 yuan/ton. The MTO loss was narrowing, and the basis was weakening [5]. - **Spot prices**: The price in Taicang was 2480 (+110), and the price in the north line was 2040 (+70) [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port market of methanol is expected to continue range - bound oscillations in the short term due to potential inventory accumulation, and the futures trend may be affected by tariff and crude oil news. The inland market has support on the supply side but faces weak demand in the traditional high - temperature off - season. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating between 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The port market has a risk of inventory accumulation in the short term, and the inland market has low demand in the off - season but some support on the supply side. The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production starts to decrease, some downstream devices are put into production, and northwest CTO factories continue to purchase methanol externally [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices are restarted, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the traditional off - season, MTBE production starts to decline significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively shipping, and some factories in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The prices of ring - Bohai thermal coal, CFR China main port, and CFR Southeast Asia remain unchanged, while the import cost decreases by 1 yuan/ton. The prices of methanol in different domestic regions show different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price drops by 46 yuan/ton, the registered warehouse receipts decrease by 160, and the effective forecast remains at 0 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis, import spread, and some regional spreads change, with the basis increasing by 51 yuan/ton and the import spread increasing by 45 yuan/ton [8]. - **Start - up Rate**: The weighted average national start - up rate drops by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the start - up rates in different regions also decline to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in East China ports increases by 1.98 tons to 44.60 tons, and the inventory in South China ports increases by 0.86 tons to 15.00 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including those in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55]. - **Foreign Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at different levels, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [56]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin devices are in maintenance or have different operating states, with some running stably and some having planned or unplanned shutdowns [57].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, methanol port inventories decreased as expected. In the short term, port methanol inventories may accumulate. Attention should be paid to changes in the tradable volume in the coastal market and international situation changes. - Due to the planned maintenance of Zhongmei Mengda and a slight reduction in the load of East China enterprises, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased last week. This week, with the ongoing maintenance of Zhongmei Mengda's olefins and the expected load reduction of olefin enterprises in East China, the olefin industry's operation may continue to decline. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2550 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2504 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. - The main contract's open interest was 993,459 lots, an increase of 108,755 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders were - 117,489 lots, a decrease of 47,331 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts was 7,867, a decrease of 58. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2002.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton. - The East - Northwest price difference was 717.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 216 yuan/ton. - CFR China Main Port was 306 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 346 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. - FOB Rotterdam was 285 euros/ton, an increase of 12 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference was - 40 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.9 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.08 US dollars/million British thermal units. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 43.7 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 14.94 tons, a decrease of 3.48 tons. - The methanol import profit was 89.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.64 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 129.23 tons, an increase of 50.46 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 88.65%, an increase of 0.67%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 50.39%, a decrease of 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.66%, an increase of 0.96%. - The acetic acid operating rate was 88.33%, a decrease of 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate was 63.71%, an increase of 4.01%. - The olefin operating rate was 89.22%, an increase of 0.66%; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1050 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 22.16%, an increase of 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 22.01%, an increase of 0.49%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 26.88%, an increase of 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 26.88%, an increase of 1.7%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.74 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.38 tons, a decrease of 2.83 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 9.37%. - As of June 18, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 58.64 tons, a decrease of 6.58 tons from the previous data. The inventory in the East China region decreased by 3.10 tons, and the inventory in the South China region decreased by 3.48 tons. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. [2] 4. Information to be Followed - Wednesday's inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports - International situation changes [2]