甲醇产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2172 | 16 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 27 | -7 20340 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 797941 | -57443 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -110375 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 6748 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2135 | -15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1915 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 220 | 5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -37 | 2 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 248 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 320 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 252 | -1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -72 | 0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will present a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and moderately slowing demand." The price may stabilize and experience a phased rebound in the first half of the year but face pressure again in the second half. The market is expected to fluctuate widely throughout the year, and the upward space depends on unexpected improvements in demand or unexpected contractions in the supply side [2][73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - The methanol market in 2025 showed a downward trend overall, with two price increases in June - July but lacking driving forces. High inventory led to the price hitting a three - year low [5]. - In Q1 2025, methanol prices oscillated weakly at a high level. Low imports due to Iranian device outages and late overseas device returns supported prices, while high domestic supply pushed prices down slowly [5]. - From April to May, methanol prices dropped significantly as Iranian devices resumed operation, increasing imports, and macro - weakness and falling crude oil prices also contributed to the decline [5]. - From June to July, there were two rebounds. The first was due to the Iranian conflict, and the second was supported by coal price increases. However, both rebounds were short - lived [7]. - From July onwards, high inventory continued to suppress prices. Only in late November did prices rebound slightly due to Iranian winter gas restrictions, but the upward space was limited [7][8]. Supply Analysis - Coal prices have been declining in recent years, leading to improved profitability of coal - to - methanol production. In 2025, coal - to - methanol production was profitable for most of the year, and it is expected to remain marginally profitable in 2026, which will encourage enterprises to maintain production [14][16]. - In 2025, the methanol industry had a high operating rate, with an annual average operating rate of 86.9%. High profitability drove high production, and it is expected to remain high in 2026 [17]. - In 2025, new methanol production capacity was about 990 million tons/year, and more capacity will be put into operation in 2026. However, most new capacity has downstream support, so the actual supply pressure may not be large [26]. - In 2025, inland inventory was low, with an average of about 351,400 tons as of December 12. In 2026, inland inventory is expected to remain low with seasonal fluctuations and low inventory accumulation pressure [30]. Import Analysis - In 2025, foreign operating rates fluctuated greatly, and monthly imports reached a new high in August. The import pattern was "less in the first half and more in the second half," which put continuous pressure on the domestic market. Iranian gas restrictions in late 2025 were less than expected, which contributed to the price decline [32][33]. - Global methanol production capacity growth has slowed down, and there is only one new device planned for 2026, with high uncertainty. Iran may maintain high exports, but there are also uncertainties in maintaining high - load operations [43]. - In 2025, port inventory showed a pattern of "first low and then high." As of December 12, the average port inventory was about 988,800 tons. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain at a moderately high level, and the inflection point of inventory reduction depends on the duration and intensity of Iranian gas restrictions [50][52]. Demand Analysis - In 2025, the profitability of MTO improved, and the operating rate was stable, with an average operating rate of 86.75% as of December 12. In 2026, MTO capacity and production are expected to increase steadily, but profitability may be under pressure [54][61]. - In 2025, new MTO production capacity was about 236 million tons/year, and more capacity will be added in 2026. However, new capacity may squeeze industry profits, and attention should be paid to the operating rate fluctuations of external - procurement MTO devices [61]. - In 2025, acetic acid production capacity expanded significantly, but competition intensified, and profitability was under pressure. In 2026, capacity growth may slow down, but demand for methanol will remain stable [65]. - In 2025, formaldehyde was affected by the real - estate industry, with low profitability and an average operating rate of 43.76% as of December 12. It is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 [69][70]. - In 2025, MTBE exports were strong, with an average operating rate of 62.85% as of December 12 and a cumulative export volume of 3.6287 million tons from January to October. However, in 2026, the export momentum may weaken, and the overall demand will be moderately weak [71]. Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the domestic methanol supply is expected to remain loose, and imports may be similar to or slightly higher than in 2025. Port inventory will remain at a moderately high level [73]. - MTO will provide rigid support for methanol demand, but profitability may be under pressure. Traditional downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak [74]. - Strategies include seizing buying opportunities in Q1 based on import reductions and exploring structured opportunities such as spot - futures arbitrage [2][75].

