Group 1: Market Overview - Recent turmoil in Iran has raised investor concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices to the highest level since early December 2025 [1] - Methanol futures prices have shown a gradual rebound since January 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and escalating situations in the Middle East [1] - Domestic methanol port inventories remain high, with the 2605 contract still operating under a "weak reality, strong expectations" framework [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - As of December 2025, China's methanol production reached 101.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [2] - The operating rate of coal-based methanol plants was 103.6%, up 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, while natural gas-based methanol plants saw a decrease to 48.4%, down 2.5 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Methanol imports in November 2025 were 1.4176 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [2] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - As of January 8, 2026, domestic methanol port inventories rose to 1.5372 million tons, with expectations of maintaining high levels in January, which may exert pressure on near-term contract prices [3] - The inventory levels of inland methanol enterprises were around 447,700 tons, with slight price adjustments observed from manufacturers [3] - The market anticipates a significant decrease in methanol shipments from Iran in January, which could impact supply dynamics [3] Group 4: Downstream Demand - Domestic methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities are expected to gradually restart by late January, although traditional downstream demand remains weak [4] - The operating rate for olefins was 89.28%, reflecting a month-on-month increase, while other downstream products showed varied performance in their operating rates [4] - The coal market remains stable, with normal production levels in major coal-producing regions, although demand is slightly increasing due to colder temperatures [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - High port inventories continue to suppress market sentiment for methanol, but global geopolitical disturbances warrant close monitoring of the situation in Iran [5] - Despite expectations for the restart of some MTO facilities, caution is advised regarding the economic viability of these facilities if prices rise [5] - The methanol market is expected to remain in a "weak reality, strong expectations" state, with high inventory levels limiting upward price movement and a likelihood of wide fluctuations [6]