思摩尔国际 20260108 摘要 思摩尔国际正经历从电子雾化烟到 HNB 技术平台型公司的转型，与英美 烟草等合作，共同推进新型烟草产品，旨在应对传统卷烟市场下滑趋势。 全球传统卷烟市场持续萎缩，新型烟草被视为破局关键。菲莫国际率先 转型，英美烟草和日本烟草也设定了积极的新型烟草发展目标，预示行 业加速发展。 新型烟草主要分为雾化电子烟、加热不燃烧（HNB）和口含式产品。 HNB 和口含式产品更适合传统烟草巨头发展，雾化电子烟市场已被中国 企业主导。 思摩尔国际在 HNB 领域与英美烟草合作，新产品在日本、意大利和波兰 等市场市占率稳步提升，显示出良好的市场表现和增长潜力。 市场对思摩尔国际的估值相对保守，未来 1-2 年的增长弹性主要来自 HNB 业务的估值扩张，若 2026 年销量达 100 亿支以上，将带来质的 飞跃。 思摩尔国际旗下美国子公司专注于医疗雾化领域，已申请 FDA 认证，每 年投入大量研发费用，预计三年内将在收入和商业模式上实现落地，成 为新的增长点。 传统电子雾化烟市场企稳，预计未来保持 10%以上的年化增长率。思摩 尔国际具备传统电子雾化烟企稳、高潜力品类加热不燃烧以及新兴医疗 雾化 ...

Market Overview - U.S. private credit market risks are emerging, with significant exposure concentrated in large banks and insurance funds rather than smaller banks[6] - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in Q3 2025, with GDP growth reaching 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%[31] Stock Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,919 points, up 0.07%[15] - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 6,909.8 points and the Nasdaq up 0.6% to 23,561.8 points[9] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold and silver prices reached record highs due to U.S. interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks[28] - The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since early October, while the Chinese yuan approached the 7 yuan mark against the dollar[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply in the short term following strong GDP data, with the 2-year yield at 3.53%[31] - A $44 billion auction of 7-year Treasury bonds is scheduled, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[31] Sector Insights - The healthcare sector in Latin America showed strong performance, with the medical care sector rising by 2.48%[9] - The real estate sector in China is under focus, with government efforts to stabilize the market and support reasonable financing needs for real estate companies[31]

电子烟更新：再看 HNB 和思摩尔国际 20251221 核心成长盘业务。Glow Halo 在日本市场推出后，其市场份额迅速提升，到 2025 年 6 月已达到 1%，高端市场份额更达 2%。此外，在波兰和意大利等地 也取得了显著成绩，例如意大利仅销售一个月就占据 0.5%的市场份额。这些 成功验证了 Glow Halo 的市场潜力，并推动公司股价在 2025 年达到高点。 对于 HNB 行业及 Glow Halo 未来的发展预期如何？ HNB 行业整体增速稳定且呈现上升趋势，各大烟草巨头如英美、菲莫和日烟都 处于推新周期，预计到 2030 年整个行业渗透率将加速提升。基于这一预期， 以及 Glow Halo 在全球各大市场中的良好表现，有望实现 100 亿利润左右的 目标，从而使公司市值进一步提升。然而近期由于成长斜率存在分歧，公司股 价经历了一定幅度调整，但整体来看 HNB 行业依然具备良好的发展前景。 摘要 受益于 TA 法规调整和欧美市场规范，斯摩尔国际雾化烟业务在 2024 年底触底反弹，预计未来几年将保持稳定增长，为公司贡献约 400 亿人 民币市值。 英美烟草新型 HNB 产品 Glow Ha ...

大消费景气展望：基数与大促后增速放缓，期待明年政策 发力 20251221 摘要 2025 年 11 月份的消费数据延续了今年下半年以来的回落趋势，社会消费品零 售总额增速回落至 1.3%，创下年内新低。主要原因有三点：第一，双十一促 销政策提前推高了 10 月份部分商品的消费，对 11 月份造成了一定透支；第二， 以旧换新的退坡影响显著，家电类和汽车类增速分别跌至接近-20%和-9%左右； 第三，居民内生动力偏弱，房价二次下跌导致金融和居民消费贷款整体偏弱。 以旧换新政策对未来消费有什么影响？ 以旧换新政策的退坡可能会对明年上半年的消费产生拖累效应。补贴资金规模 预计维持在 3,000 亿左右，但补贴范围可能扩展到更多人工智能相关的新消费 品。然而，这可能导致现有补贴商品的资金支持力度降低。此外，以旧换新相 关商品已经促销一年多时间，其透支效应逐渐显现。预计明年上半年耐用品 （如家电、汽车等）的增速将持续低迷，对整体居民消费构成一定拖累。 服务消费与商品消费之间有什么差异？ 服务消费相比于商品消费表现出更强的内生动力。今年服务零售增速从年初的 4.9%提升至目前累计 5.4%，单月增速已突破 5.5%-6% ...

