Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 30, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures price reached a new high and then declined, closing at 3319 (+77/+2.38%) [2] - Spot Market: Different regions have different spot prices, such as Inner Mongolia南线 at 2440 yuan/ton, 北线 at 2640 yuan/ton, etc. [2] Group 3: Important Information - International Methanol Production: In the current cycle (20260321 - 20260327), the international methanol (excluding China) production was 703,419 tons, a decrease of 14,480 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 48.22%, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply Side: The ex - factory price of methanol in the mainland has been rising following the sharp increase in futures prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded to around 1000 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant [4] - Demand Side: The operating rate of MTO devices is low. Some MTO devices are shut down or operating at low loads, while some have restart expectations [4] - International Situation: Iranian methanol plants are still in a state of full shutdown, and the daily output has dropped from 23,000 tons to around 1200 tons. The market is worried about a significant reduction in imports [4] - Inventory: As of March 18, 2026, the total port inventory was 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons from the previous period. The port inventory is expected to decrease by more than 30 tons [4] - Outlook: Due to the continuous conflict between the US and Iran, methanol is expected to continue its strong trend [4] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate with caution [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts show data on methanol port inventory, enterprise inventory, order backlog, and device operating rates from 2023 to 2026 [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts will determine the market fluctuation direction. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the local methanol price has strong resilience. Inland, cost transmission is smooth, downstream开工 enthusiasm has increased, especially the olefin's consumption of methanol has increased significantly, and the upstream methanol factories are continuously destocking. The supply - demand fundamentals support the bottom of inland methanol. However, geopolitical conflicts are the decisive factor for future market trends. If the Middle East war continues, methanol futures and spot prices will remain strong; if the war situation eases, there may be a phased correction, but the correction amplitude may be limited due to the tight supply - demand balance and increased olefin demand. In ports, imports are decreasing, exports to Southeast Asia are surging, the main olefin plants in ports are starting up, demand is rising rapidly, and port inventories are continuously decreasing. The port market is expected to continue to be strong next week. Attention should be paid to the resonance of the chemical sector and the progress of the US - Iran conflict [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - Geopolitical conflicts determine market trends. Inland and port methanol markets have different characteristics. Inland has cost - demand support, and ports have multiple favorable factors such as reduced imports and increased demand [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From March 20th to March 27th, prices in different regions changed. For example, in Jiangsu, the price increased from 3050 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, a 10.16% increase; in Hebei, it increased from 2440 yuan/ton to 2725 yuan/ton, an 11.68% increase [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - From March 20th to March 27th, the futures price increased from 3132 yuan/ton to 3296 yuan/ton, a 5.24% increase. The basis changed from - 82 yuan/ton to 146 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - based production profit increased from 455 yuan/ton to 531 yuan/ton; natural gas - based production profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton; coke oven gas - based production profit increased from 601 yuan/ton to 819 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the load decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, a 3.81% decrease; in the northwest, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a 3.55% decrease [12]. 3.2.5 Outer - market Methanol Price and Spread - CFR China increased from 382 US dollars/ton to 414 US dollars/ton, an 8.38% increase; CFR Southeast Asia increased from 556.5 US dollars/ton to 655 US dollars/ton, a 17.70% increase. The spread between them changed from - 174.5 US dollars/ton to - 241 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - The import cost increased from 3219 yuan/ton to 3492 yuan/ton, an 8.49% increase. The import spread changed from - 169 yuan/ton to - 132 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - Formaldehyde price remained at 1070 yuan/ton; dimethyl ether price remained at 3850 yuan/ton; acetic acid price increased from 3300 yuan/ton to 4000 yuan/ton, a 21.21% increase [24]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased from - 276 yuan/ton to - 403 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. - Dimethyl ether: The production profit decreased from 85 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. - Acetic acid: The production profit increased from 423 yuan/ton to 952 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32% [25][27][32]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit decreased from - 3760 yuan/ton to - 4752 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 86.45% to 84.18% [36]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 51.07 to 47.27; in the South China port, it decreased from 31.6 to 28.3 [37]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased from 7641 to 7835, a 2.54% increase; effective forecasts remained at 147, a 0.00% change [41]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. Different enterprises have different maintenance start and end times, and the weekly maintenance losses vary [43]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol devices in different countries have different operation statuses. For example, some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, and some Saudi and Malaysian devices are operating normally [44]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Different olefin enterprises in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some