交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （2.24 大越期货投资咨询部 -2.27 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：周末美以对伊朗发动军事打击，伊朗最高领袖及多名官员遇害，伊朗展开反击，短期宏观驱 动明显。据悉伊朗地区甲醇企业目前整体开工在三成左右，当前霍尔木兹海峡已关闭，短期进口装船将停 滞，预计3月份进口到货不及预期（具体还需持续关注该地装置动态及装船情况），将支撑港口甲醇期现货 走势，且对内地市场走势推涨，预计短期国内甲醇市场上涨，周末期间内地转单涨幅在40-80元/吨，有价无 市。需持续关注战事影响下，伊朗地区港口和装置方面动态，以及下游买盘实际跟进情况。 国内甲醇现货价格 | | | | | | 国内甲醇价格 | （元/ ...

1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-03甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 近期多空分析 利多： 1.部分装置停车或者降负荷：内蒙古黑猫，山西中信等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工低位，预计2月份甲醇进口继续收缩。 3.前期产区甲醇工厂积极排库，当前库存不多，部分企业甚至限量销售。 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：周末美以对伊朗发动军事打击，伊朗最高领袖及多名官员遇害，伊朗展开反击，短期宏观驱动明显。据悉 伊朗地区甲醇企业目前整体开工在三成左右，当前霍尔木兹海峡已关闭，短期进口装船将停滞，预计3月份进口到货不 及预期（具体还需持续关注该地装置动态及装船情况），将支撑港口甲醇期现货走势，且对内地市场走势推涨，预计短 期国内甲醇市 ...

蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场震荡整理运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2240-2330元/吨，广 东价格波动在2220-2290元/吨。进口表需偏弱，港口甲醇库存高位窄幅累积，市场可流通量高位，上方存压 制。但由于国际形势不稳，宏观面向好，在情绪的提振下，市场震荡偏强运行。内地甲醇价格持续下行，主 产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1785-1805元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2100-2130元/吨。内地产销 两地劈叉运行，节前企业仍以降价排库为主基调，叠加运费高居不下，西北产区纷纷让利导致出厂持续走低。 而消费市场因到货成本抬升则延续相对坚挺趋势， 2026年2月2日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位，震荡偏弱 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，本周港口到货预期 下降，甲醇下游整体需求预计有所回升。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升，本周预期下降。预计甲醇价格 近期震荡偏弱，05合约上方压力2350一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲 ...

1月22日，国内期市能化板块几乎全线飘红。其中，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报 2242.00元/吨，震荡上行1.22%。 展望后市，东海期货表示，甲醇市场供需基本面有望随着到港减少而边际转好，但受制于疲弱的下游利 润，价格缺乏大幅上涨的扎实基础。预计市场将主要呈现区间震荡、略偏强的运行态势，后续需重点关 注MTO装置重启计划的实际兑现情况。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）指出，浙江兴兴MTO装置进入停车状态，仍有部分企业降负荷运行 中，上周国内甲醇制烯烃行业开工继续走低，本周MTO装置稳定运行，暂无明显变动计划，周均开工 率预计下降。 库存方面，据申银万国期货介绍，截至1月15日，沿海地区甲醇库存在143.2万吨(目前沿海甲醇库存处 于历史中高位置)，相比1月8日下降3.05万吨，跌幅为2.09%，同比上涨41.5%。 供应方面，华联期货分析称，国内甲醇开工率与产量高位维持，国际甲醇开工率降至低位，进口压力下 降，供应压力减少。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent turmoil in Iran has raised investor concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices to the highest level since early December 2025 [1] - Methanol futures prices have shown a gradual rebound since January 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and escalating situations in the Middle East [1] - Domestic methanol port inventories remain high, with the 2605 contract still operating under a "weak reality, strong expectations" framework [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - As of December 2025, China's methanol production reached 101.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [2] - The operating rate of coal-based methanol plants was 103.6%, up 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, while natural gas-based methanol plants saw a decrease to 48.4%, down 2.5 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Methanol imports in November 2025 were 1.4176 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [2] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - As of January 8, 2026, domestic methanol port inventories rose to 1.5372 million tons, with expectations of maintaining high levels in January, which may exert pressure on near-term contract prices [3] - The inventory levels of inland methanol enterprises were around 447,700 tons, with slight price adjustments observed from manufacturers [3] - The market anticipates a significant decrease in methanol shipments from Iran in January, which could impact supply dynamics [3] Group 4: Downstream Demand - Domestic methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities are expected to gradually restart by late January, although traditional downstream demand remains weak [4] - The operating rate for olefins was 89.28%, reflecting a month-on-month increase, while other downstream products showed varied performance in their operating rates [4] - The coal market remains stable, with normal production levels in major coal-producing regions, although demand is slightly increasing due to colder temperatures [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - High port inventories continue to suppress market sentiment for methanol, but global geopolitical disturbances warrant close monitoring of the situation in Iran [5] - Despite expectations for the restart of some MTO facilities, caution is advised regarding the economic viability of these facilities if prices rise [5] - The methanol market is expected to remain in a "weak reality, strong expectations" state, with high inventory levels limiting upward price movement and a likelihood of wide fluctuations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of methanol has increased due to the fact that the production capacity loss from recent domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the production capacity output from recovery. With an increase in market supply, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, leading to a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm. Inland projects continue to operate stably, and last week, inland enterprises' inventories increased, with short - term supply being relatively abundant. Against this backdrop, the weakening demand expectations in winter are not conducive to the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventory is expected to maintain an overall increasing trend. [2] - Last week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained good, inventories increased due to more unloading. In Zhejiang, demand was stable, and inventories also increased. There is an expected decrease in imports in January, and port methanol inventories may decline from their high levels. [2] - Last week, most enterprises' devices were operating stably. Due to some devices in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased slightly. In the short term, the load of MTO enterprises in East China may still decrease, but the MTO device of Qinghai Salt Lake is planned to restart, so there is an expectation of an increase in the industry's operating rate. