Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - Methanol overseas operating rates remain high, with significant subsequent arrival pressure. Xingxing MTO's maintenance for one month and MTO's route change due to maintenance have pushed up Jiangsu port inventories, keeping the port market weak. Inland coal - based methanol operating rates are still low but will gradually recover in early August. Traditional downstream demand shows some resilience, with inland factory inventories decreasing again, resulting in a stronger inland market compared to the port [2]. - The overall situation is an inland - strong and port - weak pattern [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and basis between different regions' spot and main futures [6][8][10]. - It also shows inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05 futures contracts, 05 and 09 futures contracts, and 09 and 01 futures contracts [21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][29][30]. 3. Methanol Operating Rates and Inventories - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences such as between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, and other regional combinations [37][47][49]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][57]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of methanol plants in operation for over 20 years, with the proportion of obsolete methanol plant capacity in China at 5%. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [3]. - The strong performance of coking coal has driven up the methanol futures price in the coal - related sector, and the rebound in thermal coal prices has also increased the cost of methanol production [3]. - The decline in port inventories this week exceeded expectations due to slow unloading rates. However, high overseas operating rates mean significant future arrival pressure, and some MTO plant maintenance plans have not been fulfilled. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of production cuts in late July [3]. - In the inland region, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, resulting in short - term low operating rates, which will gradually recover by the end of the month. Traditional downstream industries show some resilience, and inland demand remains strong, with inland plant inventories decreasing again. The inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][31][36] III. Methanol Operation & Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol plants (including integrated plants) [37][38][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [42][48][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][60][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main driver of the methanol market lies in the fluctuations of crude oil prices at the upstream cost end. After the US struck Iran, the oil price declined, indicating that the market believes the most intense expectations have been fulfilled, and there is limited room for further intensification. The market has started to trade on the expectation of Iran's plant resumption, leading to a high - opening and low - closing trend in the methanol futures market. Future attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's plant resumption. [3] - Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still low, and the port basis remains strong. There are concerns in the market about the loss - induced maintenance of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) plants that rely on imported methanol at ports. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will materialize. [3] - In the inland region, the operating rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, and the inventory accumulation rate of inland factories is still slow, indicating a certain resilience in inland demand. However, the high price difference between ports and inland areas is a factor dragging down the methanol price from reaching a peak. [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads are presented, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China. [26][31][32] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol plants in China (including integrated plants). [34][35][37] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures present various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions. [39][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. [45][55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Iranian methanol plant shutdowns will affect future Chinese arrivals. Port inventories decreased slightly this week, and the absolute inventory level is seasonally low. After the port basis strengthened rapidly, it declined slightly. The market is worried about the loss and maintenance of port MTO plants that purchase methanol externally. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will be realized. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol operation rate remains high, but the inland plant inventory also decreased this week, and the inland demand resilience exceeded expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (e.g., methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads (e.g., spreads between methanol 01, 05, and 09 futures contracts) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][30][31] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operation rate (including integrated) are presented [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. are shown [38][46][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [44][53] 4. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously go long for hedging [4]. 5. Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 710 yuan/ton (+8). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2005 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 62 yuan/ton (-19); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2030 yuan/ton (+30). Shandong Linyi is 2388 yuan/ton (+33), with a basis of 45 yuan/ton (+7); Henan is 2280 yuan/ton (+35), with a basis of - 63 yuan/ton (+9); Hebei is 2195 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 88 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 367,350 tons (-11,770), and the Northwest factory inventory is 237,000 tons (-100). The inland factory pending orders are 274,780 tons (-27,310), and the Northwest factory pending orders are 149,500 tons (-17,500) [1] Port - Taicang methanol is 2765 yuan/ton (+65), with a basis of 222 yuan/ton (+39), CFR China is 304 US dollars/ton (+6), and the East China import spread is 29 yuan/ton (+32). Changzhou methanol is 2545 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2640 yuan/ton (+70), with a basis of 97 yuan/ton (+44) [2] - Longzhong's total port inventory is 586,400 tons (-65,800), Jiangsu port inventory is 293,500 tons (-18,500), Zhejiang port inventory is 143,500 tons (-12,500), and Guangdong port inventory is 99,500 tons (-24,500). The downstream MTO operation rate is 88.54% (-0.02%) [2] Regional Spreads - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is 210 yuan/ton (+58), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is 128 yuan/ton (+33); Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 478 yuan/ton (-33); Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 305 yuan/ton (+5); East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is 225 yuan/ton (+65) [2]