are in the process of starting up or restarting [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Given the new developments in the Middle East situation and the sharp drop in crude oil prices after the peace talk news, methanol is expected to continue to be strong after a short - term correction due to the time needed for supply to return to pre - war levels and the incomplete passage of the Strait of Hormuz. However, short - term risks are high, and it is necessary to closely monitor the US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [4] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of March 19, China's methanol production was 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a 2.65% increase from the previous week. There were new maintenance and production - reduction devices this period, and some devices resumed production. The overall recovery volume was more than the loss volume, resulting in an increase in production and capacity utilization [1] - China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons from the previous period, a 7.21% decrease; the sample enterprise order backlog was 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 5.26% increase [1] - Zhengshang Institute decided to add Anhui Province as a methanol futures delivery area and publicly solicit designated delivery warehouses for methanol futures. The premium and discount for the new delivery area is 150 yuan/ton, to be implemented from the date of the announcement of the new delivery warehouses [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In March, the traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by more than 90%. An Iranian vessel ordered an unauthorized ship to return, and the UK Royal Navy plans to lead a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [2] - A person from the securities department of China Merchants Energy Shipping revealed that the company has no ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, has no plans to pass through the risk area after the war, and is using other shipping routes. The current tanker freight rate has increased by more than 50% compared to before the war [2] - The US plans to cease fire for one month, and a plan to end the conflict with Iran was exposed [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Not provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be mainly affected by the geopolitical situation next week. Multiple positive factors will drive the methanol market to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, the restart of import facilities and the follow - up price increase of downstream products, and be vigilant against the callback risk after the sentiment fades [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Review - The port methanol market has risen significantly this period, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,790 to 3,180 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market has mainly risen, with the price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranging from 2,160 to 2,330 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying ranging from 2,505 to 2,555 yuan/ton. The downstream enthusiasm is not high this cycle, the arrival volume remains low, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The international situation panic and the expected contraction of supply have driven the price to rise strongly [3] Supply - The domestic methanol production this week has increased to 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons compared with last week; the device capacity utilization rate is 92.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. Inner Mongolia Baogang Qinghua has entered maintenance; Inner Mongolia Yigao has reduced production; Yanchang Zhongmei, Shenhua Xilaifeng, Inner Mongolia Junzheng, Yunnan Xianfeng and a set of devices in Hebei have resumed production. The inventory of inland methanol enterprises is 48.54 tons, and the port inventory continues to decrease, mainly due to the reduction of supply [4] Downstream Demand - The downstream demand has generally recovered, and the start - up performance of each product is differentiated. In terms of olefins, devices such as the second phase of Yulin Zhongmei have restarted, and the load of Tianjin Bohua has increased, so the industry start - up has risen. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether this week is 5.49%, and the start - up of Xinxiang Xinlianxin has driven the utilization rate to recover. The load of the glacial acetic acid device is stable, and the capacity utilization rate remains the same. The start - up rate of methane chloride this cycle is 82.52%. Affected by the reduction of the load of Jiangsu Fuqiang device to 70%, the overall start - up has slightly declined. The start - up rate of formaldehyde this week is 42.43%. Many enterprises have restarted and increased the load, the supply has increased, and the utilization rate has increased compared with last week. Overall, the start - up of most downstream fields has increased, and the demand has improved compared with last week [5] Market Outlook - The methanol market next week is expected to be mainly affected by the geopolitical situation. On the cost side, the raw material cost of coal - to - methanol has been alleviated, and the profit space of enterprises has been repaired. However, the high - level operation of international natural gas prices and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict have further pushed up the global methanol cost, indirectly providing support for domestic methanol prices. On the supply side, the tight pattern continues. There are few maintenance plans for domestic methanol devices, and the devices under maintenance are gradually resuming. The start - up rate is expected to increase slightly. However, the Middle - East conflict has led to a contraction of import supply, and the continuous reduction of port inventory has further intensified the supply shortage. On the demand side, the marginal demand continues to recover. The start - up of major downstream fields has increased, and the rigid demand support for methanol has been continuously strengthened, but the shrinking profit of downstream enterprises may suppress the demand to a certain extent [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the Middle East war situation, it is expected that short - term news factors will still dominate the operation of the domestic methanol market. If the Iran war ends in the short term, international oil