| | | | | 投资询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【了C国贸期货 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 甲醇数据日报 | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/11/24 | | | | | 数据来源:钢联 | | | | | | 플 | | 内蒙古北线 陕西关中 太仓 | | | 广东 山东临沂 | | 河南 | | 现点 | 现值 | 2000 | 1985 | 1905 | I ਰੇਰੇ ਦੇ | 2135 | 2020 | | 货区 | 前值 | 2000 | 1978 | 1905 | 2000 | 2145 | 2000 | | 域 | 涨幅 | 0 | 7 | 0 | (5) | (10) | 20 | | 期 号 | | MA2601 MA2605 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 2004 | 2138 | | | | | | 货 纪 | 前值 | 20 ...

11月20日，据数据，华东港口甲醇库存为78.76万吨，较11月13日的80.33万吨环比减少1.57万吨。 机构观点 11月24日，甲醇期货盘面强势拉升，截至发稿主力合约报2079.00元/吨，涨幅达3.18%。 【消息面汇总】 截至11月21日，内蒙古甲醇均价1960元/吨，环比下跌1.58%。 截止11月20日，国内甲醇整体装置开工负荷为76.25%，环比下降0.29个百分点，较去年同期提升1.54个 百分点。 一德期货：国内开工略降，久泰、凯越推迟重启，预计后期开工将回升，海外开工不变，伊朗装置全线 运行，预计11月底开始陆续限气停车，本周到港有所下降，下游综合开工上升，宁波富德计划12月初停 车，传统下游开工涨跌互现，本周沿海及内地均去库；受卸货缓慢及贸易倒流等因素影响，本周沿海甲 醇去库，但整体库存水平仍偏高，一方面，国内开工高位，进口到货仍多，烯烃预期检修，市场供需压 力依然较大，但另一方面，伊朗11月底开始陆续限气，进口成本跌后小幅反弹，市场看空心态有所缓 和，短期看甲醇或转入低位震荡运行，后期仍需关注限气节奏、去库持续性及成本变动情况。 光大期货：供应端，近期国内检修装置运行稳定，供应恢复至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical products sector, particularly methanol, has been the weakest performer in the domestic commodity market over the past two months, with methanol futures contracts experiencing a continuous decline and reaching a new low since July 2023 [1] Group 1: Supply and Inventory - High inventory pressure is the main reason for the continuous decline in methanol prices, with port inventories reaching multi-year highs [2] - As of November 13, China's methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, with port inventory totaling 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous week [2] - The supply pressure is expected to increase as domestic methanol production facilities resume operations and import shipments arrive, particularly in the East China region [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Demand from traditional downstream sectors is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, leading to reduced procurement of raw materials [2] - The profitability of the polyolefin sector remains under pressure, which may further lower operational rates and reduce demand for methanol [2] - Despite no significant drop in pre-sale orders from methanol companies, year-on-year demand remains weak, especially with cautious purchasing from inland regions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that the weak methanol market is likely to continue due to high inventory levels and insufficient demand [3] - The ability for methanol prices to rebound will depend on inventory changes and production facility adjustments [3] - In the short term, the methanol market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with a focus on monitoring port inventory changes and the operational status of MTO enterprises [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall methanol market today is mainly influenced by absolute factors. Spot prices have declined, with abundant available resources at ports but few buyers and a dull trading atmosphere. The inland market is mixed, with prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line rising slightly due to some plant shutdowns and external procurement by olefin plants, and prices in Shandong rising slightly due to the premium成交 of auctions in Henan. Markets in North and Central China are mainly fluctuating and consolidating, while prices in the Southwest are continuously decreasing as manufacturers try to stimulate demand by lowering prices. The current market supply and demand are in a stalemate, with traditional downstream industries having poor profitability and purchasing on demand, and external procurement by olefins providing some support. It is expected that the national methanol market will operate in a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Regional Prices and Changes**: In the spot market, the current prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Xinjiang (outside the region), Shandong Linyi, Taicang, and Henan are 2060, 1620, 2008, 1940, 2180, and 2065 respectively. The previous values were 2060, 1550, 2003, 1935, 2165, and 2040 respectively. The price increases are 0, 70, 5, 5, 15, and 25 respectively [1] - **Taicang Transaction Prices**: On the morning of November 11th, the spot transaction price range in Taicang was 2050 - 2060 (01 - 40), the mid - November price range was 2070 - 2075 (01 - 30), and the late - November price was 2080 (01 - 15) [3] Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts MA2601 and MA2605, the current values are 2082 and 2194 respectively, the previous values were 2101 and 2208 respectively, and the price increases are - 0.90% and - 0.63% respectively [1] Company Device Status - **Yizhou Technology Co., Ltd.**: Its 30 (15 + 15) million - ton/year coke - oven gas - to - methanol plant has been operating with a single unit since November 8th for 15 days [3] - **Jiangsu Sopo**: Its 86 (56 + 30) million - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant stopped on October 10th for an expected 30 days and resumed normal operation on November 10th [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the methanol market maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Although the port inventory reached a new high and the structure weakened, the decline was small due to market expectations of supply - demand improvement in the peak season. After the National Day, the port inventory further increased, and combined with the decline of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, the market broke through the support level and declined. Currently, the real - world port situation remains weak, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply is under pressure with high domestic production and increasing imports, while the demand has weakened. However, the cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and