Group 1 - Smoore International (06969) shares increased by 4.6%, reaching HKD 12.96, with a trading volume of HKD 146 million [1] - The company announced a renewed procurement framework agreement with EVE Energy (300014) for battery products, effective from January 2026 to December 2028 [1] - The procurement agreement is driven by the continuous growth of the global electronic vaporization product market, indicating a potential increase in product orders [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities highlighted that the new procurement agreement is expected to enhance sales of Smoore's new tobacco products in new regions, particularly with the entry of international tobacco leaders' HNB products into mainstream markets [1] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a shift in European markets towards more profitable products like pod-based and open-system devices [1] - In the U.S., the enforcement of electronic cigarette regulations has strengthened, suggesting significant recovery potential for compliant product market share [1] Group 3 - Smoore International's diverse business segments, including vapor electronic cigarettes, HNB, vapor beauty, and vapor medical products, are entering a harvest phase [1] - The global launch of various products and multi-point catalysts are expected to drive future growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) has seen a stock increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 12.96, with a transaction volume of HKD 146 million. The company has renewed its procurement framework agreement with EVE Energy, effective from January 2026 to December 2028, for battery products, indicating a positive outlook for the electronic vaporization product market [1]. Group 1 - The renewed procurement agreement with EVE Energy is expected to support the continuous growth of Smoore's product orders due to the expanding global electronic vaporization market [1]. - The company is likely to benefit from the entry of major international tobacco players' heated non-combustible (HNB) products into mainstream markets, which may contribute to sales growth in new regions [1]. - In Europe, particularly in the UK, there is potential for a shift towards more profitable pod-based and open-system products, enhancing profitability [1]. Group 2 - The enforcement of electronic cigarette regulations in the United States is expected to restore market share for compliant products, providing significant recovery opportunities [1]. - Smoore's diverse business segments, including vapor electronic cigarettes, HNB, vapor beauty, and vapor medical products, are entering a harvest phase, with global launches and multi-point catalysts anticipated [1].

Core Viewpoint - China is the largest traditional tobacco market globally, while the US leads in the new tobacco market, with Japan and South Korea also holding significant shares in the new tobacco sector [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional tobacco market is gradually shrinking, while the new tobacco market is experiencing rapid growth. In 2020, the market size of heated not-burn (HNB) products surpassed that of electronic cigarettes, establishing itself as the new leader in the new tobacco sector [2] - The US market currently leads in vaporized electronic cigarettes but has a significant gap in the HNB market. The resolution between PMI and BAT is expected to accelerate the development of the HNB market [3] - The regulatory environment in Europe is tightening for vaporized products while remaining stable for HNB, which may allow HNB to gradually capture a larger market share [3] Group 2: Product Landscape - The transition from traditional cigarettes to new tobacco products is driven by a dual focus on flavor and health, with new tobacco products offering significant harm reduction advantages and more diverse taste options [2] - Major multinational tobacco companies are actively investing in new tobacco products, which is likely to increase the penetration rate of these products in the market [2] Group 3: Compliance and Regulation - The structure of tobacco products and their acceptance in different countries is largely determined by national policies and regulations. Taxation influences the differing policy attitudes towards traditional and new tobacco products, while health concerns shape the regulatory stance on various new tobacco products [4] - Strict regulations and weak enforcement may lead to unintended consequences, such as the growth of the illegal electronic cigarette market [4] Group 4: Brand Landscape - The traditional tobacco market is highly concentrated, dominated by brands like Marlboro, Winston, and Camel. In the new tobacco sector, PMI and BAT hold leading market shares, but changes in policy and company strategies may alter the brand landscape [5] Group 5: Industry Chain - The tobacco supply chain includes essential materials for both cigarette and electronic cigarette production, such as cigarette labels, rolling paper, and electronic cigarette components like lithium batteries and control chips. Key listed companies in this supply chain include Jinjia Co., Dongfeng Co., and others [8]