prices will correct, and there is a possibility of a decline in inland methanol; if the war expands and escalates, international oil prices are expected to break through and rise, and inland methanol is expected to run strongly under the influence of sentiment. In the port area, the petrochemical industry has more obvious advantages under the supply - cut crisis, and the support for the rise of methanol comes more from inventory reduction, sentiment, and chemical resonance. It is expected that the methanol market will fluctuate at a high level this week, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly. MA2605 is expected to run in the range of 2720 - 2900 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are affected by the Middle East war situation. The procurement attitude of some traditional downstream users towards high - priced raw materials is cautious, and upstream methanol enterprises have a certain inventory. The port methanol is supported by factors such as inventory reduction, sentiment, and chemical resonance. The basis is 50, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of March 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports decreased by 113,700 tons, and the total available circulating sources in coastal areas decreased by 41,800 tons. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line. The main position is net long, and it has changed from short to long. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 running in the range of 2720 - 2900 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices have stopped or reduced their loads; the methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and the methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; the methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced their inventories, and the current inventory is not large, and some enterprises even limit sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde will gradually stop production and take holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in the port area have stopped, and the local demand has weakened significantly; most downstream users have completed their pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand has decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 689 yuan/ton (unchanged), CFR China Main Port is 381 US dollars/ton (up 60 US dollars/ton), the import cost is 3216 yuan/ton (up 492 yuan/ton), CFR Southeast Asia is 512 US dollars/ton (up 55 US dollars/ton), and the prices in different domestic regions have different changes. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2805 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton), the number of registered warrants is 11,513 (up 1180), and the number of effective forecasts is 147 (down 1180). The basis is 20 yuan/ton (down 69 yuan/ton), the import spread is 411 yuan/ton (up 413 yuan/ton), and there are also corresponding changes in other spreads [8]. - **Price Changes of Domestic Methanol**: From March 6th to March 13th, the prices of methanol in Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have increased, with increases of 11.66%, 5.41%, 7.87%, and 12.65% respectively, while the price in Shandong has remained unchanged [9]. - **Methanol Basis**: From March 6th to March 13th, the spot price increased by 11.66%, the futures price increased by 8.47%, and the basis changed from - 56 to 20 [11]. - **Production Profits of Different Methanol Processes**: From March 6th to March 13th, the profit of coal - based methanol increased by 203 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 512 yuan/ton [22]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [23]. - **External Methanol Prices and Spreads**: From March 6th to March 13th, CFR China increased by 23.30% to 381 US dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia increased by 27.72% to 511.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread between them changed from - 91.5 to - 130.5 US dollars/ton [26]. - **Methanol Import Spreads**: From March 6th to March 13th, the spot price increased by 11.66%, the import cost increased by 22.38%, and the import spread changed from - 97 to - 391 yuan/ton [29]. - **Prices of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products**: From March 6th to March 13th, the price of formaldehyde remained unchanged, the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged, and the price of acetic acid increased by 8.47% [32]. - **Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products**: The production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 53 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.01%; the production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.45%; the production profit of acetic acid increased by 88 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 1.29%; the production profit of MTO decreased by 944 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 2.27% [37][40][45][50]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: As of March 13th, the inventory in the East China port was 548,000 tons (down 72,000 tons), and the inventory in the South China port was 332,600 tons (down 41,700 tons) [8]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: From March 6th to March 13th, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 22.53% to 11,513, and the number of effective forecasts remained at 147 [56]. - **Methanol Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, demand, import, inventory, and supply - demand difference of methanol from November 2022 to October 2024 [58]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol enterprises in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdown due to faults or other reasons [59]. - **Overseas Methanol Device Operation**: Some methanol devices in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries and regions are in different states of operation, including normal operation, restarting, and maintenance [60]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: Olefin devices in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, and Northeast are in different states of operation, including normal operation, maintenance, and shutdown [61].