Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated August 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, but geopolitical situation easing weakens safe - haven demand, and dollar fluctuations limit the upside of gold prices. The market awaits Powell's speech at the global central bank conference. Gold ETFs and long - term structural buying remain the pillars of demand [3] Details - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related indicators such as COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in graphs [4] - Gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories in SHFE and COMEX are shown [12][14][15] Group 3: Copper Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes next week and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices. The strong support of the dollar index puts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [16] Details - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads, are provided. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,690 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [17][20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate processing fees, and warehouse receipts data are also presented [27][31][33] Group 4: Aluminum Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For aluminum, the US tariff expansion has a certain impact on China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Aluminum prices are likely to correct rather than reverse considering the September peak - season expectation and rate - cut expectation. For alumina, the fundamentals are weak, with supply in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [35][36] Details - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. For instance, the latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,630 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [37][49][55] Group 5: Zinc Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, smelting profit has recovered, and the supply is gradually changing from tight to excessive. The mine supply is loose. On the demand side, the traditional off - season is weak. LME inventory is decreasing with a certain squeeze - out risk. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate based on macro - observation [62] Details - Zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are shown. The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16% [63][71][75] Group 6: Nickel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventory. Nickel iron is still relatively firm in the short term. Stainless steel prices are weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are stable. Future trends depend on macro - level guidance [78] Details - Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data are presented. The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,610 yuan/ton [79] Group 7: Tin Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro data from the US is in line with expectations. The repeated delay of Myanmar's tin mine full - resumption of production supports tin prices. In the short term, tin prices may fluctuate [92] Details - Tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indicators such as LME tin spreads are provided. The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 265,930 yuan/ton [93][98][102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market's sensitivity to news is decreasing. In the short term, prices may rebound due to supply - side disturbances and enter a wide - range oscillation [107] Details - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,960 yuan/ton [108][111][115] Group 9: Silicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The increase in polysilicon production schedules boosts the demand for industrial silicon. In the medium term, the downside space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [117] Details - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices, spreads, and production and inventory data are presented. The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.27% [117][118][132]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation rebound, with a focus on short-term trading strategies until a clear breakout occurs [4][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a wide range of fluctuations, opening lower and then rising, with a minimum of 3323 and a maximum of 3358, before settling around 3326 [3]. - The current trend is identified as a bullish one, but the strength of the upward movement is under pressure due to a stronger dollar [4]. - The key resistance level for gold is set at 3360; if this level is broken, further upward movement is anticipated [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver showed limited upward momentum, peaking at 38.2 before retreating, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trend above the support level of 37.5 [5][6]. - The target for silver is set at 38.5 and potentially 39 if upward momentum is strong enough [5]. Domestic Gold and Silver Contracts - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets of 785 and 790 depending on market strength [5]. - The domestic silver contract (沪银) is also projected to remain bullish as long as it stays above the support level of 9200, with potential targets of 9400 and 9550 [6]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil rebounded from a support level of 62, with a current price around 63.2, indicating a low-level oscillation [6]. - The focus is on whether the 62 support level holds; if it breaks, further declines may occur, potentially reaching 58 [6]. Fuel Oil Market Analysis - Domestic fuel oil is currently weak but is expected to hold above 2800, with potential for upward movement if a rebound occurs [7].

当天9月交割的白银期货价格收盘上涨4.5美分，报收于每盎司38.065美元，涨幅为0.12%。12月交割的 白银期货价格收盘上涨4美分，报收于每盎司38.560美元，涨幅为0.1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 盘中金价一度冲高并再度触及3400美元关口。 分析来看，市场关注美乌双边会晤和即将召开的杰克逊霍尔央行年会，整体观望情绪浓重，金价短期缺 少明确的上涨或下跌驱动。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普18日在白宫与到访的乌克兰总统泽连斯基举行会晤后表示，下一步将筹备与 俄罗斯总统普京的美俄乌三方领导人会晤，他期待取得好成果。特朗普与普京15日在美国阿拉斯加州安 克雷奇市举行会晤。双方表示，会晤"具有建设性""富有成果"，但未就俄乌停火等议题达成任何协议。 与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔将在8月21日至23日的杰克逊霍尔会议上发表讲话，市场也期望从中获得 更多关于美联储货币政策前景的信息。 当前，市场对美联储在9月重启降息的预期高涨，主要分歧在于降息幅度的大小。据CME"美联储观 察"工具最新数据，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为16.9%，降息25个基点的概率为83.1%。但有分析 师表示，市场有部分投资者押注美联储9月或 ...

