Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil supply and global demand dynamics [1][2][3] - The semiconductor industry is entering an AI-driven structural supercycle, with a shift in core bottlenecks from mature processes to advanced processes and cleanroom space [1][19] Core Insights and Arguments Geopolitical and Economic Impacts - April is a critical month for assessing the geopolitical situation, with expectations that if conflicts persist, oil prices may remain above $100, leading to insufficient pricing in equity markets, including US and Chinese stocks [2][4] - The market has already priced in pessimistic expectations for US Treasuries, gold, and copper, while equity markets have not fully reflected these concerns, indicating potential for an 8%-10% downward adjustment [4][8] Asset Pricing and Investment Strategies - Current market conditions suggest a need for strategic asset allocation based on the pricing of different assets. Bonds and gold are seen as having good left-side configuration value, while equities may face downward pressure if geopolitical tensions escalate [5][6][10] - The expectation of a delayed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve until late 2027 reflects a pessimistic outlook, which is not fully mirrored in equity valuations [4][10] Semiconductor Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market is experiencing a shift in demand driven by AI, with a focus on advanced packaging and cleanroom space becoming critical bottlenecks [1][19][24] - The supply-demand balance for memory chips remains tight, with a transition from "quantity over price" to strong contractual obligations, leading to price increases of 15%-20% per generation for advanced packaging equipment [1][20] Additional Important Insights - Central banks' gold purchasing behavior is constrained by foreign reserve limits, with some countries beginning to reduce their gold holdings, indicating a potential decline in future gold demand [11][12] - The current liquidity crisis in global assets reflects a "mini version" of past financial crises, with significant challenges for non-US institutions in obtaining dollars [1][16] - The semiconductor industry's capital expenditure is shifting towards targeted investments in AI-related production lines, with a focus on supply chain security [19][24] Conclusion - The geopolitical landscape and its impact on oil prices are critical for market expectations and asset pricing. The semiconductor industry is poised for growth driven by AI, but faces significant supply chain and production challenges. Investors should consider these dynamics when formulating strategies for asset allocation and risk management.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Asia - Pacific market is generally down, and the Q2 style leans towards fundamental verification. The market is affected by the situation of the US - Iran negotiation and the approaching earnings period [3]. - Geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran situation have a significant impact on the prices of various commodities, including precious metals, energy, and industrial metals. As the impact of the geopolitical situation is gradually digested, the market shows different trends [3]. - The supply - demand relationship of different commodities is also an important factor affecting prices. For example, some commodities are in short - term supply shortages, while others face oversupply problems [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Agricultural Products**: Sugarcane is expected to be strong; pork is expected to be weak; soybeans are expected to be weak in the short - term [3]. - **Industrial Products**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly; rebar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific stock index futures market is affected by geopolitical and fundamental factors. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Precious Metals**: With the easing of the US - Iran war, precious metals are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips in the appropriate price range [3]. - **Steel Products** - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: Rebar prices are supported by raw material prices, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Iron ore's short - term supply - demand pattern has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate in a certain range [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is affected by geopolitical risks and auction results, and it is recommended to wait and see. Coke follows the trend of coking coal, and it is also recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see. Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to production reduction expectations in the Middle East, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy long positions. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to operate according to the range [3]. - **New Energy and Chemical Products** - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are facing oversupply problems, and their prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or operate in a short - term range [3]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to be weak due to the cooling of supply concerns. Most chemical products are affected by geopolitical and oil price factors, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different situations [3]. - **Agricultural Products and Soft Commodities** - **Grains and Oils**: Soybean meal and pork prices are expected to be weak, while palm oil prices are expected to be strong. Corn prices have strong bottom support [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and cotton prices are recommended to hold long positions. Egg, apple, and jujube prices are expected to be weak [3]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [3].

1. Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The current shipping market is in the off - season, with supply of shipping capacity in April at a historically high level. The potential blockade risk in the Mandatory Straits has limited impact on European routes, and as the situation in the Hormuz Strait calms down, the market may return to the fundamental logic of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The April spot quotes are stable, but some airlines are cutting prices to attract cargo. Maersk's opening price for the first week of April is $2300 per large container, and the PA Alliance quotes $2500 per large container, while offline prices have dropped to $1800 - $1900, indicating weak demand [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the off - season and high supply, and the limited impact of the Mandatory Straits risk, focus on short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: Due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, the China export container shipping market is facing challenges. Most long - distance route freight rates have risen this week, driving up the comprehensive index. On March 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was 1826.77 points, up 7.0% from the previous period [8] - **European Routes**: The preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, better than expected. However, the eurozone's composite PMI in March dropped to 50.5, the lowest since May last year. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports was $1703/TEU, up 4.1% from the previous period [8] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weaker than those of European routes, and the market freight rate has slightly declined. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports was $2764/TEU, down 0.7% from the previous period [8] - **North American Routes**: The preliminary composite PMI in the US in March dropped to 51.4, hitting an 11 - month low. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports on March 27 was $2352/FEU and $3264/FEU respectively, up 14.5% and 11.7% from the previous period [8][9] - **Persian Gulf Routes**: The military conflict in the Middle East continues, and the freight rate continues to rise. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf base ports was $3728/TEU, up 12.2% from the previous period [9] - **Geopolitical News**: Trump plans to end the military action against Iran through diplomatic means; China has three ships passing through the Hormuz Strait; Iran has various statements and actions regarding the war and the Hormuz Strait, and has proposed a bill to charge ships passing through the Hormuz Strait [9] 4.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From March 23 to 30, 2026, the SCFIS for European routes increased by 3.5% (from 1693.26 to 1752.54), and the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 23.4% (from 1024.11 to 1263.4) [11] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of multiple contracts such as EC2604 - EC2612 on March 31, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes multiple charts related to shipping data, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base port freight rates, etc. [18][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - BU: Oscillating [1] - FU/LU: Bullish [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant collapse of the asphalt cracking spread and the extreme compression of production profits have led to a substantial shrinkage in domestic supply. Although the inventory is still at a high level, concerns about the continuous tightening of short - term supply are difficult to alleviate. With the gradual start of road demand in the north in the second quarter, the absolute price of asphalt is unlikely to decline significantly, and the slow repair of the cracking spread is more worthy of attention [2][79] - The fuel oil market has higher elasticity than the asphalt market. It is still in an oscillation period dominated by geopolitical games. The short - term risk is still the instability of supply, but in the long term, it will return to fundamental pricing. In the most optimistic scenario, the supply tension is expected to ease in late April. In the benchmark scenario, the supply gap will gradually converge, the cracking spread will weaken, and the high - low sulfur spread will gradually return to a reasonable level. Overall, no significant price correction is expected in the second quarter [3][79][80] Summary According to the Directory 1. Asphalt: Cracking Spread Collapse, Significant Supply Contraction - **Cost Increase and Profit Squeeze**: The US intervention in Venezuelan crude oil sales has led to a significant reduction in the discount of Merey crude oil, pushing up the production cost of local refineries. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March caused international oil prices to soar, while the increase in asphalt prices was far less than that of crude oil, resulting in a rapid decline in the cracking spread and production profits. The problem of raw material shortage is expected to persist in the second quarter [11][14][15] - **Substantial Supply Contraction and Limited Inventory Pressure**: In mid - March, major refineries reduced production or stopped shipping due to concerns about raw material shortages and increased losses. The output in March and April decreased significantly year - on - year. Overseas supply also shrank significantly. Although the current asphalt inventory is high, the short - term supply shortage makes the near - month price easy to rise and difficult to fall [21] - **Upcoming Demand and Price Support**: The second quarter is the recovery period of asphalt demand. Although the demand growth rate in the second quarter of 2026 may be lower than that in 2025, the early allocation of special bonds may support the improvement of demand. The key to the absolute price of asphalt lies in when the raw material shortage can be resolved, and the gradual return of the cracking spread is a more certain long - term trend [26][27] 2. Fuel Oil: Low - Sulfur Remains Relatively Strong, Focus on the Long - Term Return of Cracking Spread - **Disruption of Persian Gulf Fuel Oil Supply and Strong Cracking Spread**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28 cut off the only shipping route for Persian Gulf product exports, causing a supply gap of about 250,000 tons of high - sulfur fuel oil, accounting for about 20% of global demand. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from key refineries has also been affected [36][37][38] - **Differentiated Trends of High - and Low - Sulfur, Low - Sulfur Gaining the Upper Hand**: At the beginning of the geopolitical conflict, high - sulfur prices rose more strongly. However, as diesel prices soared, the relative relationship between high - and low - sulfur reversed, and the high - low sulfur spread began to widen. The term structure of fuel oil also showed different trends for high - and low - sulfur [45][46][48] - **Differentiated Supply and Demand in Ports, Stable Inventory in Singapore**: The fuel oil market fluctuations vary in different regions. The supply in the Middle East has been severely affected, while Singapore has shown more resilience due to the inflow of Russian goods. The demand has also been redistributed among ports. Although Singapore has buffered the supply impact, the low - sulfur blending pool has not been substantially alleviated [58][59][69] - **The Strait of Hormuz is the Key, Don't Be Over - Optimistic about Resumed Navigation**: The current situation has not been substantially alleviated. In the most optimistic scenario, supply relief in Singapore may occur in late April, and the price correction may occur at the end of the second quarter. In the benchmark scenario, the supply gap will gradually converge, and the high - low sulfur spread will gradually return to a reasonable level. In the pessimistic scenario, fuel oil prices will continue to soar [70][75][77] 3. Summary and Outlook - The marginal changes in the supply side are the key factors affecting the asphalt and fuel oil markets in the second quarter. The main price ranges of BU, FU, and LU in the second quarter are expected to be [3800,4800], [4000,5000], and [4500,6500] yuan/ton respectively, and the high - low sulfur spread in Singapore is expected to be in the range of [100,200] US dollars/ton. If the geopolitical situation does not change significantly, opportunities to buy the asphalt cracking spread and the high - low sulfur spread at low prices can be considered. If the seasonal rigid demand for asphalt recovers strongly, the opportunity for the BU - FU spread to widen can also be considered [79][80]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report gives a "shockingly strong" rating for crude oil in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [1][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation has escalated, causing crude oil to be shockingly strong. Due to the recent actions of the US and the military conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran, the international crude oil futures rebounded significantly, and it is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a shockingly strong pattern on Tuesday [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. The concepts of "stronger/weaker" only apply to intraday views, not to short - term and medium - term views [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - **Crude Oil (SC)**: The intraday, medium - term, and reference views are all shockingly strong. The core logic is that the US has taken actions in the Middle East, and there have been continuous military conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran over the weekend, leading to a significant rebound in international crude oil futures. The domestic crude oil futures maintained a shockingly sorted pattern on the night session of Monday, and are expected to be shockingly strong on Tuesday [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market showed a volatile recovery trend last week. Most indices opened lower on Monday and gradually recovered, but still ended the week with losses. The ChiNext Index led the decline, with a weekly drop of 1.67%. The non - bank financial and computer sectors were weak, with weekly declines of about 3.98% and 3.43% respectively, while the non - ferrous metals sector was prominent, with a weekly gain of 2.78% [1] - The market focus remained on the geopolitical situation. The geopolitical situation was still tense, and the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz supported high - level volatile energy prices. Overseas, the US dollar index continued to fluctuate strongly, and the US March PMI indicators were divided, leading to a further decline in market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Domestically, the RMB exchange rate remained in a strong - oscillating pattern [1] Group 2: Options Market - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options rebounded. The IV of the STAR 50 options (IV = 29%) and ChiNext ETF options (IV = 24%) rose above the median of the past year. The IV of 50 and 300 options was in the range of 15% - 17%, and that of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options was in the range of 25% - 28%. The PCR of most financial options was in the range of 60% - 80%, slightly lower than the previous week [2] Group 3: Strategy Outlook - The market may continue the volatile pattern, and the implied volatility of financial options will continue to rise. It is advisable to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, and consider selling out - of - the - money put options on the corresponding indices. For the STAR 50 Index, which has large recent fluctuations and high static valuations, if holding the underlying assets, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options. If there are substantial spot gains, one can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options. The