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【英文】国际能源署IEA:电力年中更新2025
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 08:05
Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects strong global electricity demand growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, driven by industrial demand, air conditioning, data centers, and electrification, despite a slowdown in global economic growth [19][36] - Renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, are expected to dominate the increase in electricity supply, covering over 90% of new demand, with renewable generation surpassing coal-fired generation as early as 2025 [2][25] - Regional electricity prices are experiencing significant variations, with wholesale prices in the EU and US rising by 30-40% due to higher gas prices, while prices in India and Australia are declining by 5-15% [3][31] Demand - Global electricity demand is forecasted to grow at an average annual rate of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, which is a moderation from the 4.4% surge in 2024 but still among the highest rates in the past decade [36] - China and India are expected to contribute 60% of global electricity demand growth, with China's demand projected to increase by 5% in 2025 and India's by 4% [20][49] - The United States is experiencing above-trend electricity demand growth, projected at 2.3% in 2025, driven by data center expansion and electrification [21][51] Supply - Renewable energy sources are set to cover over 90% of the increase in global electricity demand, with wind and solar generation expected to surpass 5,000 TWh in 2025 and 6,000 TWh in 2026 [24][25] - Global coal-fired generation is forecasted to decline slightly in 2025 and further in 2026, while gas-fired generation is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2025 [26][28] - Nuclear power generation is on track to reach a record high in 2025, driven by plant restarts and new reactor commissioning [29] Emissions - Global carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are expected to plateau in 2025, with a slight decline forecasted for 2026 as low-emission sources displace fossil fuels [30] - The rapid deployment of renewables is limiting increases in fossil fuel power generation, contributing to a decrease in carbon emissions intensity [30] Prices - Wholesale electricity prices in the EU and US rose by 30-40% in the first half of 2025, while prices in India and Australia decreased by 5-15% [31][33] - The occurrence of negative electricity prices is increasing, highlighting the need for greater flexibility in supply and demand [32] Security and Infrastructure - Recent blackouts in regions like Chile and Spain underscore the importance of electricity security, necessitating robust grid infrastructure and diverse flexibility resources [34]