电动汽车市场增长放缓

Search documents
碳酸锂日评:国内碳酸锂7月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加-20250717
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:56
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core View - Domestic lithium carbonate supply in July is expected to be loose, with the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate increasing month - on - month. Due to the clearing of lithium carbonate products from extraction projects and automobile consumption rules, there is upward potential for lithium carbonate prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in light - volume contracts and pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Price and Volume**: On July 16, 2025, the closing price of the active lithium carbonate futures contract was 66,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 478,114 lots, a decrease of 285,914 lots, and the open interest was 340,618 lots, a decrease of 1,528 lots. The inventory was 10,655 tons, a decrease of 548 tons [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was 180 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was 580 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the spread between the second - consecutive and the third - consecutive contract was 0 yuan, unchanged. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - active lithium carbonate futures contract closing price) was - 1,470 yuan, an increase of 290 yuan [1]. Lithium Spot Prices - Various lithium - related products' prices showed different trends. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 64,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 63,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1]. Supply - side Information - Some lithium carbonate production enterprises in Jiangxi Shanggao and Yichun started maintenance from July 10 for 5 - 10 days, which may affect the production volume by 0.00 tons. The production capacity of Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 1,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate is expected to be put into production in July 2025, and Zijin Mining's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The production volume of industrial and battery - grade lithium carbonate in China may increase month - on - month, but the supply is expected to be loose [4]. - The production volume of lithium hydroxide in China (smelting and causticizing methods) in July may decrease month - on - month, and the inventory may increase month - on - month. The export volume may also decrease month - on - month [4]. Demand - side Information - The monthly average in - production cost of phosphoric acid iron in China with different production processes is 10,600 - 12,900 yuan/ton, and the inventory in July may increase month - on - month. The monthly average in - production cost of lithium iron phosphate is 29,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton [5]. Company News - Panasonic Holdings decided to postpone the full - scale operation of its new US electric vehicle battery factory in Kansas due to Tesla's sales slump [2]. - Savoye announced that the drilling at the 2014 Canadian Quebec Mobilele project ended, with 116 new drill holes showing high - grade lithium mineralization, which is expected to increase resource reserves [2]. - Hubei Wanrun's planned project in Wuhan will automatically terminate after expiration [2]. - Australia's Cabic Company (CC9) successfully raised 100,000 Australian dollars through private placement for asset acquisition [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali project and Tianqi Lithium's project have achieved production increases [4].