Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's mid-year performance is under pressure, with H1 2025 revenue at 1.764 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.12%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 188 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.64% [7] - The company is accelerating its offline national expansion, and e-commerce is expected to recover in the second half of the year, supported by an aggressive management team, indicating strong long-term growth potential [7] - E-commerce revenue faced short-term pressure, but internal operational strategy adjustments are expected to lead to recovery in the second half of 2025 [7] - Offline performance is strong, with steady growth in core provinces and accelerated national expansion, particularly in peripheral markets [7] - The product structure is continuously optimized and upgraded, focusing on health-related series, which is driving sales growth [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 3.990 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.6% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected at 365 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.9% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 0.85 yuan [6] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 53.2% [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase to 20.7% in 2025 [6] Performance Comparison - The company's stock price closed at 29.68 yuan, with a market capitalization of 12.72 billion yuan [2] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35 for 2025, which is expected to decrease to 20 by 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 1.764 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 188 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 182 million in H1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 5%, and 6% respectively. In Q2 2025, the figures were 768 million, 57 million, and 53 million, showing a year-on-year change of +0.2%, -25%, and -28% respectively. The strong growth in peripheral provinces indicates robust growth potential, while e-commerce and core five provinces faced short-term disruptions. The decline in profitability in Q2 was mainly due to business structure and public sentiment impacts. Looking ahead, the company's fundamentals are expected to improve in H2, maintaining competitiveness in the offline market and benefiting from favorable trends for quality brands across all channels [2][6][12]. Revenue Analysis - In Q2, the core five provinces experienced a year-on-year decline of 2%, primarily due to base effects, while peripheral provinces saw a significant increase of 123%. E-commerce faced a decline of 24% due to short-term public sentiment issues and a weaker overall market during the 618 shopping festival. The product structure continues to improve, with the health product series gaining a larger share [12][12]. Profitability Analysis - The decline in Q2 profitability was mainly due to business structure and public sentiment impacts, with the net profit margin decreasing by 2.6 percentage points. The core five provinces, which contribute significantly to profits, saw a slight revenue decline, leading to an 18 percentage point drop in revenue contribution to 57%. The gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points, influenced by increased costs related to e-commerce warehousing. However, the comparable gross margin is expected to improve with ongoing product structure optimization [12][12]. Market Trends - Recent events, such as changes in brand ownership and issues faced by some e-commerce brands, indicate that the sanitary products market favors quality brands. Companies with strong supply chains and multi-channel strategies are expected to benefit [12]. Future Outlook - The fundamentals are expected to improve in H2, with continued competitiveness in the offline market. E-commerce performance is anticipated to recover, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall, with new product launches planned. The core five provinces are expected to return to normal growth rates, and the profitability in peripheral markets is projected to recover. The company remains optimistic about its growth potential and profitability elasticity, with expected net profits of 360 million and 500 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 35 and 25 times [12][12].

Summary of Baia Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baia Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Sanitary products, specifically focusing on women's hygiene products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recovery in Revenue and Profit**: The most competitive period for online channels has passed, with expectations for revenue and profit to recover, primarily benefiting from L2 strategy optimization and policy restrictions on irrational traffic investments. The months of May and June are seen as clear low points, with July and August showing recovery in GMV on Douyin [2][5] 2. **Dominance of Offline Channels**: Offline channels remain the primary driver for Baia, with the Free Point brand expanding rapidly in peripheral provinces. The first half of the year is expected to see a doubling in growth, and as fixed costs are amortized, profit increases will be non-linear, with key provinces likely to reach profitability inflection points [2][6] 3. **Emergence of Instant Retail**: Baia has positioned itself early in the instant retail space, offering competitive pricing and higher delivery efficiency compared to Douyin. The recovery in e-commerce data combined with strong performance in offline peripheral provinces should be closely monitored for future growth [2][6] 4. **Shift in Growth Strategy**: The company is transitioning from rapid market share growth to enhancing operational quality, leveraging online L2 strategy optimization and new instant retail channels to drive performance growth. The growth cycle of the company is expected to continue [2][7] 5. **Product Strategy and Impact**: In May 2023, Baia launched a probiotic series priced at 1 to 1.2 yuan, which significantly boosted performance and initiated a cycle of large single products. This followed the introduction of a health series in late 2022, which had mixed results due to higher pricing [2][7] 6. **Financial Performance**: Since the second half of 2022, Baia has seen a turning point in performance, with revenue growth of 33% in 2023 and projected 52% in 2024. Despite increased advertising and fixed costs, profit growth remains above 20%. ROE is expected to rise from 15% in 2022 to 20% in 2024, with gross margin increasing from 45% to 53% [4][8] 7. **Regional Market Performance**: Baia holds over 40% market share in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, with stable growth in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Shaanxi. Significant revenue growth is expected in peripheral provinces starting in the second half of 2024, continuing into the first half of 2025 [4][9] 8. **E-commerce and Offline Channel Dynamics**: E-commerce channels have achieved significant results through Douyin and Tmall, but future growth may stabilize at a reasonable range of 20%-30%. The importance of offline channels is increasing, with fixed costs being amortized as scale expands, gradually releasing profit potential [10] 9. **Competitive Advantages**: Baia's local brands, such as Free Point, have stronger offline management capabilities compared to foreign brands, which rely heavily on online channels. The company maintains a close ratio of distributors to sales personnel, enhancing control over terminal sales points and market share [11] 10. **Future Growth Prospects**: As the potential of probiotic products is realized, high-margin products will enhance distributor performance, attracting more distributors. After crossing the breakeven point in various provinces, profit margins are expected to rise rapidly, with projections for continued revenue and profit growth [12]