汇通财经APP讯——周五（8月15日）亚市早盘，现货黄金在隔夜创下的近两周低点附近徘徊，交投于3333美元 /盎司附近。金价在周四遭遇重 挫，现货黄金下跌0.6%至每盎司3335.25美元，期货 黄金收低0.7%报3383.2美元。美国 最新公布的经济数据犹如一盆冷水，浇灭了市场对美联 储 激进降息的期待，导致黄金这一传统避险资产遭遇抛售潮。 通胀猛虎再度抬头 尽管短期遭遇挫折，但不少分析师仍对黄金中长期前景保持乐观。盛宝银行的Hansen认为，美联储最终仍将不得不在对抗通胀和支持经济之间 做出艰难选择。而美国银行技术分析 显示，10年期国债收益率可能出现"死亡交叉"，预示着长期利率下行趋势可能延续，这或将为黄金提供 潜在支撑。 Macquarie Group的Thierry Wizman指出，下一个关键节点将是本月晚些时候公布的支出价格指数。如果数据显示服务业通胀广泛升温，市场可 能会进一步调整对美联储政策的预期。而美联储主席鲍威尔下周在杰克森霍尔的讲话，也将为市场提供重要指引。 美国劳工部公布的7月生产者价格指数（PPI）同比飙升3.3%，远超市场预期的2.5%，创下三年来最大涨幅。更令人担忧的是，这一上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price lacks obvious driving force and moves towards the path of least resistance. The market is waiting for the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The overall oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1] - For fuel oil, the supply is sufficient, and the subsequent upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [3] - The asphalt market in August is expected to gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [3] - The polyester market is expected to have short - term oscillatory prices for PTA and strong low - level support for ethylene glycol, and attention should be paid to device changes [4] - The short - term rubber price is expected to be strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention to factors such as production during the peak season and anti - dumping investigations [6] - Methanol is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price oscillation [6] - Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited upward space and narrow - range price oscillation [8] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly, with supply remaining high and demand gradually recovering [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. However, OPEC+ production increased in July. The EIA report shows that US oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but may decline in 2026. API data shows changes in US oil inventories. The oil price is oscillatory [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and the upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic, with an oscillatory trend [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover with the improvement of weather. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, polyester contracts showed different trends. The supply of PTA and ethylene glycol is recovering, and the prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to device changes [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber contracts rose. The short - term rubber price is strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol showed certain price characteristics. The Iranian device load has recovered, and the port inventory has increased, but the downward space is limited, with a near - weak and far - strong structure and narrow - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, polyolefin showed certain price and profit characteristics. The supply will remain high after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price showed different trends in different regions. The supply is high, the demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 12 and 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. In July, OPEC+ production increased, and Saudi Arabia's market supply and reported production showed different trends [11] - The EIA report shows that due to the improvement of well productivity, US oil production will reach a record high in 2025, but oil price decline will lead to a decrease in production in 2026 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][33][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [47][48][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, etc. [62][63][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

来源：领峰贵金属 一、基本面： 空单：3382.0附近尝试做空，止损3392.0，目标3377.0-3350.0附近。 白银（SILVER1000）： 美国总统特朗普周五在社交媒体上表示，他将于8月15日在阿拉斯加会见俄罗斯总统普京，就结束乌克 兰战争进行磋商。NBC新闻报导，白宫正考虑邀请乌克兰总统泽连斯基前往阿拉斯加。彭博新闻报导 称，美国和俄罗斯正寻求达成一项协议，以结束乌克兰战争，并将俄在军事入侵中夺取的领土纳入其控 制范围。泽连斯基表示，乌克兰在领土问题上不能违反宪法，并称乌克兰人不会把自己的土地拱手让给 占领者；任何没有基辅参与的解决方案都是违背和平的方案。欧洲领导人对特朗普与普京举行会晤表示 欢迎，同时强调有必要继续向莫斯科施压，并保护乌克兰和欧洲的安全利益。 自美联储上月决定维持利率不变以来，决策者的态度似乎正在发生转变。其中多位对劳动力市场表现出 越来越多的不安，并暗示愿意甚至迫切希望在9月就开始降息。亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克称，就业人 数确实表明，就业方面的风险比以前高得多，他将仔细观察，但仍然认为2025年只降息一次是合适的。 圣路易斯联储总裁穆萨莱姆表示，美联储的双重任务都面临着风险。 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-08 地缘局势趋缓，成本端支撑继续转弱 市场分析 1、8月7日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3528元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨11元/吨，涨幅 0.31%；持仓211556手，环比上涨712手，成交155921手，环比上升21495手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3880—4086元/吨；山东，3550—3970元/吨；华南，3580—3630元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日川渝市场沥青现货价格持续下跌，华北市场沥青现货价格窄幅上涨，其余地区暂时以持稳为主。普京将与特 朗普会晤，地缘局势呈现缓和信号，原油价格趋势继续转弱，沥青成本端支撑松动。就沥青自身基本面来看，供 需两弱格局大体延续，库存仍处于低位，还未出现显著累库的信号，市场短期压力有限但情绪一般。抛开成本端 的带动外，沥青来自基本面的上行驱动有限，因此如果未来油价连续下跌，则沥青市场价格也将跟随进一步走弱。