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter average realized price was $331 per ton, with produced sales of approximately 2.4 million tons, generating Adjusted EBITDA of $186 million and an adjusted net loss of $11 million [6][12] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased compared to the third quarter of 2025 due to higher sales being offset by a lower average realized price and immediate fixed cost recognition related to plant outages [6][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Methanol production was higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, with 216,000 tons produced at Beaumont and 186,000 tons from Natgasoline [9] - In Geismar, production was slightly higher in the fourth quarter, while in Chile, both plants operated at full rates for most of the fourth quarter, despite a temporary gas supply restriction in December [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global demand for methanol increased by about 4% in China, while demand outside of China remained relatively flat [7] - Spot methanol pricing in Asia Pacific and Europe increased, with Chinese methanol prices trading above $300 per metric ton and European spot prices close to $400 per ton [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and ensuring financial flexibility, with a near-term capital allocation priority directed towards repaying the Term Loan A facility [12][13] - Integration plans for newly acquired assets are ongoing, with a target of realizing $30 million in synergies by the end of 2026 [46][47] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The current escalation in the Middle East brings significant uncertainty to the reliability of methanol supply from the region, impacting operations and trade flows [8] - Management is closely monitoring the situation and expects slightly higher Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter, based on forecasted pricing [12][13] Other Important Information - The company ended the year with a strong cash position of $425 million on the balance sheet and has repaid $50 million of the Term Loan A facility since the start of 2026 [12] - The expected equity production for 2026 is approximately 9 million tons of methanol, with actual production varying by quarter based on various factors [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about costs in Q4 and expectations for Q1? - Management noted that unabsorbed costs were recognized due to outages, but fixed costs are expected to decrease moving forward [16] Question: What do you think will happen in the market with current conditions? - Management emphasized the importance of supply reliability and noted that pricing has increased due to anticipated tightness in the market [19] Question: How opportunistic can the company be with price spikes? - The company primarily operates on term contracts but can adjust prices monthly based on market conditions [23] Question: Are you aware of any damage to methanol assets in the Middle East? - Management confirmed no damage to methanol facilities but noted that gas imports from Israel to Egypt have ceased [26] Question: Can you provide insights on production guidance for 2026? - Management provided a breakdown of expected production by region, with North America expected to produce over 6 million tons [30] Question: How is the integration of OCI assets progressing? - The integration is going well, with production rates exceeding initial expectations, although some costs are higher during the integration phase [46][48] Question: What is the company's approach to excess cash flow in the current environment? - The primary focus is on repaying the Term Loan A facility, with cash flow being directed towards strengthening the balance sheet [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the military strikes between the US, Israel and Iran, with the Iranian Supreme Leader and multiple officials killed and Iran launching a counter - attack, there is an obvious short - term macro drive. The overall methanol enterprise operation rate in Iran is currently around 30%, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, causing short - term import shipments to stagnate. It is expected that the imported methanol arriving in March will fall short of expectations, which will support the spot and futures prices of port methanol and also drive up the inland market. It is predicted that the domestic methanol market will rise in the short term, with a price increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton for inland resale during the weekend, but the market has prices but no transactions. Continuous attention should be paid to the dynamics of ports and plants in the Iranian region and the actual follow - up of downstream buyers [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has a significant impact on the methanol market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the low operation rate of Iranian methanol plants will lead to an expected shortfall in imports in March, supporting the rise in methanol prices in the domestic market [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends from February 13th to February 28th. For example, the price in Jiangsu increased by 0.09%, that in Hebei increased by 0.97%, while that in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From February 13th to February 28th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 0.09%, the futures price increased by 1.01%, and the basis changed from 17 yuan/ton on February 13th to - 3 yuan/ton on February 28th, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 8 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 323 yuan/ton from February 13th to February 28th [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From February 13th to February 28th, the CFR China price increased by 1.54%, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.31%, and the spread between them changed from - 62.5 dollars/ton to - 59.5 dollars/ton [16]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From February 13th to February 28th, the domestic methanol spot price increased by 0.09%, the import cost increased by 1.24%, and the import spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton [19]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from February 13th to February 28th [26]. 3.2.8 Methanol Traditional Downstream Production Profits and Loads - Formaldehyde production profit decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.01%; dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 28 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.45%; acetic acid production profit decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 1.29% [27][29][34]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - MTO production profit decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the load in East China increased by 2.16%, while that in South China increased by 1.10% [38][39]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - The inventory in East China ports increased by 2.16, and that in South China ports increased by 1.10 [39]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From February 13th to February 27th, the number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased by 10.16%, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged [43]. 