雾化电子烟

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思摩尔国际(06969):系列深度(二):万里征途,骐骥为锋
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-05 10:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - Smoore International is the largest electronic vaporizer supplier globally, with growth potential unlocked by its technology positioning in HNB (Heated Not Burn) products [3][6] - The company's core business is recovering, benefiting from regulatory shifts in the industry and increasing market share among major clients [3][6] - The HNB business is expected to see significant growth, with a projected annual growth rate in the double digits and a current global penetration rate of less than 6% [3][7] Summary by Sections Introduction - Smoore International leverages its R&D advantages to launch HNB products, marking a new phase in the industry [6][17] - The company has transitioned from a pure equipment supplier to a tobacco business model, opening new growth avenues [6][17] Core Business - The HNB segment is poised for accelerated development, with a low penetration rate and high barriers to entry, indicating substantial growth potential [7][28] - The collaboration with British American Tobacco to launch Glo Hilo combines both companies' strengths, enhancing market competitiveness [7][28] Performance Outlook - The revenue-sharing model for Glo Hilo is expected to yield significant profits, with projections estimating annual profits for Smoore's HNB business to reach 6-7 billion RMB if market penetration increases [8][9] - The U.S. market presents a significant opportunity, with potential market size increases if HNB penetration rises to 15% [8][37] Traditional Business - The U.S. vaping market is expected to grow from $19.81 billion in 2021 to $27.03 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 11% [9][20] - Regulatory changes in the U.S. are becoming more favorable, allowing for a recovery in the vaporizer business [9][20] Long-term Strategic Direction - The company is diversifying into medical and beauty vaporization, aiming for long-term growth across multiple sectors [10][19]
思摩尔国际20250807
2025-08-07 15:03
Summary of Smoore International Conference Call Company Overview - Smoore International primarily engages in the manufacturing of vaping products, serving major tobacco companies and domestic brands. The global market for vaping products is approximately $20 billion, with Smoore holding a significant position in this sector, including key clients like British American Tobacco [3][4]. Industry Challenges - Since 2021, Smoore has faced significant challenges, including: - The ban on fruit-flavored e-cigarettes in China since Q3 2022, leading to a drastic revenue decline from nearly 5 billion RMB [2][4]. - The illegal e-cigarette market in the U.S. capturing over 75% of market share, stalling growth for compliant products [4]. - The rise of disposable e-cigarettes in Europe, negatively impacting overall profit margins, with disposable e-cigarettes having a gross margin below 20% compared to over 50% for traditional products [5][7]. Current Development Logic - Smoore's current strategy focuses on: - Stabilizing its traditional vaping business by deepening ties with core clients and maintaining technological leadership [6]. - Actively expanding into the heated not burned (HNB) product category as a second growth avenue [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. market's compliance process is influenced by the regulation of illegal products. If fruit-flavored products are allowed, the compliant market demand could significantly expand [2][7]. - In Europe, the transition from disposable to refillable and open-system products is expected to enhance profitability, especially following bans on disposable e-cigarettes in the UK and France [10]. Key Factors for Market Expansion - The expansion of the compliant market hinges on the potential lifting of the fruit-flavored e-cigarette ban. Signals indicate that the FDA may relax restrictions, which could greatly boost demand [8][9]. HNB Market Potential - The global HNB market is valued at $38 billion, with rapid growth observed. North America has low penetration, but significant potential exists, especially with upcoming product launches from Philip Morris [11][12]. - Smoore's technological advantages in HNB products position it well for competition, with expectations of achieving a market share of around 30% in the mid-term [12]. Future Outlook - Smoore aims for a market capitalization target of 300 billion to 500 billion, driven primarily by HNB business growth and potential policy changes in the U.S. regarding vaping products [15]. - The company is also exploring new business avenues such as medical vaping, which holds considerable long-term potential [13][14]. Conclusion - Smoore International is navigating a challenging landscape with strategic focus areas in traditional vaping and HNB products. The company's future growth will depend on regulatory changes, market dynamics, and successful product launches.