the subsequent fundamentals may improve marginally, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: In September, the domestic methanol production was 809 million tons, a month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase. With the return of previously shut - down devices, the domestic operating rate has returned to a high level. The traditional demand in the peak season in September improved slightly, but the overall profit is poor, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The cost - end support is not obvious, the basis is stable at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread has reached a new low. The methanol valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 1.54 million tons, a year - on - year high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively healthy at 339,000 tons, a year - on - year low [11]. - **Market Logic**: The energy - chemical sector declined weakly, and the supply - demand situation of methanol itself remained weak, with the inland market weaker than the port market, leading to the market's downward breakthrough [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: In September, the prices of some methanol contracts and spot markets changed. For example, the 09 contract increased by 125 yuan/ton, the 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Among the domestic spot markets, the prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang increased, while those in Hebei and Shanxi decreased [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market showed an increase in open interest and a decline in price [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and动力煤 (thermal coal) fluctuated [33][35][37]. - **Production Profit**: The coal - to - methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia and other places showed a downward trend from a high level, and the MTO profit also decreased [11]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory is at a historical high, while the factory inventory is at a year - on - year low [44][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: New methanol production capacities are being put into operation, with a total of 7.45 million tons of new capacity from several enterprises in the northwest region expected to be gradually put into production from 2025 [55]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly production have returned to high levels, and the overseas methanol operating rate also shows certain trends [57][58][60]. - **Imports**: The import volume and arrival volume have increased, and the import volume from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia shows different trends [64][67][69]. - **Price Spreads**: There are various price spreads, including international price spreads and domestic regional price spreads, which reflect the market's supply - demand relationship and cost differences [76][79]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: The consumption and end - of - period inventory of methanol show certain trends over time [86]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate and the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reached high levels, but the profit of MTO has declined. The production profits of different PP production processes also show different trends [88][90][97]. - **Downstream Products**: The operating rates and profits of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and MTBE show different trends [109][112][114]. 3.6 Option - related - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: The option trading volume and open interest of methanol show certain characteristics, and the PCR of option open interest and trading volume also has corresponding values [121]. - **Option Volatility**: The historical volatility and implied volatility of methanol options show certain trends [123]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - **Industrial Chain Diagram**: The methanol industrial chain and research framework analysis mind - map are presented, showing the overall structure and analysis framework of the methanol industry [126][128].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a downward - prone trend due to weak supply - demand fundamentals, with high supply pressure from device resumption and increasing external imports, as well as sluggish downstream demand [2][9] Summary by Related Aspects Supply - Since the third quarter of this year, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been abundant. Iranian device restarted with increased operating rate, and India's shift to non - Iranian sources led to more Iranian shipments to China. Excess methanol from Europe also flowed to China, pushing up imports. It's estimated that China's methanol imports in August might be 1.4 - 1.5 million tons and could remain at 1.4 - 1.45 million tons in September [2][4] - Since September, some domestic methanol devices have been under maintenance, causing a decline in weekly operating rate and output. As of September 19, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, down 1.81% week - on - week, 1.26% month - on - month, and 1.53% year - on - year. The weekly output was 1.8132 million tons, down 0.1061 million tons week - on - week, 0.0842 million tons month - on - month, and 0.0302 million tons year - on - year. September output is expected to drop to 7.8 million tons, but supply pressure will increase again after the National Day as devices resume production [3] Demand - Although the domestic methanol market has entered the traditional peak consumption season, the recovery of olefin demand has fallen short of expectations. As of September 19, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin devices was 82.88%, up 3.58% month - on - month, and the futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month [5][7] - The traditional downstream demand for methanol was also under - performing. As