Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International (6969.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report suggests a positive outlook based on market developments and company performance [1]. Core Viewpoints - The marketing promotion of HILO in Japan is expected to accelerate, while the compliance market in the US is showing signs of recovery [1]. - The competitive landscape in Japan is intensifying, with major players like Philip Morris and British American Tobacco reducing prices, which may enhance HILO's market share [2]. - The US market is anticipated to improve further, with an increase in the compliance product listing rate expected from Q3 2025, benefiting Smoore's core supply chain [2]. - In Europe, Smoore's ODM revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 38% in the first half of 2025, indicating a successful transition from disposable products to compliant alternatives [3]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) product line is set to launch in Japan and expand into Europe, with expectations for revenue growth in subsequent quarters [3]. - Profit forecasts indicate a continuous improvement in operational performance, with net profits projected to reach 1.23 billion, 2.02 billion, and 3.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Market Developments - The US FDA and CBP have conducted significant enforcement actions against unauthorized e-cigarette products, indicating a tightening regulatory environment that may benefit compliant products [1]. - The introduction of new regulations in various US states is expected to enhance the market for compliant products, with a notable increase in the market share of compliant flavors [2]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 19.3 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18% [6]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a decline in 2024 to a significant increase by 2027, reflecting a turnaround in profitability [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.21 yuan in 2024 to 0.49 yuan in 2027, indicating improved shareholder value [6]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on product innovation and compliance, with a shift from disposable products to more sustainable and compliant offerings, which is expected to drive growth in various markets [3]. - The operational cash flow is projected to improve significantly, reflecting better management of working capital and operational efficiency [9].