国泰海通:上半年HNB整体表现平稳 新型口含烟美国市场高歌猛进
智通财经网· 2025-08-06 06:41
Group 1 - The overall performance of HNB remains stable, benefiting from the launch of GloHilo, with Glo's market share in Sendai increasing by 1.5 percentage points [1][2] - In H1 2025, British American Tobacco's (BAT) new oral tobacco segment generated revenue of £470 million, a year-on-year increase of 38%, with sales of 5 billion pouches, up 42%, and a remarkable 206% growth in the U.S. market [1][3] - The U.S. new oral tobacco market exceeds £2 billion, expected to double in size over the next two years [3] Group 2 - The vaping market faced pressure in H1 2025, with BAT's vaping segment revenue declining by 15% year-on-year to £737 million, primarily due to illegal products in the U.S. and Canada, as well as market dynamics in Europe [1] - The launch of GloHilo has led to a 1.5 percentage point increase in market share in Sendai, with a successful entry into the high-end market [2] - BAT's heated tobacco segment generated £444 million in revenue in H1 2025, a slight increase of 1%, with sales of 10.1 billion sticks, up 2%, although declines in certain European markets offset growth [2] Group 3 - The U.S. market for new oral tobacco products is experiencing rapid growth, with the Velo brand capturing a market share of 17% by July 2025, following its launch in May [3] - The global HNB industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively cultivating the market, indicating potential for accelerated industry expansion [4] - Recommendations are made for investing in companies with competitive product technology and supply chains, specifically British American Tobacco and Smoore International [4]
英美烟草、菲莫国际发布2025半年报:减害产品与口含烟成为核心增长引擎
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 14:03
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that reduced-harm products and oral tobacco have become the core growth engines for British American Tobacco (BAT) and Philip Morris International (PMI) [1][3] - BAT's revenue for the first half of 2025 was £12.069 billion, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, but a 1.8% increase when excluding currency effects, primarily driven by recovery in the US market [1] - PMI reported a revenue of $19.4 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3] Summary by Sections British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT's operating profit for the first half of 2025 was £5.069 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with an operating margin rising by 7.5 percentage points to 42.0% [1] - The diluted EPS for BAT was £2.036, up 1.6% year-on-year [1] - The number of consumers of BAT's reduced-harm products reached 30.5 million, an increase of 1.4 million year-on-year [2] - Modern oral products generated £470 million in revenue, a 38.1% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 42.2% [2] Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's gross profit for the first half of 2025 was $13.1 billion, a 12.0% increase year-on-year [3] - The adjusted diluted EPS for PMI was $3.6, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [3] - PMI's total shipment volume for the first half of 2025 was 387.9 billion units, a 2.5% increase year-on-year [4] - Reduced-harm product shipments reached 87.9 billion units, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, with 41.5 million consumers globally, an increase of 5 million [4] Regional Performance - In Japan, IQOS covered over 10 million legal-age consumers, with a shipment volume of 13.9 billion units in Q2 2025, a 3.2% increase year-on-year [6] - In the EU, IQOS shipments reached 6 billion units in Q2 2025, a 13.21% increase year-on-year [6] - In South Korea, IQOS shipments were 1.6 billion units in Q2 2025, a 12.8% increase year-on-year [6] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the vaping supply chain, including companies like Smoore International and Yihua Healthcare, as well as the tobacco supply chain with companies like China Tobacco Hong Kong and China Boton [7]
PMI对HNB全年销量预期不变,把握新型烟草产业链布局机遇
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-28 14:11
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" based on the expectation of an increase exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [6] Core Insights - The new tobacco industry continues to show strong growth trends, with PMI reporting a revenue increase of 7.1% and adjusted operating profit growth of 16.1% in Q2 2025 [1] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) market is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the U.S., as the FDA's approval of JUUL products indicates a clear trend towards market expansion [2][3] - The overall HNB global market is on a continuous growth trajectory, with the U.S. market poised to contribute significantly to this growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, PMI achieved revenues of $10.1 billion and adjusted operating profits of $4.3 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7.1% and 16.1% respectively [1] - New tobacco revenue in Q2 2025 reached $4.2 billion, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with HNB sales volume also increasing by 9.2% to 38.8 billion sticks [1] Regulatory Environment - The FDA has approved JUUL's products for sale in the U.S., increasing the total number of approved vaping products from 34 to 39, indicating a more favorable regulatory environment for compliant products [2] - The FDA's focus on combating illegal products while facilitating the approval of compliant products suggests a dual approach to market regulation [3] Market Outlook - The HNB market in Europe is recovering from flavor bans, with PMI reporting double-digit growth in Q2 2025, indicating resilience in consumer demand [3] - The legal market for HNB products is expected to expand significantly, driven by regulatory changes and increasing consumer acceptance [4]
天风证券晨会集萃-20250721
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-21 00:14