3.3 Maintenance Status - Many domestic and foreign methanol plants are under maintenance or have production issues. For example, in the domestic market, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao and other plants are under maintenance; in the international market, some Iranian and other plants are in the process of restarting or have low - operation - rate situations [45][46]. 3.4 Views and Strategies - It is expected that the domestic methanol market will rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the military conflict on ports and plants in the Iranian region and the actual follow - up of downstream buyers [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekend military strike between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to significant short - term macro - driving factors. Iranian methanol enterprises are operating at around 30% capacity, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause short - term import shipments to stagnate. It is expected that March's import arrivals will fall short of expectations, which will support the spot and futures prices of methanol at ports and boost the inland market. The domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term, with inland transfer prices rising by 40 - 80 yuan/ton over the weekend, but there is a situation of high prices with few transactions. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2300 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has affected the methanol market. Iranian methanol enterprises are at low - capacity operation, and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, which will impact imports. The domestic methanol market is expected to rise in the short term, but there is a "price without market" situation. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 in the 2300 - 2430 yuan/ton range [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2355 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 10, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of February 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China was 97.53 tons, with a 3.26 - ton increase from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas increased by 9.36 tons to 55.43 tons [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average line, indicating a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic methanol plants are shut down or operating at reduced capacity; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; previous inventory at production areas has been actively reduced, and current inventory is low, with some enterprises even restricting sales; some downstream users are continuing pre - festival stockpiling [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic methanol production is operating at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are gradually shutting down for holidays, weakening demand for raw materials; the main olefin plants at ports are shut down, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream industries have completed pre - festival stockpiling, leading to a phased weakening of demand [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 685 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 263 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2258 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the futures is 2210 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants is 8979. The basis is - 3 yuan/ton, and the import price difference is 48 yuan/ton [8]. - **Domestic Methanol Spot Price**: The weekly change in the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 0.09%, in Shandong is 0.00%, in Hebei is 0.97%, in Inner Mongolia is - 0.41%, and in Fujian is - 0.23% [9]. - **Production Profit of Each Methanol Process**: The weekly change in the profit of coal - based methanol production is - 8 yuan/ton, that of natural - gas - based is 0 yuan/ton, and that of coke - oven - gas - based is 323 yuan/ton [22]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: The national methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week; the load in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [23]. - **External Methanol Price and Spread**: The weekly change in CFR China is 1.54%, and that in CFR Southeast Asia is 0.31%. The spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia is - 59.5 US dollars/ton [26]. - **Methanol Import Spread**: The weekly change in the spot price of methanol is 0.09%, the import cost is 1.24%, and the import spread is - 26 yuan/ton [30]. - **Price of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid are all unchanged, with a weekly change of 0.00% [33]. - **Production Profit and Load of Traditional Downstream Products**: The profit of formaldehyde production is - 113 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the load is 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01%. The profit of dimethyl ether production is 604 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the load is 9.79%, an increase of 1.45%. The profit of acetic acid production is 436 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the load is 72.32%, a decrease of 1.29%. The profit of MTO production is - 1062 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the load is 84.18%, a decrease of 2.27% [38][41][46][51]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports is 58.19 tons, a 2.16 - ton increase from the previous week; the inventory at South China ports is 39.34 tons, a 1.10 - ton increase from the previous week [53]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipt and Effective Forecast**: The number of warehouse receipts is 8979, a 10.16% decrease from the previous week; the number of effective forecasts is 0, with no change [59]. - **Methanol Balance Sheet**: From 2022 to 2024, data on methanol production, demand, net imports, inventory, and supply - demand differences in each month are provided [61]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end times and maintenance losses [62]. - **Foreign Methanol Plant