业负荷仍有降低，但青海盐湖MTO装置计划重启，行业开工率存提升预期。MA2605合约短线预计在2250-2 甲醇产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2293 | 78 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 53 | 10 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 824536 | 50952 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -128251 | -21279 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8205 | 1557 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2250 | 40 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1847.5 | -10 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 362.5 | 5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -43 | -38 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 262 | 5 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 320 | 0 ...

本文源自：卓创资讯 上周内地甲醇市场整体窄幅松动。以内蒙古甲醇为例，截至12月31日，内蒙古甲醇均价1829.17元/吨， 环比下降2.76%。周内下游需求偏弱，部分产区企业让利出货。受运力下降以及北方降雪预期影响，运 费整体上行支撑部分销区心态，故销区跌幅整体小于产区跌幅。后市来看，本周市场或保持高开工，供 给量相对充足，部分企业或继续让利出货为主。下游虽然仍存刚需，但买气偏弱，故市场成交重心仍存 松动可能。（卓创资讯） ...

2025年12月29日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位上升，震荡偏弱 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续偏强运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2200元/吨，广 东价格波动在2090-2130元/吨。外轮卸货速度顺畅，加之内地价格走弱导致港口与内地市场价差扩大，港口 货源倒流内地的量减量，导致港口甲醇库存大幅累积，但在预期利好对市场情绪的支撑下，价格仍表现坚挺。 内地甲醇价格延续疲软，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1870-1900元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间 2160-2200元/吨。内地甲醇市场延续疲弱走势，企业出货不畅致库存高企，降价去库成为主流操作。下游采 购意愿受市场观望情绪压制，难有增量支撑；与此同时期货盘面表现不佳，港口货源回流进一步冲击内地市 场，供需双弱的格局之下，市场行情持续探底。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸装置恢复中，预计产能利用率有所走高，甲醇 制烯烃华东、西北个别企业延续降负荷状态，行业周均开工预期窄幅下降，甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲 醇 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12 月以来，甲醇期现货整体呈先抑后稳态势，月初2601合约开盘2134元/吨，短暂冲高至2164元/吨后回 落，但未跌破前低1988元/吨，与之相反，传统强势合约03、04、05合约则相对更加弱势，其中05合约 跌破前低2127元/吨，表现最为弱势，主要原因是伊朗装置停车消息基本消化，而内地供应充裕、下游 MTO需求偏弱，供需仍偏宽松，资金移仓换月压力下远月合约承压下行。中旬，随着港口连续去库、 海外检修装置进一步增多，进口预期减少，市场情绪回暖，价格回升，但做空力量仍未完全消退，多空 围绕库存与需求博弈加剧，上周五盘面再度下行。 现货市场则表现分化，港口地区随盘调整，需求疲软及海外供应收缩交织，价格震荡上行，下游采购偏 谨慎。内地价格则相对偏弱，区域内装置开工率高位，库存压力不大但出货意愿强，叠加冬季运费上 涨，企业让利出货，价格反弹乏力。12月19日，太仓进口价2142元/吨，环比前一周上涨50元/吨，广东 市场价2105元/吨，环比前一周上涨40元/吨，鲁南市场价2195元/吨，环比前一周上涨10元/吨，川渝主 流市场价2127.5元/ ...

蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸故障装置预计恢复正常运行，预计产能利用率 有所走高，甲醇制烯烃周均开工预期上升，甲醇下游整体需求预计回升。甲醇港口库存高位，近期进口量预 期上升。预计甲醇价格近期震荡运行，05合约上方压力2220一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲醇 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周环比变化率% | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差(江苏) | 元/吨 | 9.5 | 25.5 | -16.00 | -62.75 | 周度 | | 内地甲醇样本企业库存 | 万吨 | 39.11 | 36.21 | 2.90 | 8.01 | 周度 | | 港口甲醇库存 | 万吨 | 121.88 | 123.44 | -1.56 | -1.26 | 周度 | | 周产 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月15日 周报 甲醇：港口库存高位下降，震荡偏弱 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场区间震荡，其中江苏价格波动区间在2060-2120元/吨，广东价 格波动在2040-2100元/吨。外轮卸货速度不及预期，港口甲醇库存预期外下降，目前仍处高位，对市场压制 仍存，周期内港口甲醇市场呈低位区间震荡走势。后市需关注港口货源倒流量变动、外轮卸货速度、宏观等 因素的影响。内地甲醇价格弱势下滑，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1980-2007元/吨；下游东营接货 价格波动区间2200-2223元/吨。周内，港口低价货源持续流入并对内地市场形成显著冲击，叠加产区局部雨 雪天气扰动，物流运输成本持续抬升，国内甲醇企业为加速库存去化，积极采取降价策略吸引订单。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究报告 1. 期现货市场回顾 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸塞拉尼斯预计重启，其 ...

研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2067（-10/+0.48%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1940 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1920 元/吨，山西地区报价 2040 元/吨，河南地区报价 2110 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2190 元/吨，鲁北报价 2220 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2130 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2100 元/吨，宁波报价 2100 元/吨，广州报价 2070 元/吨。 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017786 联系方式： zhangmengchao_qh@ chinastock.com.cn 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 12 月 10 日 14：00 港口库存数据发布，周期内（20251204-20251210） 中国甲醇样本到港量为 24.78 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 260 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

期货研究报告 2025年12月01日 周报 甲醇：港口库存高位下降，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场止跌反弹，其中江苏价格波动区间在1990-2110元/吨。在外轮 卸货速度不及预期、港口货源倒流内地等因素影响下，港口甲醇库存大幅下降，加之国际装置变动对市场情 绪有所提振，周内港口甲醇市场价格止跌并偏强运行。内地甲醇价格上涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区 间在1985-1990元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2155-2175元/吨。周内，海外装置检修信号释放下，港口 价格走高且套利内地空间收窄，内地供需矛盾不大，企业出货良好，下游买涨心态浓厚。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸塞拉尼斯装置检修，预计产能利用率有所下滑， 青海盐湖烯烃装置重启后负荷提升，甲醇制烯烃周均开工预期上升，甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲醇整体 供过于求的局面难改，甲醇港口库存高位。预计甲醇价格近期震荡运行，01合 ...

1、期货市场：期货盘面偏强震荡，最终报收 2135（+18/+0.85%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1980 元/吨，北线报价 1970 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1910 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1960 元/吨，山西地区报价 2040 元/吨，河南地区报价 2100 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2170 元/吨，鲁北报价 2190 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2120 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 1990 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2100 元/吨，宁波报价 2090 元/吨，广州报价 2070 元/吨。 研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 【重要资讯】 本周(20251121-1127)中国甲醇产量为 2023515 吨，较上周增加 7530 吨，装置产能利 用率为 89.09%，环比涨 0.37%。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 260 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格反弹，进口顺挂持续扩大，伊朗全部正常，南美非伊提负，外盘 开工高位提升，欧美市场 ...