Group 1 - The report highlights that the actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 in China exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, compared to the forecast of 5.17% and the previous value of 5.4% [1] - The report suggests a focus on three main investment directions: technology AI+ led by Deepseek breakthroughs and open-source initiatives, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends [1] - The report indicates that the U.S. core CPI growth in June was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to the previous value of 2.8% and the forecast of 3.0% [1] Group 2 - The report outlines that the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) has received support through 15 reform measures aimed at creating a comprehensive policy loop covering the entire lifecycle of fundraising, investment, lending, insurance, and exit [2] - It notes that mergers and acquisitions on the STAR Market are highly concentrated among private enterprises, with 202 private companies forming the core of M&A activities, reflecting the board's focus on hard technology and nurturing innovative entities [2] - The report anticipates further breakthroughs in the "14th Five-Year Plan" regarding refined stratification mechanisms, diversified listing standards, optimized investor structures, and enhanced international collaboration [2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the banking sector's fundamentals are stabilizing, with a significant narrowing of net interest margin decline expected in 2025, projected at 1.34% for state-owned banks and 1.55% for joint-stock banks [10] - It emphasizes that the valuation recovery driven by the funding environment is a core logic supporting the current market trend, with continuous inflow of incremental funds boosting bank sector valuations [10] - The report recommends focusing on quality regional small and medium-sized banks, particularly Chengdu Bank and China Agricultural Bank, as well as China Bank and Postal Savings Bank among state-owned banks [10] Group 4 - The report discusses the strong growth potential of Hengxin Life, a leading company in biodegradable food service products, with a projected net profit of 2.58 billion to 3.74 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE ratio of 34 to 24 [18] - It highlights the company's extensive customer base, including major brands like Starbucks and McDonald's, which enhances its market presence and brand image [18] - The report notes that the company's production capacity has reached 9 billion units of paper and plastic food service products, with a new factory in Thailand optimizing its global layout [18] Group 5 - The report indicates that the education sector, particularly Xueda Education, is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 39% to 66% [20][22] - It emphasizes the recovery of the company's store opening pace, with the number of learning centers increasing from over 240 to over 300, indicating a positive market demand for personalized education [22] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 2.61 billion, 3.30 billion, and 4.08 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 19, and 15 [22]
轻工周报:Juul获批验证美国合规雾化扩容趋势,轻工消费重视龙头回调机遇-20250720
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-20 09:27
Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a focus on companies with high earnings growth certainty and relatively high dividend support in the domestic market [4][9]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows a year-on-year increase of 28.7% in furniture retail sales in June, but demand has weakened since July due to the lack of new government subsidies [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector is witnessing a recovery, with Smoore's H1 2025 revenue expected to grow by 18% year-on-year, indicating stabilization in the vaping business [15][16]. - The paper and packaging industry is experiencing price stabilization, with expectations for a recovery in demand for white cardboard and cultural paper [17][18]. - The light industry and personal care sector is facing a downturn, but there are investment opportunities in leading brands [19][20]. - The toy sector, particularly Bubble Mart, is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 94% year-on-year increase in online sales of blind boxes in Q2 [21][22]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in Q3, driven by new policies in Vietnam promoting electric vehicle replacements [22][31]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Retail sales of furniture increased by 28.7% year-on-year in June, but demand has weakened since July due to subsidy issues [4][9]. - The overall real estate investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year in June, with residential construction area down by 4.3% [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - Smoore's H1 2025 revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the vaping market [15][16]. - The FDA's recent approvals for JUUL products suggest a positive trend in the U.S. compliance market [15][16]. Paper and Packaging Sector - Paper prices are stabilizing, with expectations for recovery in demand for specific paper types [17][18]. - The packaging sector is seeing improvements in profitability for metal packaging companies due to industry consolidation [17][18]. Light Industry and Personal Care - The sector is experiencing a downturn, but leading brands are still seen as investment opportunities [19][20]. - Online sales for personal care products have shown mixed results, with some categories facing increased competition [20][23]. Toy Sector - Bubble Mart is highlighted for its strong performance, with a 209% year-on-year increase in GMV [21][22]. - The overall toy market is benefiting from new operational models and IP advantages [21][22]. Two-Wheeler Market - The market is expected to rebound in Q3, with new policies in Vietnam promoting electric vehicle replacements [22][31]. - Leading companies in the sector are expected to show good growth in their mid-year reports [22][31].