CSI 1000 - 2606 index futures basis has converged, and one can consider rolling over to the 2609 contract with a higher basis to form a covered call strategy [3] Group 4: Market Data - The report provides detailed data on various financial options, including the closing price, price change, IV, ΔIV (daily), historical quantile, IV median in the past year, option trading volume, and PCR of multiple underlying assets such as the SSE 50ETF, SSE 50 Index, CSI 300ETF, CSI 500ETF, CSI 1000 Index, ChiNext ETF, STAR 50ETF, and Shenzhen 100ETF [5] - It also presents data on the price, price change, IV of different months, and related quantiles of various underlying assets over different time periods, as well as information on IV term structure, intraday IV trends, skew index, smile curve, and the relationship between IV and trading volume [7][10][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. Rebar shows a structure of decreasing production and increasing demand, with inventory reduction accelerating further. Hot-rolled coil sees both production and demand increase, and the decline in total inventory slows down slightly, with factory and social inventories decreasing. Currently, the terminal demand for steel is slowly releasing, and the fundamentals are seasonally improving. Traders are actively selling, and the market sentiment is cautious. Low-price transactions are acceptable, while high-price demand is somewhat suppressed. Based on the current cost support, the downside space for steel prices is limited, and they will maintain a range-bound operation. However, attention should be paid to the change in market risk aversion sentiment approaching the Tomb-Sweeping Festival holiday [3] Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Last week, as news of the easing of the geopolitical situation was released, the prices of raw materials were slightly pressured. At the same time, the replenishment momentum of terminal demand slowed down, and the acceptance of high prices was limited, resulting in a slight price correction [7] - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions and contracts showed different changes, and the prices of imported iron ore and some coking coal also changed. The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil decreased [7] 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Production - Rebar production decreased slightly, with a weekly output of 197.87 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.00%). The national hot-rolled coil weekly output was 305.61 tons (a week-on-week increase of 1.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%) [10][13] - Both the blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar decreased. The blast furnace weekly output of rebar was 165.21 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.13%), and the electric furnace weekly output was 32.66 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 4.25% and a year-on-year increase of 16.39%) [14][17] Operating Rate - Both the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (a week-on-week increase of 1.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.13%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.82% (a week-on-week increase of 2.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.15%) [18][21][23] Profit - The profit of rebar decreased slightly, with a profit of +55 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 62 yuan/ton). The profit of hot-rolled coil increased slightly, with a profit of +16 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 18 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 77 yuan/ton) [24][26] Demand - The demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil increased. The apparent consumption of rebar was 225.37 tons (a week-on-week increase of 8.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.14%), and the 5-day average of national building materials transactions was 9.45 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.04%). The apparent consumption of hot-rolled coil was 313.63 tons (a week-on-week increase of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.40%) [27][31] Inventory - The inventory of rebar decreased for two consecutive weeks, with the factory and social inventories continuing to decline. The rebar factory inventory was 219.16 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 7.21% and a year-on-year increase of 4.60%), the rebar social inventory was 642.75 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.60% and a year-on-year increase of 5.44%), and the total rebar inventory was 861.91 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.09% and a year-on-year increase of 5.23%) [32][36] - The decline in hot-rolled coil inventory slowed down, with both the social and factory inventories decreasing. The hot-rolled coil factory inventory was 83.85 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.52%), the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 369.42 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.84% and a year-on-year increase of 22.69%), and the total hot-rolled coil inventory was 453.27 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.74% and a year-on-year increase of 14.47%) [37][41] Downstream Industries - In the real estate market, the sales of commercial housing improved week-on-week, while the land market transactions decreased week-on-week. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 18.39% week-on-week and decreased by 18.79% year-on-year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 66.04% week-on-week and 62.77% year-on-year [42][44] - In the automotive market, the production and sales of automobiles decreased seasonally in February, with a year-on-year decline. In February 2026, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively [45][47] 03 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar contracted, the basis of hot-rolled coil expanded, and the 5-10 spread of rebar and hot-rolled coil fluctuated within a narrow range. The coil-to-rebar spread fluctuated at a high level, and the 5-9 spread of iron ore contracted [49][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that the crude oil market is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil (SC) are all "volatile and bullish" [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content - **Price and Market Performance** - The price of domestic crude oil futures maintained an upward trend in the night session on Friday, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern on Monday [5]. - **Driving Logic** - The US is taking actions such as redeploying troops to the Middle East and Trump signaling a cease - fire and peace talks with Iran to ease market tensions and boost risk appetite [5]. - Over the weekend, there were continuous military conflicts between the US and Iran, with the US and Israel attacking Iran's civilian infrastructure in Tehran, and Iran attacking important industrial facilities in Israel and Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries, leading to a significant rebound in international crude oil futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on methanol 2605 are all "shock and slightly stronger". The core logic is that the recent geopolitical situation has escalated, with the US taking actions in the Middle East and the US - Iran military conflicts over the weekend. The international crude oil futures have significantly rebounded, and the domestic methanol futures maintained an upward trend on the night of last Friday, so it is expected that the methanol futures may maintain a shock - slightly - stronger trend on Monday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Methanol (MA) - **Price Trend Views**: Short - term view is slightly stronger, medium - term view is slightly stronger, intraday view is slightly stronger, and the reference view is shock and slightly stronger [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The US is taking actions in the Middle East, Trump is trying to ease the financial market tension. The US - Iran military conflicts over the weekend led to a significant rebound in international crude oil futures. Supported by the positive atmosphere, the domestic methanol futures maintained an upward trend on the night of last Friday, and it is expected to be shock and slightly stronger on Monday [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products on March 27, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC. All products are rated as "oscillating", and the geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the market [1][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices moved higher. WTI April contract closed up $4.16 to $94.48 per barrel, a 4.61% increase. Brent May contract closed up $5.79 to $108.01 per barrel, a 5.66% increase. SC2605 closed at 744.6 yuan per barrel, up 16.2 yuan per barrel, a 2.22% increase. Market sentiment towards the geopolitical situation is cautious. The supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a loss of 13 - 14 million barrels of oil per day, but the duration is uncertain [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.18% at 4,393 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 1.34% at 5,066 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of both low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets remain strong. The short - term crack spreads of high and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to remain high [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4.17% at 4,543 yuan per ton. The expected domestic asphalt production in April 2026 is 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 22.4% month - on - month and 33.3% year - on - year. The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6,778 yuan per ton, up 2.82%. EG2605 closed at 5,058 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 9,774 yuan per ton, up 2.86%. The short - term polyester price will fluctuate widely following the cost [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 30 yuan per ton to 16,460 yuan per ton. The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [5][6] - **Methanol**: The inventory has started to decline. The supply from Iranian plants may gradually recover, which may suppress the price increase, but the Iranian situation is unclear [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, compressing the downstream profit margin, and the subsequent demand growth may be hindered [6][7] - **PVC**: The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover, maintaining a de - stocking rhythm [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on March 26 and 25, 2026, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, etc. [8] Market News - Market sentiment towards the geopolitical situation is cautious. The negotiation process between the US and Iran is difficult. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, it may lead to a loss of 13 - 14 million barrels of oil per day. The export volume of Yanbu Port and Fujairah Port has rebounded recently [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report shows the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [30][32][34][36][39][40][41] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [44][46][49][52][53][56][58] - **Inter - variety Spread**: It provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, natural rubber - 20 - number rubber, etc. [60][62][64][68] - **Production Profit**: It shows the historical production profit and processing fee charts of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, ethylene - based ethylene glycol, etc. [70][72] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Research Director Du Bingqin, Analyst Di Yilin, and Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds, honors, and research areas [75][76][77][78]