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甲醇日报:MTO检修,江苏港口库存延续上升-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:07
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - Methanol overseas operating rates remain high, with significant subsequent arrival pressure. Xingxing MTO's maintenance for one month and MTO's route change due to maintenance have pushed up Jiangsu port inventories, keeping the port market weak. Inland coal - based methanol operating rates are still low but will gradually recover in early August. Traditional downstream demand shows some resilience, with inland factory inventories decreasing again, resulting in a stronger inland market compared to the port [2]. - The overall situation is an inland - strong and port - weak pattern [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and basis between different regions' spot and main futures [6][8][10]. - It also shows inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05 futures contracts, 05 and 09 futures contracts, and 09 and 01 futures contracts [21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][29][30]. 3. Methanol Operating Rates and Inventories - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences such as between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, and other regional combinations [37][47][49]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][57]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3].