Workflow
电商多平台高增
icon
Search documents
百亚股份(003006):2025H1点评:线下外围拓展超预期,持续看好成长逻辑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-17 13:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 1.764 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 188 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 182 million in H1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 5%, and 6% respectively. In Q2 2025, the figures were 768 million, 57 million, and 53 million, showing a year-on-year change of +0.2%, -25%, and -28% respectively. The strong growth in peripheral provinces indicates robust growth potential, while e-commerce and core five provinces faced short-term disruptions. The decline in profitability in Q2 was mainly due to business structure and public sentiment impacts. Looking ahead, the company's fundamentals are expected to improve in H2, maintaining competitiveness in the offline market and benefiting from favorable trends for quality brands across all channels [2][6][12]. Revenue Analysis - In Q2, the core five provinces experienced a year-on-year decline of 2%, primarily due to base effects, while peripheral provinces saw a significant increase of 123%. E-commerce faced a decline of 24% due to short-term public sentiment issues and a weaker overall market during the 618 shopping festival. The product structure continues to improve, with the health product series gaining a larger share [12][12]. Profitability Analysis - The decline in Q2 profitability was mainly due to business structure and public sentiment impacts, with the net profit margin decreasing by 2.6 percentage points. The core five provinces, which contribute significantly to profits, saw a slight revenue decline, leading to an 18 percentage point drop in revenue contribution to 57%. The gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points, influenced by increased costs related to e-commerce warehousing. However, the comparable gross margin is expected to improve with ongoing product structure optimization [12][12]. Market Trends - Recent events, such as changes in brand ownership and issues faced by some e-commerce brands, indicate that the sanitary products market favors quality brands. Companies with strong supply chains and multi-channel strategies are expected to benefit [12]. Future Outlook - The fundamentals are expected to improve in H2, with continued competitiveness in the offline market. E-commerce performance is anticipated to recover, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall, with new product launches planned. The core five provinces are expected to return to normal growth rates, and the profitability in peripheral markets is projected to recover. The company remains optimistic about its growth potential and profitability elasticity, with expected net profits of 360 million and 500 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 35 and 25 times [12][12].