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% as expected. The meeting's signals were relatively neutral compared to pre - meeting expectations, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. Fed Chair Powell did not clearly guide on the future rate - cut path, and the threshold for future rate cuts remains uncertain. Market rate - cut expectations retreated after the meeting, causing fluctuations in major assets [1][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pre - meeting Concerns: Is it the Prelude to a September Rate Cut? - Since the last meeting, US economic data has shown resilience, with some indicators having inflection signs. In June, core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, and the labor market cooled with 7.437 million job openings. GDP growth was affected by net exports, and the concern about stagflation remained [2]. - US and major economies' tariff policies became clearer in July, and market risk preferences continued to recover. Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates, but the market considered it a low - probability event that the Fed's independence would be impacted [2]. - Two key points for the meeting were whether the Fed would provide more guidance on the rate - cut path while keeping rates unchanged, and whether Fed理事沃勒 and鲍曼 would vote against the rate - hold decision, which would increase the uncertainty of the rate - cut expectation for the year [3]. 2. Meeting Content: No Guidance on Rate Cuts in September and Beyond, Cooling Market Expectations - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Fed理事鲍曼 and沃勒 voted against, preferring a 0.25% rate cut [4]. - At the press conference, Powell did not guide on a September rate cut, cooled the market's September rate - cut expectation. He thought the job market was balanced, inflation was moving towards 2%, service inflation slowed while commodity inflation rose, and economic growth slowed due to reduced consumer spending. The removal of the "uncertainty has decreased" statement had no special meaning, and the process of final tariff estimation was not near the end [5]. - The meeting emphasized economic cooling factors and showed internal differences. The signal was relatively neutral, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. After the press conference, market rate - cut expectations retreated, and major assets fluctuated [6][7]. 3. Market Outlook: Tracking the Continuity of Geopolitical and Economic Stability, and the Implementation of Anti - Involution and Domestic Demand Expansion - After the June meeting, the report proposed to track three macro contradictions: the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on risk preferences, the progress of tariff negotiations, and domestic policies on expanding domestic demand [8]. - Since the June meeting, the Israel - Iran issue was quickly resolved, geopolitical risks were under control, tariff levels were determined, and domestic "anti - involution" policies were moving from expectation to implementation, with fiscal policies showing more signs of strength [8]. - The Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude in July. Future macro contradictions should be observed from three aspects: geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and the smooth suspension of Sino - US tariffs, and the hedging effect of domestic policies on the decline in external demand [9][10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month [3] Core Viewpoints - PX/PTA prices follow the rise of oil prices. Geopolitical situations have disrupted oil prices, and the market is concerned about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The Middle - East situation also supports the rebound of oil prices. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's own fundamentals have little change, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a 0.4% increase compared to the previous period). After the terminal weaving replenished raw materials, the inventory pressure of filament factories decreased significantly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The short - fiber factory has different pressure levels, and the bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - The strategy includes a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, shorting PTA processing fees at high levels for cross - variety trading, and no cross - period trading strategy [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Price and Basis - The report presents figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [4][5] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [4][5] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [4][5] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [4][5] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [4][5] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4][5] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the spread between original and regenerated fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [4][5] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situations are disturbing oil prices, and concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and Middle - East tensions support oil price rebounds. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's fundamental supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes. Polyester load is currently strong, but the recovery of demand needs to be monitored. PF is affected by downstream production cuts, and PR's processing fees are expected to return to the range after repair [3][4][5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - The report presents polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure - polyester yarn start - up rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [86][91][95]