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2293 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 78; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 53 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. [2] - The trading volume of the main methanol contract is 824,536 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 50,952; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for methanol is - 128,251 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 21,279. [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,205, with a week - on - week increase of 1,557. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1847.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10. [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 362.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 43 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 38. [2] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 262 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, with no change. [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 255 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0471 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 39,800 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 430,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25,100 tons. [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 10.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.4176 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.19; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.49. [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.71; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no change. [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.8; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1256 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 141. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.44%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31st, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 4.61%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.48%. [2] - As of December 31st, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. Methanol port inventories continued to accumulate this week. [2] - As of December 31st, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.66%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%. Most enterprises' plants were operating stably, but due to some plants in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the weekly average industry operating rate decreased slightly. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall methanol market in mainland China experienced slight fluctuations last week, with a focus on the Inner Mongolia region where the average price decreased by 2.76% to 1829.17 RMB/ton as of December 31 [1] Market Dynamics - Downstream demand remains weak, leading some producers to offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] - The decline in transportation capacity and anticipated snowfall in northern regions have resulted in increased freight costs, which support the sentiment in some sales areas, causing the drop in sales areas to be less than that in production areas [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high operating rates this week, with a relatively sufficient supply [1] - Some companies may continue to prioritize discount sales, while downstream demand still shows some essential needs, although buying interest remains weak, indicating potential for further market price adjustments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a pattern where port prices are relatively strong while inland prices are weak The supply of methanol is abundant, and port inventories are rising from a high level It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the near - term, with the 05 contract facing resistance at the 2215 level [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Section Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the port methanol market continued to be strong, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2090 - 2130 yuan/ton Inland methanol prices were weak, with prices in Ordos, the main production area, ranging from 1870 - 1900 yuan/ton and downstream Dongying's receiving price from 2160 - 2200 yuan/ton [1] - The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor The domestic methanol operating rate is expected to remain high, and seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East are gradually taking effect The on - the - way cargo volume from Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain at a high level The downstream demand for methanol is expected to be relatively stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The basis in Jiangsu decreased by 268% week - on - week, inland methanol sample enterprise inventories increased by 3.3%, port methanol inventories increased by 15.89%, weekly production increased by 0.79%, coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 18.70%, coking - oven - gas - to - methanol profit in North China decreased by 13.02%, natural - gas - to - methanol profit in Southwest China remained unchanged, downstream acetic acid operating rate increased by 1.41%, and downstream olefin production operating rate decreased by 0.35% [3] Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market continued to be strong, with Jiangsu prices fluctuating between 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton [6] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 91.24%, a 0.8% week - on - week increase The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia decreased by 18.70%, the average weekly profit of coking - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei decreased by 13.02%, and the average weekly profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China remained unchanged [7] Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 25, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 69.13%, a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease from last week The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid increased due to some plants' restarts and load adjustments [9] Inventory Analysis - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 141.25 tons, a 19.37 - ton week - on - week increase and a 47.40% year - on - year increase [11] Position Analysis - As of December 26, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in methanol futures decreased by 21,011 to 649,496, and the short - position volume decreased by 20,164 to 796,088 The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [14]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing a mixed trend with high domestic supply and weak demand, influenced by overseas supply disruptions, particularly from Iran, which is expected to impact future pricing dynamics [4][22][47] Supply Side - Domestic methanol supply remains high, with a cumulative production of 92.8 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [8][33] - The production capacity utilization rate for domestic methanol plants was 90.52% as of December 19, up 0.81 percentage points week-on-week and 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [8][33] - The overseas methanol production capacity utilization rate was 60.51%, down 3.47 percentage points week-on-week, with a production of 882,700 tons, reflecting a decrease in supply due to operational disruptions in Iran [10][35] Demand Side - The market is entering a consumption off-season, with downstream purchasing being cautious, particularly in the MTO sector where production utilization is at 89.51% [13][38] - The demand for methanol in traditional downstream applications like formaldehyde and acetic acid remains weak, with limited growth in consumption [15][40] Inventory - Port inventory levels remain high, with a total social inventory of 1.61 million tons as of December 19, an increase of 22,800 tons week-on-week [17][42] - The port inventory specifically was 1.2188 million tons, down 15,600 tons week-on-week, but still up 148,500 tons year-on-year [17][42] Cost Side - Coal prices have been declining, which has reduced losses for coal-based methanol production facilities, with a drop of 41 yuan per ton for 5500 kcal thermal coal last week [20][45] - The overall coal market remains weak, with limited demand growth expected due to regulatory pressures and seasonal factors [20][45] Summary - The methanol market is at a critical juncture, with high supply and weak demand limiting immediate price increases, while expectations of reduced imports from Iran provide some support for future pricing [22][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market was weak, with prices in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price was between 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol enterprises' overall profits are poor. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. With the seasonal gas restriction in the Middle East, the on - the - way cargo volume in Iran is still abundant, and imports in December are likely to remain at a high level [1]. - This week, the faulty downstream glacial acetic acid units are expected to resume normal operation, with an expected increase in capacity utilization. The weekly average start - up of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise, and the overall downstream demand for methanol is expected to pick up [1]. - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the import volume is expected to increase in the near future. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2220 level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Port methanol market strengthened last week due to slow port unloading, inventory reduction, and some holders' low - price selling reluctance. Inland market was weak because of seasonal freight increase and high downstream raw material inventory [1]. - In the future, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate, with the 05 contract facing upper pressure at 2220 [1]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - Methanol start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The basis (Jiangsu) decreased by 62.75% week - on - week to 9.5 yuan/ton. The inland methanol sample enterprise inventory increased by 8.01% to 39.11 tons. The port methanol inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.88 tons. The weekly output increased by 0.79% to 205.59 tons [3]. - The profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol increased by 14.1% to - 135.8 yuan/ton. The profit of North China coke - oven gas - to - methanol decreased by 10.58% to 169 yuan/ton. The profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320 yuan/ton [3]. - The downstream acetic acid start - up rate increased by 3.55% to 76.51%, while the downstream methanol - to - olefins start - up rate decreased by 1.34% to 88.99% [3]. 3.4 Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the port methanol market was range - bound, with prices in Jiangsu fluctuating from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton [7]. 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 90.52%, a 0.81% increase from the previous period [8]. - The weekly average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol (based on full cost) was - 135.80 yuan/ton, a 14.10% increase from the previous period. Based on cash - flow cost, the profit increased by 9.22% [8]. - The weekly average profit of Hebei coke - oven gas - to - methanol was 169.00 yuan/ton, a 10.58% decrease from the previous week. The weekly average profit of Southwest natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 320.00 yuan/ton [8]. 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70.10%, a 7.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. Most plants maintained their previous loads this week [10]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream glacial acetic acid increased, although there were still frequent faults. Some plants had short - term outages, while some were not operating at full capacity [10]. 3.7 Inventory Analysis - As of December 17, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a 1.56 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 13.8% increase compared to the same period last year [12]. 3.8 Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in methanol futures was 799,442, a decrease of 22,337. The short - position volume was 935,039, a decrease of 8,706. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [15].