Operation**: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating at low capacity, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally, but some are undergoing maintenance [63]. - **Olefin Plant Operation**: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, and Northeast regions are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have low - load operations [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,240 to 2,330 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,220 to 2,290 yuan/ton. Import demand was weak, port methanol inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and the market's tradable volume was high, putting pressure on the upside. However, due to the unstable international situation and positive macro - outlook, the market fluctuated strongly under the boost of sentiment. Inland methanol prices continued to decline, with the price in the Ordos northern line in the main production area ranging from 1,785 to 1,805 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranging from 2,100 to 2,130 yuan/ton. The production and sales areas in the inland were split. Before the festival, enterprises mainly focused on reducing prices to clear inventory. Coupled with high freight rates, manufacturers in the northwest产区 offered discounts, leading to a continuous decline in ex - factory prices. The consumer market remained relatively firm due to the increase in arrival costs [1]. - The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain at a high level. Seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East have taken effect. This week, the expected arrival at ports is expected to decrease, and the overall demand for methanol downstream is expected to pick up. Methanol supply is abundant, port inventory has increased at a high level and is expected to decline this week. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2,350 level [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Port methanol market: Last week, it fluctuated and consolidated. Jiangsu price range: 2,240 - 2,330 yuan/ton; Guangdong price range: 2,220 - 2,290 yuan/ton. Import demand was weak, inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and tradable volume was high. Market fluctuated strongly due to positive macro - outlook [1]. - Inland methanol market: Prices continued to decline. Ordos northern line price range: 1,785 - 1,805 yuan/ton; Dongying receiving price range: 2,100 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Enterprises focused on price - cut inventory clearance, freight was high, and ex - factory prices decreased. Consumer market was relatively firm due to higher arrival costs [1]. - Outlook: Overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor. Domestic start - up expected to remain high. Middle East gas restrictions in place, port arrivals expected to decrease this week, downstream demand expected to pick up. Supply is abundant, port inventory increased at high level and expected to decline. Price expected to fluctuate weakly, 05 contract upper pressure at 2,350 [1]. 2. Key Factors to Watch - Methanol start - up changes [2] - Methanol port inventory changes [2] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - **Periodic and Spot Market Review**: Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated, with the Jiangsu price ranging from 2,240 to 2,330 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply Situation Analysis**: As of January 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 91.21%, a 1.43% increase from the previous period. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 266.10 yuan/ton, a 1.00% increase from the previous period and a 598.43% decrease from the same period last year; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a 10.58% increase from the previous period and a 226.58% decrease from the same period last year; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 226.30 yuan/ton, a 10.71% decrease from the previous period and a 454.66% decrease from the same period last year; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 61.00 yuan/ton, a 16.00% decrease from the previous period and an 85.78% decrease from the same period last year; the weekly average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, a 9.02% decrease from the previous period and a significant decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Demand Situation Analysis**: As of January 29, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 30.48%, a decrease of 13.90 percentage points from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude plant restarted, and the Sierbang plant was shut down for maintenance. The overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased as the southwest plant resumed operation, while Ineos and Xinjiang plants remained shut down [10]. - **Inventory Analysis**: As of January 28, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 147.21 tons, a 1.46 - ton increase from the previous period and a 54.24 - ton increase (58.34% year - on - year) compared with the same period last year [12]. - **Position Analysis**: As of January 30, the long positions of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market were 613,144, an increase of 371, and the short positions were 739,936, an increase of 44,528. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market shows a strong performance, with the main contract trading at 2242.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.22% increase [1] Supply - Domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, while international methanol operating rates have dropped to low levels, leading to reduced import pressure and decreased supply pressure [2] Demand - The MTO facility of Zhejiang Xingxing has entered a shutdown phase, and some enterprises are operating at reduced capacity. The domestic methanol-to-olefins (MTO) industry continues to see a decline in operating rates, with no significant changes expected in the near term [2] Inventory - As of January 15, coastal methanol inventories stand at 1.432 million tons, which is a decrease of 30,500 tons (2.09%) from January 8, but represents a year-on-year increase of 41.5% [2] Market Outlook - The methanol market's supply-demand fundamentals are expected to improve marginally with reduced arrivals, but weak downstream profits limit the potential for significant price increases. The market is anticipated to exhibit a range-bound, slightly strong operational trend, with a focus on the actual implementation of MTO facility restart plans [2]