Group 1 - The stock price of Baiya Co., Ltd. closed at 26.97 yuan on July 29, 2025, down 1.21% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume for the day was 74,800 lots, with a transaction amount of 203 million yuan, and the price fluctuation was 5.20% [1] - Baiya Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the research, development, production, and sales of personal hygiene care products, including sanitary napkins and diapers [1] Group 2 - The company owns well-known brands such as "Free Point" and has a business presence across multiple regions in the country [1] - Recently, the company indicated on its investor interaction platform that it has a small amount of export business and will focus on leveraging its advantages to deepen its core market [1] - The company emphasized that consumer health and safety are its top priorities, and product quality strictly adheres to national standards [1] Group 3 - On July 29, Baiya Co., Ltd. experienced a net outflow of main funds amounting to 3.8974 million yuan, accounting for 0.03% of its circulating market value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of consumer health and safety, ensuring product quality adheres to national standards while focusing on brand building and channel expansion to serve more users with reliable products [1] Group 1 - The company prioritizes consumer health and safety [1] - Product quality is strictly in accordance with national standards [1] - Future plans include strengthening brand construction and expanding distribution channels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Huayuan Securities on Baiya Co., Ltd. highlights the company's strong position in the domestic disposable hygiene products market, particularly in sanitary napkins, and assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock [1][4]. Company Overview - Baiya Co., Ltd. was established in 2010 and specializes in the research, production, and sales of disposable personal hygiene products, including sanitary napkins, baby diapers, and adult incontinence products. The company owns well-known brands such as "Free Point," "Good," and "Danning." It primarily sells through distributors, key accounts, and e-commerce channels, focusing on a multi-brand strategy to cater to consumers of all ages [2][3]. Competitive Advantages - **Channel Strategy**: The company is expanding its market presence through a focused marketing strategy in key regions, particularly in the Sichuan-Chongqing area, while also enhancing its e-commerce and emerging channel capabilities. It has a strong market share in key provinces, ranking first in Chongqing, Sichuan, and Yunnan, and second in Guizhou and Shaanxi [3]. - **Brand Development**: Baiya is concentrating on health-oriented product lines, continuously upgrading its offerings to enhance brand strength. The introduction of the Pro series of probiotics is aimed at younger consumers and professionals, which has received positive market feedback [3]. - **Research and Development**: The company is increasing its R&D investments to maintain its industry-leading position. It focuses on high-end products and has expanded its product matrix to include various innovative offerings, which has contributed to the growth of its sanitary napkin sales [3]. Financial Projections - Baiya's revenue is projected to reach 4.48 billion, 5.50 billion, and 6.57 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.5%, 23.0%, and 19.3%. The net profit is expected to be 380 million, 500 million, and 610 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 33.8%, 28.9%, and 23.0% [4]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 33, 25, and 21 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Comparatively, similar companies in the personal care sector have a PE ratio of 63 for 2025 [4]. Market Position - Baiya Co., Ltd. is recognized as a leading domestic brand in the sanitary napkin market, with a significant market share and a strong competitive edge in key provinces. The company's focus on e-commerce and health-oriented products is expected to drive future growth [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 3.8 billion, 5 billion, and 6.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 27, 20, and 16 times respectively [4] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.254 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.8%, with a net profit of 288 million yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its market share in e-commerce and peripheral provinces, with significant revenue growth in these areas [2] - The increase in the proportion of health-related products has positively impacted the average selling price and gross profit margins [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.254 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 51.8% compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 288 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.7% [1][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 929 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.1%, but the net profit decreased by 12% to 49 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region in 2024: Sichuan-Chongqing (760 million yuan, +11.5%), Yunnan-Guizhou-Shaanxi (430 million yuan, +18.9%), peripheral areas (430 million yuan, +82.1%), and e-commerce channels (1.52 billion yuan, +104%) [2] - Product revenue in 2024: sanitary napkins (3.047 billion yuan, +59.9%), diapers (94 million yuan, -20.5%), and ODM business (114 million yuan, -6.1%) [2] Profitability and Costs - The overall average selling price increased by 3.8% in 2024, with gross margins of 53.2% and 55.8% for overall and free point brands respectively [3] - The sales expense ratio was 37.7%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased marketing and brand promotion efforts [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has rapidly responded to public relations challenges and is focused on enhancing its brand image and market presence [3] - The report expresses confidence in the company's growth trajectory as a leading regional brand, supported by product optimization and channel expansion [4]