证券研究报告 轻工行业2025年中期投资策略 把握新型烟草潮玩布局节奏，重视传统轻工结构性机会 分析师：赵中平 执业编号：S1130524050003 分析师：张杨桓 执业编号：S1130522090001 分析师：尹新悦 执业编号：S1130522080004 2025年6月26日 投资要点：把握新型烟草潮玩布局节奏，重视传统轻工结构性机会 整体布局思路：2025年H1与新消费相关板块领涨，而传统轻工板块估值普遍处于历史底部。展望25H2布局方向，新消费板块整体景气度依然 较高，仍值关注，而在目前估值分位普遍相对较高的情况下，需优选布局方向，把握布局节奏。一方面根据我们提出的新消费筛选框架（结 合行业壁垒、发展成熟度等指标）选择赛道成长确定性强与天花板较高的板块，另一方面结合目前相关细分板块、龙头标的的估值分位，建 议H2依然优选新型烟草+潮玩板块，其次轻工个护、AI眼镜、宠物食品等。此外，我们建议Q3起逐步增加估值处于低位的传统轻工板块布局， 重点建议关注红利型与底部反转型标的布局机遇。 ➢ 新消费板块：新消费可划分成功能价值线和情绪价值线，结合筛选框架，25H2分别首选新型烟草和潮玩板块，其次关注轻工个 ...

【思摩尔国际股价大跌，亿纬锂能计划减持】今日，思摩尔国际(06969.HK)股价大跌9.95%，收盘于 17.92港元/股，最新市值1109亿港元，成交额达12.8亿港元。 6月16日，股东亿纬锂能(300014)计划即日 起一年内，通过大宗交易、集中竞价等方式，减持思摩尔国际最多3.5%股本，约2.16亿股。减持后，亿 纬锂能将不再是控股股东，目前其持有思摩尔国际总股本30.73%。 按最新股价算，亿纬锂能持有的思 摩尔国际市值为340.8亿港元，本次计划减持市值为38.82亿港元。2024年6月27日，亿纬锂能曾授权董事 长择机减持不超3.5%股份，但未实施。 今年以来，思摩尔国际股价持续走强，6月5日达23.1港元阶段 性高点。亿纬锂能投资思摩尔国际超十年，2014年收购麦克韦尔50.1%股份，2020年思摩尔国际在港交 所上市，上市后9次现金分红，亿纬锂能获近20亿港元收益。 亿纬锂能正着力发展动力电池产业，投资 大，计划香港上市融资。因政策原因，2021年起思摩尔国际业绩下滑，2021 - 2024年营收和净利润均呈 下降趋势。 2024年2月，思摩尔国际股价最低至4.51港元/股。近年其未把握一次 ...

思摩尔国际(06969.HK)今日股价大跌9.95%，收盘于17.92港元/股，最新市值1109亿港元，今日成交额达 12.8亿港元。 亿纬锂能目前正在着力发展动力电池产业，投资颇大，正在计划香港上市寻求融资。 因为政策原因，2021年思摩尔国际的业绩受到了很大冲击，业绩一直在下滑。从2021年到2024年，思摩 尔国际的营收分别是137.55亿、121.45亿、112.03亿和117.99亿元，净利润则分别是52.87亿、25.10亿、 16.45亿和13.03亿元。 2024年2月份，思摩尔国际股价最低只有4.51港元/股。 思摩尔国际近些年没有把握住一次性电子烟机会，在一次性电子烟爆发时显得有些落寞，但近期主要销 售国禁止一次性电子烟销售，给该公司带来机会，思摩尔国际主要为国际大公司代工，这些国际大公司 在合规方面走在前列，思摩尔国际是合规的受益者。 去年下半年思摩尔国际雾化电子烟ODM业务有所改善，自主品牌收入占比提升至21%。欧洲一次性烟 禁令导致中国电子烟出口额同比下降9.4%，思摩尔国际HNB业务与英美烟草深度合作，英美烟草计划 2025年中推出新型HNB产品GloHilo，思摩尔为核心供应商。 ...

Group 1: Consumption Strategy and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth new consumption sectors, dividend defensive stocks, and traditional companies transitioning to new consumption [3][13] - High-growth new consumption opportunities include new tobacco products, beauty care, trendy toys, pet products, and tea beverages [3][13] - Dividend defensive stocks are prioritized due to unclear policy signals and ongoing domestic demand impacts, with a focus on white goods [3][13] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Midstream Consumption Tracking - In April, the domestic CPI remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.5% [4][14] - April's export growth reached 8.1% year-on-year, marking the highest since 2022, although it showed signs of slowing due to a decrease in home appliance exports [4][16] Group 3: Home Appliances - In April, the overall retail sales of home appliances increased by 21.8% online and 18.6% offline, with the national subsidy for 11 major categories growing by 18.2% [7][28] - Specific categories showed varied performance: air conditioners up 34.8%, refrigerators up 1.0%, and washing machines up 10.8% online [7][28][29] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The new tobacco sector is experiencing upward momentum, with clear growth trends in the HNB industry and potential market share gains for companies like Smoore International [7][30] - The trendy toy market remains robust, with GMV growth of 109% in April year-on-year, driven by new company entries and innovative operational strategies [7][30] Group 5: Textile and Apparel - The easing of US tariffs is expected to boost export and domestic demand, with a focus on new consumption and brands with unique advantages [7][33][37] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery in client confidence following tariff reductions, which may lead to increased orders and improved domestic factory utilization [7][37] Group 6: Social Services - The tea beverage sector is benefiting from improved same-store sales and competitive dynamics in the takeaway market, with expectations for further growth [7][35] - Hotel performance showed strong leisure demand during the May holiday, although business travel remains weak [7][35] Group 7: Retail and E-commerce - The competitive landscape in the takeaway market is evolving, with regulatory pressures on major platforms like Meituan and JD, although the overall competition remains intense [7][36] - Meituan's initiatives in instant retail and national subsidies are expected to impact JD's core categories significantly [7][38]