of September 19, the formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, up 1.06 percentage points week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, down 0.11 percentage points week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, down 3.84 percentage points week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, up 1.85 percentage points week - on - week [7] Inventory - As of September 19, the methanol inventory in ports of East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, up 0.0625 million tons week - on - week, 0.3956 million tons month - on - month, and 0.4872 million tons year - on - year. The high import volume and weak downstream demand led to a continuous increase in coastal port methanol inventory [4] Market Performance - Since this week, the main contract MA2601 of domestic methanol futures has continued a weak and volatile trend, with the price center steadily moving down to the range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic methanol futures market is returning to a weak fundamental-driven trend due to high supply pressure and weak demand, with prices expected to remain under pressure [1] - Domestic methanol production has decreased due to maintenance of several methanol plants, with an average operating rate of 79.39% and a weekly production average of 181.32 million tons, reflecting a significant drop [2] - The import volume of methanol is at a near two-year high, with expectations of continued high imports into the fourth quarter, contributing to increased port inventories [3] Group 2 - Despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, the recovery in olefin demand is below expectations, with the average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants at 82.88% [5] - The downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with various downstream products showing low operating rates, such as formaldehyde at 31.54% and dimethyl ether at 6.68% [5] - Overall, the domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a trend of being difficult to rise due to the combination of high supply and weak demand [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Weak Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - Next week is the last procurement week before the National Day, but due to poor profitability in downstream industries, the resistance to high - priced raw materials has increased. The demand side has limited ability to boost the methanol market. Additionally, high inventory in port areas will likely lead to low - level price oscillations, which will negatively impact the inland market. Without sudden macro - positive factors, the methanol market is expected to operate weakly next week. However, the low inventory of inland factories will limit the price decline to some extent [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Domestic supply has contracted this week due to production capacity losses from device overhauls and production cuts exceeding the output supplemented by restored production capacity. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased, mainly dragged down by declines in East and North China, with only a slight increase in the Northwest [2] - Import volume has also contracted, with about 350,000 tons imported this week. The expected arrival next week is 340,000 tons, a 3% decrease from the previous week [2] Demand - Overall domestic demand shows a differentiated pattern. National Day stocking is restricted by reality, with traditional downstream industries having low profitability and limited stocking. Although the MTO load has increased, some industries like formaldehyde are in continuous losses [2] - The olefin sector is performing steadily, with the operating rate slightly rising. Some olefin plants in the Northwest are continuously inquiring about external purchases, but the restart of some plants may reduce external purchases next week [2] - Traditional downstream industries are also differentiated. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether and methane chloride have changed, while the operating rates of formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid have decreased [2] Inventory - The inventory removal pace inland has slowed down, and port inventory has shown narrow fluctuations. There is still short - term inventory removal momentum [2] - Port inventory is 1.5578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons (a year - on - year increase of 56.06%). It is expected to continue to accumulate next week due to weakened spot buying and restocking demand [2] - Inland enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, maintaining an inventory removal trend but at a slower pace. It is expected to continue to decline next week [2] Profit - The price of thermal coal in Inner Mongolia has risen, increasing the production cost pressure of methanol. The theoretical profit of coal - based methanol has slightly shrunk [2] - Profits vary by process and downstream industry. Coal - based methanol profits have declined, while profits from coke oven gas - based and gas - based methanol have slightly recovered. Profits of some downstream industries have changed, with glacial acetic acid and MTBE improving, while methane chloride and dimethyl ether have worsened [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - Iran's National Gas Company has implemented a 10 - day gas restriction on petrochemical parks since September 19, affecting three 3.3 - million - ton methanol plants [2] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, a long - short spread strategy of MA1 - 5 is recommended [2]