思摩尔国际(06969.HK):雾化电子烟业务受益于全球监管趋严 期待HNB业务放量!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-19 11:00
Group 1 - The company forecasts a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, while net profit is expected to be between 443 million and 541 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 21% to 35% year-on-year [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and awards, higher distribution and sales expenses due to market expansion, and a significant rise in legal service costs [1] - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payment expenses, is projected to be between 688 million and 787 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1] Group 2 - The company's vaping business benefits from the global market's compliance development, with revenue growth driven by proprietary brand and enterprise customer business [1] - In the UK, a ban on disposable e-cigarettes has caused significant market disruption, leading to a shift in demand towards reusable e-cigarette products [1] - In the US, the FDA and CBP have intensified actions against illegal e-cigarettes, seizing over 135 million USD worth of products since 2023, which is expected to support the growth of the company's proprietary brand and enterprise customer business [1] Group 3 - British American Tobacco's Glo Hilo product, utilizing infrared quartz heating technology, is set for nationwide launch in Japan after successful trials, with a retail price of approximately 25 USD [2] - The company aims to revitalize market growth in Japan, which is a key strategic market for smoke-free products, as sales of smoke-free products have surpassed traditional cigarettes [2] - The HNB business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth starting in 2025, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.337 billion, 1.912 billion, and 2.760 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +2.57%, +43.01%, and +44.35% [2]
思摩尔国际(06969):雾化电子烟业务受益于全球监管趋严,期待HNB业务放量
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-18 07:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the tightening global regulations on vaping products, particularly in the e-cigarette sector, and anticipates significant growth in its Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) business [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client businesses [2][4]. - The decline in net profit, projected between 443 million to 541 million yuan, is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and a rise in marketing and legal costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue of 60.13 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, while net profit is projected to decline by 21% to 35% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payments, is estimated to be between 688 million to 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1]. Market Dynamics - The UK market is undergoing significant changes due to a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, which is expected to shift consumer demand towards reusable products [2]. - In the US, regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes have intensified, with over 135 million USD worth of illegal products seized since 2023, indicating a tightening market environment [2]. Growth Opportunities - The HNB business is anticipated to become a significant growth driver starting in 2026, contributing notably to revenue and profit [4]. - The company is enhancing its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, which is expected to sustain growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client segments [2][4].
思摩尔国际(06969.HK):H1雾化基本盘已现改善 期待HNB后续亮眼表现
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-17 18:59
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in its performance due to the favorable regulatory environment for vaping products and the growth of its heated non-combustible tobacco (HNB) business [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [1]. - The projected net profit for 2025H1 is between 443 million and 541 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline of 21% to 35%, with a midpoint decrease of 28% [1]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding stock incentive expenses, is expected to be between 688 million and 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4%, with a midpoint of -2.5% [1][2]. Business Analysis - The company’s vaping business is benefiting from increased enforcement against illegal products in the U.S., with the FDA and customs seizing nearly 34 million USD worth of illegal e-cigarettes [1]. - The U.S. Senate has approved a 200 million USD budget for the FDA to combat illegal vaping products, indicating a positive regulatory trend for the compliant market [1]. - In Europe, the UK has banned disposable e-cigarettes, leading to a potential increase in sales of refillable products, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [1]. - The HNB product Glo hilo is currently in pilot sales in Serbia and Sendai, Japan, and is expected to contribute positively in the future [1]. Profitability Outlook - The company’s profitability is expected to improve due to a higher proportion of high-margin vaping products and the ongoing development of the HNB business [2]. - The adjusted profit margin is anticipated to show improvement, driven by the enhanced product mix in the vaping segment [2]. - The company is positioned uniquely in the market as the only listed entity deeply integrated into the supply chain of major overseas tobacco groups, which provides a competitive edge [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.21, 0.42, and 0.58 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 94, 48, and 34 times [2].