港口库存持续创新高，甲醇延续弱势 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年9月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率提升，截止9月10日，鄂市煤矿开工率71%，榆林地区煤矿开工率44%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量400万吨附近，需求减弱，坑口价延续下跌。供应端，原料煤 价格下跌，西北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在660元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。进口端，口 端，美金昨日价格继续下跌，进口顺挂稳定，伊朗装置基本正常，非伊开工稳定，外盘开工高位，欧美市场稳定，中欧价差小幅扩大， 东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗9月已装30万吨，印度减量采购伊朗货源，伊朗降价招标，中国流向增加，非伊货源稳定，9月进口预期调 高至140万吨，美金商逢高获利出货积极，太仓到货较多，持续累库。需求端，传统下游进入淡季，开 ...

伊朗装船高位运行，甲醇冲高回落 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年12月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止12月6日，鄂市煤矿开工率76%，榆林地区煤矿开工率46%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量400万吨附近，需求下滑，坑口价连续下跌。供应端，煤制甲 醇利润在380-460元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。进口端，美金价格稳定，伊朗减点下降，进口顺挂稳定，伊 朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开工提升，外盘开工低位小幅提升，欧美市场小幅反弹，内外价差震荡，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12 月已装18万吨，非伊货源部分延迟至1月，1月进口预期上调至125万吨左右，阳鸿后期到货增加，美金商逢高获利出货。需求端， MTO装置开工率小幅回升，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置稳定；南京诚志1期29.5万吨/年M ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-26 继续关注伊朗装置冬检进展 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润583元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1988元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差521元/吨（+10），内蒙南线1970元/吨（+50）；山东临沂2185元/吨（+5）， 鲁南基差318元/吨（+15）；河南2065元/吨（+25），河南基差198元/吨（+35）；河北2125元/吨（+45），河北基差318 元/吨（+55）。隆众内地工厂库存358700吨（-10550），西北工厂库存188500吨（-17000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 246320吨（+920），西北工厂待发订单125400吨（+8900）。 内地方面，西南卡贝乐开始限气停车，但同时久泰托县重新复工，内地供应压力仍偏高；MTO方面，阳煤MTO检 修中，鲁西MTO低负荷状态；关注联泓二期MTO年底投产进度。传统下游方面，醋酸开工仍维持低位，甲醛淡季 低负荷，仅MTBE开工偏高。 策略 港口方面：太仓甲醇2060元/吨（+7），太仓基差-7元/吨（+17），CFR中国23 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Methanol continues its downward trend. The 01 contract may continue to decline as the fundamentals offer no support, and the pressure on ports is hard to relieve due to increased shipments from Iran. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions, and conduct 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [1]. - The short - term trend of methanol is range - bound, with the 2601 contract expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is suggested to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. - The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Methanol is in a downward trend. The 01 contract's fundamentals lack support. Although there was a rebound in the market due to industry protests against low prices, inland methanol enterprises still have profits. The increased shipments from Iran have made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Despite the relatively strong thermal coal prices, they cannot provide cost support for Henan methanol. The higher - than - usual temperature in Iran may delay gas restrictions until mid - November. The November shipments have exceeded expectations, and port inventories are likely to remain high. Later, the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2036, with the futures price dropping significantly and the 01 basis strengthening by 10 [11]. - **Calendar - spread Strategy**: This week, as the shipments from Iran continued to accelerate, the market no longer expects early gas restrictions this year, and the 1 - 5 spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation [11]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The 2601 contract is expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - There are records of the implementation status of previous strategies, including the holding of short - put, short - call, 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategies, as well as the stop - profit of long positions [19]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - There are various charts showing the inventory situation of methanol ports, including the weekly inventory seasonality of Chinese methanol ports, the inventory seasonality of methanol ports in different regions, and the inventory situation of warehouses in Jiangsu Province [35]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [61]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management under different scenarios, including using futures and options for hedging [61]. - **Positive Information**: The second - phase 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong is expected to start production as early as the end of November [62]. - **Negative Information**: Iran's shipments were 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, and 0.69 million tons in November [63]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The fundamentals offer limited support. Although producers in the production areas have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics and transportation, they still intend to maintain low inventories and mainly sell at reduced prices in the first half of the week. Downstream demand has decreased, and some traders are short - selling, causing the market in the sales areas to decline synchronously [65]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Inland Market**: In the second half of the week, the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in Inner Mongolia boosted market sentiment. As the methanol prices in the production areas have reached the bottom, traders are cautious about short - selling, and some buyers have entered the market for procurement, leading to a halt in the decline and a stabilization in the inland market [66]. - **Port Market**: Under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak downward trend next week [66]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking - There are various price charts showing the prices of coal, methanol in different markets, and related products over different time periods [77][78][82]. 4.2 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the production costs and profits of methanol produced from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, coke oven gas) in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Shandong, etc.) [89][90][93]. 