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, methanol futures trended weakly due to high port inventories and expected high import supplies. The methanol spot market performed well driven by the favorable inland market and positive macro - expectations. In the short term, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Before the substantial destocking of methanol ports driven by improved supply - demand, the methanol futures price may fluctuate within a range, and a short strangle strategy can be considered [6][8][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures trended weakly. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,367 yuan/ton, down 1.41% from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol inventories hit a record high, but prices were slightly stronger due to macro - benefits and news. In the inland market, downstream buying sentiment was positive due to increased olefin external procurement and low enterprise inventories [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,919,265 tons, a decrease of 43,550 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a 2.37% week - on - week decline. More devices were under maintenance than restarted [13][15] - **Downstream Demand**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products showed different trends. For example, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 64.69%, up 0.31 percentage points from the previous week [18] - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 10, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.31% week - on - week decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 250,700 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons from the previous period, a 3.91% week - on - week increase [22] - **Port Inventory**: As of September 10, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, an 8.59% week - on - week increase. Ports continued to accumulate inventory [24] - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples improved. The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol increased, and the losses of natural - gas - based methanol narrowed [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to restart than be under maintenance. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.9449 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.71%, an increase from last week [31] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rates of downstream products are expected to change. For example, the olefin industry's operating rate is expected to rise, while the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to decrease slightly, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [32][34] - **Overall Trend**: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macro - level has no positive news, and the supply - demand contradiction is becoming prominent. It is expected that the domestic methanol price may face downward pressure this week. The inland methanol price is expected to decline in the short - term due to increased supply and reduced demand, while the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but the subsequent reverse flow of port goods to the inland may increase. Overall, in the short - term, the driving force is still downward, and it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2340 - 2410 [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For MA2601, the macro - level is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. The inland supply has increased significantly, while demand has decreased. The port is expected to accumulate inventory, but there are factors such as potential reverse flow to the inland and rising Indian prices. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. As of August 28, 2025, the port inventory has increased significantly, the 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main position is net long, but the long position has decreased. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2340 - 2410 [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 113, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. The futures closing price is 2378 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous value. The import cost is 2298 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous value [5][8]. - **Price Changes**: The weekly change in the domestic methanol spot price in Jiangsu is 0.90%, in Shandong is 0.00%, in Hebei is - 1.32%, in Inner Mongolia is 0.37%, and in Fujian is 0.00%. The weekly change in the futures price is 0.72%, and the weekly change in the basis is 3 [9][11]. - **Operating Rates**: The weighted average operating rate across the country is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest are 80.65%, 68.71%, 44.06%, and 81.54% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 106.60 tons, a significant increase of 13.18 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas has increased by 8.44 tons to 69.13 tons [5]. - **Traditional Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week, with a weekly change of 0.00% [31]. - **Production Profits and Loads of Downstream Products**: The production profits of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have changed to different degrees, and their loads have also changed. For example, the formaldehyde production profit has increased by 13 yuan/ton, and the load has increased by 0.90% [35][38][42][47]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: The warehouse receipts have increased by 2.98% to 10036, and the effective forecasts have increased by 176.50% to 5483 [54]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including those in the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are under maintenance [57]. - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries have different operating conditions, such as some plants in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some plants in the US have normal operations [58]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have normal operations. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under synchronous maintenance, while some plants in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions are operating stably [59].