Core Viewpoint - The new oral tobacco-free products are expected to have a favorable tax environment and less intense competition compared to vaping products, leading to the highest gross margins among new tobacco categories, attracting significant interest from international tobacco companies [1] Group 1: New Oral Tobacco Products - New oral tobacco products combine characteristics of heated non-combustible (HNB) and vaping products, addressing traditional oral tobacco's limitations such as high acceptance barriers and storage challenges [1] - The invention of new oral tobacco products has sparked global popularity, with the potential to replace traditional products and attract a new customer base through diverse flavor offerings [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The market for new oral tobacco products has low entry barriers, but the market share remains concentrated among international tobacco companies, with no expected deterioration in market structure [2] - Factors supporting the current market structure include established customer bases and sales channels of traditional oral tobacco companies, a stable regulatory environment, and a short supply chain that enhances brand control over production [2] Group 3: Industry Catalysts - Philip Morris International's $16 billion acquisition of Swedish Match, the parent company of the leading brand ZYN, marks a significant direct investment in the new oral tobacco segment, reinforcing the industry's growth potential [3] - The FDA's approval of ZYN's 20 products for market release in January 2025, along with positive performance indicators from online distributors, further validates the industry's high growth outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a downward adjustment in the net profit forecast for Smoore International (06969) for 2025 by 20% to 1.05 billion yuan, while the 2026 net profit forecast is raised by 11% to 1.88 billion yuan, reflecting a strong performance driven by HNB product sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% [2] - Adjusted for stock incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.18 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - Quarterly net profit for 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q of 2025 was 200 million, 300 million, and 317 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -43.4%, +12.7%, and -16.4% [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Product Performance - The Glo Hilo brand is expanding steadily in Japan and Poland, with the company positioned as a leader in flavor restoration, heating speed, and brand image [3] - The company anticipates continued growth in the European vaping market, driven by differentiated compliant products amid regulatory changes [3] - The open-system self-owned brand is leading in global market share, with expectations of continued year-on-year growth in 3Q25 [3] Group 3: Cost Structure and R&D Investment - Short-term profitability is impacted by the allocation of stock incentive expenses, while R&D investments remain high [4] - The company expects slight pressure on gross margins in the short term due to increased orders from small clients in the European vaping market and initial sales of HNB heating devices [4] - The net profit and adjusted net profit for 3Q25 showed year-on-year changes of -16.4% and +4% respectively [4] Group 4: Long-term Growth Prospects - The company is optimistic about the global expansion of HNB products, which is expected to drive performance in the coming years [5] - The combination of drug-device complex generic drug development and innovative drug collaborations is anticipated to lead to commercialization in the vaping medical sector, opening up long-term growth opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - Smoore International is the largest electronic vaporizer supplier globally, with growth potential unlocked by its technology positioning in HNB (Heated Not Burn) products [3][6] - The company's core business is recovering, benefiting from regulatory shifts in the industry and increasing market share among major clients [3][6] - The HNB business is expected to see significant growth, with a projected annual growth rate in the double digits and a current global penetration rate of less than 6% [3][7] Summary by Sections Introduction - Smoore International leverages its R&D advantages to launch HNB products, marking a new phase in the industry [6][17] - The company has transitioned from a pure equipment supplier to a tobacco business model, opening new growth avenues [6][17] Core Business - The HNB segment is poised for accelerated development, with a low penetration rate and high barriers to entry, indicating substantial growth potential [7][28] - The collaboration with British American Tobacco to launch Glo Hilo combines both companies' strengths, enhancing market competitiveness [7][28] Performance Outlook - The revenue-sharing model for Glo Hilo is expected to yield significant profits, with projections estimating annual profits for Smoore's HNB business to reach 6-7 billion RMB if market penetration increases [8][9] - The U.S. market presents a significant opportunity, with potential market size increases if HNB penetration rises to 15% [8][37] Traditional Business - The U.S. vaping market is expected to grow from $19.81 billion in 2021 to $27.03 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 11% [9][20] - Regulatory changes in the U.S. are becoming more favorable, allowing for a recovery in the vaporizer business [9][20] Long-term Strategic Direction - The company is diversifying into medical and beauty vaporization, aiming for long-term growth across multiple sectors [10][19]