4.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly operating rates of different methanol production methods (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal combined - alcohol, natural gas, etc.) and downstream products (MTO, MTBE, acetic acid, etc.) [96][99][100]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the import volumes of methanol from different countries (Malaysia, Venezuela, Iran), the external market structure of methanol, and the import profits of Iranian methanol [129][130]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and the weekly production volumes of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol [133][134][136]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, and inventory changes [140]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in domestic methanol plants, there were both maintenance and restarts in the Northwest. Some plants in Shandong and Inner Mongolia restarted, while some plants in East China were shut down for maintenance. Some plants in Central China restarted but have not yet produced products [141]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO plants such as Xingxing and Chengzhi have resumed or increased their loads. The second - phase MTO of Lianhong is planned to be completed earlier than expected and has started stockpiling. Iran maintains high shipments [145].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of a weakening fundamental situation, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid operations are at a low level, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With the current high domestic methanol operation rate and upstream methanol factories still focused on inventory clearance, the supply-demand contradiction is unlikely to ease in the short term. Considering the current low methanol prices and the cautious short - selling by traders, which provides support for the bottom price, the expected decline is limited. In ports, under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. Attention should be paid to subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian shipments, and coastal MTO operation rates. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2070 - 2110 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamental situation is expected to be weak, with the price expected to fluctuate weakly between 2070 - 2110. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2080 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2 for the 01 contract, indicating the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. As of November 6, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.61 tons, with a slight decrease of 1.68 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.28 tons to 80.55 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [4]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Iranian methanol operation rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation later this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is an expected concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operation rates have significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 694 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port decreased by 2 US dollars/ton to 242 US dollars/ton, and the import cost decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 2132 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 2082 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 19 yuan/ton to -22 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operation Rate Data**: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. Operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased, with decreases of 2.39%, 1.22%, and 3.55% respectively [8]. - **Inventory Data**: East China port inventory increased by 0.62 tons to 78.8 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 0.30 tons to 49.81 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, and some plants have experienced temporary shutdowns due to equipment failures or other reasons [57]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are generally operating normally. Some plants in Qatar and other regions are under maintenance [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have reduced operations, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy and Qinghai Salt Lake. Some plants are expected to be put into operation, such as the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Baofeng [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is currently in a weak and volatile state. Although there has been a slight reduction in port inventory, the market is still constrained by high inventory levels, and the fundamental improvement is not significant. There is significant supply pressure, and the impact of potential winter gas restrictions in Iran on production and the timing are uncertain. Given the high inventory and potential positive factors such as winter gas restrictions, an overly bearish view is not advisable. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices have continued to decline recently, with recent basis quotes around 01 - 45 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for November paper goods at 01 - 5 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis of Each Contract**: The basis quotes for methanol have strengthened this week, with the basis quote for November paper goods around 01 - 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis of Each Region**: Coastal basis has fluctuated, and inland basis has also been volatile. The inland market prices, especially those in the northwest region, have fluctuated this week [22][31]. - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions has weakened. The current spread is still in a reverse - arbitrage trend. The PP - 3MA spread has weakened this week, and attention can be paid to potential opportunities to short PP and long MA in the future [40][49][55]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - **Production and Operation**: Recently, there have been many newly - added maintenance devices, and the methanol operating rate is slightly lower than last year. As maintenance devices gradually resume production, methanol production has increased slightly [60][64]. - **Downstream Operation**: The dimethyl ether operating rate has fluctuated, the formaldehyde operating rate has rebounded, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest has been high and volatile, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins devices has fluctuated this week, and MTO profits have slightly increased [69][72][75]. 4. Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although there is high inventory pressure, there are also positive factors such as potential winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading strategy, with a small long - position allocation after a rebound driver emerges. The hedging strategy is to wait and see [3][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro sentiment was released after the meeting, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in nearly 10 years. Driven by the macro sentiment, the main methanol price first declined and then rose last week. However, from the perspective of the methanol's fundamental situation, the outlook for the 01 contract is not optimistic [2]. - The current shipping volume from Iran is around 800,000 tons. Affected by sanctions, the expected shipping volume in October is around 800,000 tons. The temperature in Iran is still warmer than last year, and the mainstream expectation for plant shutdown is mid - November. Considering Iran's price concessions, the expected shipping volume from Iran has been adjusted [2]. - On the non - Iranian side, the operation rate of Tebah has dropped significantly due to port fees, and it is estimated that the non - Iranian shipping volume will decline to below 500,000 tons, but the actual situation needs further assessment. Chile and New Zealand may fill the gap [2]. - In the domestic market, Baofeng made external procurement inquiries in the second half of the week but did not make actual purchases. Yangmei is expected to shut down for 40 days starting early November. Luxi MTO reduced external procurement due to profit reasons, and Luqing's methanol - to - hydrogen unit was shut down for maintenance for one month, both of which were unplanned [2]. - Overall, the inventory accumulation at ports has started to level off. Due to unloading and sanctions, the inventory endpoint in October has been lowered, but the inventory endpoint for the 01 contract has increased. The import cost is about 100 yuan lower than the 01 contract's futures price [2]. - The short - term trading focus is on the Sino - US negotiation. In October, Iran's shipping volume remained high, reaching 800,000 tons, and the market has little expectation for early gas restrictions this year [8]. - The long - term controversy lies in how to reduce the port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601 contract, with a reverse spread for the 1 - 5 spread. The process is affected by macro sentiment [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The macro - led methanol price movement contrasts with the weak fundamental situation of the 01 contract. Iran's shipping volume, non - Iranian supply, domestic plant operations, and port inventory all impact the market [2]. - Recommendations include reducing the short - put position for the 01 contract and selling call options for the 01 contract [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: No specific content provided. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: This week, the price of the methanol 01 contract was 2279. With high shipping volume from Iran and no vessel pick - up due to port closures, the 01 basis weakened [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: As Iran's shipping volume continued to accelerate, reaching 800,000 tons, and with little expectation for early gas restrictions this year, the 1 - 5 spread showed a reverse spread [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term, with the 2601 contract operating between 2250 - 2350. The recommendation is to reduce the short - put position for the 2601 contract and sell call options [13]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Information on inland inventory includes the inventory of northwest methanol (excluding MTO), MTO inventory in the northwest, and inventory of methanol plants in the south and north lines, as well as national plant inventory and net plant inventory [22][26][27]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Information on port inventory includes the weekly inventory of Chinese methanol ports, regional port inventories (such as in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, etc.), and related data on port to - arrival volume, stockpiles, and shipping volume [37][39][40] 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [63]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding hedging ratios and entry intervals [63]. - **Positive Information**: Sanctions have led to some vessels being unable to dock and unload, and importer replenishment has slightly strengthened the basis. Lianhong Phase II's 450,000 - ton MTO unit is expected to start production as early as the end of November [66]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September and 800,000 tons so far in October [67]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On October 26th, Chinese and US economic and trade officials held discussions and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [68]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - In the domestic market, the performance of production areas was weaker than that of sales areas. Although traders actively purchased at the beginning of the week, the prices in production areas declined due to factors such as no external procurement from northwest olefin plants and the intention of methanol plants to maintain low inventory [69]. - This week, the 1 - 5 spread strengthened mainly due to sanctions on Iran [71]. 4. Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report tracks the prices of coal in Erdos and Qinhuangdao ports, as well as the market prices of methanol in Shandong and Taicang. It also includes information on methanol warehouse receipts and valuation [74][76][79]. 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions are analyzed, along with the profits of MTO units and traditional downstream industries [85][87][90]. 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The operation rates of major methanol enterprises, different production methods (natural gas - to - methanol, coke oven gas - to - methanol), and downstream industries (MTO, traditional downstream) are tracked, as well as the weekly production volumes of different types of methanol [93][97][102]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes from different countries, the external market structure of methanol, import profits, and price spreads between different regions are analyzed [129][130][131]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - The capacity utilization rate, production volume, and operation rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants are tracked [135][136][137]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet for 2025 shows the daily and monthly production, import, consumption, and inventory data of methanol, including different production types (CTO, non - CTO), demand sectors (MTO, non - MTO), and inventory in ports and inland areas [138]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in the domestic methanol industry, some plants in North China increased their operation rates, some in Central China recovered, and in the Northwest, there were both restarts and shutdowns for maintenance [139]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO units such as Xingxing and Chengzhi resumed or increased their operation rates. New demand projects like Lianhong Phase II's MTO unit are ahead of schedule and have started stockpiling. Iran maintains a high shipping volume [140].

Report Information - Report Title: 【MA周报20251012】制裁冲击或难抵高供应压力 [1][2] - Date: 2025-10-12 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Methanol's downward space is limited, with support at the [2200] price level. Although the current supply is high and demand is average, there are strong expectations for winter restrictions on Iranian devices and the peak season of the 01 contract in the future, which will improve the supply-demand situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cost, Supply, and Demand - **Cost and Profit**: The price of动力煤is mainly stable with a weak trend. The production profit of the coal - to - methanol end is at a high level, while the natural gas - to - methanol is under pressure [7]. - **Supply**: Domestic and foreign methanol device starts are recovering. In Iran, some devices have restarted, and in other regions, some devices have experienced maintenance and restarts [7]. - **Demand**: After the holiday, the price of MTO is relatively firm, and the profit of MTO has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [7]. 2. Regional Price and Logistics - **Regional Price**: The spot price has differentiated this week. The port price rebounded after following the futures price down, showing an overall upward trend, while the inland price has slightly declined [19]. - **Freight**: After the holiday, as the transportation capacity recovers, the freight rate has dropped significantly [40]. - **Logistics Window**: The domestic methanol trade flows from north to south and from west to east. The opening and closing of the logistics window help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand imbalances [48]. 3. Production - End Profit and Start - Up - **Production - End Profit**: The coal - to - methanol profit is high, while the natural gas - to - methanol profit is under pressure. The profit of different regions and processes varies [66]. - **Domestic Start - Up and Output**: The start - up rate has further recovered this week and is currently at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The production capacity has increased, and the output of different processes also shows different trends [101]. 4. Import and Export - **Import Profit and Price Difference**: Globally, methanol prices are mainly falling. The import profit and price difference between regions vary, and attention should be paid to the price difference between Southeast Asia and China [128]. - **External - Disk Start - Up and Output**: The external - disk start - up rate is rising. Iranian devices have restarted, and the output in different regions also shows different trends [147]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: Affected by typhoons and high imports from Iran and non - Iran regions, the net import volume in August reached a record high, and the import pressure in subsequent months remains high [178]. 5. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream**: After the holiday, the MTO price is relatively firm, and the profit has slightly deteriorated but is still around the same level as last year. The operation of external - procurement MTO factories is stable, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in the fourth quarter [184]. - **Traditional Downstream**: The downstream demand is relatively flat, and the start - up rate has slightly declined compared with before the holiday. The supply and demand situation of different traditional downstream industries varies [224]. 6. Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: The inland inventory has increased by 1.95 million tons to 33.94 million tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has decreased by 15.78 million tons to 11.52 million tons. The inventory has seasonally accumulated during the holiday, but the overall increase is not large [8][278]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased by 5.1 million tons to 154.32 million tons compared with last week, with an increase of 4.78 million tons in East China and 0.32 million tons in South China [8].